Title Page
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
STRATEGY, POLICY, AND REVIEW DEPARTMENT
GUIDANCE NOTE
How to Implement Strategic Foresight (and Why)
Prepared by Alberto Behar and Sandile Hlatshwayo
Copyright Page
Copyright ©2021 International Monetary Fund
Cataloging-in-Publication Data IMF Library
Names: Behar, Alberto, 1979-, author. | Hlatshwayo, Sandile, author. | International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, issuing body. | International Monetary Fund, publisher.
Title: How to implement strategic foresight (and why) / prepared by Alberto Behar and Sandile Hlatshwayo.
Other titles: Guidance note (International Monetary Fund).
Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2021. | Guidance note. | Includes bibliographical references.
Identifiers: ISBN 9781513593869 (paper) | 9781616356026 (ePub) | 9781616356262 (WebPDF)
Subjects: LCSH: Strategic planning. | Forecasting. | Risk management.
Classification: LCC HD30.28.B4 2021
The views expressed in this note belong solely to the authors. Nothing contained in this note should be reported as representing the views of the organizations, member governments, or any other entity mentioned herein.
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Contents
Executive Summary
Acronyms and Abbreviations
Introduction
Strategic Foresight
Why Use Strategic Foresight?
Foresight Approaches
Scenario Planning
Applications of Scenario Planning at the IMF for Various Objectives
The Scenario Planning Process
Policy Gaming
Policy Games at the IMF
Matrix Policy Gaming: Design and Game Play
Conclusion
References
BOXES
Box 1. The Future is Unpredictable
Box 2. Five Long-Term Trends and Uncertainties Used for Scenario Planning
Box 3. How One Might Do Scenario Planning Sprints Online
Box 4. Characteristics of Good Scenarios
Box 5. Deductive Method
Box 6. Inductive Method
Box 7. Lessons from IMF Policy Games
Box 8. Example of a Hypothetical Starting Shock from a Vaccine Policy Game
FIGURES
Figure 1. Recent Strategic Foresight Report
Figure 2. 2017 Scenarios
Figure 3. Brynen and Others’ Matrix Game Toolkit
TABLES
Table 1. Player’s Argument Process and Example as Recorded During Workshop
Table 2. Example of Likelihoods and Required Dice Totals for Success
Executive Summary
Strategic foresight is the systematic exploration of multiple plausible futures to inform present decisions. It is especially valuable when traditional risk analysis and forecasting approaches have their limits. Strategic foresight includes multiple methods that can be complementary. For example, scenario planning includes the construction of a few stories of the future that illustrate important contrasts. Policy games are dynamic simulation exercises that often include structured role-play and elements of chance to help uncover the action-reaction sequence that lead to an outcome.
Foresight has been successfully deployed in different types of organizations. At the IMF, foresight has palpably influenced strategy and operations (for example, the Comprehensive Surveillance Review, creation of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust, and delivery of fiscal technical assistance). It has also uncovered blind spots (for example, on actors’ responses to capital flow measures or the political economy of pandemic vaccine distribution). However, many benefits expressed by participants, such as better crisis preparedness and a more agile mindset, are harder to directly measure. Strategic foresight is an important addition to the IMF’s risk-preparedness framework and there is room for economists in the IMF and elsewhere to use such tools more, potentially also in country work. Foresight is an organizational competence that should be continually developed through training and practice.
Acronyms and Abbreviations
| CFM | capital flow measures |
| CSR | Comprehensive Surveillance Review |
| NDU | National Defense University |
| OECD | Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development |
| SME | subject- or country-matter expert |
| TTX | tabletop exercise |
| TUNA | turbulent, unpredictably uncertain, novel, and ambiguous |