Abstract
The December 2015 IMF Research Bulletin features a sampling of key research from the IMF. The Research Summaries in this issue look at 'The Impact of Deflation and Lowflation on Fiscal Aggregates (Nicolas End, Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba, Gilbert Terrier, and Renaud Duplay); and 'Oil Exporters at the Crossroads: It Is High Time to Diversify' (Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov). Mahvash Saeed Qureshi provides an overview of the fifth Lindau Meeting in Economics in 'Meeting the Nobel Giants.' In the Q&A column on 'Seven Questions on Financial Frictions and the Sources of the Business Cycle, Marzie Taheri Sanjani looks at the driving forces of the business cycle and macroeconomic models. The top-viewed articles in 2014 from the IMF Economic Review are highlighted, along with recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and IMF publications.
Working Paper 14/144
Credit Quality in Developing Economies: Remittances to the Rescue?
Christian Ebeke; Boileau Loko; Arina Viseth
Working Paper 14/145
Capital Flow Deflection
Paolo Giordani; Michele Ruta; Hans Weisfeld; Ling Zhu
Working Paper 14/146
Friedman Redux: External Adjustment and Exchange Rate Flexibility
Atish R. Ghosh; Mahvash Saeed Qureshi; Charalambos G. Tsangarides
Working Paper 14/147
Do the Type of Sukuk and Choice of Shari’a Scholar Matter?
Christophe Godlewski; Rima Turk Ariss; Laurent Weill
Working Paper 14/148
Public Investment as an Engine of Growth
Andrew M. Warner
Working Paper 14/149
Islamic Finance in Sub-Saharan Africa: Status and Prospects
E. Gelbard; Mumtaz Hussain; Rodolfo Maino; Yibin Mu; Etienne B. Yehoue
Working Paper 14/150
How Solid Is Economic Growth in the East African Community?
Nikoloz Gigineishvili; Paolo Mauro; Ke Wang
Working Paper 14/151
Global Imbalances and External Adjustment after the Crisis
Philip R. Lane; Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti
Working Paper 14/152
The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policies on Bank Soundness
Frederic Lambert; Kenichi Ueda
Working Paper 14/153
Unemployment and Structural Unemployment in the Baltics
Christian Ebeke; Greetje Everaert
Working Paper 14/154
After the Boom—Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean
Bertrand Gruss
Working Paper 14/155
Macro-Prudential Policies to Mitigate Financial System Vulnerabilities
Stijn Claessens; Swati R. Ghosh; Roxana Mihet
Working Paper 14/156
Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets
Nasha Ananchotikul; Longmei Zhang
Working Paper 14/157
Capital Flows, Financial Intermediation and Macroprudential Policies
Matteo Ghilardi; Shanaka J. Peiris
Working Paper 14/158
Pacific Island Countries: In Search of a Trade Strategy
Hong Chen; Lanieta Rauqeuqe; Shiu raj Singh; Yiqun Wu; Yongzheng Yang
Working Paper 14/159
Introducing a Semi-Structural Macroeconomic Model for Rwanda
Luisa Charry; Pranav Gupta; Vimal Thakoor
Working Paper 14/160
Conventional and Insidious Macroeconomic Balance-Sheet Crises
Bas B. Bakker; Leslie Lipschitz
Working Paper 14/161
Measuring External Risks for Peru: Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy
Fei Han
Working Paper 14/162
Sovereign Debt Composition in Advanced Economies: A Historical Perspective
S. M. Ali Abbas; Laura Blattner; Mark De Broeck; Asmaa El-Ganainy; Malin Hu
Working Paper 14/163
Determinants of Banks’ Net Interest Margins in Honduras
Koffie Ben Nassar; Edder Martinez; Anabel Pineda
Working Paper 14/164
Budget Institutions in Low-Income Countries: Lessons from G-20
Sanjeev Gupta; Sami Yläoutinen
Working Paper 14/165
Demand Patterns in France, Germany, and Belgium: Can We Explain the Differences?
Igor Lebrun; Esther Pérez Ruiz
Working Paper 14/166
Financial Inclusion, Growth and Inequality: A Model Application to Colombia
Izabela Karpowicz
Working Paper 14/167
News and Monetary Shocks at a High Frequency: A Simple Approach
Troy Matheson; Emil Stavrev
Working Paper 14/168
Optimal Maturity Structure of Sovereign Debt in Situation of Near Default
Gabriel Desgranges; Céline Rochon
Working Paper 14/169
Reconsidering Bank Capital Regulation: A New Combination of Rules, Regulators, and Market Discipline
Connel Fullenkamp; Céline Rochon
Working Paper 14/170
Supervisory Roles in Loan Loss Provisioning in Countries Implementing IFRS
Ellen Gaston; Inwon Song
Working Paper 14/171
Bank Ownership and Credit Growth in Emerging Markets During and After the 2008-09 Financial Crisis—A Cross-Regional Comparison
Guodong Chen; Yi Wu
Working Paper 14/172
A Quality of Growth Index for Developing Countries: A Proposal
Montfort Mlachila; Rene Tapsoba; Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba
Working Paper 14/173
Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets—An Empirical Investigation
Ghada Fayad; Roberto Perrelli
Working Paper 14/174
How Much Carbon Pricing is in Countries’ Own Interests? The Critical Role of Co-Benefits
Ian W.H. Parry; Chandara Veung; Dirk Heine
Working Paper 14/175
Does the Clarity of Inflation Reports Affect Volatility in Financial Markets?
Ales Bulir; Martin Cihak; David-Jan Jansen
Working Paper 14/176
A Constrained Choice? Impact of Concessionality Requirements on Borrowing Behavior
Calixte Ahokpossi; Laurence Allain; Giovanna Bua
Working Paper 14/177
Soaring of the Gulf Falcons: Diversification in the GCC Oil Exporters in Seven Propositions
Reda Cherif; Fuad Hasanov
Working Paper 14/178
Food Inflation in India: The Role for Monetary Policy
Rahul Anand; Ding Ding; Volodymyr Tulin
Working Paper 14/179
How Much Is a Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments
Julio Escolano; Laura Jaramillo; Carlos Mulas-Granados; G. Terrier
Working Paper 14/180
The Great Cross-Border Bank Deleveraging: Supply Constraints and Intra-Group Frictions
Eugenio Cerutti; Stijn Claessens
Working Paper 14/181
Reforming the Corporate Governance of Italian Banks
Nadège Jassaud
Working Paper 14/182
Food Prices and the Multiplier Effect of Trade Policy
Paolo Giordani; Nadia Rocha; Michele Ruta
Working Paper 14/183
The Making of a Continental Financial System: Lessons for Europe from Early American History
Vitor Gaspar
Working Paper 14/184
Minimum Wages and Firm Employment: Evidence from China
Yi Huang; Prakash Loungani; Gewei Wang
Working Paper 14/185
Financial Crises and the Composition of Cross-Border Lending
Eugenio Cerutti; Galina Hale; Camelia Minoiu
Working Paper 14/186
A Model-Based Analysis of Spillovers: The Case of Poland and the Euro Area
Michal Andrle; Roberto Garcia-Saltos; Giang Ho
Working Paper 14/187
Determinants of Financial Market Spillovers: The Role of Portfolio Diversification, Trade, Home Bias, and Concentration
Yoko Shinagawa
Working Paper 14/188
Regulating Capital Flows at Both Ends: Does it Work?
Atish R. Ghosh; Mahvash Saeed Qureshi; Naotaka Sugawara
Working Paper 14/189
Unconventional Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates
Tao Wu
Working Paper 14/190
Unraveling the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Sri Lanka
Manuk Ghazanchyan
Working Paper 14/191
Are Non-Euro Area EU Countries Importing Low Inflation from the Euro Area?
Plamen Iossifov; Jiri Podpiera
Working Paper 14/192
Public Employment and Compensation Reform During Times of Fiscal Consolidation
Lorenzo Forni; Natalija Novta
Working Paper 14/193
Designing a Fiscal Framework for a Prospective Commodity Producer: Options for Lebanon
Mariusz Jarmuzek; Diego Mesa Puyo; Najla Nakhle
Working Paper 14/194
Financial Frictions and Sources of Business Cycle
Marzie Taheri Sanjani
Working Paper 14/195
Global Risks and Collective Action Failures: What Can the International Community Do?
Inci Otker-Robe
Working Paper 14/196
Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Can the Global Financial Cycle Be Tamed?
Erlend Nier; Tahsin Saadi Sedik; Tomas Mondino
Working Paper 14/197
The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Banking Globalization
Stijn Claessens; Neeltje van Horen
Working Paper 14/198
Non-Defaultable Debt and Sovereign Risk
Juan Carlos Hatchondo; Leonardo Martinez; Yasin Kursat Onder
Working Paper 14/199
Official Financial Flows, Capital Mobility, and Global Imbalances
Tamim Bayoumi; Joseph E. Gagnon; Christian Saborowski
Working Paper 14/200
Policy and Spillover Analysis in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach
Francis Vitek
Working Paper 14/201
Fiscal Devaluation in a Monetary Union
Philipp Engler; Giovanni Ganelli; Juha Tervala; Simon Voigts
Working Paper 14/202
Do IMF-Supported Programs Catalyze Donor Assistance to Low-Income Countries?
Yasemin Bal-Gunduz; Masyita Crystallin
Working Paper 14/203
Limiting Taxpayer “Puts”—An Example from Central Counterparties
Manmohan Singh
Working Paper 14/204
World Saving
Francesco Grigoli; Alexander Herman; Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
Working Paper 14/205
Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?
Evridiki Tsounta
IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website: http://www.imf.org/research.