The September 2015 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin covers a range of research topics and announcements of interest to those following finance and economics.


The September 2015 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin covers a range of research topics and announcements of interest to those following finance and economics.

Working Paper 15/105

How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies?

David Coady, Ian W.H. Parry, Louis Sears, and Baoping Shang

Working Paper 15/106

Issuance of Central Bank Securities: International Experiences and Guidelines

Simon Gray and Runchana Pongsaparn

Working Paper 15/107

Islamic Finance, Consumer Protection, and Financial Stability

Inutu Lukonga

Working Paper 15/108

Saving in Latin America and the Caribbean: Performance and Policies

Francesco Grigoli, Alexander Herman, and Klaus SchmidtHebbel

Working Paper 15/109

Correcting “Beyond the Cycle:” Accounting for Asset Prices in Structural Fiscal Balances

Estelle X. Liu, Todd Mattina, and Tigran Poghosyan

Working Paper 15/110

Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh

Leandro Medina

Working Paper 15/111

A Network Analysis of Sectoral Accounts: Identifying Sectoral Interlinkages in G-4 Economies

Luiza Antoun de Almeida

Working Paper 15/112

It’s Not All Fiscal: Effects of Income, Fiscal Policy, and Wealth on Private Consumption

Laura Jaramillo and Alexandre Chailloux

Working Paper 15/113

China’s Growth: Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears?

Wojciech Maliszewski and Longmei Zhang

Working Paper 15/114

(Not) Dancing Together: Monetary Policy Stance and the Government Spending Multiplier

Vincent Belinga and Constant Lonkeng Ngouana

Working Paper 15/115

New Energy Sources for Jordan: Macroeconomic Impact and Policy Considerations

Andrea Gamba

Working Paper 15/116

U.S. Total Factor Productivity Slowdown: Evidence from the U.S. States

Roberto Cardarelli and Lusine Lusinyan

Working Paper 15/117

Sub-National Government’s Risk Premia: Does Fiscal Performance Matter?

Sergio Sola and Geremia Palomba

Working Paper 15/118

Base Erosion, Profit Shifting and Developing Countries

Ernesto Crivelli, Ruud A. de Mooij, and Michael Keen

Working Paper 15/119

Make in India: Which Exports Can Drive the Next Wave of Growth?

Rahul Anand, Kalpana Kochhar, and Saurabh Mishra

Working Paper 15/120

An Overview of Islamic Finance

Mumtaz Hussain, Asghar Shahmoradi, and Rima Turk

Working Paper 15/121

Crime and the Economy in Mexican States: Heterogeneous Panel Estimates (1993–2012)

Concepción Verdugo Yepes, Peter L. Pedroni, and Xingwei Hu

Working Paper 15/122

Poverty, Growth, and Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Did the Walk Match the Talk under the PRSP Approach?

Daouda Sembene

Working Paper 15/123

Experiences with Macroprudential Policy—Five Case Studies

Salim M. Darbar and Xiaoyong Wu

Working Paper 15/124

Strengthening Fiscal Frameworks and Improving the Spending Mix in Small States

Ezequiel Cabezon, Patrizia Tumbarello, and Yiqun Wu

Working Paper 15/125

Enhancing Macroeconomic Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change in the Small States of the Pacific

Ezequiel Cabezon, Leni Hunter, Patrizia Tumbarello, Kazuaki Washimi, and Yiqun Wu

Working Paper 15/126

Pension Reforms in Mauritius: Fair and Fast—Balancing Social Protection and Fiscal Sustainability

Mauricio Soto, Vimal Thakoor, and Martin Petri

Working Paper 15/127

Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Why Knowing Your Lender Matters More Than Fundamentals

Eugenio Cerutti, Stijn Claessens, and Damien Puy

Working Paper 15/128

Gauging Housing Supply in Canada: A Stock Approach

Julien Reynaud

Working Paper 15/129

Monetary Policy in India: Transmission to Bank Interest Rates

Sonali Das

Working Paper 15/130

Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Panel Approach

Gustavo Adler, Noemie Lisack, and Rui Mano

Working Paper 15/131

The Leap of the Tiger: How Malaysia Can Escape the Middle-Income Trap

Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov

Working Paper 15/132

Inflation-Forecast Targeting: Applying the Principle of Transparency

Kevin Clinton, Charles Freedman, Michel Juillard, Ondra Kamenik, Douglas Laxton, and Hou Wang

Working Paper 15/133

Global Food Prices and Domestic Inflation: Some Cross-Country Evidence

Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, John Simon, and Susan Wachter

Working Paper 15/134

Avoiding Dark Corners: A Robust Monetary Policy Framework for the United States

Ali Alichi, Kevin Clinton, Charles Freedman, Ondra Kamenik, Michel Juillard, Douglas Laxton, Jarkko Turunen, and Hou Wang

Working Paper 15/135

Lower for Longer: Neutral Rates in the United States

Andrea Pescatori and Jarkko Turunen

Working Paper 15/136

The Journey to Inflation Targeting: Easier Said than Done the Case for Transitional Arrangements along the road

Bernard Laurens, Kelly Eckhold, Darryl King, Nils Øyvind Mæhle, Abdul Naseer, and Alain Durré

Working Paper 15/137

What Really Drives Public Debt: A Holistic Approach

Pablo Anaya and Alex Pienkowski

Working Paper 15/138

Estimation and Out-of-Sample Prediction of Sudden Stops: Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other?

Fabio Comelli

Working Paper 15/139

Does Easing Monetary Policy Increase Financial Instability?

Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and Alessandro Rebucci

Working Paper 15/140

Assessing Default Risks for Chinese Firms: A Lost Cause?

Daniel Law and Shaun K. Roache

Working Paper 15/141

Global Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Markets

Christian Ebeke and Annette Kyobe

Working Paper 15/142

Systemic Risk: A New Trade-Off for Monetary Policy?

Stefan Laseen, Andrea Pescatori, and Jarkko Turunen

Working Paper 15/143

The Macroeconomic Relevance of Credit Flows: An Exploration of U.S. Data

Alexander Herman, Deniz Igan, and Juan Sole

Working Paper 15/144

A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States

Ali Alichi

Working Paper 15/145

How Does Post-Crisis Bank Capital Adequacy Affect Firm Investment?

Yangfan Sun, Hui Tong

Working Paper 15/146

Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests: Progress So Far and the Way Forward

Dimitri G. Demekas

Working Paper 15/147

Designing Legal Frameworks for Public Debt Management

Elsie Addo Awadzi

Working Paper 15/148

What Slice of the Pie? The Corporate Bond Market Boom in Emerging Economies

Diana Ayala Pena, Milan Nedeljkovic, and Christian Saborowski

Working Paper 15/149

Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers

Alexei Kireyev and Andrei Leonidov

Working Paper 15/150

Banks in the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model

Michal Andrle, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton, and Dirk Muir

Working Paper 15/151

China’s Labor Market in the “New Normal”

Raphael W. Lam, Xiaoguang Liu, and Alfred Schipke

Working Paper 15/152

The Quest for the Holy Grail: Efficient and Equitable Fiscal Consolidation in India

Chadi Abdallah, David Coady, Sanjeev Gupta, and Emine Hanedar

Working Paper 15/153

Financial Factors: Implications for Output Gaps

Pau Rabanal and Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Working Paper 15/154

LTV and DTI Limits—Going Granular

Luis I. Jacome H. and Srobona Mitra

Working Paper 15/155

Emerging Market Heterogeneity: Insights from Cluster and Taxonomy Analysis

Zhongxia Zhang and Yuan Gao

Working Paper 15/156

The Dog That Didn’t Bark: The Strange Case of Domestic Policy Cooperation in the “New Normal”

Tamim Bayoumi

Working Paper 15/157

The Impact of IMF-Supported Programs on FDI in Low-income Countries

Ali J. Al-sadiq

Working Paper 15/158

Should Korea Worry about a Permanently Weak Yen?

Jack Ree, Gee Hee Hong, and Seoeun Choi

Working Paper 15/159

Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?

Olivier J. Blanchard, Gustavo Adler, and Irineu E. Carvalho Filho

Working Paper 15/160

Drivers of Financial Integration—Implications for Asia

Nasha Ananchotikul and Shi Piao, Edda Zoli

Working Paper 15/161

Price and Income Elasticity of Indian Exports—The Role of Supply-Side Bottlenecks

Mehdi Raissi and, Volodymyr Tulin

Working Paper 15/162

The German Labor Market Reforms and Post-Unemployment Earnings

Niklas Engbom, Enrica Detragiache, and Faezeh Raei

Working Paper 15/163

Joining the Club? Procyclicality of Private Capital Inflows in Low Income Developing Countries

Juliana Dutra Araujo, Antonio David, Carlos van Hombeeck, and Chris Papageorgiou

Working Paper 15/164

Macroeconomic Challenges of Structural Transformation: Public Investment, Growth and Debt Sustainability in Sierra Leone

Lacina Balma and Mthuli Ncube

Working Paper 15/165

Systemic Risk, Aggregate Demand, and Commodity Prices

Javier Gómez-Pineda, Dominique M. Guillaume, and Kadir Tanyeri

Working Paper 15/166

From Systemic Banking Crises to Fiscal Costs: Risk Factors

David Amaglobeli, Nicolas End, Mariusz Jarmuzek, and Geremia Palomba

Working Paper 15/167

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Luis Catão and Rui Mano

Working Paper 15/168

Does Public Sector Inefficiency Constrain Firm Productivity: Evidence from Italian Provinces

Raffaela Giordano, Sergi Lanau, Pietro Tommasino, and Petia Topalova

Working Paper 15/169

Household Financial Access and Risk Sharing in Nigeria

Stacy Carlson, Era Dabla-Norris, Mika Saito, and Yu Shi

Working Paper 15/170

A Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Uruguay

Rafael Portillo and Yulia Ustyugova

Working Paper 15/171

Transforming Non-Renewable Resource Economies (NREs)

Bill Battaile and Saurabh Mishra

Working Paper 15/172

Fiscal Deficit and Public Debt in the Western Balkans: 15 Years of Economic Transition

Zsoka Koczan

Working Paper 15/173

What Matters for Financial Development and Stability?

Raja Almarzoqi, Sami Ben Naceur, and Akshay Kotak

Working Paper 15/174

Institutions and Growth: A GMM/IV Panel VAR Approach

Carlos Góes

Working Paper 15/175

Now or Later? The Political Economy of Public Investment in Democracies

Sanjeev Gupta, Estelle X. Liu, and Carlos Mulas-Granados

Working Paper 15/176

Deflation and Public Finances: Evidence from the Historical Records

Nicolas End, Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba, G. Terrier, and Renaud Duplay

Working Paper 15/177

Does a Regional Trade Agreement Lessen or Exacerbate Growth Volatility? An Empirical Investigation

Kangni Kpodar and Patrick A. Imam

Working Paper 15/178

Estimation of Drivers of Public Education Expenditure: Baumol’s Effect Revisited

Manabu Nose

Working Paper 15/179

Collateral Damage: Dollar Strength and Emerging Markets’ Growth

Pablo Druck, Nicolas E. Magud, and Rodrigo Mariscal

Working Paper 15/180

Filling the Gap: Infrastructure Investment in Brazil

Mercedes Garcia-Escribano, Carlos Góes, and Izabela Karpowicz

Working Paper 15/181

Foreign Help Wanted: Easing Japan’s Labor Shortages

Giovanni Ganelli and Naoko Miake

Working Paper 15/182

Price Expectations and the U.S. Housing Boom

Pascal Towbin and Sebastian Weber

Working Paper 15/183

Production Offshoring and Investment by Japanese Firms

Joong Shik Kang and Shi Piao

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