The June 2015 Research Bulletin features summaries and updates on current research topics at the IMF.


The June 2015 Research Bulletin features summaries and updates on current research topics at the IMF.

Working Paper 15/33

On the First-Round Effects of International Food Price Shocks: the Role of the Asset Market Structure

Rafael Portillo; Luis-Felipe Zanna

Working Paper 15/34

ASEAN Financial Integration

Geert Almekinders; Alex Mourmouras; Jian-Ping Zhou;

Satoshi Fukuda

Working Paper 15/35

Private Sector Deleveraging and Growth Following Busts

Sally Chen; Minsuk Kim; Marijn Otte; Kevin Wiseman;

Aleksandra Zdzienicka

Working Paper 15/36

Uncertainty and Unemployment: The Effects of Aggregate and Sectoral Channels

Sangyup Choi; Prakash Loungani

Working Paper 15/37

Value of WTO Trade Agreements in a New Keynesian Model

Giovanni Ganelli; Juha Tervala

Working Paper 15/38

Financial Decisions and Investment Outcomes in Developing Countries: The Role of Institutions

Rima Turk

Working Paper 15/39

A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment

Laurence M. Ball; Sandeep Mazumder

Working Paper 15/40

The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country

Romain Houssa; Jolan Mohimont; Christopher Otrok

Working Paper 15/41

Are Islamic Banks More Resilient During Financial Panics?

Moazzam Farooq; Sajjad Zaheer

Working Paper 15/42

Asia’s Quest for Inclusive Growth Revisited

Chie Aoyagi; Giovanni Ganelli

Working Paper 15/43

Are Foreign Banks a ‘Safe Haven’? Evidence from Past Banking Crises

Gustavo Adler; Eugenio Cerutti

Working Paper 15/44

Is Banks’ Home Bias Good or Bad for Public Debt Sustainability?

Tamon Asonuma; Said Bakhache; Heiko Hesse

Working Paper 15/45

Made in Mexico: Energy Reform and Manufacturing Growth

Jorge Alvarez; Fabian Valencia

Working Paper 15/46

Interconnectedness, Systemic Crises, and Recessions

Marco A. Espinosa-Vega; Steven Russell

Working Paper 15/47

Central and Commercial Bank Balance Sheet Risk Before, During, and After the Global Financial Crisis

Joseph Crowley

Working Paper 15/48

The Level of Productivity in Traded and Non-Traded Sectors for a Large Panel of Countries

Rui Mano; Marola Castillo

Working Paper 15/49

Remittances and Macroeconomic Volatility in African Countries

Ahmat Jidoud

Working Paper 15/50

A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies

Zoltan Jakab; Pavel Lukyantsau; Shengzu Wang

Working Paper 15/51

Structural Transformation — How Does Thailand Compare?

Vladimir Klyuev

Working Paper 15/52

How Delaying Fiscal Consolidation Affects the Present Value of GDP

Kevin Fletcher; Damiano Sandri

Working Paper 15/53

Pressing the Indian Growth Accelerator: Policy Imperatives

Rakesh Mohan; Muneesh Kapur

Working Paper 15/54

How Inclusive Is Abenomics?

Chie Aoyagi; Giovanni Ganelli; Kentaro Murayama

Working Paper 15/55

Women Workers in India: Why So Few Among So Many?

Sonali Das; Sonali Jain-Chandra; Kalpana Kochhar; Naresh Kumar

Working Paper 15/56

What Can Boost Female Labor Force Participation in Asia?

Yuko Kinoshita; Fang Guo

Working Paper 15/57

The Role of Bank Capital in Bank Holding Companies’ Decisions

Adolfo Barajas; Thomas F. Cosimano; Dalia Hakura; Sebastian Roelands

Working Paper 15/58

A Stock-Flow Accounting Model of the Labor Market: An Application to Israel

Yossi Yakhin; Natalya Presman

Working Paper 15/59

Fiscal Decentralization and the Efficiency of Public Service Delivery

Moussé Sow; Ivohasina Fizara Razafimahefa

Working Paper 15/60

Central Banking in Latin America: From the Gold Standard to the Golden Years

Luis Ignacio Jácome

Working Paper 15/61

The Use and Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policies: New Evidence

Eugenio Cerutti; Stijn Claessens; Luc Laeven

Working Paper 15/62

Estimating Potential Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia

Pritha Mitra; Amr Hosny; Gohar Abajyan; Mark Fischer

Working Paper 15/63

Soft Power and Exchange Rate Volatility

Serhan Cevik; Richard Harris; Fatih Yilmaz

Working Paper 15/64

The Flexible System of Global Models – FSGM

Michal Andrle; Patrick Blagrave; Pedro Espaillat; Keiko Honjo; Ben Hunt; Mika Kortelainen; René Lalonde; Douglas Laxton; Eleonara Mavroeidi; Dirk Muir; Susanna Mursula; Stephen Snudden

Working Paper 15/65

Uncertainty and Investment: The Financial Intermediary Balance Sheet Channel

Sophia Chen

Working Paper 15/66

China: How Can Revenue Reforms Contribute to Inclusive and Sustainable Growth?

W. Raphael Lam and Philippe Wingender

Working Paper 15/67

Playing by the Rules: Reforming Fiscal Governance in Europe

Luc Eyraud; Tao Wu

Working Paper 15/68

Growing (Un)equal: Fiscal Policy and Income Inequality in China and BRIC+

Serhan Cevik; Carolina Correa-Caro

Working Paper 15/69

Investment Scaling-up and the Role of Government: The Case of Benin

Matteo Ghilardi; Sergio Sola

Working Paper 15/70

Spillovers in the Nordic Countries

Borislava Mircheva; Dirk Muir

Working Paper 15/71

Fiscal Multipliers in Ukraine

Pritha Mitra; Tigran Poghosyan

Working Paper 15/72

Assessing China’s Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities

Mali Chivakul; Raphael W. Lam

Working Paper 15/73

Electronic Fiscal Devices (EFDs): An Empirical Study of their Impact on Taxpayer Compliance and Administrative Efficiency

Peter Casey; Patricio Castro

Working Paper 15/74

Frontiers of Monetary Policymaking: Adding the Exchange Rate as a Tool to Combat Deflationary Risks in the Czech Republic

Ali Alichi; Jaromir Benes; Joshua Felman; Irene Feng; Charles Freedman; Douglas Laxton; Evan Tanner; David Vavra; Hou Wang

Working Paper 15/75

How Did Markets React to Stress Tests?

Bertrand Candelon; Amadou N. R. Sy

Working Paper 15/76

Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or Not?

Ravi Balakrishnan; Mai Dao; Juan Sole; Jeremy Zook

Working Paper 15/77

Investment in Emerging Markets: We Are Not in Kansas Anymore… Or Are We?

Nicolas E. Magud; Sebastian Sosa

Working Paper 15/78

Macroprudential Policy and Labor Market Dynamics in Emerging Economies

Alan Finkelstein Shapiro; Andres Gonzalez

Working Paper 15/79

A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output

Patrick Blagrave; Roberto Garcia-Saltos; Douglas Laxton; Fan Zhang

Working Paper 15/80

Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset

Andrés Fernández; Michael W. Klein; Alessandro Rebucci; Martin Schindler; Martin Uribe

Working Paper 15/81

Is Islamic Banking Good for Growth?

Patrick A. Imam; Kangni Kpodar

Working Paper 15/82

Hong Kong’s Growth Synchronization with China and the U.S.: A Trend and Cycle Analysis

Dong He; Wei Liao; Tommy Wu

Working Paper 15/83

Do Resource Windfalls Improve the Standard of Living in Sub-Saharan African Countries?: Evidence from a Panel of Countries

Munseob Lee; Cheikh A. Gueye

Working Paper 15/84

Understanding Residential Real Estate in China

Mali Chivakul; Raphael W. Lam; Xiaoguang Liu; Wojciech Maliszewski; Alfred Schipke

Working Paper 15/85

Financial Crisis, US Unconventional Monetary Policy, and International Spillovers

Qianying Chen; Andrew Filardo; Dong He; Feng Zhu

Working Paper 15/86

Non-FDI Capital Inflows in Low-Income Developing Countries: Catching the Wave?

Juliana Dutra Araujo; Antonio David; Carlos van Hombeeck; Chris Papageorgiou

Working Paper 15/87

Determinants of Bank Interest Margins in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Raja Almarzoqi; Sami Ben Naceur

Working Paper 15/88

What has Capital Liberalization Meant for Economic and Financial Statistics

Robert M. Heath Working Paper 15/89

Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño

Paul Cashin; Kamiar Mohaddes; Mehdi Raissi

Working Paper 15/90

From Natural Resource Boom to Sustainable Economic Growth: Lessons for Mongolia

Pranav Gupta; Grace Bin Li; Jiangyan Yu

Working Paper 15/91

The Role of Productivity, Transportation Costs, and Barriers to Intersectoral Mobility in Structural Transformation

Cem Karayalcin; Mihaela Pintea

Working Paper 15/92

The Potential Macroeconomic Impact of the Unconventional Oil and Gas Boom in the United States

Ben Hunt; Dirk Muir; Martin Sommer

Working Paper 15/93

Too Much of a Good Thing? Prudent Management of Inflows under Economic Citizenship Programs

Xin Xu; Ahmed El-Ashram; Judith Gold

Working Paper 15/94

How Important Are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates?

Sohrab Rafiq

Working Paper 15/95

The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment: Evidence from Advanced Economies

Abdul Abiad; Davide Furceri; Petia Topalova

Working Paper 15/96

What Drives Interest Rate Spreads in Pacific Island Countries? An Empirical Investigation

Fazurin Jamaludin; Vladimir Klyuev; Anuk Serechetapongse

Working Paper 15/97

Determinants of Firm Profitability in Colombia’s Manufacturing Sector: Exchange Rate or Structural?

Naomi Griffin

Working Paper 15/98

Tax Policy in MENA Countries: Looking Back and Forward

Mario Mansour

Working Paper 15/99

How To Improve the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union

Alexei Kireyev

Working Paper 15/100

Does Basel Compliance Matter for Bank Performance?

Rym Ayadi; Sami Ben Naceur; Barbara Casu; Barry Quinn

Working Paper 15/101

Energy Subsidies and Public Social Spending: Theory and Evidence

Christian Ebeke; Constant Lonkeng Ngouana

Working Paper 15/102

Are African Households Heterogeneous Agents?: Stylized Facts on Patterns of Consumption, Employment, Income, and Earnings for Macroeconomic Modelers

Louise Fox

Working Paper 15/103

High Liquidity Creation and Bank Failures

Zuzana Fungacova; Rima Turk; Laurent Weill

Working Paper 15/104

Domestic and Foreign Mutual Funds in Mexico: Do They Behave Differently?

Jasmine Xiao

IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website:

IMF Research Bulletin, June 2015
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.