Front Matter Page

SPILLOVERS

NOTES

SPILLOVERS FROM US GOVERNMENT SPENDING SHOCKS

Impact on External Positions

Adina Popescu and Ippei Shibata

October 2017 10

SPILLOVER TASK FORCE | INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Front Matter Page

© 2017 International Monetary Fund

Cover design: IMF Multimedia Services

Composition: Katy Whipple

Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Joint Bank-Fund Library

Names: Popescu, Adina. | Shibata, Ippei. | International Monetary Fund. Spillover Task Force.

Title: Spillovers from US Government spending shocks : impact on external positions / Adina Popescu and Ippei Shibata.

Other titles: Spillover notes (International Monetary Fund) ; 10.

Description: [Washington, DC] : Spillover Task Force, International Monetary Fund, 2017. | Spillover notes / International Monetary Fund ; 10 | October 2017. | Includes bibliographical references.

Identifiers: ISBN 9781484320259

Subjects: LCSH: Government spending policy—United States. | United States—Appropriations and expenditures. | Foreign exchange rates--United States. | Balance of trade--United States.

Classification: LCC HJ7537.P66 2017

ISBN: 978-1-48432-025-9 (paper)

DISCLAIMER: Spillover Notes present detailed IMF work on spillover issues. The views expressed in Spillover Notes are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

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Contents

  • Spillovers from us Government Spending Shocks: Impact on External Positions
    • Introduction
    • Effects of U.S. Fiscal Shocks: What Do We Know?
    • Effects of US Fiscal Spending Shocks: Results from a Novel Identification
    • Conclusions
  • Annex
    • Annex 1. Empirical Approach for the Identification of Anticipated US Fiscal Spending Shocks
    • Annex 2. Empirical Approach for the Panel Vector Autoregression
    • Annex 3. Data Description
  • References
Spillovers from US Government Spending Shocks: Impact on External Positions
Author: Ms. Adina Popescu and Mr. Ippei Shibata