Working Paper 17/1

Benefits of Global and Regional Financial Integration in Latin America

Luc Eyraud, Diva Singh, Bennett W. Sutton

Working Paper 17/2

Korea’s Challenges Ahead—Lessons from Japan’s Experience

Edda Zoli

Working Paper 17/3

Why Do Bank-Dependent Firms Bear Interest-Rate Risk?

Divya Kirti

Working Paper 17/4

How Buoyant Is the Tax System? New Evidence from a Large Heterogeneous Panel

Paolo Dudine, João Tovar Jalles

Working Paper 17/5

On the Determinants of Fiscal Non-Compliance: An Empirical Analysis of Spain’s Regions

Mar Delgado-Téllez, Victor Duarte Lledo, Javier J. Pérez

Working Paper 17/6

Fiscal Rules to Tame the Political Budget Cycle: Evidence from Italian Municipalities

Lorenzo Forni, Andrea Bonfatti

Working Paper 17/7

Indian Financial Sector: Structure, Trends, and Turns

Rakesh Mohan, Partha Ray

Working Paper 17/8

Optimal Tax Administration

Michael Keen, Joel Slemrod

Working Paper 17/9

Price and Wage Flexibility in Hong Kong SAR

Si Guo

Working Paper 17/10

Collect More, Spend Better: Public Investment in Asian Frontier Markets

Manuk Ghazanchyan, Ricardo Marto, Jiri Jonas, Kaitlyn Douglass

Working Paper 17/12

Financial and Business Cycles in Brazil

Ivo Krznar, Troy D. Matheson

Working Paper 17/13

What Are Reference Rates For?

Divya Kirti

Working Paper 17/14

Money and Credit: Theory and Applications

Liang Wang, Randall Wright, Lucy Qian Liu

Working Paper 17/15

Oil Prices and the Global Economy

Rabah Arezki, Zoltan Jakab, Douglas Laxton, Akito Matsumoto, Armen Nurbekyan, Hou Wang, Jiaxiong Yao

Working Paper 17/16

Risk Taking and Interest Rates: Evidence from Decades in the Global Syndicated Loan Market

Seung Jung Lee, Lucy Qian Liu, Viktors Stebunovs

Working Paper 17/17

Corporate Restructuring and Its Macro Effects

Jongsoon Shin

Working Paper 17/18

Fiscal Politics in the Euro Area

Luc Eyraud, Vitor Gaspar, Tigran Poghosyan

Working Paper 17/19

Financial Deepening in Mexico

Alexander Herman, Alexander D. Klemm

Working Paper 17/20

International Remittances, Migration, and Primary Commodities in FSGM

Stephen Snudden

Working Paper 17/21

Czech Magic: Implementing Inflation-Forecast Targeting at the CNB

Kevin Clinton, Tibor Hlédik, Tomás Holub, Douglas Laxton, Hou Wang

Working Paper 17/22

Curbing Corporate Debt Bias

Ruud A. de Mooij, Shafik Hebous

Working Paper 17/23

Household Consumption in Japan — Role of Income and Asset Developments

Erkki Vihriälä

Working Paper 17/24

Banks’ Adjustment to Basel III Reform: A Bank-Level Perspective for Emerging Europe

Michal Andrle, Vladimír Tomšík, Jan Vlcek

Working Paper 17/25

Currency Wars or Efficient Spillovers? A General Theory of International Policy Cooperation

Anton Korinek

Working Paper 17/26

What’s Different about Bank Holding Companies?

Ralph Chami, Thomas F. Cosimano, Jun Ma, Celine Rochon

Working Paper 17/27

The Impact of Natural Resource Discoveries in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Closer Look at the Case of Bolivia

Frederik G. Toscani

Working Paper 17/28

Exploring the Role of Foreign Investors in Russia’s Local Currency Government Bond (OFZ) Market

Yinqiu Lu, Dmitry Yakovlev

Working Paper 17/29

Terms-of-Trade Cycles and External Adjustment

Gustavo Adler, Nicolas E. Magud, Alejandro M. Werner

Working Paper 17/30

Assessing the Fragility of Global Trade: The Impact of Localized Supply Shocks Using Network Analysis

Yevgeniya Korniyenko, Magali Pinat, Brian Dew

Working Paper 17/31

What Influences Bank Lending in Saudi Arabia?

Ken Miyajima

Working Paper 17/32

Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India: An Outline of the Analytical Framework

Jaromir Benes, Kevin Clinton, Asish George, Joice John, Ondra Kamenik, Douglas Laxton, Pratik Mitra, G.V. Nadhanael, Hou Wang, Fan Zhang

Working Paper 17/33

Quarterly Projection Model for India: Key Elements and Properties

Jaromir Benes, Kevin Clinton, Asish George, Pranav Gupta, Joice John, Ondra Kamenik, Douglas Laxton, Pratik Mitra, G.V. Nadhanael, Rafael Portillo, Hou Wang, Fan Zhang

Working Paper 17/34

Women at Work in Latin America and the Caribbean

Natalija Novta, Joyce Wong

Working Paper 17/35

The Growth Return of Infrastructure in Latin America

Sergi Lanau

Working Paper 17/36

What has happened to Sub-Regional Public Sector Efficiency in England since the Crisis?

Samya Beidas-Strom

Working Paper 17/37

A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries

Jiri Podpiera, Faezeh Raei, Ara Stepanyan

Working Paper 17/38

Banks, Firms, and Jobs

Fabio Berton, Sauro Mocetti, Andrea Presbitero, Matteo Richiardi

Working Paper 17/39

Governments and Promised Fiscal Consolidations: Do They Mean What They Say?

Sanjeev Gupta, João Tovar Jalles, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Michela Schena

Working Paper 17/40

Sectoral Labor Mobility and Optimal Monetary Policy

Alessandro Cantelmo, Giovanni Melina

Working Paper 17/41

The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets: Measures and Determinants

Maria Sole Pagliari, Swarnali Ahmed Hannan

Working Paper 17/42

Composition of Trade in Latin America and the Caribbean

Xiaodan Ding, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov

Working Paper 17/43

Launching Export Accelerations in Latin America and the World

Valerie Cerra, Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael

Working Paper 17/44

Effects of Timeliness on the Trade Pattern between Primary and Processed Goods

Suprabha Baniya

Working Paper 17/45

The Impact of Trade Agreements in Latin America Using the Synthetic Control Method

Swarnali Ahmed Hannan

Working Paper 17/46

Revisiting the Link between Trade, Growth and Inequality: Lessons for Latin America and the Caribbean

Kimberly Beaton, Aliona Cebotari, Andras Komaromi

Working Paper 17/47

Trade Liberalization in Peru: Adjustment Costs Amidst High Labor Mobility

Elin Baldárrago, Gonzalo Salinas

Working Paper 17/48

Understanding Inflation in Malawi: A Quantitative Investigation

Dong Frank Wu

Working Paper 17/49

Evaluating Changes in the Transmission Mechanism of Government Spending Shocks

Nooman Rebei

Working Paper 17/50

Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Brazil and Mexico’s Sovereign Bond Yields

Carlos Góes, Herman Kamil, Phil De Imus, Mercedes Garcia-Escribano, Roberto Perrelli, Shaun K. Roache, Jeremy Zook

Working Paper 17/51

Brazilian Market Portfolio

Cristina Tessari, Alexis Meyer-Cirkel

Working Paper 17/52

The Drivers of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets Post Global Financial Crisis

Swarnali Ahmed Hannan

Working Paper 17/53

Pension Reform Options in Chile: Some Tradeoffs

Marika Santoro

Working Paper 17/54

Labor Force Participation in Chile: Recent Trends, Drivers, and Prospects

Patrick Blagrave, Marika Santoro

Working Paper 17/55

Aftershocks of Monetary Unification: Hysteresis with a Financial Twist

Tamim Bayoumi, Barry J. Eichengreen

Working Paper 17/56

Direct and Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

Joseph E. Gagnon, Tamim Bayoumi, Juan M. Londono, Christian Saborowski, Horacio Sapriza

Working Paper 17/57

Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty: An Invariant Set Approach

Rossen Rozenov

Working Paper 17/58

Exchange Rates and Trade: A Disconnect?

Daniel Leigh, Weicheng Lian, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, Rachel Szymanski, Viktor Tsyrennikov, Hong Yang

Working Paper 17/59

Macroprudential Policy, Incomplete Information and Inequality: The Case of Low-Income and Developing Countries

Margarita Rubio, Filiz D. Unsal

Working Paper 17/60

Bank Ownership: Trends and Implications

Robert Cull, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Jeanne Verrier

Working Paper 17/61

Private and Public Debt: Are Emerging Markets at Risk?

Marco Bernardini, Lorenzo Forni

Working Paper 17/62

Lower Bound Beliefs and Long-Term Interest Rates

Christian Grisse, Signe Krogstrup, Silvio Schumacher

Working Paper 17/63

Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in a Small Open Economy: Estimates of Tax and Spending Multipliers in Paraguay

Antonio David

Working Paper 17/64

Fiscal Decentralization and Fiscal Policy Performance

Moussé Sow, Ivohasina F. Razafimahefa

Working Paper 17/65

Does Prolonged Monetary Policy Easing Increase Financial Vulnerability?

Stephen Cecchetti, Tommaso Mancini Griffoli, Machiko Narita

Working Paper 17/66

Can Italy Grow Out of Its NPL Overhang? A Panel Threshold Analysis

Kamiar Mohaddes, Mehdi Raissi, Anke Weber

Working Paper 17/67

Credit-Supply Shocks and Firm Productivity in Italy

Sebastian Dörr, Mehdi Raissi, Anke Weber

Working Paper 17/68

How is the likelihood of fire sales in a crisis affected by the interaction of various bank regulations?

Divya Kirti, Vijay Narasiman

Working Paper 17/69

Managing the Tide: How Do Emerging Markets Respond to Capital Flows?

Atish R. Ghosh, Jonathan David Ostry, Mahvash S. Qureshi

Working Paper 17/70

Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Dutch Disease

Julia Faltermeier, Ruy Lama, Juan Pablo Medina

Working Paper 17/71

The Macroeconomics of De-Cashing

Alexei P. Kireyev

Working Paper 17/72

Excessive Private Sector Leverage and Its Drivers: Evidence from Advanced Economies

Mariusz Jarmuzek, Rossen Rozenov

Working Paper 17/73

Financial Stability Reports in Latin America and the Caribbean

Cheng Hoon Lim, Alexander D. Klemm, Sumiko Ogawa, Marco Pani, Claudio Visconti

Working Paper 17/74

The Effects of Data Transparency Policy Reforms on Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

Sangyup Choi, Yuko Hashimoto

Working Paper 17/75

Consumption in Brazil: Where to Next?

Troy D. Matheson, Carlos Góes

Working Paper 17/76

Inequality Overhang

Francesco Grigoli, Adrian Robles

Working Paper 17/77

World Trade in Services: Evidence from A New Dataset

Prakash Loungani, Saurabh Mishra, Chris Papageorgiou, Ke Wang

Working Paper 17/78

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management

Cristiano Cantore, Paul L. Levine, Giovanni Melina, Joseph G. Pearlman

Working Paper 17/79

Education Systems and Foreign Direct Investment: Does External Efficiency Matter?

Elise Wendlassida Miningou, Sampawende J. Tapsoba

Working Paper 17/80

Das House-Kapital: A Long-Term Housing & Macro Model

Volker Grossman, Thomas Steger

Working Paper 17/81

Real Exchange Rate and External Balance: How Important Are Price Deflators?

JaeBin Ahn, Rui Mano, Jing Zhou

Working Paper 17/82

Identifying Structural Reform Gaps in Emerging Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia

Norbert Funke, Asel Isakova, Maksym Ivanyna

Working Paper 17/83

Exchange Rate Regimes in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe: A Euro Bloc and a Dollar Bloc?

Slavi T. Slavov

Working Paper 17/84

Effectiveness of Fiscal Incentives for R&D: Quasi-Experimental Evidence

Irem Guceri, Li Liu

Working Paper 17/85

Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional?

Dominic Quint, Pau Rabanal

Working Paper 17/86

Fiscal Crises

Kerstin Gerling, Paulo A. Medas, Tigran Poghosyan, Juan Farah-Yacoub, Yizhi Xu

Working Paper 17/87

Labor Market Institutions and the Cost of Recessions

Tom Krebs, Martin Scheffel

Working Paper 17/88

Tax Administration Reforms in the Caribbean: Challenges, Achievements, and Next Steps

Stephane Schlotterbeck

Working Paper 17/89

Policy, Risk and Spillover Analysis in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

Francis Vitek

Working Paper 17/90

Challenges in Correspondent Banking in the Small States of the Pacific

Jihad Alwazir, Fazurin Jamaludin, Dongyeol Lee, Niamh Sheridan, Patrizia Tumbarello

Working Paper 17/91

Thick vs. Thin-Skinned: Technology, News, and Financial Market Reaction

Barry J. Eichengreen, Romain Lafarguette, Arnaud Mehl

Working Paper 17/92

Late to the game? Capital flows to the Western Balkans

Zsoka Koczan

Working Paper 17/93

Growth Inclusiveness in Djibouti

Alexei P. Kireyev

Working Paper 17/94

Demographic Changes in Latin America: The Good, the Bad and …

Santiago Acosta Ormaechea, Marco A. Espinosa-Vega, Diego Wachs

Working Paper 17/95

Tax Administration and Firm Performance: New Data and Evidence for Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Era Dabla-Norris, Florian Misch, Duncan Cleary, Munawer Khwaja

Working Paper 17/96

Understanding the Use of Long-term Finance in Developing Economies

Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Sergio L. Schmukler

Working Paper 17/97

Assessing Corporate Vulnerabilities in Indonesia: A Bottom-Up Default Analysis

Jorge A. Chan-Lau, Weimin Miao, Ken Miyajima, Jongsoon Shin

Working Paper 17/98

Long-Run Biological Interest Rate for Pay-As-You-Go Pensions in Advanced and Developing Countries

Masahiro Nozaki

Working Paper 17/99

Fiscal Challenges of Population Aging in Brazil

Alfredo Cuevas, Izabela Karpowicz, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Mauricio Soto

Working Paper 17/100

Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism

Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, Rafael Romeu

Working Paper 17/101

Central Bank Legal Frameworks in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis

Ashraf Khan

Working Paper 17/102

Macroprudential Liquidity Stress Testing in FSAPs for Systemically Important Financial Systems

Andreas A. Jobst, Li Lian Ong, Christian Schmieder

Working Paper 17/103

Reforming Energy Policy in India: Assessing the Options

Ian W.H. Parry, Victor Mylonas, Nate Vernon

Working Paper 17/104

Taking Stock: Who Benefited from the Oil Price Shocks?

Diego A. Cerdeiro, Dmitry Plotnikov

Working Paper 17/105

Investing in Public Infrastructure: Roads or Schools?

Manoj Atolia, Bin Grace Li, Ricardo Marto, Giovanni Melina

Working Paper 17/106

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States

Ali Alichi, Olivier Bizimana, Douglas Laxton, Kadir Tanyeri, Hou Wang, Jiaxiong Yao, Fan Zhang

Working Paper 17/107

Variance Decomposition Networks: Potential Pitfalls and a Simple Solution

Jorge A. Chan-Lau

Working Paper 17/108

Lasso Regressions and Forecasting Models in Applied Stress Testing

Jorge A. Chan-Lau

Working Paper 17/109

Evaluating the Impact of Non-Financial IMF Programs Using the Synthetic Control Method

Monique Newiak, Tim Willems

Working Paper 17/110

Can They Do It All? Fiscal Space in Low-Income Countries

Anja Baum, Andrew Hodge, Aiko Mineshima, Marialuz Moreno Badia, Rene Tapsoba

Working Paper 17/111

Bank Balance Sheets and the Value of Lending

Jiaqian Chen, Giuseppe Vera

Working Paper 17/112

Farms, Fertiliser, and Financial Frictions:

Yields from a DSGE Model

Sébastien Walker

Working Paper 17/113

Collateral Reuse and Balance Sheet Space

Manmohan Singh

Working Paper 17/114

Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries: Policies, Institutions, or Shocks?

Yasemin Bal Gunduz

Working Paper 17/115

International Financial Integration in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis

Philip R. Lane, Gian M. Milesi-Ferretti

Working Paper 17/116

Bank Solvency and Funding Cost: New Data and New Results

Stefan W. Schmitz, Michael Sigmund, Laura Valderrama

Working Paper 17/117

Debt Limits and the Structure of Public Debt

Alex Pienkowski

Working Paper 17/118

Disinflation, External Vulnerability, and Fiscal Intransigence: Some Unpleasant Mundellian Arithmetic

Evan C. Tanner

Working Paper 17/119

Sovereign Bond Prices, Haircuts and Maturity

Tamon Asonuma, Dirk Niepelt, Romain Ranciere

Working Paper 17/120

Riding the Energy Transition: Oil Beyond 2040

Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, Aditya Pande

Working Paper 17/121

Portfolio Inflows and Real Effective Exchange Rates: Does the Sectorization Matter?

Rasmané Ouedraogo

Working Paper 17/122

Trading with China: Productivity Gains, Job Losses

JaeBin Ahn, Romain A. Duval

Working Paper 17/123

The Algebraic Galaxy of Simple Macroeconomic Models:

A Hitchhiker’s Guide

Evan C. Tanner

Working Paper 17/124

Labor Market Adjustments to Shocks in Australia

Adil Mohommad

Working Paper 17/125

Structural Reform Packages, Sequencing, and the Informal Economy

Zsuzsa Munkacsi, Magnus Saxegaard

Working Paper 17/126

Income Inequality and Education Revisited: Persistence, Endogeneity, and Heterogeneity

David Coady, Allan Dizioli

Working Paper 17/127

Inclusive Growth Framework

Alexei P. Kireyev, Jingyang Chen

Working Paper 17/128

Policy Uncertainty in Japan

Elif C. Arbatli, Steven J. Davis, Arata Ito, Naoko Miake, Ikuo Saito

Working Paper 17/129

Financial Frictions and the Great Productivity Slowdown

Romain A. Duval, Gee Hee Hong, Yannick Timmer

Working Paper 17/130

A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies

Maurice Obstfeld, Jonathan David Ostry, Mahvash S. Qureshi

Working Paper 17/131

Financial Disruptions and the Cyclical Upgrading of Labor

Brendan Epstein, Alan Finkelstein Shapiro, Andrés González Gómez

Working Paper 17/132

Deposit Insurance, Remittances, and Dollarization: Survey-Based Evidence from a Top Remittance-Receiving Country

David A. Grigorian, Maxym Kryshko

IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website: http://www.imf.org/research.