Cover Staff Climate Notes
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Getting on Track to Net Zero: Accelerating a Global Just Transition in This Decade
Author:
Mr. Simon Black
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Jean Chateau
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Ms. Florence Jaumotte null

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Ian W.H. Parry null

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Gregor Schwerhoff
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Sneha D Thube
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Karlygash Zhunussova
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Series:
Staff Climate Notes
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2022: Issue 010
Language:
English
Publication Date:
04 Nov 2022
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400223877.066
ISBN:
9798400223877
ISSN:
2789-0600
Pages:
38
Keywords:
Climate change mitigation; ambition gap; policy gap; mitigation pledges; differentiated responsibilities; abatement costs; welfare costs; GDP; burden sharing; carbon pricing; climate finance; IMF staff climate note; abatement cost; welfare cost; climate benefit; IMF staff climate Note 2022/010; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate change; Climate policy; Global; Africa; Eastern Europe; East Asia; Caribbean
Legal-disclaimer:
The IMF Notes Series aims to quickly disseminate succinct IMF analysis on critical economic issues to member countries and the broader policy community. The IMF Staff Climate Notes provide analysis related to the impact of climate change on macroeconomic and financial stability, including on mitigation, adaptation, and transition. The views expressed in IMF Staff Climate Notes are those of the author(s), although they do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, or its Executive Board, or its management.
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To contain global warming to between 2°C and 1.5°C, global greenhouse gas emissions must be cut 25 to 50 percent below 2019 levels by 2030. Even if fully achieved, current country pledges would cut global emissions by just 11 percent. This Note presents illustrative options for closing this ambition gap equitably and discusses their economic impacts across countries. Options exist to accelerate a global just transition in this decade, involving greater emission reductions by high-income countries and climate finance, but further delays in climate action would put 1.5°C beyond reach. Global abatement costs remain low under 2°C-consistent scenarios, with burdens rising with income levels. With efficient policies of carbon pricing with productive revenue use, welfare costs become negative when including domestic environmental co-benefits, before even counting climate benefits. GDP effects from global decarbonization remain uncertain, but modeling suggests they exceed abatement costs especially for carbon-intensive and fossil-fuel-exporting countries. Ratcheting up climate finance can help make global decarbonization efforts more progressive.
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Cover Staff Climate Notes
Staff Climate Notes
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund