Abstract
The September 2015 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin covers a range of research topics and announcements of interest to those following finance and economics.
How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies?
David Coady, Ian W.H. Parry, Louis Sears, and Baoping Shang
Issuance of Central Bank Securities: International Experiences and Guidelines
Simon Gray and Runchana Pongsaparn
Islamic Finance, Consumer Protection, and Financial Stability
Inutu Lukonga
Saving in Latin America and the Caribbean: Performance and Policies
Francesco Grigoli, Alexander Herman, and Klaus SchmidtHebbel
Correcting “Beyond the Cycle:” Accounting for Asset Prices in Structural Fiscal Balances
Estelle X. Liu, Todd Mattina, and Tigran Poghosyan
Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh
Leandro Medina
A Network Analysis of Sectoral Accounts: Identifying Sectoral Interlinkages in G-4 Economies
Luiza Antoun de Almeida
It’s Not All Fiscal: Effects of Income, Fiscal Policy, and Wealth on Private Consumption
Laura Jaramillo and Alexandre Chailloux
China’s Growth: Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears?
Wojciech Maliszewski and Longmei Zhang
(Not) Dancing Together: Monetary Policy Stance and the Government Spending Multiplier
Vincent Belinga and Constant Lonkeng Ngouana
New Energy Sources for Jordan: Macroeconomic Impact and Policy Considerations
Andrea Gamba
U.S. Total Factor Productivity Slowdown: Evidence from the U.S. States
Roberto Cardarelli and Lusine Lusinyan
Sub-National Government’s Risk Premia: Does Fiscal Performance Matter?
Sergio Sola and Geremia Palomba
Base Erosion, Profit Shifting and Developing Countries
Ernesto Crivelli, Ruud A. de Mooij, and Michael Keen
Make in India: Which Exports Can Drive the Next Wave of Growth?
Rahul Anand, Kalpana Kochhar, and Saurabh Mishra
An Overview of Islamic Finance
Mumtaz Hussain, Asghar Shahmoradi, and Rima Turk
Crime and the Economy in Mexican States: Heterogeneous Panel Estimates (1993–2012)
Concepción Verdugo Yepes, Peter L. Pedroni, and Xingwei Hu
Poverty, Growth, and Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Did the Walk Match the Talk under the PRSP Approach?
Daouda Sembene
Experiences with Macroprudential Policy—Five Case Studies
Salim M. Darbar and Xiaoyong Wu
Strengthening Fiscal Frameworks and Improving the Spending Mix in Small States
Ezequiel Cabezon, Patrizia Tumbarello, and Yiqun Wu
Enhancing Macroeconomic Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change in the Small States of the Pacific
Ezequiel Cabezon, Leni Hunter, Patrizia Tumbarello, Kazuaki Washimi, and Yiqun Wu
Pension Reforms in Mauritius: Fair and Fast—Balancing Social Protection and Fiscal Sustainability
Mauricio Soto, Vimal Thakoor, and Martin Petri
Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Why Knowing Your Lender Matters More Than Fundamentals
Eugenio Cerutti, Stijn Claessens, and Damien Puy
Gauging Housing Supply in Canada: A Stock Approach
Julien Reynaud
Monetary Policy in India: Transmission to Bank Interest Rates
Sonali Das
Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Panel Approach
Gustavo Adler, Noemie Lisack, and Rui Mano
The Leap of the Tiger: How Malaysia Can Escape the Middle-Income Trap
Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov
Inflation-Forecast Targeting: Applying the Principle of Transparency
Kevin Clinton, Charles Freedman, Michel Juillard, Ondra Kamenik, Douglas Laxton, and Hou Wang
Global Food Prices and Domestic Inflation: Some Cross-Country Evidence
Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, John Simon, and Susan Wachter
Avoiding Dark Corners: A Robust Monetary Policy Framework for the United States
Ali Alichi, Kevin Clinton, Charles Freedman, Ondra Kamenik, Michel Juillard, Douglas Laxton, Jarkko Turunen, and Hou Wang
Lower for Longer: Neutral Rates in the United States
Andrea Pescatori and Jarkko Turunen
The Journey to Inflation Targeting: Easier Said than Done the Case for Transitional Arrangements along the road
Bernard Laurens, Kelly Eckhold, Darryl King, Nils Øyvind Mæhle, Abdul Naseer, and Alain Durré
What Really Drives Public Debt: A Holistic Approach
Pablo Anaya and Alex Pienkowski
Estimation and Out-of-Sample Prediction of Sudden Stops: Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other?
Fabio Comelli
Does Easing Monetary Policy Increase Financial Instability?
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and Alessandro Rebucci
Assessing Default Risks for Chinese Firms: A Lost Cause?
Daniel Law and Shaun K. Roache
Global Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Markets
Christian Ebeke and Annette Kyobe
Systemic Risk: A New Trade-Off for Monetary Policy?
Stefan Laseen, Andrea Pescatori, and Jarkko Turunen
The Macroeconomic Relevance of Credit Flows: An Exploration of U.S. Data
Alexander Herman, Deniz Igan, and Juan Sole
A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States
Ali Alichi
How Does Post-Crisis Bank Capital Adequacy Affect Firm Investment?
Yangfan Sun, Hui Tong
Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests: Progress So Far and the Way Forward
Dimitri G. Demekas
Designing Legal Frameworks for Public Debt Management
Elsie Addo Awadzi
What Slice of the Pie? The Corporate Bond Market Boom in Emerging Economies
Diana Ayala Pena, Milan Nedeljkovic, and Christian Saborowski
Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers
Alexei Kireyev and Andrei Leonidov
Banks in the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model
Michal Andrle, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton, and Dirk Muir
China’s Labor Market in the “New Normal”
Raphael W. Lam, Xiaoguang Liu, and Alfred Schipke
The Quest for the Holy Grail: Efficient and Equitable Fiscal Consolidation in India
Chadi Abdallah, David Coady, Sanjeev Gupta, and Emine Hanedar
Financial Factors: Implications for Output Gaps
Pau Rabanal and Marzie Taheri Sanjani
LTV and DTI Limits—Going Granular
Luis I. Jacome H. and Srobona Mitra
Emerging Market Heterogeneity: Insights from Cluster and Taxonomy Analysis
Zhongxia Zhang and Yuan Gao
The Dog That Didn’t Bark: The Strange Case of Domestic Policy Cooperation in the “New Normal”
Tamim Bayoumi
The Impact of IMF-Supported Programs on FDI in Low-income Countries
Ali J. Al-sadiq
Should Korea Worry about a Permanently Weak Yen?
Jack Ree, Gee Hee Hong, and Seoeun Choi
Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?
Olivier J. Blanchard, Gustavo Adler, and Irineu E. Carvalho Filho
Drivers of Financial Integration—Implications for Asia
Nasha Ananchotikul and Shi Piao, Edda Zoli
Price and Income Elasticity of Indian Exports—The Role of Supply-Side Bottlenecks
Mehdi Raissi and, Volodymyr Tulin
The German Labor Market Reforms and Post-Unemployment Earnings
Niklas Engbom, Enrica Detragiache, and Faezeh Raei
Joining the Club? Procyclicality of Private Capital Inflows in Low Income Developing Countries
Juliana Dutra Araujo, Antonio David, Carlos van Hombeeck, and Chris Papageorgiou
Macroeconomic Challenges of Structural Transformation: Public Investment, Growth and Debt Sustainability in Sierra Leone
Lacina Balma and Mthuli Ncube
Systemic Risk, Aggregate Demand, and Commodity Prices
Javier Gómez-Pineda, Dominique M. Guillaume, and Kadir Tanyeri
From Systemic Banking Crises to Fiscal Costs: Risk Factors
David Amaglobeli, Nicolas End, Mariusz Jarmuzek, and Geremia Palomba
Default Premium
Luis Catão and Rui Mano
Does Public Sector Inefficiency Constrain Firm Productivity: Evidence from Italian Provinces
Raffaela Giordano, Sergi Lanau, Pietro Tommasino, and Petia Topalova
Household Financial Access and Risk Sharing in Nigeria
Stacy Carlson, Era Dabla-Norris, Mika Saito, and Yu Shi
A Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Uruguay
Rafael Portillo and Yulia Ustyugova
Transforming Non-Renewable Resource Economies (NREs)
Bill Battaile and Saurabh Mishra
Fiscal Deficit and Public Debt in the Western Balkans: 15 Years of Economic Transition
Zsoka Koczan
What Matters for Financial Development and Stability?
Raja Almarzoqi, Sami Ben Naceur, and Akshay Kotak
Institutions and Growth: A GMM/IV Panel VAR Approach
Carlos Góes
Now or Later? The Political Economy of Public Investment in Democracies
Sanjeev Gupta, Estelle X. Liu, and Carlos Mulas-Granados
Deflation and Public Finances: Evidence from the Historical Records
Nicolas End, Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba, G. Terrier, and Renaud Duplay
Does a Regional Trade Agreement Lessen or Exacerbate Growth Volatility? An Empirical Investigation
Kangni Kpodar and Patrick A. Imam
Estimation of Drivers of Public Education Expenditure: Baumol’s Effect Revisited
Manabu Nose
Collateral Damage: Dollar Strength and Emerging Markets’ Growth
Pablo Druck, Nicolas E. Magud, and Rodrigo Mariscal
Filling the Gap: Infrastructure Investment in Brazil
Mercedes Garcia-Escribano, Carlos Góes, and Izabela Karpowicz
Foreign Help Wanted: Easing Japan’s Labor Shortages
Giovanni Ganelli and Naoko Miake
Price Expectations and the U.S. Housing Boom
Pascal Towbin and Sebastian Weber
Production Offshoring and Investment by Japanese Firms
Joong Shik Kang and Shi Piao
IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website: http://www.imf.org/research.