Back Matter
  • 1 https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396, International Monetary Fund

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Annex 1. Data Sources

Annex Table 1.1.

Country Coverage

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We are grateful to Chanpheng Fizzarotti, Ava Hong, and Jeffrey Lam (all of the IMF’s Research Department) for excellent research assistance. The note benefited from useful discussions with Michal Andrle, Helge Berger, Oya Celasun, Davide Furceri, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti (all Research Department), and Kadir Tanyeri. In addition, we also thank participants at the European Central Bank’s Spillover Workshop, and the members of the IMF Spillover Task Force, for their insightful comments.

1

An extended version of this note will be issued as an IMF Working Paper—see Blagrave and Vesperoni (forthcoming). The note looks at China’s slowdown, but it does not disentangle the impact of rebalancing per se. For a discussion of rebalancing, see Dizioli, Hunt and Maliszewski (forthcoming), Hong, Liao, and Seneviratne (2016), and IMF (2016).

2

See the 2011 China Article IV Report (IMF 2011) for a more thorough discussion of China’s post-crisis growth.

3

These stylized facts are taken from our sample of 46 countries.

4

Robustness checks, including the addition of other control variables such as emerging-market growth, global domestic demand growth, and the inclusion of several lags of the dependent and independent variables, as well as the use of time fixed effects (by extending this analysis to a panel context), have little impact on the pattern, size, and variances of the shocks.

5

Specifically, this is variable FFD_DVApSH from the TiVA database, which corresponds to a given country’s value added embodied in China’s final demand, as a share of all of that country’s foreign value added embodied in the demand of all its partner countries. Since TiVA data are only available periodically, and until 2011, we interpolate for missing years and extrapolate using 2011 values for periods beyond 2011:Q4.

6

The baseline specification includes only one lag (p = 1), but results are robust to the inclusion of additional lags, and alternate orderings in the identification scheme.

7

To consider level effects of a 1 percent shock to the level of demand in China, we scale up the one quarter shock to China’s growth rate presented in Figure 12.

8

These effects are not modeled here, but the impact of China’s slowdown on commodity prices is investigated in Kolerus, N’Diaye, and Saborowski (2016).

10

Data from the WEO baseline are used to construct an export-intensity-adjusted China demand shock in the baseline. An alternative exercise, in which the naive baseline forecast is zero export-intensity-adjusted China demand shock (that is, China growth at the sample’s historical average) yields slightly larger effects of China’s slowdown—which is larger—on trade.

11

The selection of this time period takes into account the analysis of China’s shocks presented in “Estimation of the Panel Autoregression,” which shows that the sharpest slowdown in China’s final demand has taken place since mid-2013. Similar analysis of longer time periods (beginning in 2013:Q1 or 2012:Q1) would not change the qualitative results, but could result in slightly smaller average export growth-rate impacts (albeit over a longer time period) given that China demand shocks are estimated to have been smaller in 2012 and early 2013.

12

Concretely, starting at time t = 0, the unconditional forecasts for periods t = 1, 2, …, T would use information only available up to time 0. The conditional forecast would also use this information set, but would be augmented with actual data only on the China shocks in periods t = 1, 2, …, T.

13

Although only the impact on regional aggregates is shown, individual country results for each of the 46 members of our sample are available from the authors upon request.

Spillover Implications of China's Slowdown for International Trade
Author: Patrick Blagrave and Mr. Esteban Vesperoni