Abstract
Articles in the June 2014 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin look at “The Rise and Fall of Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics” (Joong Shik Kang and Jay C. Shambaugh) and “The Two Sides of the Same Coin?: Rebalancing and Inclusive Growth in China” (Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Xin Wang). The Q&A looks at “Seven Questions on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries” (Andrew Berg, Luisa Charry, Rafael A. Portillo, and Jan Vleck). This issue of the Research Bulletin includes updated listings of IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. Readers can also find information on free access to a featured article from “IMF Economic Review.”
Working Paper 14/23
Aggregate Stability and Balanced-Budget Rules
Matteo Ghilardi; Raffaele Rossi
Working Paper 14/24
Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts
Laurence M. Ball; João Tovar Jalles; Prakash Loungani
Working Paper 14/25
What Is Shadow Banking?
Stijn Claessens; Lev Ratnovski
Working Paper 14/26
Regional Labor Market Adjustments in the United States and Europe
Mai Dao; Davide Furceri; Prakash Loungani
Working Paper 14/27
Foreign Investor Flows and Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies
Serkan Arslanalp; Tigran Poghosyan
Working Paper 14/28
The U.S. Manufacturing Recovery: Uptick or Renaissance?
Oya Celasun; Gabriel Di Bella; Tim Mahedy; Chris Papageorgiou
Working Paper 14/29
Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Yields and Foreign Holdings in the Post-Lehman Period—A Fortune or Misfortune?
Christian Ebeke; Yinqiu Lu
Working Paper 14/30
Monetary and Macroprudential Policies to Manage Capital Flows
Juan Pablo Medina Guzman; Jorge Roldos
Working Paper 14/31
Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel
Jonas Dovern; Ulrich Fritsche; Prakash Loungani; Natalia T. Tamirisa
Working Paper 14/32
Judicial System Reform in Italy—A Key to Growth
Gianluca Esposito; Sergi Lanau; Sebastiaan Pompe
Working Paper 14/33
Commodity Price Shocks and Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies in Commodity-Exporting Small Open Economies
Juan Pablo Medina Guzman; Claudio Soto
Working Paper 14/34
Debt and Growth: Is There a Magic Threshold?
Andrea Pescatori; Damiano Sandri; John Simon
Working Paper 14/35
Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Business Cycle Patterns
Oumar Diallo; Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba
Working Paper 14/36
Assessing Countries’ Financial Inclusion Standing—A New Composite Index
Goran Amidžic; Alexander Massara; André Mialou
Working Paper 14/37
Asia’s Stock Markets: Are There Crouching Tigers and Hidden Dragons?
Fabian Lipinsky; Li Lian Ong
Working Paper 14/38
Why Was Asia Resilient? Lessons from the Past and or the Future
Phakawa Jeasakul; Cheng Hoon Lim; Erik J. Lundbäck
Working Paper 14/39
Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt
Serkan Arslanalp; Takahiro Tsuda
Working Paper 14/40
Estimating Sri Lanka’s Potential Output
Ding Ding; John Nelmes; Roshan Perera; Volodymyr Tulin
Working Paper 14/41
Managing Income Tax Compliance Through Self-Assessment
Andrew Okello
Working Paper 14/42
Quality, Trade, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through
Natalie Chen; Luciana Juvenal
Working Paper 14/43
From Volatility to Stability in Expenditure: Stabilization Funds in Resource-Rich Countries
Naotaka Sugawara
Working Paper 14/44
Efficient Energy Investment and Fiscal Adjustment in Senegal
Salifou Issoufou; Edward F. Buffie; Mouhamadou Bamba Diop; Kalidou Thiaw
Working Paper 14/45
Deep Roots of Fiscal Behavior
Serhan Cevik; Katerina Teksoz
Working Paper 14/46
The Regulatory Responses to the Global Financial Crisis: Some Uncomfortable Questions
Stijn Claessens; Laura E. Kodres
Working Paper 14/47
Disentangling India’s Investment Slowdown
Rahul Anand; Volodymyr Tulin
Working Paper 14/48
Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF’s Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries
Andrew Berg; Enrico Berkes; Catherine A. Pattillo; Andrea Presbitero; Yorbol Yakhshilikov
Working Paper 14/49
Fiscal Limits, External Debt, and Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries
Huixin Bi; Wenyi Shen; Shu-Chun S. Yang
Working Paper 14/50
Debt Sustainability, Public Investment, and Natural Resources in Developing Countries: The DIGNAR Model
Giovanni Melina; Shu-Chun S. Yang; Luis-Felipe Zanna
Working Paper 14/51
Surging Investment and Declining Aid: Evaluating Debt Sustainability in Rwanda
Will Clark; Birgir Arnason
Working Paper 14/52
Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization: A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia
Romain A Duval; Kevin C. Cheng; Kum Hwa Oh; Richa Saraf; Dulani Seneviratne
Working Paper 14/53
Safe-Haven Korea?—Spillover Effects from UMPs
Jack Ree; Seoeun Choi
Working Paper 14/54
How can Korea Boost Potential Output to Ensure Continued Income Convergence?
Sonali Jain-Chandra; Longmei Zhang
Working Paper 14/55
Inflation Persistence in Brazil—A Cross-Country Comparison
Shaun K. Roache
Working Paper 14/56
Financial Crises in DSGE Models: Selected Applications of MAPMOD
Jaromir Benes; Michael Kumhof; Douglas Laxton
Working Paper 14/57
Financial Crises in DSGE Models: A Prototype Model
Jaromir Benes; Michael Kumhof; Douglas Laxton
Working Paper 14/58
Strengthening Post-Crisis Fiscal Credibility: Fiscal Councils on the Rise—A New Dataset
Xavier Debrun; Tidiane Kinda
Working Paper 14/59
Fiscal Policy in Latin America over the Cycle
Alexander Klemm
Working Paper 14/60
Global Financial Shocks and Foreign Asset Repatriation: Do Local Investors Play a Stabilizing Role?
Gustavo Adler; Marie-Louise Djigbenou; Sebastian Sosa
Working Paper 14/61
Exchange Rate Flexibility and Credit during Capital Inflow Reversals: Purgatory…Not Paradise
Nicolas E. Magud; Esteban Vesperoni
Working Paper 14/62
Cross-Country Experience in Reducing Net Foreign Liabilities: Lessons for New Zealand
Ding Ding; Werner Schule; Yan Sun
Working Paper 14/63
India: Defining and Explaining Inclusive Growth and Poverty Reduction
Rahul Anand; Volodymyr Tulin; Naresh Kumar
Working Paper 14/64
Income Inequality, Fiscal Decentralization, and Transfer Dependency
Caroline-Antonia Goerl; Mike Seiferling
Working Paper 14/65
Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies
Fabio Comelli
Working Paper 14/66
Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Interest Rates
Iryna Kaminska; Gabriele Zinna
Working Paper 14/67
Does Demand Volatility Lower Growth and Raise Inflation? Evidence from the Caribbean
Magda E. Kandil
Working Paper 14/68
India’s Recent Macroeconomic Performance: An Assessment and Way Forward
Muneesh Kapur; Rakesh Mohan
Working Paper 14/69
Global Liquidity and Drivers of Cross-Border Bank Flows
Eugenio Cerutti; Stijn Claessens; Lev Ratnovski
Working Paper 14/70
Monetary Policy Coordination and the Role of Central Banks
Rakesh Mohan; Muneesh Kapur
Working Paper 14/71
Bank Funding Costs for International Banks
Rita Babihuga; Marco Spaltro
Working Paper 14/72
Commercial Property Price Indexes: Problems of Sparse Data, Spatial Spillovers, and Weighting
Mick Silver; Brian Graf
Working Paper 14/73
Public Investment, Public Finance, and Growth: The Impact of Distortionary Taxation, Recurrent Costs, and Incomplete Appropriability
Christopher Adam; David Bevan
Working Paper 14/74
The Role of Country Concentration in the International Portfolio Investment Positions for the European Union Members
Iuliia Brushko; Yuko Hashimoto
Working Paper 14/75
China’s Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Liberalization: Lessons from International Experiences
Wei Liao; Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba
Working Paper 14/76
Transmission of Financial Stress in Europe: The Pivotal Role of Italy and Spain, But Not Greece
Brenda González-Hermosillo; Christian A. Johnson
IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website: http://www.imf.org/research.