Appendix I. Natural Hazards Impacting Caribbean Region, 1988–2012
Natural Hazards Impacting Caribbean Region, 1988–2012
Natural Hazards Impacting Caribbean Region, 1988–2012
| Hazard | Year | Magnitude | Estimated Cost | Countries Affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane Gilbert | 1988 | Category 5 | US$ 1.1 billion, 65% of GDP | Jamaica |
| Hurricane Hugo | 1989 | Category 5 | US$ 3.6 billion, | Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, |
| 200% of GDP for Montserrat | Montserrat, British Virgin Islands | |||
| Tropical storm Debby | 1994 | n.a. | US$ 79 million, 18% of GDP | St. Lucia |
| Hurricanes Iris/Marilyn/Luis | 1995 | Iris (cat. 3-4) | US$ 700 million | Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, |
| Marylin (cat 1) | Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis | |||
| Luis (cat. 3) | ||||
| Hurricane Georges | 1998 | Category 3 | US$ 450 million (not including | Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, St. Kitts |
| Dominica) | and Nevis | |||
| Hurricane Floyd | 1999 | Category 4 | n.a. | The Bahamas |
| Hurricane Lenny | 1999 | Category 4-5 | US$ 274 million | Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, |
| Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, | ||||
| St. Vincent and the Grenadines | ||||
| Tropical Storm Lili | 2002 | n.a. | US$ 7.8 million | Grenada |
| US$ 9.6 million | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | |||
| Tropical storm Earl | 2004 | n.a. | n.a. | St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada |
| Hurricanes Charley/ | 2004 | Charley/Frances (cat. 4) | US$ 150 million | The Bahamas, Cayman Islands, Grenada, |
| Frances/Ivan/Jeanne | Ivan (cat. 5) | Jamaica, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the | ||
| Jeanne (cat. 4) | Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago | |||
| Hurricane Emily | Category 5 | US$ 75.5 million | Grenada | |
| Hurricane Dean | 2007 | Category 5 | US$ 90 million (infrastructure for | Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Jamaica, |
| Dominica and Belize) | St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines | |||
| Tropical storms Alma/Arthur | 2008 | n.a. | US$ 26.1 million | Belize |
| Tropical storm Fay, | 2008 | Gustav (cat. 1) | US$ 211 million (estimated for | The Bahamas, Cayman Islands, Haiti, |
| Tropical storms/hurricanes | Hanna (cat. 1) | Jamaica only) | Jamaica, Turks and Caicos Islands | |
| Gustave/Hanna | Ike (cat. 4) | |||
| Hurricane Otto | 2010 | Category 1 | US$ 25.5 million (52% for road | British Virgin Islands |
| transport sector) | ||||
| Hurricane Tomas | 2010 | Category 2 | US$ 336 million, 43% of GDP | St. Lucia |
| US$ 49.2 million, 10.5% of GDP | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | |||
| Hurricane Irene | 2011 | Category 3 | US$ 40 million | The Bahamas |
| Hurricane Ophelia | 2011 | Category 1 | US$ 14.4 million (public | Dominica |
| infrastructure damage) | ||||
| Tropical storm Helene | 2012 | n.a. | US$ 17 million | Trinidad and Tobago |
| Tropical storm/hurricane | 2012 | Category 1 | n.a. (Jamaica, Dominica) | Trinidad and Tobago, Dominica, Haiti |
| Isaac | US$ 250 million (Haiti) | |||
| Hurricane Sandy | 2012 | Category 1-2 | US$ 55 million (Jamaica) | Jamaica, Haiti, The Bahamas |
| US$ 100 million (Haiti) | ||||
| US$ 300 million (Bahamas) | ||||
| Other events | ||||
| Volcano | From 1995 | - | Negative growth: -7.6% to -20.2% | Montserrat |
| Landslides | 2002 | - | US$ 116 million | Jamaica |
| Floods | Floods | - | US$ 2.6 billion | Guyana |
| Drought | 1997 | - | US$ 29 million | Guyana |
| Drought | 2010 | - | US$ 14.7 million | Guyana |
| Earthquake | 2010 | 7.3 Richter scale | US$ 8 billion | Haiti |
Natural Hazards Impacting Caribbean Region, 1988–2012
| Hazard | Year | Magnitude | Estimated Cost | Countries Affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane Gilbert | 1988 | Category 5 | US$ 1.1 billion, 65% of GDP | Jamaica |
| Hurricane Hugo | 1989 | Category 5 | US$ 3.6 billion, | Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, |
| 200% of GDP for Montserrat | Montserrat, British Virgin Islands | |||
| Tropical storm Debby | 1994 | n.a. | US$ 79 million, 18% of GDP | St. Lucia |
| Hurricanes Iris/Marilyn/Luis | 1995 | Iris (cat. 3-4) | US$ 700 million | Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, |
| Marylin (cat 1) | Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis | |||
| Luis (cat. 3) | ||||
| Hurricane Georges | 1998 | Category 3 | US$ 450 million (not including | Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, St. Kitts |
| Dominica) | and Nevis | |||
| Hurricane Floyd | 1999 | Category 4 | n.a. | The Bahamas |
| Hurricane Lenny | 1999 | Category 4-5 | US$ 274 million | Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, |
| Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, | ||||
| St. Vincent and the Grenadines | ||||
| Tropical Storm Lili | 2002 | n.a. | US$ 7.8 million | Grenada |
| US$ 9.6 million | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | |||
| Tropical storm Earl | 2004 | n.a. | n.a. | St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada |
| Hurricanes Charley/ | 2004 | Charley/Frances (cat. 4) | US$ 150 million | The Bahamas, Cayman Islands, Grenada, |
| Frances/Ivan/Jeanne | Ivan (cat. 5) | Jamaica, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the | ||
| Jeanne (cat. 4) | Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago | |||
| Hurricane Emily | Category 5 | US$ 75.5 million | Grenada | |
| Hurricane Dean | 2007 | Category 5 | US$ 90 million (infrastructure for | Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Jamaica, |
| Dominica and Belize) | St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines | |||
| Tropical storms Alma/Arthur | 2008 | n.a. | US$ 26.1 million | Belize |
| Tropical storm Fay, | 2008 | Gustav (cat. 1) | US$ 211 million (estimated for | The Bahamas, Cayman Islands, Haiti, |
| Tropical storms/hurricanes | Hanna (cat. 1) | Jamaica only) | Jamaica, Turks and Caicos Islands | |
| Gustave/Hanna | Ike (cat. 4) | |||
| Hurricane Otto | 2010 | Category 1 | US$ 25.5 million (52% for road | British Virgin Islands |
| transport sector) | ||||
| Hurricane Tomas | 2010 | Category 2 | US$ 336 million, 43% of GDP | St. Lucia |
| US$ 49.2 million, 10.5% of GDP | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | |||
| Hurricane Irene | 2011 | Category 3 | US$ 40 million | The Bahamas |
| Hurricane Ophelia | 2011 | Category 1 | US$ 14.4 million (public | Dominica |
| infrastructure damage) | ||||
| Tropical storm Helene | 2012 | n.a. | US$ 17 million | Trinidad and Tobago |
| Tropical storm/hurricane | 2012 | Category 1 | n.a. (Jamaica, Dominica) | Trinidad and Tobago, Dominica, Haiti |
| Isaac | US$ 250 million (Haiti) | |||
| Hurricane Sandy | 2012 | Category 1-2 | US$ 55 million (Jamaica) | Jamaica, Haiti, The Bahamas |
| US$ 100 million (Haiti) | ||||
| US$ 300 million (Bahamas) | ||||
| Other events | ||||
| Volcano | From 1995 | - | Negative growth: -7.6% to -20.2% | Montserrat |
| Landslides | 2002 | - | US$ 116 million | Jamaica |
| Floods | Floods | - | US$ 2.6 billion | Guyana |
| Drought | 1997 | - | US$ 29 million | Guyana |
| Drought | 2010 | - | US$ 14.7 million | Guyana |
| Earthquake | 2010 | 7.3 Richter scale | US$ 8 billion | Haiti |
Appendix II. Survey Results
Survey Results
Yes, the plan includes only priorities and/or projects that can realistically be accommodated within the existing budget constraints
As part of BD/note to BS: as part of the budget statement/note to the budget statement; As part of DBS: as part of the debt management strategy.
Survey Results
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Yes, the plan includes only priorities and/or projects that can realistically be accommodated within the existing budget constraints
As part of BD/note to BS: as part of the budget statement/note to the budget statement; As part of DBS: as part of the debt management strategy.
Survey Results
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Yes, the plan includes only priorities and/or projects that can realistically be accommodated within the existing budget constraints
As part of BD/note to BS: as part of the budget statement/note to the budget statement; As part of DBS: as part of the debt management strategy.
References
Alleyne, Trevorg, İnci Ötker, Uma Ramakrishnan, and Krishna Srivivasan (eds.). 2017. “Unleashing Growth and Strengthening Resilience in the Caribbean.” Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
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Caribbean Development Bank. 2014. “Public-Private Partnerships in the Caribbean: Building on Early Lessons.” Caribbean Development Bank, St. Michael, Barbados.
Caribbean Development Bank. 2017a. “Jamaica Highway 2000, Case Study.” Caribbean Development Bank, St. Michael, Barbados.
Caribbean Development Bank. 2017b. “Caribbean Public Private Partnership (PPP) Toolkit.” Caribbean Development Bank, St. Michael, Barbados.
European PPP Expertise Centre. 2014. “Establishing and Reforming PPP Units: Analysis of EPEC Member PPP Units and Lessons Learnt.” European PPP Expertise Centre, Luxembourg.
The Economist Intelligence Unit. 2017. “Infrascope Index.” https://infrascope.eiu.com/
Flyvbjerg, Bent, Mette K. Skamris Holm, and Søren L. Buhl. 2005. “How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Work Projects? The Case of Transportation.” Journal of the American Planning Association 71 (2): 131–46.
Guasch, J. Luis. 2004. Granting and Renegotiating Infrastructure Concessions: Doing It Right. Washington, DC: The World Bank Institute.
International Federation of Accountants. 2017. “Accrual Practices and Reform Expectations in the Caribbean.” International Federation of Accountants, New York.
International Monetary Fund. 2013a. “Caribbean Small States: Challenges of High Debt and Low Growth.” International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
International Monetary Fund. 2013b. “Macroeconomic Issues in Small States and Implications for Fund Engagement.” International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
International Monetary Fund. 2014a. “Staff Guidance Note on the Fund’s Engagement with Small Developing States.” IMF Policy Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
International Monetary Fund. 2014b. Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014). International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
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International Monetary Fund. 2016. “Small States’ Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change—Role for the IMF.” IMF Policy Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
International Monetary Fund. 2017. “FAD Investment and Capital Stock Database 2017: Manual & FAQ—Estimating Public, Private, and PPP Capital Stock.” International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
International Monetary Fund. 2019. “Curbing Corruption.” In Fiscal Monitor. Washington, DC, April.
Irwin, Tim, Samah Mazraani, and Sandeep Saxena. 2018. “How to Control the Costs of Public-Private Partnerships.” How-to Note 18/04, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
National Audit Office. 2015. “The Choice of Finance for Capital Investment.” National Audit Office, London, England.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 2010. “Dedicated Public-Private Partnership Units: A Survey of Institutional and Governance Structures.” Paris.
Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility. 2016. “Climate Risks and Resilience in Infrastructure PPPs: Issues to be Considered.” Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility, Washington, DC.
Ram, Justin, Damien Reeves, and Ronald James. 2018. “Air Transport Competitiveness and Connectivity.” CDB Working Paper 18/02, Caribbean Development Bank, St. Michael, Barbados.
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Sayegh, Amanda, Jason Harris, Roderick O’Mahony, Sami Yläoutinen, and John Zohrab. 2017. “Georgia Fiscal Transparency Evaluation.” International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
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Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Curaçao, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and Turks and Caicos. Data is not available for Anguilla, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Curaçao, Montserrat, and Turks and Caicos.
This paper uses the IMF definition of small states (IMF Board paper, 2013a,b) to define comparator groups, as most the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Center member countries are included in this category, except Jamaica and Haiti. Comparator groups include, for Pacific countries, Fiji, Kiribati, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu; and for SSA countries, Cabo Verde, Comoros, Mauritius, São Tomé and Príncipe, Seychelles, and Swaziland.
PPPs can also consist of a joint venture company that is partly owned by a public authority and partly owned by a private company or private investors. In the Caribbean region, the Old Harbor Combined Cycle Power Station project signed in 2017 in Jamaica is an example of an institutional PPP.
PPPs exclude simple joint ventures, the sale of public assets or of public company shares—which are part of a privatization process—and arrangements in which the private partner is not required to finance investment.
Although we consider PPPs as public investment project, they are typically not properly reported in fiscal data, notably in countries with cash-based accounting as most Caribbean countries (see IMF 2017).
These arrangements are not further discussed in this paper as they are not considered PPPs.
The public capital stock is the accumulated value of public investment over time, adjusted for depreciation (which varies by income group and over time), and is the principal input into the production of public infrastructure (IMF 2015).
Perception of infrastructure quality: measured by an index generated by the World Economic Forum, based on an executive opinion survey, conducted each year in more than 140 countries. Participants are asked to assess general infrastructure, such as transport, telecommunications, and energy, by ranking these on a quantitative scale (from 1 to 7).
Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, British Virgin Islands, Curacao, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Kitts and Nevis (which responded separately), Surinam, and Turks and Caicos participated in the survey.
A PPP is said to provide value if, compared to traditionally procured projects, it can provide higher-quality public infrastructure or services for the same cost, or to provide the same quality of public infrastructure or services at a lower cost.
In the United Kingdom, the cost of capital for PPPs was between 2 and 3.75 percentage points higher than for government-funded projects, and 3.5 to 7 percentage points higher for user-funded projects (National Audit Office 2015).
South Africa and Cyprus are prominent examples of a strong gateway process.
In 2014, Jamaica adopted a revised fiscal rule that sets a floor on the overall balance of the public sector, to bring debt down to 60 percent of GDP or below by 2025/2026 which includes a limit of 3 percent of GDP on the total loan value of all new user-funded PPPs on a cumulative basis. For government-funded PPPs, the full construction cost of the project is recorded as a government liability within public debt (following the IPSAS 32 accounting standards) and is thus covered directly by the fiscal rule. Fully user-funded PPPs with only minimal fiscal risks, as assessed independently by the Office of the Account General, could be exempted from the PPP ceiling.