Front Matter

Front Matter Page

European Department

Front Matter Page

Copyright ©2018

International Monetary Fund

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Names: Atoyan, Ruben. | Benedek, Dora. | Cabezon, Ezequiel. | Cipollone, Giuseppe. | Miniane, Jacques. | Nguyen, Nhu. | Petri, Martin. | Reinke, Jens. | Roaf, James. | International Monetary Fund. | International Monetary Fund. European Department.

Title: Public Infrastructure in the Western Balkans: Shifting Gears—Opportunities and Challenges/ prepared by Ruben Atoyan, Dora Benedek, Ezequiel Cabezon, Giuseppe Cipollone, Jacques Miniane, Nhu Nguyen, Martin Petri, Jens Reinke, and James Roaf.

Description: Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2017. | At head of title: European Department. | Includes bibliographical references. Identifiers: ISBN 978-1-48433-718-9 (paper) Subjects: Growth. | Infrastructure | Europe—Economic Conditions. | Emerging Markets. Classification: HC.xxx.xxxx] 2017

pages ; cm. – (European departmental paper series)

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Contents

  • Acknowledgments

  • 1. Introduction

  • 2. Public Infrastructure in the Western Balkans: The Historical Background

  • 3. Quantifying the Region’s Infrastructure Gaps

  • 4. Fiscal Space and Sustainability

  • 5. External Financing, Role of Donors, and International Financial Institutions

  • 6. Public-Private Partnerships

  • 7. Economic Dividends of Infrastructure Development: Quantitative Evidence

  • 8. Policy Issues and Recommendations

  • Annex I. Measuring Infrastructure Gaps

  • Annex II. Regression Results

  • Annex III. General Equilibirum Model

  • References

  • Boxes

    • 2.1. Western Balkans—Regional Initiatives

    • 3.1. 2016 Public Investment Management Assessment—Key Findings

    • 3.2. Evidence from Large Infrastructure Projects

    • 5.1. Disapora Bonds

    • 5.2. China’s Involvement in the Western Balkans

    • 6.1. The PPP Experience for the Development of the Tirana International Airport

  • Figures

    • 1.1. Income Convergence

    • 2.1. Public Capital Stock

    • 2.2. Public Infrastructure: Quantity versus Quality

    • 3.1. Public Infrastructure Gaps

    • 3.2. Public Infrastructure Gaps by Sector and Region

    • 3.3. Europe: Aggregate Infrastructure Gap Index, 2015

    • 3.4. Public Investment Rates and Captial Stocks

    • 3.5. Top 15 Projects in National Single Project Pipelines

    • 3.6. Estimated Impact of Implementing Priority Projects

    • 3.7. Public Investment Management Assessment

    • 3.8. Corridor XI

    • 4.1. Fiscal Space and Infrastructure Gaps

    • 4.2. Capital Budget Underexecution, 2015–16

    • 4.3. Structure of Budgetary Spending and Tax Burden

    • 4.4. Structure of Total Revenues (Percent of GDP), 2015

    • 4.5. Tax Efficiency

    • 5.1. Eurobond Issuance in Western Balkans

    • 5.2. International Financial Institutions Financing

    • 5.3. China’s Involvement in the Western Balkans

    • 6.1. Types of Public-Private Partnership Agreements

    • 6.2. PPP Initiatives in Western Balkans

    • 7.1. Simulated Surge in Public Investment

    • 7.2. Effect of Reducing Public Infrastructure Gaps: Model-Based Simulations, Improved Policies Scenarios

    • 7.3. Effect of Reducing Public Infrastructure Gaps: Model-Based Simulations, Alternative Financing Scenarios

    • 7.4. Infrastructure-Income Link

    • 7.5. Effect of Reducing Public Infrastructure Gaps: Regression-Based Simulation

  • Tables

    • 7.1. Implied Effects of Public Investment Shock on GDP Level

    • AII.1. Dependent variable: Real GDP Growth per Capita

    • AII.2. Dependent variable: Income gap relative to EU

Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to Jörg Decressin, Vladimir Klyuev, Jesmin Rahman, Anita Tuladhar, Masashi Saito, Daniel Gurara, Alessandro Cantelmo, Suhaib Kebhaj, Devin D’Angelo, Johann Seiwald, and Yuan Xiao for their comments and suggestions on drafts of the chapters. We would also like to thank participants of the 2017 Annual Meetings Seminar on Public Infrastructure in the Western Balkans, the 2017 Public Investment Conference in Zagreb, and IMF seminars for fruitful discussions and useful comments.

The authors would also like to thank Ouafia Akil for formatting the papers. Thanks are also due Joseph Procopio of the Communications Department for leading the editorial and production process.

Public Infrastructure in the Western Balkans: Opportunities and Challenges
Author: Mr. Ruben V Atoyan, Ms. Dora Benedek, Ezequiel Cabezon, Mr. Giuseppe Cipollone, Mr. Jacques A Miniane, Ms. Nhu Nguyen, Mr. Martin Petri, Mr. Jens Reinke, and Mr. James Roaf