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This research partnership was funded by the former UK DFID, which merged with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) on September 2, 2020, to become the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO). The collaboration over the past eight years had three phases: phase 1 from March 2012 to March 2015, phase 2 from April 2015 to March 2017, and phase 3 from April 2017 to March 2020. Phase 4 started in April 2020 and will continue until March 2023.
Sugimoto and Larivière (2018) find that, using a 100-year citation window, the mean age of cited documents is about five to six years in the medical sciences, about seven years in the natural sciences and engineering, and about eight years in the social sciences.
While the modernization of monetary policymaking is consistent with the adoption of an inflation targeting regime, modernization does not, strictly speaking, assume such a regime. Steps toward modernization can be made within other monetary policy regimes. Moreover, the country-specific purpose of ongoing and prospective modernization ranges from gains to further price stabilization, reducing dollarization, facilitating regional integration, to better managing tradeoffs among inflation, growth, and exchange rate stability, among others.
Other IMF research on the transmission of monetary policy for a broader group of emerging market and developing economies supports the notion that transmission may be stronger than previously thought and is endogenous to the policy framework (Brandao-Marques and others 2020).
Short data samples and measurement errors in LICs may lead to attenuation bias (an underestimation of effects of transmission) when using regression in general (including local projections).
A large appetite for further investigation of the MTM in LICs remains. For example, further understanding the extent to which the transmission of monetary policy depends on and is influenced by features such as institutional frameworks, the level of development of financial structures, or the concentration of the banking system, would be useful future avenues of research.
In addition to models, an FPAS includes a set of procedures and tools to assist monetary policy decision making.
For a review of country experiences, see the background IMF policy paper, “Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries—Background Paper: Country Experiences” (IMF 2015a).
See Article IV Reports: (IMF 2018e, 2019a, 2019b, 2020b). In these papers, the authors have calibrated, for each country, a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations. For more information on the framework (besides the aforementioned references) and details on the model, see Malta, Martinez, and Tavares (2019).
In 2020, Nigerian authorities have been showing interest in the assistance that the IMF and the DFID can provide for technical assistance to implement gender budgeting in the country.
In addition to this work during Senegal’s 2018 Article IV Consultation, in January 2020, the IMF and the DFID have organized a large workshop on gender inequality issues in Dakar, Senegal, with the participation of the UN Women and representatives of Senegal’s Ministry of Finance.
The analytical work on Sierra Leone was featured in an August 2020 course on gender and macroeconomics at the Africa Training Institute.
Rwanda is a focus country in DFID’s development work. Besides IMF’s Selected Issues Paper (IMF 2017e) in the 2017 Article IV Consultation (“Staying the Role Model: Advancing Gender Equality In Rwanda”), which describes, among other things, how gender budgeting has emerged as one of Rwanda’s key policy tools, the DFID-IMF collaboration also organized a gender inequality conference in 2017.
As an example of tax policy to reduce gender inequality, the note “Women in the Labor Force: The Role of Fiscal Policies” (Fabrizio and others 2020) shows how removing tax provisions that discriminate against secondary earners can improve gender equality and boost economic growth.
This information can be found in www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/GD
Note that cross-country analyses on inequality have important measurement issues. First, for a broad country coverage, the Gini coefficients examined in the cited analyses are based on either income or consumption, the latter of which is relatively popular for LICs. Second, inequality estimates are rather sensitive to assumptions on uncertain factors such as capital gains and untaxed income. As discussed by The Economist (2019), Piketty, Saez, and Zucman (2018) and Auten and Splinter (2019) reached different degrees of the increase in inequality in the United States. Relatedly, Gini coefficient is only one aspect of the whole inequality spectrum. Other statistics summarizing different aspects of the distribution of economic resources, for instance income share of the top 10 percent, often do not move in the same direction as Gini coefficients do (Blotevogel and others 2020). Third, although this essay focuses on the Gini coefficients, there are many other measures of inequality including non-income ones such as education and financial access, respectively capturing important aspects that may be missed by the analysis on the income- or consumption-based Gini coefficients. Fourth, though related, inequality is different from poverty. If the growth outcome reaches everyone, but the rich receive a higher share, then higher inequality would appear together with lower poverty.
Using historical data, Furceri and others (2020) find that past pandemics were associated with an increase in inequality.
Cerra and others (2021) provide an extensive survey of the literature. Important contributions surveyed in the chapter include the classic Kuznets (1955) paper and many recent contributions including Banerjee and Duflo (2003), Lea and McGowan (2015) and Berg and Ostry (2017) among others. Ostry, Berg, and Tsangarides (2014) and Berg and others (2018) provide a contemporary literature reviews. Ostry, Loungani, and Berg (2019) highlight a key role played by political choices, in examining the relationship between inequality and growth.
See for instance, Persson and Tabellini (1994), Easterly (2007), Berg, Ostry, and Zettelmeyer (2012), Ostry, Berg, and Tsangarides (2014), Dabla-Norris and others (2015), Berg and Ostry (2017), and Berg and others (2018).
These trade-offs differ from their AE counterparts. In AEs, consumption taxation has qualitatively the same equity-efficiency trade-off, but the mechanism is quite different. In AEs, it is because poor people tend to spend a higher share of their income in consumption, which makes consumption taxation implicitly works as a regressive income tax. On the contrary, in LICs, it is driven by limited labor mobility which allows urban population to shift tax incidence to rural population by reducing demand. Meanwhile, in AEs, labor income taxation is usually estimated to be regressive because rich people obtain a large share of their income from capital. While in LICs, it is considered progressive because income taxation is primarily levied upon rich formal sector workers. The properties of these tax instruments in AEs are well documented by the literature, see for example Domeij and Heathcote (2004); see the analysis by Peralta-Alva and others (2019) for LICs.
Take the classic tax incidence analysis in public finance, for example. While a tax may be imposed on (say) producers de jure, if consumer demand is highly inelastic, through market interactions, producers are able to pass most of their tax incidence to consumers by raising prices.
See, for example, Winters, McCulloch and McKay (2004); Goldberg and Pavcnik (2007); and Harrison, McLaren, and McMillan (2011), and the references therein, for previous literature that tries to link globalization with growth and inequality.
The 14 aspects are trade in goods, trade in services, trade partner diversity, foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, international debt, international reserves, international income payments, trade regulations, trade taxes, tariffs trade agreements, investment restrictions, capital account openness, and international investment agreements.
It should be noted that these are not estimations based on panel data that track individuals across time. As a result, the identity of the people falling in each quantile may change across periods, causing potential compositional bias when interpreting distributional quantiles as indicators of what happens to “the rich” or to “the poor.” For example, a change that benefits the traded sector at the expense of the nontraded sector could make new people rich and formerly rich people poor.
The role that international partners can play is not directly discussed here but would be an important aspect to be discussed in future studies, examining the activities and policies of international development partners. Recent studies conducted under the DFID-IMF collaboration document evidence that multilateral development banks played key roles in catalyzing private financial flows (Broccolini and others 2020) and providing financing to borrowers with high credit risks (Gurara, Presbitero, and Sarmiento 2020), both of which have distributional implications.
One reason that globalization creates public financing challenges is by universal tariff reduction, which used to be the primary source of tax revenue for LICs (IMF 2011).
Several comprehensive surveys of these issues include Burgess and Stern (1993), IMF (2011), Keen (2012), and Besley and Persson (2013).
The authors note that growth and diversification can also be led by common factors (such as transition from a planned economy, or political reforms. However, economists are also able to discern the effects of diversification on growth. For example, Dutt, Mihov, and Van Zandt (2008) demonstrate that export diversification correlates with subsequent GDP growth.
For more cases, such as Mexico and Indonesia, the authors refer to Cherif and Hasanov (2016).