Abstract
The IMF Research Bulletin provides updates on recent research activities and publications of the staff of the IMF.
Working Paper 14/206
Does Conditionality in IMF-Supported Programs Promote Revenue Reform?
Ernesto Crivelli; Sanjeev Gupta
Working Paper 14/207
The Transmission of Liquidity Shocks: The Role of Internal Capital Markets and Bank Funding Strategies
Philippe D. Karam; Ouarda Merrouche; Moez Souissi; Rima Turk
Working Paper 14/208
Identifying Speculative Bubbles: A Two-Pillar Surveillance Framework
Bradley Jones
Working Paper 14/209
Vertical Fiscal Imbalances and the Accumulation of Government Debt
Inaki Aldasoro; Mike Seiferling
Working Paper 14/210
Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy
Jong-Won Yoon; Jinill Kim; Jungjin Lee
Working Paper 14/211
Regional Labor Market Adjustments in the United States
Mai Dao; Davide Furceri; Prakash Loungani
Working Paper 14/212
Borrower Protection and the Supply of Credit: Evidence from Foreclosure Laws
Jihad Dagher; Yangfan Sun
Working Paper 14/213
Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions
Salvatore Dell’Erba; Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro; Ksenia Koloskova
Working Paper 14/214
An Overview of Macroprudential Policy Tools
Stijn Claessens
Working Paper 14/215
Global Monetary Tightening: Emerging Markets Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Crises
Julio Escolano; Christina Kolerus; Constant Lonkeng Ngouana
Working Paper 14/216
A Fiscal Job? An Analysis of Fiscal Policy and the Labor Market
Elva Bova; Christina Kolerus; Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba
Working Paper 14/217
Motives and Effectiveness of Forex Interventions: Evidence from Peru
Melesse Tashu
Working Paper 14/218
Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation
Samya Beidas-Strom; Andrea Pescatori
Working Paper 14/219
Regulation and Supervision of Islamic Banks
Aledjandro Lopez Mejia; Suliman Aljabrin; Rachid Awad; Mohamed Norat; Inwon Song
Working Paper 14/220
Islamic Banking Regulation and Supervision: Survey Results and Challenges
Inwon Song; Carel Oosthuizen
Working Paper 14/221
Cashing in for Growth: Corporate Cash Holdings as an Opportunity for Investment in Japan
Galen Sher
Working Paper 14/222
Does Inflation Slow Long-Run Growth in India?
Kamiar Mohaddes; Mehdi Raissi
Working Paper 14/223
Private Saving Accelerations
Christian Ebeke
Working Paper 14/224
Demand Composition and Income Distribution
David Pothier; Damien Puy
Working Paper 14/225
The Rich and the Great Recession
Bas B. Bakker; Joshua Felman
Working Paper 14/226
Resolving Residential Mortgage Distress: Time to Modify?
Jochen R. Andritzky
Working Paper 14/227
Das Public Kapital: How Much Would Higher German Public Investment Help Germany and the Euro Area?
Selim Elekdag; Dirk Muir
Working Paper 14/228
Taxing Fossil Fuels under Speculative Storage
Semih Tumen; Deren Unalmis; Ibrahim Unalmis; D. Filiz Unsal
Working Paper 14/229
Revisiting Tourism Flows to the Caribbean: What is Driving Arrivals?
Nicole Laframboise; Nkunde Mwase; Joonkyu Park; Yingke Zhou
Working Paper 14/230
Does Lower Debt Buy Higher Growth? The Impact of Debt Relief Initiatives on Growth
Sandra Marcelino; Ivetta Hakobyan
Working Paper 14/231
Safe Debt and Uncertainty in Emerging Markets: An Application to South Africa
Magnus Saxegaard
Working Paper 14/232
Corporate Vulnerabilities in India and Banks’ Loan Performance
Peter Lindner; Sung Eun Jung
Working Paper 14/233
Fragmentation and Vertical Fiscal Imbalances Lessons from Moldova
Serhan Cevik
Working Paper 14/234
The Development of Local Capital Markets: Rationale and Challenges
Luc Laeven
Working Paper 14/235
A Simple Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer
Daniel C. Hardy; Philipp Hochreiter
Working Paper 14/236
The Size Distribution of Manufacturing Plants and Development
Siddharth Kothari
Working Paper 14/237
Centrality-Based Capital Allocations
Adrian Alter; Ben Craig; Peter Raupach
Working Paper 14/238
Financial Frictions in Data: Evidence and Impact
Marzie Taheri Sanjani
Working Paper 14/239
Market Signals and the Cost of Credit Risk Protection: An Analysis of CDS Settlement Auctions
L. Zanforlin; Nobuyuki Kanazawa
Working Paper 14/240
Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets: Different This Time?
Jiaqian Chen; Tommaso Mancini Griffoli; Ratna Sahay
Working Paper 14/241
Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa—A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis
Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko; Mehdi Hosseinkouchack; Alexis Meyer-Cirkel
Working Paper 15/1
Shedding Light on Shadow Banking
Artak Harutyunyan; Alexander Massara; Giovanni Ugazio; Goran Amidzic; Richard Walton
Working Paper 15/2
Increasing Productivity Growth in Middle Income Countries
Aidar Abdychev; La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul; Andrew W. Jonelis; Lamin Leigh; Ashwin Moheeput; Friska Parulian; Ara Stepanyan; Albert Touna Mama
Working Paper 15/3
Identifying Binding Constraints to Growth: Does Firm Size Matter?
Mauricio Vargas
Working Paper 15/4
Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses
Vivek Ghosal; Yang Ye
Working Paper 15/6
The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?
Cristina Constantinescu; Aaditya Mattoo; Michele Ruta
Working Paper 15/7
The Liquidation of Government Debt
Carmen Reinhart; M. Belen Sbrancia
Working Paper 15/8
A Volatility and Persistence-Based Core Inflation
Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho; Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo
Working Paper 15/9
Fiscal Transparency and the Performance of Government Financial Assets
Mike Seiferling; Shamsuddin Tareq
Working Paper 15/10
Corporate Financing Trends and Balance Sheet Risks in Latin America
Fabiano Rodrigues Bastos; Herman Kamil; Bennett Sutton
Working Paper 15/11
Credit Booms and Macroeconomic Dynamics: Stylized Facts and Lessons for Low-Income Countries
Marco Arena; Serpil Bouza; Era Dabla-Norris; Kerstin Gerling; Lamin Njie
Working Paper 15/12
Revisiting the Concept of Dollarization: The Global Financial Crisis and Dollarization in Low-Income Countries
Nkunde Mwase; Francis Y. Kumah
Working Paper 15/13
Governments’ Payment Discipline: The Macroeconomic Impact of Public Payment Delays and Arrears
Cristina Checherita-Westphal; Alexander Klemm; Paul Viefers
Working Paper 15/14
Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy
Francesco Grigoli; Alexander Herman; Andrew Swiston; Gabriel Di Bella
Working Paper 15/15
Does Supply or Demand Drive the Credit Cycle? Evidence from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe
Greetje Everaert; Natasha Xingyuan Che; Nan Geng; Bertrand Gruss; Gregorio Impavido; Yinqiu Lu; Christian Saborowski; Jérôme Vandenbussche; Li Zeng
Working Paper 15/16
Learning, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices
Marco Airaudo; Salvatore Nisticò; Luis-Felipe Zanna
Working Paper 15/17
Fiscal Policy Implications for Labor Market Outcomes in Middle-Income Countries
Ara Stepanyan; Lamin Leigh
Working Paper 15/18
The Effects of U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy on Asia Frontier Developing Economies
Sohrab Rafiq
Working Paper 15/19
IMF Lending and Banking Crises
Luca Papi; Andrea Presbitero; Alberto Zazzaro
Working Paper 15/20
A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)
Karim Barhoumi; Laurent Ferrara
Working Paper 15/21
Central Counterparties: Addressing Their Too Important to Fail Nature
Froukelien Wendt
Working Paper 15/22
Identifying Constraints to Financial Inclusion and Their Impact on GDP and Inequality: A Structural Framework for Policy
Era Dabla-Norris; Yan Ji; Robert Townsend; D. Filiz Unsal
Working Paper 15/23
Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi; Luis Felipe Cespedes; Alessandro Rebucci
Working Paper 15/24
A Strategy for Developing a Market for Nonperforming Loans in Italy
Nadège Jassaud; Kenneth Kang
Working Paper 15/25
Harnessing Resource Wealth for Inclusive Growth in Fragile States
Corinne Delechat; Will Clark; Pranav Gupta; Malangu Kabedi-Mbuyi; Mesmin Koulet-Vickot; Carla Macario; Toomas Orav; Manuel Rosales; Rene Tapsoba; Dmitry Zhdankin; Susan Yang
Working Paper 15/26
Drivers of Peru’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Is the Nuevo Sol a Commodity Currency?
Melesse Tashu
Working Paper 15/27
Asset Bubbles: Re-Thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management
Bradley Jones
Working Paper 15/28
Employment Impacts of Upstream Oil and Gas Investment in the United States
Mark Agerton; Peter Hartley; Kenneth Medlock III; Ted Temzelides
Working Paper 15/29
Expenditure Rules: Effective Tools for Sound Fiscal Policy?
Till Cordes; Tidiane Kinda; Priscilla S. Muthoora; Anke Weber
Working Paper 15/30
Energy Subsidies in Latin America and the Caribbean: Stocktaking and Policy Challenges
Gabriel Di Bella; Lawrence Norton; Joseph Ntamatungiro; Sumiko Ogawa; Issouf Samaké; Marika Santoro
Working Paper 15/31
Can Islamic Banking Increase Financial Inclusion?
Sami Ben Naceur; Adolfo Barajas; Alexander Massara
Working Paper 15/32
Investment in the Euro Area: Why Has It Been Weak?
Bergljot Barkbu; Pelin Berkmen; Pavel Lukyantsau; Sergejs Saksonovs; Hanni Schoelermann