The IMF Research Bulletin provides updates on recent research activities and publications of the staff of the IMF.


The IMF Research Bulletin provides updates on recent research activities and publications of the staff of the IMF.

Working Paper 14/206

Does Conditionality in IMF-Supported Programs Promote Revenue Reform?

Ernesto Crivelli; Sanjeev Gupta

Working Paper 14/207

The Transmission of Liquidity Shocks: The Role of Internal Capital Markets and Bank Funding Strategies

Philippe D. Karam; Ouarda Merrouche; Moez Souissi; Rima Turk

Working Paper 14/208

Identifying Speculative Bubbles: A Two-Pillar Surveillance Framework

Bradley Jones

Working Paper 14/209

Vertical Fiscal Imbalances and the Accumulation of Government Debt

Inaki Aldasoro; Mike Seiferling

Working Paper 14/210

Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy

Jong-Won Yoon; Jinill Kim; Jungjin Lee

Working Paper 14/211

Regional Labor Market Adjustments in the United States

Mai Dao; Davide Furceri; Prakash Loungani

Working Paper 14/212

Borrower Protection and the Supply of Credit: Evidence from Foreclosure Laws

Jihad Dagher; Yangfan Sun

Working Paper 14/213

Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions

Salvatore Dell’Erba; Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro; Ksenia Koloskova

Working Paper 14/214

An Overview of Macroprudential Policy Tools

Stijn Claessens

Working Paper 14/215

Global Monetary Tightening: Emerging Markets Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Crises

Julio Escolano; Christina Kolerus; Constant Lonkeng Ngouana

Working Paper 14/216

A Fiscal Job? An Analysis of Fiscal Policy and the Labor Market

Elva Bova; Christina Kolerus; Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba

Working Paper 14/217

Motives and Effectiveness of Forex Interventions: Evidence from Peru

Melesse Tashu

Working Paper 14/218

Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation

Samya Beidas-Strom; Andrea Pescatori

Working Paper 14/219

Regulation and Supervision of Islamic Banks

Aledjandro Lopez Mejia; Suliman Aljabrin; Rachid Awad; Mohamed Norat; Inwon Song

Working Paper 14/220

Islamic Banking Regulation and Supervision: Survey Results and Challenges

Inwon Song; Carel Oosthuizen

Working Paper 14/221

Cashing in for Growth: Corporate Cash Holdings as an Opportunity for Investment in Japan

Galen Sher

Working Paper 14/222

Does Inflation Slow Long-Run Growth in India?

Kamiar Mohaddes; Mehdi Raissi

Working Paper 14/223

Private Saving Accelerations

Christian Ebeke

Working Paper 14/224

Demand Composition and Income Distribution

David Pothier; Damien Puy

Working Paper 14/225

The Rich and the Great Recession

Bas B. Bakker; Joshua Felman

Working Paper 14/226

Resolving Residential Mortgage Distress: Time to Modify?

Jochen R. Andritzky

Working Paper 14/227

Das Public Kapital: How Much Would Higher German Public Investment Help Germany and the Euro Area?

Selim Elekdag; Dirk Muir

Working Paper 14/228

Taxing Fossil Fuels under Speculative Storage

Semih Tumen; Deren Unalmis; Ibrahim Unalmis; D. Filiz Unsal

Working Paper 14/229

Revisiting Tourism Flows to the Caribbean: What is Driving Arrivals?

Nicole Laframboise; Nkunde Mwase; Joonkyu Park; Yingke Zhou

Working Paper 14/230

Does Lower Debt Buy Higher Growth? The Impact of Debt Relief Initiatives on Growth

Sandra Marcelino; Ivetta Hakobyan

Working Paper 14/231

Safe Debt and Uncertainty in Emerging Markets: An Application to South Africa

Magnus Saxegaard

Working Paper 14/232

Corporate Vulnerabilities in India and Banks’ Loan Performance

Peter Lindner; Sung Eun Jung

Working Paper 14/233

Fragmentation and Vertical Fiscal Imbalances Lessons from Moldova

Serhan Cevik

Working Paper 14/234

The Development of Local Capital Markets: Rationale and Challenges

Luc Laeven

Working Paper 14/235

A Simple Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer

Daniel C. Hardy; Philipp Hochreiter

Working Paper 14/236

The Size Distribution of Manufacturing Plants and Development

Siddharth Kothari

Working Paper 14/237

Centrality-Based Capital Allocations

Adrian Alter; Ben Craig; Peter Raupach

Working Paper 14/238

Financial Frictions in Data: Evidence and Impact

Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Working Paper 14/239

Market Signals and the Cost of Credit Risk Protection: An Analysis of CDS Settlement Auctions

L. Zanforlin; Nobuyuki Kanazawa

Working Paper 14/240

Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets: Different This Time?

Jiaqian Chen; Tommaso Mancini Griffoli; Ratna Sahay

Working Paper 14/241

Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa—A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis

Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko; Mehdi Hosseinkouchack; Alexis Meyer-Cirkel

Working Paper 15/1

Shedding Light on Shadow Banking

Artak Harutyunyan; Alexander Massara; Giovanni Ugazio; Goran Amidzic; Richard Walton

Working Paper 15/2

Increasing Productivity Growth in Middle Income Countries

Aidar Abdychev; La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul; Andrew W. Jonelis; Lamin Leigh; Ashwin Moheeput; Friska Parulian; Ara Stepanyan; Albert Touna Mama

Working Paper 15/3

Identifying Binding Constraints to Growth: Does Firm Size Matter?

Mauricio Vargas

Working Paper 15/4

Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses

Vivek Ghosal; Yang Ye

Working Paper 15/6

The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?

Cristina Constantinescu; Aaditya Mattoo; Michele Ruta

Working Paper 15/7

The Liquidation of Government Debt

Carmen Reinhart; M. Belen Sbrancia

Working Paper 15/8

A Volatility and Persistence-Based Core Inflation

Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho; Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo

Working Paper 15/9

Fiscal Transparency and the Performance of Government Financial Assets

Mike Seiferling; Shamsuddin Tareq

Working Paper 15/10

Corporate Financing Trends and Balance Sheet Risks in Latin America

Fabiano Rodrigues Bastos; Herman Kamil; Bennett Sutton

Working Paper 15/11

Credit Booms and Macroeconomic Dynamics: Stylized Facts and Lessons for Low-Income Countries

Marco Arena; Serpil Bouza; Era Dabla-Norris; Kerstin Gerling; Lamin Njie

Working Paper 15/12

Revisiting the Concept of Dollarization: The Global Financial Crisis and Dollarization in Low-Income Countries

Nkunde Mwase; Francis Y. Kumah

Working Paper 15/13

Governments’ Payment Discipline: The Macroeconomic Impact of Public Payment Delays and Arrears

Cristina Checherita-Westphal; Alexander Klemm; Paul Viefers

Working Paper 15/14

Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy

Francesco Grigoli; Alexander Herman; Andrew Swiston; Gabriel Di Bella

Working Paper 15/15

Does Supply or Demand Drive the Credit Cycle? Evidence from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe

Greetje Everaert; Natasha Xingyuan Che; Nan Geng; Bertrand Gruss; Gregorio Impavido; Yinqiu Lu; Christian Saborowski; Jérôme Vandenbussche; Li Zeng

Working Paper 15/16

Learning, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices

Marco Airaudo; Salvatore Nisticò; Luis-Felipe Zanna

Working Paper 15/17

Fiscal Policy Implications for Labor Market Outcomes in Middle-Income Countries

Ara Stepanyan; Lamin Leigh

Working Paper 15/18

The Effects of U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy on Asia Frontier Developing Economies

Sohrab Rafiq

Working Paper 15/19

IMF Lending and Banking Crises

Luca Papi; Andrea Presbitero; Alberto Zazzaro

Working Paper 15/20

A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)

Karim Barhoumi; Laurent Ferrara

Working Paper 15/21

Central Counterparties: Addressing Their Too Important to Fail Nature

Froukelien Wendt

Working Paper 15/22

Identifying Constraints to Financial Inclusion and Their Impact on GDP and Inequality: A Structural Framework for Policy

Era Dabla-Norris; Yan Ji; Robert Townsend; D. Filiz Unsal

Working Paper 15/23

Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies

Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi; Luis Felipe Cespedes; Alessandro Rebucci

Working Paper 15/24

A Strategy for Developing a Market for Nonperforming Loans in Italy

Nadège Jassaud; Kenneth Kang

Working Paper 15/25

Harnessing Resource Wealth for Inclusive Growth in Fragile States

Corinne Delechat; Will Clark; Pranav Gupta; Malangu Kabedi-Mbuyi; Mesmin Koulet-Vickot; Carla Macario; Toomas Orav; Manuel Rosales; Rene Tapsoba; Dmitry Zhdankin; Susan Yang

Working Paper 15/26

Drivers of Peru’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Is the Nuevo Sol a Commodity Currency?

Melesse Tashu

Working Paper 15/27

Asset Bubbles: Re-Thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management

Bradley Jones

Working Paper 15/28

Employment Impacts of Upstream Oil and Gas Investment in the United States

Mark Agerton; Peter Hartley; Kenneth Medlock III; Ted Temzelides

Working Paper 15/29

Expenditure Rules: Effective Tools for Sound Fiscal Policy?

Till Cordes; Tidiane Kinda; Priscilla S. Muthoora; Anke Weber

Working Paper 15/30

Energy Subsidies in Latin America and the Caribbean: Stocktaking and Policy Challenges

Gabriel Di Bella; Lawrence Norton; Joseph Ntamatungiro; Sumiko Ogawa; Issouf Samaké; Marika Santoro

Working Paper 15/31

Can Islamic Banking Increase Financial Inclusion?

Sami Ben Naceur; Adolfo Barajas; Alexander Massara

Working Paper 15/32

Investment in the Euro Area: Why Has It Been Weak?

Bergljot Barkbu; Pelin Berkmen; Pavel Lukyantsau; Sergejs Saksonovs; Hanni Schoelermann