CONTENT
Tariffs in a Globalized World: A Gamble Where Everybody Loses
Getting the Most out of Trade Liberalization: Evidence from Machine Learning and Threshold Models
How to Nurture the Next Generation of Exporters: The Role of Trade Intermediaries
The Annual Research Conference 2019: Celebrating 20 Years of Academic Excellence
Reading the Sea Leaves: What Do Ship Movements Tell Us about International Trade?
Interview with Antonio Spilimbergo, the Research Department’s New Deputy Director
For new issues of IMF Research Perspectives and a variety of other IMF publications, sign up for an electronic notifcation at IMF.org/external/cntpst/index.aspx.
Individual issues are available at IMF.org/researchbulletin.
IMF RESEARCH perspectives
Editors-in-Chief
Deniz Igan Chris Papageorgiou
Guest Editor
Christina Kolerus
Assistant Editor
Patricia Loo
Editorial Assistant
Tracey Lookadoo
Contributors
Rachel Zhang
Thomas McGregor
Yunhui Zhao
Parisa Kamali
Serkan Arslanalp
Marco Marini
Patrizia Tumbarello
Christina Kolerus
Cover, design, and layout
IMF CSF Creative Solutions Division
IMF Research Perspectives—the IMF online bulletin with news on—research is a biannual publication in English and is available exclusively online free of charge.
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Material from this publication may be reprinted with proper attribution.
Editorial correspondence may be addressed to:
International Monetary Fund
Attn: Editor, IMF Research Perspectives
700 19th Street, NW
Room HQ1 9–253
Washington, DC 20431
USA
E-mail: resbulletin@IMF.org
Note from the guest editor
It has been two years since the trade tensions erupted and not only captured policymakers’ but also the research community’s attention. Research has quickly zoomed in on understanding trade war rhetoric, tariff implementation, and economic impacts. The first article in the December 2019 issue sheds light on the consequences of the recent trade barriers.
Yet developments in other parts of the world have charted very different trade trajectories, revealing various bright spots in the midst of trade war paralysis elsewhere. IMF researchers have tracked these paths and posed highly interesting research questions. They have led to Africa, where machine learning and threshold models are employed to understand the existing barriers to fully reaping the benefts offered by a newly created free trade area; to Asia, where data on Vietnamese companies reveal insights on building networks for local producers to export globally—providing lessons on export intermediaries that can be applied worldwide; and fnally to cargo vessels that travel across the world and turn into big data suppliers for constructing a global trade index.
This journey into trade research will not be the last, as researchers continue to follow the various trajectories.
~Christina Kolerus
