Working Paper 15/238

Defining the Government’s Debt and Deficit

Timothy Irwin

Working Paper 15/239

Monetary Transmission: Are Emerging Market and Low Income Countries Different?

Ales Bulir, Jan Vlcek

Working Paper 15/240

External Devaluations: Are Small States Different?

Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Aliona Cebotari, Kevin Greenidge, Geoffrey N. Keim

Working Paper 15/241

Spillovers from Global and Regional Shocks to Armenia

Knarik Ayvazyan, Teresa Dabán Sánchez

Working Paper 15/242

End of the Supercycle and Growth of Commodity Producers: The Case of Chile

Luc Eyraud

Working Paper 15/243

Capital Account Liberalization and Inequality

Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani

Working Paper 15/244

Functional Income Distribution and Its Role in Explaining Inequality

Maura Francese, Carlos Mulas-Granados

Working Paper 15/245

Informality in Paraguay: Macro-Micro Evidence and Policy Implications

Mauricio Vargas

Working Paper 15/246

Recognizing the Bias: Financial Cycles and Fiscal Policy

Nina Budina, Borja Gracia, Xingwei Hu, Sergejs Saksonovs

Working Paper 15/247

Resolution Frameworks for Islamic Banks

Elsie Addo Awadzi, Carine Chartouni, Mario Tamez

Working Paper 15/248

How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles?

Tigran Poghosyan

Working Paper 15/249

Bank Profitability and Risk-Taking

Natalya Martynova, Lev Ratnovski, Razvan Vlahu

Working Paper 15/250

The Unequal Benefits of Fuel Subsidies Revisited: Evidence for Developing Countries

David Coady, Valentina Flamini, Louis Sears

Working Paper 15/251

Forecasting the Nominal Brent Oil Price with VARs—One Model Fits All?

Benjamin Beckers, Samya Beidas-Strom

Working Paper 15/252

Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports

Swarnali Ahmed, Maximiliano Appendino, Michele Ruta

Working Paper 15/253

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the Euro Area and the United States

Ali Alichi, Olivier Bizimana, Silvia Domit, Emilio Fernández Corugedo, Douglas Laxton, Kadir Tanyeri, Hou Wang, Fan Zhang

Working Paper 15/254

The Nordic Labor Market and Migration

Giang Ho, Kazuko Shirono

Working Paper 15/255

Contingent Liabilities from Banks: How to Track Them?

Serkan Arslanalp, Yin Liao

Working Paper 15/256

If the Fed Acts, How Do You React? The Liftoff Effect on Capital Flows

Swarnali Ahmed

Working Paper 15/257

Debt Maturity: Does It Matter for Fiscal Space?

Jun Il Kim

Working Paper 15/258

Taylor Visits Africa

Carlos Goncalves

Working Paper 15/259

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy

Kamiar Mohaddes, Mehdi Raissi

Working Paper 15/260

Interest Rate Pass-Through in the Dominican Republic

Francesco Grigoli, José M. Mota

Working Paper 15/261

The Whole Elephant: A Proposal for Integrating Cash, Accrual, and Sustainability-Gap Accounts

Timothy Irwin

Working Paper 15/262

Fiscal Consolidation during Times of High Unemployment: The Role of Productivity Gains and Wage Restraint

Ruy Lama, Juan Pablo Medina Guzman

Working Paper 15/263

Emerging Market Portfolio Flows: The Role of Benchmark-Driven Investors

Serkan Arslanalp, Takahiro Tsuda

Working Paper 15/264

Crowding-Out or Crowding-In? Public and Private Investment in India

Mehdi Raissi, Volodymyr Tulin, Girish Bahal

Working Paper 15/265

Explaining Inequality and Poverty Reduction in Bolivia

Mauricio Vargas, Santiago Garriga

Working Paper 15/266

Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in Bolivia

Alejandro D. Guerson

Working Paper 15/267

Impact of the New Financial Services Law in Bolivia on Financial Stability and Inclusion

Dyna Heng

Working Paper 15/268

Exiting From Fragility in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Fiscal Policies and Fiscal Institutions

Corinne Deléchat, Ejona Fuli, Dafina Mulaj, Gustavo Ramirez, Rui Xu

Working Paper 15/269

How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy: Nowcasting an Emerging Market

Serhat Solmaz, Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Working Paper 15/270

Monetary Policy in a Developing Country: Loan Applications and Real Effects

Charles Abuka, Ronnie K Alinda, Camelia Minoiu, José-Luis Peydró, Andrea Presbitero

Working Paper 15/271

March Madness in Wall Street: (What) Does the Market Learn from Stress Tests?

Marcelo Fernandes, Deniz Igan, Marcelo Pinheiro

Working Paper 15/272

Some Misconceptions about Public Investment Efficiency and Growth

Andrew Berg, Edward F. Buffie, Catherine A. Pattillo, Rafael Portillo, Andrea Presbitero, Luis-Felipe Zanna

Working Paper 15/273

A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam

Allan Dizioli, Jochen M. Schmittmann

Working Paper 15/274

Financial Distortions in China: A General Equilibrium Approach

Diego Anzoategui, Mali Chivakul, Wojciech Maliszewski

Working Paper 15/275

International Sovereign Bonds by Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: Drivers of Issuance and Spreads

Andrea Presbitero, Dhaneshwar Ghura, Olumuyiwa Adedeji, Lamin Njie

Working Paper 15/276

Housing Price and Household Debt Interactions in Sweden

Rima Turk

Working Paper 15/277

Changes in the Global Investor Base and the Stability of Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets

Luis Brandao-Marques, Gaston Gelos, Hibiki Ichiue, Hiroko Oura

Working Paper 15/278

From Expenditure Consolidation to Expenditure Efficiency: Addressing Public Expenditure Pressures in Lithuania

David Coady, Nan Geng

Working Paper 15/279

Reforming the Legal and Institutional Framework for the Enforcement of Civil and Commercial Claims in Portugal

Sebastiaan Pompe, Wolfgang Bergthaler

Working Paper 15/280

Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster: Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies

Andres Fernandez, Andres Gonzalez, Diego Rodriguez

Working Paper 15/281

The Game of Anchors: Studying the Causes of Currency Crises in Belarus

Alex Miksjuk, Sam Ouliaris, Mikhail Pranovich

Working Paper 15/282

Long-Term Gain, Short-Term Pain: Assessing the Potential Impact of Structural Reforms in Chile

Marika Santoro

Working Paper 15/283

Will Macroprudential Policy Counteract Monetary Policy’s Effects on Financial Stability?

Itai Agur, Maria Demertzis

Working Paper 15/284

Floating with a Load of FX Debt?

Tatsiana Kliatskova, Uffe Mikkelsen

Working Paper 15/285

Corporate Investment in Emerging Markets: Financing vs. Real Options Channel

Delong Li, Nicolas E. Magud, Fabian Valencia

Working Paper 15/286

Government Spending Effects in Low-income Countries

Wenyi Shen, Shu-Chun S. Yang, Luis-Felipe Zanna

Working Paper 15/287

The Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures by the Systemic Four on Global Liquidity and Monetary Conditions

Yevgeniya Korniyenko, Elena Loukoianova

Working Paper 15/288

Effects of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies on Financial Conditions: Evidence from the United States

Aleksandra Zdzienicka, Sally Chen, Federico Diaz Kalan, Stefan Laseen, Katsiaryna Svirydzenka

Working Paper 16/1

Non-Linear Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets

Francesca G. Caselli, Agustin Roitman

Working Paper 16/2

Understanding India’s Food Inflation: The Role of Demand and Supply Factors

Rahul Anand, Naresh Kumar, Volodymyr Tulin

Working Paper 16/3

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind: Are Costs Larger Also with Less Effective Macroprudential Policy?

Lars E. O. Svensson

Working Paper 16/4

Effectiveness and Channels of Macroprudential Instruments: Lessons from the Euro Area

Thierry Tressel, Yuanyan Sophia Zhang

Working Paper 16/5

Introducing a New Broad-Based Index of Financial Development

Katsiaryna Svirydzenka

Working Paper 16/6

The Labor Market Performance of Immigrants in Germany

Robert C. M. Beyer

Working Paper 16/7

From Containment to Rationalization: Increasing Public Expenditure Efficiency in France

Jean-Jacques Hallaert, Maximilien Queyranne

Working Paper 16/8

Flexible Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Fiscal Policy

Martine Guerguil, Pierre Mandon, Rene Tapsoba

Working Paper 16/9

Risks of Stagnation in the Euro Area

Huidan Lin

Working Paper 16/10

The Lender of Last Resort Function after the Global Financial Crisis

Marc Dobler, Simon Gray, Diarmuid Murphy, Bozena Radzewicz-Bak

Working Paper 16/11

The Financial Wealth of Corporations: A First Look at Sectoral Balance Sheet Data

Yuko Hashimoto, Noriaki Kinoshita

Working Paper 16/12

Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility

Tidiane Kinda, Montfort Mlachila, Rasmané Ouedraogo

Working Paper 16/13

Estimating Fiscal Multipliers with Correlated Heterogeneity

Emmanouil Kitsios, Manasa Patnam

Working Paper 16/14

The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities: A New Dataset

Elva Bova, Marta Ruiz-Arranz, Frederik G. Toscani, H. Elif Ture

Working Paper 16/15

Structural Reforms and Productivity Growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Era Dabla-Norris, Giang Ho, Annette Kyobe

Working Paper 16/16

Macroeconomic Impacts of Gender Inequality and Informality in India

Purva Khera

Working Paper 16/17

Unintended Consequences: Spillovers from Nigeria’s Fuel Pricing Policies to Its Neighbor

Montfort Mlachila, Edgardo Ruggiero, David Corvino

Working Paper 16/18

From Global Savings Glut to Financing Infrastructure: The Advent of Investment Platforms

Rabah Arezki, Patrick Bolton, Sanjay Peters, Frederic Samama, Joseph Stiglitz

Working Paper 16/19

Robust Measures of Core Inflation for Vietnam

Sanjay Kalra, Bui Thi Trang Dzung

Working Paper 16/20

Wage-Price Dynamics and Structural Reforms in Japan

Davide Porcellacchia

Working Paper 16/21

Trends in Gender Equality and Women’s Advancement

Janet Gale Stotsky, Sakina Shibuya, Lisa Kolovich, Suhaib Kebhaj

Working Paper 16/22

An Empirical Investigation of Oil-Macro-Financial Linkages in Saudi Arabia

Ken Miyajima

Working Paper 16/23

Pass-Through of Imported Input Prices to Domestic Producer Prices: Evidence from Sector-Level Data

JaeBin Ahn, Chang-Gui Park, Chanho Park

Working Paper 16/24

South Africa’s Exports Performance: Any Role for Structural Factors?

Rahul Anand, Roberto Perrelli, Boyang Zhang

Working Paper 16/25

What’s in a Name? That Which We Call Capital Controls

Atish R. Ghosh, Mahvash Qureshi

Working Paper 16/26

Pilot Project on Concentration and Distribution Measures for a Selected Set of Financial Soundness Indicators

Joseph Crowley, Plapa Koukpamou, Elena Loukoianova, André Mialou

Working Paper 16/27

Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom

Aqib Aslam, Samya Beidas-Strom, Rudolfs Bems, Oya Celasun, Sinem Kiliç Çelik, Zsoka Koczan

Working Paper 16/28

Leading Indicators of Fiscal Distress: Evidence from the Extreme Bound Analysis

Martin Bruns, Tigran Poghosyan

Working Paper 16/29

Macroprudential Policies in Southeastern Europe

Dilyana Dimova, Piyabha Kongsamut, Jérôme Vandenbussche