Abstract
The Research Summaries in the March 2014 Research Bulletin focus on efficiency of health expenditure (Francesco Grigoli and Javier Kapsoli) and employment growth in European Union countries (Bas B. Bakker and Li Zeng). The Q&A article looks at “Seven Questions on Financial Interconnectedness” (Co-Pierre Georg and Camelia Minoiu). The Research Bulletin also includes a listing of IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. Information on the IMF Economic Review—the research journal of the IMF—is also provided.
Working Paper 13/235
Cross-Border Activity of Japanese Banks
Raphael W. Lam
Working Paper 13/236
Drivers of Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries
Manuk Ghazanchyan; Janet Gale Stotsky
Working Paper 13/237
The Investment-Financing-Growth Nexus: The Case of Liberia
Will Clark; Manuel Rosales
Working Paper 13/238
Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies
Emanuele Baldacci; Sanjeev Gupta; Carlos Mulas-Granados
Working Paper 13/239
Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System: An Application to Kenya
Michal Andrle; Andrew Berg; Enrico Berkes; Rafael A. Portillo; Jan Vlcek; R. Armando Morales
Working Paper 13/240
Sector-Level Productivity, Structural Change, and Rebalancing in China
Malhar Nabar; Kai Yan
Working Paper 13/241
Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit
Fabian Valencia
Working Paper 13/242
Baltic and Icelandic Experiences of Capital Flows and Capital Flow Measures
Audun Groenn; Maria Wallin Fredholm
Working Paper 13/243
Local Government Financing Platforms in China: A Fortune or Misfortune?
Yinqiu Lu; Tao Sun
Working Paper 13/244
Understanding Countries’ Tax Effort
Ricardo Fenochietto; Carola Pessino
Working Paper 13/245
Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession
Christopher J. Erceg; Andrew Levin
Working Paper 13/246
Credit Constraints, Political Instability, and Capital Accumulation
Risto Herrala; Rima Turk Ariss
Working Paper 13/247
The Redistributive Effects of Financial Deregulation
Anton Korinek; Jonathan Kreamer
Working Paper 13/248
This Time They Are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth
Markus Eberhardt; Andrea Presbitero
Working Paper 13/249
Inequality, Leverage, and Crises: The Case of Endogenous Default
Michael Kumhof; Romain Ranciere; Pablo Winant
Working Paper 13/250
Africa’s Rising Exposure to China: How Large Are Spillovers Through Trade?
Paulo Drummond; Estelle X. Liu
Working Paper 13/251
Monetary Transmission in Brazil: Has the Credit Channel Changed?
Mercedes Garcia-Escribano
Working Paper 13/252
A Financial Conditions Index for Poland
Giang Ho; Yinqiu Lu
Working Paper 13/253
Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach
Francis Vitek
Working Paper 13/254
Real Money Investors and Sovereign Bond Yields
Laura Jaramillo; Yuanyan Sophia Zhang
Working Paper 13/255
Securitization: Lessons Learned and the Road Ahead
Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto; Bradley Jones; Peter Lindner; Johannes Blankenheim
Working Paper 13/256
Adding China to the Global Projection Model
Patrick Blagrave; Peter Elliott; Roberto Garcia-Saltos; Douglas Hostland; Douglas Laxton; Fan Zhang
Working Paper 13/257
System Priors: Formulating Priors about DSGE Models’ Properties
Michal Andrle; Jaromir Benes
Working Paper 13/258
Procyclicality and the Search for Early Warning Indicators
Hyun Song Shin
Working Paper 13/259
Resilience in Latin America: Lessons from Macroeconomic Management and Financial Policies
Jose De Gregorio
Working Paper 13/260
External Imbalances and Financial Crises
Alan Taylor
Working Paper 13/261
Natural Gas, Public Investment, and Debt Sustainability in Mozambique
Giovanni Melina; Yi Xiong
Working Paper 13/262
The Benefits of International Policy Coordination Revisited
Jaromir Benes; Michael Kumhof; Douglas Laxton; Dirk Muir; Susanna Mursula
Working Paper 13/263
Financial Soundness Indicators and Banking Crises
Matias Costa Navajas; Aaron Thegeya
Working Paper 13/264
Global Spillovers into Domestic Bond Markets in Emerging Market Economies
Laura Jaramillo; Anke Weber
Working Paper 13/265
Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth
Marcos Chamon; Irineu E. Carvalho Filho
Working Paper 13/266
Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten
Carmen Reinhart; Kenneth Rogoff
Working Paper 13/267
Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?
Camelia Minoiu; Chanhyun Kang; V.S. Subrahmanian; Anamaria Berea
Working Paper 13/268
Development of the Renminbi Market in Hong Kong SAR: Assessing Onshore-Offshore Market Integration
R. Sean Craig; Changchun Hua; Philip Ng; Raymond Yuen
Working Paper 13/269
Macroeconomic Effects of Sovereign Restructuring in a Monetary Union: A Model-Based Approach
Lorenzo Forni; Massimiliano Pisani
Working Paper 13/270
Sovereign Debt Markets in Turbulent Times: Creditor Discrimination and Crowding-Out
Fernando Broner; Aitor Erce; Alberto Martin; Jaume Ventura
Working Paper 13/271
Macrofinancial Linkages in Egypt: A Panel Analysis of Economic Shocks and Loan Portfolio Quality
Inessa Love; Rima Turk Ariss
Working Paper 13/272
The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology
Steven Phillips; Luis Catão; Luca Antonio Ricci; Rudolfs Bems; Mitali Das; Julian di Giovanni; D. Filiz Unsal; Marola Castillo; Jungjin Lee; Jair Rodriguez; Mauricio Vargas
Working Paper 13/273
IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries: Economic Impact over the Short and Longer Term
Christian Mumssen; Yasemin Bal-Gunduz; Christian Ebeke; Linda Kaltani
Working Paper 14/1
Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Emerging Markets: Can Fiscal Policy Help?
Marialuz Moreno Badia; Alex Segura-Ubiergo
Working Paper 14/2
Potential Growth in Emerging Asia
Rahul Anand; Kevin C. Cheng; Sidra Rehman; Longmei Zhang
Working Paper 14/3
Economic Growth and Government Spending in Saudi Arabia: An Empirical Investigation
Saad A. Alshahrani; Ali J. Alsadiq
Working Paper 14/5
Resource Blessing, Revenue Curse? Domestic Revenue Effort in Resource-Rich Countries
Ernesto Crivelli; Sanjeev Gupta
Working Paper 14/6
Reforming Capital Taxation in Italy
Luc Eyraud
Working Paper 14/7
Reforming Tax Expenditures in Italy: What, Why, and How?
Justin Tyson
Working Paper 14/8
Effectiveness of Capital Outflow Restrictions
Christian Saborowski; Sarah Sanya; Hans Weisfeld; Juan Yepez
Working Paper 14/9
Global Liquidity Through the Lens of Monetary Aggregates
Kyuil Chung; Jong-Eun Lee; Elena Loukoianova; Hail Park; Hyun Song Shin
Working Paper 14/10
Mapping the Shadow Banking System Through a Global Flow of Funds Analysis
Luca Errico; Artak Harutyunyan; Elena Loukoianova; Richard Walton; Yevgeniya Korniyenko; Goran Amidžic; Hanan AbuShanab; Hyun Song Shin
Working Paper 14/11
Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility: A Reassessment
Atish R. Ghosh; Jonathan David Ostry; Mahvash Saeed Qureshi
Working Paper 14/12
Thin Capitalization Rules and Multinational Firm Capital Structure
Jennifer Blouin; Harry Huizinga; Luc Laeven; Gaetan Nicodeme
Working Paper 14/13
Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries
Giulia Bettin; Andrea Presbitero; Nicola Spatafora
Working Paper 14/14
Financial Soundness Indicators and the Characteristics of Financial Cycles
Natasha Xingyuan Che; Yoko Shinagawa
Working Paper 14/15
The Quest for Non-Resource-Based FDI: Do Taxes Matter?
Tidiane Kinda
Working Paper 14/16
Boosting Job Growth in the Western Balkans
Dmitriy Kovtun; Alexis Mayer Cirkel; Zuzana Murgasova;
Dustin Smith; Suchanan Tambunlertchai
Working Paper 14/17
Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe: The Role of Global Risk Aversion, Economic Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Spillovers
Frigyes F. Heinz; Yan Sun
Working Paper 14/18
Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime
Andrew Berg; Rafael A. Portillo; Luis-Felipe Zanna
Working Paper 14/19
A Hybrid Approach to Estimating the Efficiency of Public Spending on Education in Emerging and Developing Economies
Francesco Grigoli
Working Paper 14/20
Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts: Who Pays the Premium?
E. Jenkner; Zhongjin Lu
Working Paper 14/21
Bulgaria’s EU Funds Absorption: Maximizing the Potential!
Iana Paliova; Tonny Lybek
Working Paper 14/22
Leaning Against the Wind: Macroprudential Policy in Asia
Longmei Zhang; Edda Zoli
IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website: www.imf.org/research.