Front Matter Page
SPILLOVER NOTES
THE SPILLOVER EFFECTS
of Russia’s Economic Slowdown on Neighboring Countries
Ara Stepanyan, Agustin Roitman, Gohar Minasyan, Dragana Ostojic, and Natan Epstein
SPILLOVER TASK FORCE | INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
3 NOVEMBER 2015
Front Matter Page
European Department and Middle East and Central Asia Department
The Spillover Effects of Russia’s Economic Slowdown on Neighboring Countries
Prepared by Ara Stepanyan and Agustin Roitman (EUR), and Gohar Minasyan, Dragana Ostojic, and Natan Epstein (MCD)
Departmental Paper
International Monetary Fund
Front Matter Page
Copyright © 2015
International Monetary Fund
Catalog-in-Publication Data
The Spillover Effects of Russia’s Economic Slowdown on Neighboring Countries / Prepared by Ara Stepanyan and Agustin Roitman (EUR), and Gohar Minasyan, Dragana Ostojic, and Natan Epstein (MCD). – Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2015.
pages ; cm – (report)
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN: [….]
1. Spillover Effects 2. Monetary Policy 3. Emerging Markets 4. Exchange rates
I. Stepanyan, Ara, Agustin Roitman, Gohar Minasyan, Dragana Ostojic, and Natan Epstein. II. International Monetary Fund. IV. Title: The Spillover Effects of Russia’s Economic Slowdown on Neighboring Countries
ISBN: 978-1-47554-143-4 (paper)
This report presents research by IMF staff on issues of policy interest. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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Acknowledgments
This paper was prepared by Ara Stepanyan and Agustin Roitman (EUR) and Gohar Minasyan, Dragana Ostojic, and Natan Epstein (MCD). We are grateful to the support from Gilda Ordonez-Baric, Xuan Tu (EUR), and Soledad Feal-Zubimendi (MCD).
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Developments in Russia
3. Channels of Spillovers to Neighboring Countries
Trade Channel
Remittances Channel
Financial Channel
4. Impact So Far on the Affected Countries and Potential Further Shock
Growth
5. Policy Responses in CIS countries
References
Box
1. Simulation of Impact of a Downside Scenario for Russia
Figures
1. Europe and CCA Links with Russia, 2014 (or the latest available)
2. Exchange Rate and Sovereign Spreads, 2014-2015
3. CIS and CESEE: Financial Soundness
4. Fiscal Response in CIS countries