Abstract
The September 2016 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin includes the following two Research Summaries: 'A New Look at Bank Capital' (by Jihad Dagher, Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, Luc Laeven, Lev Ratnovski, and Hui Tong) and 'Does Growth Create Jobs?: Evidence for Advance and Developing Economies (by Zidong An, Nathalie Gonzalez Prieto, Prakash Loungani, and Saurabh Mishra). The Q&A article by Rabah Arezki discusses 'Seven Questions on Rethinking the Oil Market in the Aftermath of the 2014-16 Price Slump.' A listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications are also included. Readers can also find an announcement on the 2016 Annual Research Conference and links to top cited 2015 articles in the IMF Economic Review.
Working Paper No. 16/98
Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability in the Arab Region
Ananthakrishnan Prasad, Heba Abdel Monem, and Pilar Garcia Martinez
Working Paper No. 16/99
Spillovers from Japan’s Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia: A Global VAR approach
Giovanni Ganelli and Nour Tawk
Working Paper No. 16/100
How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?
Jacopo Cimadomo, Peter Claeys, and Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro
Working Paper 16/101
Estimating the Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)
Diego A. Cerdeiro
Working Paper 16/102
Testing Shock Transmission Channels to Low-Income Developing Countries
Nina Biljanovska and Alexis Meyer-Cirkel
Working Paper 16/103
Monetary and Fiscal Policies and the Dynamics of the Yield Curve in Morocco
Calixte Ahokpossi, Pilar Garcia Martinez, and Laurent Kemoe
Working Paper 16/104
Fiscal Buffers, Private Debt, and Stagnation: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Nicoletta Batini, Giovanni Melina, and Stefania Villa
Working Paper 16/105
China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown
Gee Hee Hong, Jaewoo Lee, Wei Liao, and Dulani Seneviratne
Working Paper 16/106
Chinese Imports: What’s Behind the Slowdown?
Joong Shik Kang and Wei Liao
Working Paper 16/107
External Adjustment in Oil Exporters:
The Role of Fiscal Policy and the Exchange Rate
Alberto Behar and Armand Fouejieu
Working Paper 16/108
Global Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Autonomy
Carlos Caceres, Yan Carriere-Swallow, and Bertrand Gruss
Working Paper 16/109
Foreign Bank Subsidiaries’ Default Risk during the Global Crisis: What Factors Help Insulate Affiliates from their Parents?
Deniz Anginer, Eugenio Cerutti, and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria
Working Paper 16/110
Changes in Prudential Policy Instruments—A New Cross-Country Database
Eugenio Cerutti, Ricardo Correa, Elisabetta Fiorentino, and Esther Segalla
Working Paper 16/111
Inequality, Gender Gaps, and Economic Growth: Comparative Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa
Dalia Hakura, Mumtaz Hussain, Monique Newiak, Vimal Thakoor, and Fan Yang
Working Paper 16/112
What Does Aid Do to Fiscal Policy? New Evidence
Jean-Louis Combes, Rasmané Ouedraogo, and Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba
Working Paper 16/113
The Consequences of Policy Uncertainty: Disconnects and Dilutions in the South African Real Effective Exchange Rate-Export Relationship
Sandile Hlatshwayo and Magnus Saxegaard
Working Paper 16/114
Product Market Deregulation and Growth: New Country-Industry-Level Evidence
Romain Bouis, Romain A. Duval, and Johannes Eugster
Working Paper 16/115
Investing in Electricity, Growth, and Debt Sustainability: The Case of Lesotho
Michele Andreolli and Aidar Abdychev
Working Paper 16/116
The Short-Term Impact of Product Market Reforms: A Cross-Country Firm-Level Analysis
Peter N. Gal and Alexander Hijzen
Working Paper 16/117
The Impact of Trade Agreements: New Approach, New Insights
Swarnali Ahmed Hannan
Working Paper 16/118
Women’s Opportunities and Challenges in Sub-Saharan African Job Markets
Christine Dieterich, Anni Huang, and Alun H. Thomas
Working Paper 16/119
The Impact of Product Market Reforms on Firm Productivity in Italy
Sergi Lanau and Petia Topalova
Working Paper 16/120
Monetary Policy Implementation and Volatility Transmission along the Yield Curve: The Case of Kenya
Emre Alper, R. Armando Morales, and Fan Yang
Working Paper 16/121
Income Polarization in the United States
Ali Alichi, Kory Kantenga, and Juan Sole
Working Paper 16/122
What’s Up with U.S. Wage Growth and Job Mobility?
Stephan Danninger
Working Paper 16/123
Syria’s Conflict Economy
Jeanne Gobat and Kristina Kostial
Working Paper 16/124
What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low: Insights from a Bottom-Up Approach
Yasser Abdih, Ravi Balakrishnan, and Baoping Shang
Working Paper 16/125
U.S. Dollar Dynamics: How Important Are Policy Divergence and FX Risk Premiums?
Ravi Balakrishnan, Stefan Laseen, and Andrea Pescatori
Working Paper 16/126
Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?
Stefan Laseen and Marzie Taheri Sanjani
Working Paper 16/127
U.S. Corporate Income Tax Reform and its Spillovers
Kimberly Clausing, Edward Kleinbard, and Thornton Matheson
Working Paper 16/128
A National Wealth Approach to Banking Crises and Financial Stability
Olivier Frecaut
Working Paper 16/129
Outside the Band: Depreciation and Inflation Dynamics in Chile
Esther Perez Ruiz
Working Paper 16/130
A Network Model of Multilaterally Equilibrium Exchange Rates
Alexei Kireyev and Andrei Leonidov
Working Paper 16/131
An Analysis of OPEC’s Strategic Actions, U.S. Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash
Alberto Behar and Robert A. Ritz
Working Paper 16/132
Inflation, Financial Developments, and Wealth Distribution
Wai-Yip Alex Ho and Chun-Yu Ho
Working Paper 16/133
Fixed Base Year vs. Chain Linking in National Accounts: Experience of Sub-Saharan African Countries
Robert Dippelsman, Venkat Josyula, and Eric Métreau
Working Paper 16/134
Insolvency and Enforcement Reforms in Italy
José Garrido
Working Paper 16/135
Cleaning-up Bank Balance Sheets: Economic, Legal, and Supervisory Measures for Italy
José Garrido, Emanuel Kopp, and Anke Weber
Working Paper 16/136
The Dynamics of Sovereign Debt Crises and Bailouts
Francisco Roch and Harald Uhlig
Working Paper 16/137
South Africa: Labor Market Dynamics and Inequality
Rahul Anand, Siddharth Kothari and Naresh Kumar
Working Paper 16/138
The Fiscal Multiplier in Small Open Economy: The Role of Liquidity Frictions
Jasmin Sin
Working Paper 16/139
6½ Decades of Global Trade and Income: “New Normal” or “Back to Normal” after GTC and GFC?
Sanjay Kalra
Working Paper 16/140
Gender Equality and Economic Diversification
Romina Kazandjian, Lisa Kolovich, Kalpana Kochhar, and Monique Newiak
Working Paper 16/141
The Role of Fiscal Transfers in Smoothing Regional Shocks: Evidence from Existing Federations
Tigran Poghosyan, Abdelhak Senhadji, and Carlo Cottarelli
Working Paper 16/142
Does Conditionality Mitigate the Potential Negative Effect of Aid on Revenues?
Ernesto Crivelli and Sanjeev Gupta
Working Paper 16/143
No Extension without Representation? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Collective Bargaining
Alexander Hijzen and Pedro S. Martins
Working Paper 16/144
Fiscal Multipliers and Institutions in Peru: Getting the Largest Bang for the Sol
Svetlana Vtyurina and Zulima Leal
Working Paper 16/145
Sovereign Risk and Deposit Dynamics: Evidence from Europe
David A. Grigorian and Vlad Manole
Working Paper 16/146
The Design of Fiscal Reform Packages: Insights from a Theoretical Endogenous Growth Model
Andrew Hodge
Working Paper 16/147
Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Growth
Lorenzo Forni, Geremia Palomba, Joana Pereira, and Christine J. Richmond
Working Paper 16/148
Climate Mitigation in China: Which Policies Are Most Effective?
Ian W.H. Parry, Baoping Shang, Philippe Wingender, Nate Vernon, and Tarun Narasimhan
Working Paper 16/149
Gender Budgeting: Fiscal Context and Current Outcomes
Janet Gale Stotsky
Working Paper 16/150
Asia: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
Lekha Chakraborty
Working Paper 16/151
Middle East and Central Asia: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
Lisa Kolovich and Sakina Shibuya
Working Paper 16/152
Sub-Saharan Africa: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
Janet Gale Stotsky, Lisa Kolovich, and Suhaib Kebhaj
Working Paper 16/153
Western Hemisphere: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
Lucía Pérez Fragoso and Corina Rodríguez Enríquez
Working Paper 16/154
Caribbean and Pacific Islands: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
Tamoya A. L. Christie and Dhanaraj Thakur
Working Paper 16/155
Europe: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts Sheila Quinn
Working Paper 16/156
The Case for an Independent Fiscal Institution in Japan
George Kopits
Working Paper 16/157
Reflating Japan: Time to Get Unconventional?
Elif Arbatli, Dennis P. J. Botman, Kevin Clinton, Pietro Cova, Vitor Gaspar, Zoltan Jakab, Douglas Laxton, Constant Lonkeng Ngouana, Joannes Mongardini, and Hou Wang
Working Paper 16/158
Measuring Concentration Risk: A Partial Portfolio Approach
Pierpaolo Grippa and Lucyna Gornicka
Working Paper 16/159
Inflation and the Black Market Exchange Rate in a Repressed Market: A Model of Venezuela
Valerie Cerra
Working Paper 16/160
Testing Piketty’s Hypothesis on the Drivers of Income Inequality: Evidence from Panel VARs with Heterogeneous Dynamics
Carlos Góes
Working Paper 16/161
The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking System in the GCC
Padamja Khandelwal, Ken Miyajima, and Andre Santos
Working Paper 16/162
From Firm-Level Imports to Aggregate Productivity: Evidence from Korean Manufacturing Firms Data
JaeBin Ahn and Moon Jung Choi
Working Paper 16/163
A Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Space and Prudent Debt Level: Application to Low-Income Developing Countries
Olumuyiwa Adedeji, Calixte Ahokpossi, Claudio Battiati, and Mai Farid
Working Paper 16/164
Investing to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change: A Framework Model
Anthony Bonen, Prakash Loungani, Willi Semmler, and Sebastian Koch
Working Paper 16/165
Evolution of Exchange Rate Behavior in the ASEAN-5 Countries
Vladimir Klyuev and To-Nhu Dao
Working Paper 16/166
What is Responsible for India’s Sharp Disinflation?
Sajjid Chinoy, Pankaj Kumar, and Prachi Mishra
Working Paper 16/167
Monetary Transmission in Developing Countries: Evidence from India
Prachi Mishra, Peter Montiel, and Rajeswari Sengupta
Working Paper 16/168
The Real Exchange Rate: Assessment and Trade Impact in the Context of Fiji and Samoa
Jan Gottschalk, Carl Miller, Lanieta Rauqeuqe, Isoa Wainiqolo, and Yongzheng Yang
Working Paper 16/169
Demographic Dividends, Gender Equality, and Economic Growth: The Case of Cabo Verde
Heloisa Marone
Working Paper 16/170
Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies
Allan Dizioli, Jaime Guajardo, Vladimir Klyuev, Rui Mano, and Mehdi Raissi
Working Paper 16/171
Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Some Case Studies Using the Synthetic Control Method
Bibek Adhikari, Romain A. Duval, Bingjie Hu, and Prakash Loungani
IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website: http://www.imf.org/research.