Abstract
The June 2015 Research Bulletin features summaries and updates on current research topics at the IMF.
Working Paper 15/33
On the First-Round Effects of International Food Price Shocks: the Role of the Asset Market Structure
Rafael Portillo; Luis-Felipe Zanna
Working Paper 15/34
ASEAN Financial Integration
Geert Almekinders; Alex Mourmouras; Jian-Ping Zhou;
Satoshi Fukuda
Working Paper 15/35
Private Sector Deleveraging and Growth Following Busts
Sally Chen; Minsuk Kim; Marijn Otte; Kevin Wiseman;
Aleksandra Zdzienicka
Working Paper 15/36
Uncertainty and Unemployment: The Effects of Aggregate and Sectoral Channels
Sangyup Choi; Prakash Loungani
Working Paper 15/37
Value of WTO Trade Agreements in a New Keynesian Model
Giovanni Ganelli; Juha Tervala
Working Paper 15/38
Financial Decisions and Investment Outcomes in Developing Countries: The Role of Institutions
Rima Turk
Working Paper 15/39
A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment
Laurence M. Ball; Sandeep Mazumder
Working Paper 15/40
The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country
Romain Houssa; Jolan Mohimont; Christopher Otrok
Working Paper 15/41
Are Islamic Banks More Resilient During Financial Panics?
Moazzam Farooq; Sajjad Zaheer
Working Paper 15/42
Asia’s Quest for Inclusive Growth Revisited
Chie Aoyagi; Giovanni Ganelli
Working Paper 15/43
Are Foreign Banks a ‘Safe Haven’? Evidence from Past Banking Crises
Gustavo Adler; Eugenio Cerutti
Working Paper 15/44
Is Banks’ Home Bias Good or Bad for Public Debt Sustainability?
Tamon Asonuma; Said Bakhache; Heiko Hesse
Working Paper 15/45
Made in Mexico: Energy Reform and Manufacturing Growth
Jorge Alvarez; Fabian Valencia
Working Paper 15/46
Interconnectedness, Systemic Crises, and Recessions
Marco A. Espinosa-Vega; Steven Russell
Working Paper 15/47
Central and Commercial Bank Balance Sheet Risk Before, During, and After the Global Financial Crisis
Joseph Crowley
Working Paper 15/48
The Level of Productivity in Traded and Non-Traded Sectors for a Large Panel of Countries
Rui Mano; Marola Castillo
Working Paper 15/49
Remittances and Macroeconomic Volatility in African Countries
Ahmat Jidoud
Working Paper 15/50
A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies
Zoltan Jakab; Pavel Lukyantsau; Shengzu Wang
Working Paper 15/51
Structural Transformation — How Does Thailand Compare?
Vladimir Klyuev
Working Paper 15/52
How Delaying Fiscal Consolidation Affects the Present Value of GDP
Kevin Fletcher; Damiano Sandri
Working Paper 15/53
Pressing the Indian Growth Accelerator: Policy Imperatives
Rakesh Mohan; Muneesh Kapur
Working Paper 15/54
How Inclusive Is Abenomics?
Chie Aoyagi; Giovanni Ganelli; Kentaro Murayama
Working Paper 15/55
Women Workers in India: Why So Few Among So Many?
Sonali Das; Sonali Jain-Chandra; Kalpana Kochhar; Naresh Kumar
Working Paper 15/56
What Can Boost Female Labor Force Participation in Asia?
Yuko Kinoshita; Fang Guo
Working Paper 15/57
The Role of Bank Capital in Bank Holding Companies’ Decisions
Adolfo Barajas; Thomas F. Cosimano; Dalia Hakura; Sebastian Roelands
Working Paper 15/58
A Stock-Flow Accounting Model of the Labor Market: An Application to Israel
Yossi Yakhin; Natalya Presman
Working Paper 15/59
Fiscal Decentralization and the Efficiency of Public Service Delivery
Moussé Sow; Ivohasina Fizara Razafimahefa
Working Paper 15/60
Central Banking in Latin America: From the Gold Standard to the Golden Years
Luis Ignacio Jácome
Working Paper 15/61
The Use and Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policies: New Evidence
Eugenio Cerutti; Stijn Claessens; Luc Laeven
Working Paper 15/62
Estimating Potential Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia
Pritha Mitra; Amr Hosny; Gohar Abajyan; Mark Fischer
Working Paper 15/63
Soft Power and Exchange Rate Volatility
Serhan Cevik; Richard Harris; Fatih Yilmaz
Working Paper 15/64
The Flexible System of Global Models – FSGM
Michal Andrle; Patrick Blagrave; Pedro Espaillat; Keiko Honjo; Ben Hunt; Mika Kortelainen; René Lalonde; Douglas Laxton; Eleonara Mavroeidi; Dirk Muir; Susanna Mursula; Stephen Snudden
Working Paper 15/65
Uncertainty and Investment: The Financial Intermediary Balance Sheet Channel
Sophia Chen
Working Paper 15/66
China: How Can Revenue Reforms Contribute to Inclusive and Sustainable Growth?
W. Raphael Lam and Philippe Wingender
Working Paper 15/67
Playing by the Rules: Reforming Fiscal Governance in Europe
Luc Eyraud; Tao Wu
Working Paper 15/68
Growing (Un)equal: Fiscal Policy and Income Inequality in China and BRIC+
Serhan Cevik; Carolina Correa-Caro
Working Paper 15/69
Investment Scaling-up and the Role of Government: The Case of Benin
Matteo Ghilardi; Sergio Sola
Working Paper 15/70
Spillovers in the Nordic Countries
Borislava Mircheva; Dirk Muir
Working Paper 15/71
Fiscal Multipliers in Ukraine
Pritha Mitra; Tigran Poghosyan
Working Paper 15/72
Assessing China’s Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities
Mali Chivakul; Raphael W. Lam
Working Paper 15/73
Electronic Fiscal Devices (EFDs): An Empirical Study of their Impact on Taxpayer Compliance and Administrative Efficiency
Peter Casey; Patricio Castro
Working Paper 15/74
Frontiers of Monetary Policymaking: Adding the Exchange Rate as a Tool to Combat Deflationary Risks in the Czech Republic
Ali Alichi; Jaromir Benes; Joshua Felman; Irene Feng; Charles Freedman; Douglas Laxton; Evan Tanner; David Vavra; Hou Wang
Working Paper 15/75
How Did Markets React to Stress Tests?
Bertrand Candelon; Amadou N. R. Sy
Working Paper 15/76
Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or Not?
Ravi Balakrishnan; Mai Dao; Juan Sole; Jeremy Zook
Working Paper 15/77
Investment in Emerging Markets: We Are Not in Kansas Anymore… Or Are We?
Nicolas E. Magud; Sebastian Sosa
Working Paper 15/78
Macroprudential Policy and Labor Market Dynamics in Emerging Economies
Alan Finkelstein Shapiro; Andres Gonzalez
Working Paper 15/79
A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output
Patrick Blagrave; Roberto Garcia-Saltos; Douglas Laxton; Fan Zhang
Working Paper 15/80
Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset
Andrés Fernández; Michael W. Klein; Alessandro Rebucci; Martin Schindler; Martin Uribe
Working Paper 15/81
Is Islamic Banking Good for Growth?
Patrick A. Imam; Kangni Kpodar
Working Paper 15/82
Hong Kong’s Growth Synchronization with China and the U.S.: A Trend and Cycle Analysis
Dong He; Wei Liao; Tommy Wu
Working Paper 15/83
Do Resource Windfalls Improve the Standard of Living in Sub-Saharan African Countries?: Evidence from a Panel of Countries
Munseob Lee; Cheikh A. Gueye
Working Paper 15/84
Understanding Residential Real Estate in China
Mali Chivakul; Raphael W. Lam; Xiaoguang Liu; Wojciech Maliszewski; Alfred Schipke
Working Paper 15/85
Financial Crisis, US Unconventional Monetary Policy, and International Spillovers
Qianying Chen; Andrew Filardo; Dong He; Feng Zhu
Working Paper 15/86
Non-FDI Capital Inflows in Low-Income Developing Countries: Catching the Wave?
Juliana Dutra Araujo; Antonio David; Carlos van Hombeeck; Chris Papageorgiou
Working Paper 15/87
Determinants of Bank Interest Margins in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Raja Almarzoqi; Sami Ben Naceur
Working Paper 15/88
What has Capital Liberalization Meant for Economic and Financial Statistics
Robert M. Heath Working Paper 15/89
Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño
Paul Cashin; Kamiar Mohaddes; Mehdi Raissi
Working Paper 15/90
From Natural Resource Boom to Sustainable Economic Growth: Lessons for Mongolia
Pranav Gupta; Grace Bin Li; Jiangyan Yu
Working Paper 15/91
The Role of Productivity, Transportation Costs, and Barriers to Intersectoral Mobility in Structural Transformation
Cem Karayalcin; Mihaela Pintea
Working Paper 15/92
The Potential Macroeconomic Impact of the Unconventional Oil and Gas Boom in the United States
Ben Hunt; Dirk Muir; Martin Sommer
Working Paper 15/93
Too Much of a Good Thing? Prudent Management of Inflows under Economic Citizenship Programs
Xin Xu; Ahmed El-Ashram; Judith Gold
Working Paper 15/94
How Important Are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates?
Sohrab Rafiq
Working Paper 15/95
The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment: Evidence from Advanced Economies
Abdul Abiad; Davide Furceri; Petia Topalova
Working Paper 15/96
What Drives Interest Rate Spreads in Pacific Island Countries? An Empirical Investigation
Fazurin Jamaludin; Vladimir Klyuev; Anuk Serechetapongse
Working Paper 15/97
Determinants of Firm Profitability in Colombia’s Manufacturing Sector: Exchange Rate or Structural?
Naomi Griffin
Working Paper 15/98
Tax Policy in MENA Countries: Looking Back and Forward
Mario Mansour
Working Paper 15/99
How To Improve the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union
Alexei Kireyev
Working Paper 15/100
Does Basel Compliance Matter for Bank Performance?
Rym Ayadi; Sami Ben Naceur; Barbara Casu; Barry Quinn
Working Paper 15/101
Energy Subsidies and Public Social Spending: Theory and Evidence
Christian Ebeke; Constant Lonkeng Ngouana
Working Paper 15/102
Are African Households Heterogeneous Agents?: Stylized Facts on Patterns of Consumption, Employment, Income, and Earnings for Macroeconomic Modelers
Louise Fox
Working Paper 15/103
High Liquidity Creation and Bank Failures
Zuzana Fungacova; Rima Turk; Laurent Weill
Working Paper 15/104
Domestic and Foreign Mutual Funds in Mexico: Do They Behave Differently?
Jasmine Xiao
IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website: http://www.imf.org/research.