The December 2016 IMF Research Bulletin features highlights from ongoing IMF research and publications.


The December 2016 IMF Research Bulletin features highlights from ongoing IMF research and publications.

Working Paper 16/172

Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP): Implications for Monetary Transmission and Bank Profitability in the Euro Area

Andreas Jobst, Huidan Lin

Working Paper 16/173

China’s Growing Influence on Asian Financial Markets

Serkan Arslanalp, Wei Liao, Shi Piao, Dulani Seneviratne

Working Paper 16/174

Aggregate Uncertainty and Sectoral Productivity Growth: The Role of Credit Constraints

Sangyup Choi, Davide Furceri, Yi Huang, Prakash Loungani

Working Paper 16/175

Profitability and Balance Sheet Repair of Italian Banks

Andreas Jobst, Anke Weber

Working Paper 16/176

Growing Apart, Losing Trust? The Impact of Inequality on Social Capital

Eric D. Gould, Alexander Hijzen

Working Paper 16/178

Optimal Debt Policy Under Asymmetric Risk

Julio Escolano, Vitor Gaspar

Working Paper 16/179

Smoke Screen: Estimating the Tax Pass-Through to Cigarette Prices in Pakistan

Serhan Cevik

Working Paper 16/180

Market Frictions, Interbank Linkages and Excessive Interconnections

Pragyan Deb

Working Paper 16/181

China’s Financial Interlinkages and Implications for Inter-Agency Coordination

Min Liao, Tao Sun, Jinfan Zhang

Working Paper 16/182

Unlocking Pakistan’s Revenue Potential

Serhan Cevik

Working Paper 16/183

Rebalancing in China—Progress and Prospects

Longmei Zhang

Working Paper 16/184

Spatial Dependence and Data-Driven Networks of International Banks

Ben Craig, Martín Saldías

Working Paper 16/185

Highways to Heaven: Infrastructure Determinants and Trends in Latin America and the Caribbean

Valerie Cerra, Alfredo Cuevas, Carlos Góes, Izabela Karpowicz, Troy D Matheson, Issouf Samaké, Svetlana Vtyurina

Working Paper 16/186

Supervisory Incentives in a Banking Union

Elena Carletti, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Robert Marquez

Working Paper 16/187

Regulating Local Government Financing Vehicles and Public-Private Partnerships in China

Hui Jin, Isabel Rial

Working Paper 16/188

Fiscal Rules for Resource Windfall Allocation: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago

Keyra Primus

Working Paper 16/189

The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Investigation

Keyra Primus

Working Paper 16/190

Fragmented Politics and Public Debt

Ernesto Crivelli, Sanjeev Gupta, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Carolina Correa-Caro

Working Paper 16/191

An Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Angola and Nigeria

Ana Lariau, Moataz El-Said, Misa Takebe

Working Paper 16/192

How to Improve Inflation Targeting in Canada

Maurice Obstfeld, Kevin Clinton, Ondra Kamenik, Douglas Laxton, Yulia Ustyugova, Hou Wang

Working Paper 16/193

Products and Provinces: A Disaggregated Panel Analysis of Canada’s Manufacturing Exports

Itai Agur

Working Paper 16/194

Fading Ricardian Equivalence in Ageing Japan

Ikuo Saito

Working Paper 16/195

U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates

Carlos Caceres, Yan Carriere-Swallow, Ishak Demir, Bertrand Gruss

Working Paper 16/196

Is Capping Executive Bonuses Useful?

Kentaro Asai

Working Paper 16/197

Central Banking in Latin America: The Way Forward

Yan Carriere-Swallow, Luis I. Jacome H., Nicolas E Magud, Alejandro M. Werner

Working Paper 16/198

Negative Interest Rates: How Big a Challenge for Large Danish and Swedish Banks?

Rima Turk

Working Paper 16/199

Gone with the Wind: Estimating Hurricane and Climate Change Costs in the Caribbean

Sebastian Acevedo Mejia

Working Paper 16/200

Assessing Liquidity Buffers in the Panamanian Banking Sector

Andras Komaromi, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Torsten Wezel

Working Paper 16/201

Estimating Potential Output in Chile: A Multivariate Filter for Mining and Non-Mining Sectors

Patrick Blagrave, Marika Santoro

Working Paper 16/202

The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes

Laura Jaramillo, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Elijah Kimani

Working Paper 16/203

Resolving China’s Corporate Debt Problem

Wojciech Maliszewski, Serkan Arslanalp, John Caparusso, José Garrido, Si Guo, Joong Shik Kang, W. Raphael Lam, Daniel Law, Wei Liao, Nadia Rendak, Philippe Wingender, Jiangyan Yu, Longmei Zhang

Working Paper 16/204

Benefits and Costs of Corporate Debt Restructuring: An Estimation for Korea

Jae Chung, Lev Ratnovski

Working Paper 16/205

Surprise, Surprise: What Drives the Rand / U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate Volatility?

Nasha Maveé, Roberto Perrelli, Axel Schimmelpfennig

Working Paper 16/206

National Insurance Scheme Reforms in the Caribbean

Koffie Ben Nassar, Joel Chiedu Okwuokei, Mike Li, Timothy Robinson, Saji Thomas

Working Paper 16/207

The Role of Newly Industrialized Economies in Global Value Chains

Dominik Boddin

Working Paper 16/208

Dominican Republic: Sectoral Financial Positions and Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities

Svetlana Cerovic, Jose Saboin

Working Paper 16/209

Can Statistical Capacity Building Help Reduce Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries?

Sampawende J. Tapsoba, Robert C. York, Neree C.G.M. Noumon

Working Paper 16/210

Oil Prices and the Global Economy: Is It Different This Time Around?

Kamiar Mohaddes, M. Hashem Pesaran

Working Paper 16/211

Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities in Ireland

Nir Klein

Working Paper 16/212

Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy

Allan Dizioli, Benjamin L. Hunt, Wojciech Maliszewski

Working Paper 16/213

How to Better Measure Hedonic Residential Property Price Indexes

Mick Silver

Working Paper 16/214

When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold?

Sohrab Rafiq

Working Paper 16/215

Tuning in RBC Growth Spectra

Szilard Benk, Tamas Csabafi, Jing Dang, Max Gillman, Michal Kejak

Working Paper 16/216

Can Property Taxes Reduce House Price Volatility? Evidence from U.S. Regions

Tigran Poghosyan

Working Paper 16/217

Financial Sector Debt Bias

Oana Luca, Alexander F. Tieman

Working Paper 16/218

To Bet or Not to Bet: Copper Price Uncertainty and Investment in Chile

Fabio Comelli, Esther Perez Ruiz

Working Paper 16/219

Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model

Rui Mano

Working Paper 16/220

A Tale of Two Sectors: Why Is Misallocation Higher in Services Than in Manufacturing?

Daniel A. Dias, Christine J. Richmond, Carlos Robalo Marques

Working Paper 16/221

Securitization and Credit Quality

David Marques-Ibanez

Working Paper 16/222

Trade Costs of Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Does a Market-Friendly Approach Improve the Outcome?

Tamon Asonuma, Marcos Chamon, Akira Sasahara

Working Paper 16/223

Stock Market Liquidity in Chile

Luis Brandao-Marques

Working Paper 16/224

Whose Credit Line is it Anyway: An Update on Banks’ Implicit Subsidies

Tryggvi Gudmundsson

Working Paper 16/225

Arrears to the IMF: A Ghost of the Past?

Anne Oeking, Mariusz A. Sumlinski

Working Paper 16/226

A Balancing Act: Reform Options for Paraguay’s Fiscal Responsibility Law

Mr. Antonio David, Natalija Novta

Working Paper 16/227

The Influence of Gender Budgeting in Indian States on Gender Inequality and Fiscal Spending

Janet Gale Stotsky, Asad Zaman

Working Paper 16/228

Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks

Sylwia Nowak, Pratiti Chatterjee

Working Paper 16/229

Non-Performing Loans in the ECCU: Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact

Kimberly Beaton, Alla Myrvoda, Shernnel Thompson

Working Paper 16/230

Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rates: Does Politics Matter?

João Tovar Jalles, Carlos Mulas-Granados, José Tavares

Working Paper 16/231

System Priors for Econometric Time Series

Michal Andrle, Miroslav Plašil

Working Paper 16/232

Minimum Wage as a Wage Policy Tool in Japan

Chie Aoyagi, Giovanni Ganelli, Nour Tawk

Working Paper 16/233

Political Institutions, State Building, and Tax Capacity: Crossing the Tipping Point

Vitor Gaspar, Laura Jaramillo, Philippe Wingender

Working Paper 16/234

Tax Capacity and Growth: Is there a Tipping Point?

Vitor Gaspar, Laura Jaramillo, Philippe Wingender

Working Paper 16/235

Real Effects of Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets

Deniz O. Igan, Ali M. Kutan, Ali Mirzae

Working Paper 16/236

Macro-Financial Linkages and Heterogeneous Non-Performing Loans Projections: An Application to Ecuador

Francesco Grigoli, Mario Mansilla, Martín Saldías

IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website: