The Research Summaries in the March 2014 Research Bulletin focus on efficiency of health expenditure (Francesco Grigoli and Javier Kapsoli) and employment growth in European Union countries (Bas B. Bakker and Li Zeng). The Q&A article looks at “Seven Questions on Financial Interconnectedness” (Co-Pierre Georg and Camelia Minoiu). The Research Bulletin also includes a listing of IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. Information on the IMF Economic Review—the research journal of the IMF—is also provided.

Abstract

The Research Summaries in the March 2014 Research Bulletin focus on efficiency of health expenditure (Francesco Grigoli and Javier Kapsoli) and employment growth in European Union countries (Bas B. Bakker and Li Zeng). The Q&A article looks at “Seven Questions on Financial Interconnectedness” (Co-Pierre Georg and Camelia Minoiu). The Research Bulletin also includes a listing of IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. Information on the IMF Economic Review—the research journal of the IMF—is also provided.

Working Paper 13/235

Cross-Border Activity of Japanese Banks

Raphael W. Lam

Working Paper 13/236

Drivers of Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries

Manuk Ghazanchyan; Janet Gale Stotsky

Working Paper 13/237

The Investment-Financing-Growth Nexus: The Case of Liberia

Will Clark; Manuel Rosales

Working Paper 13/238

Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies

Emanuele Baldacci; Sanjeev Gupta; Carlos Mulas-Granados

Working Paper 13/239

Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System: An Application to Kenya

Michal Andrle; Andrew Berg; Enrico Berkes; Rafael A. Portillo; Jan Vlcek; R. Armando Morales

Working Paper 13/240

Sector-Level Productivity, Structural Change, and Rebalancing in China

Malhar Nabar; Kai Yan

Working Paper 13/241

Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit

Fabian Valencia

Working Paper 13/242

Baltic and Icelandic Experiences of Capital Flows and Capital Flow Measures

Audun Groenn; Maria Wallin Fredholm

Working Paper 13/243

Local Government Financing Platforms in China: A Fortune or Misfortune?

Yinqiu Lu; Tao Sun

Working Paper 13/244

Understanding Countries’ Tax Effort

Ricardo Fenochietto; Carola Pessino

Working Paper 13/245

Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession

Christopher J. Erceg; Andrew Levin

Working Paper 13/246

Credit Constraints, Political Instability, and Capital Accumulation

Risto Herrala; Rima Turk Ariss

Working Paper 13/247

The Redistributive Effects of Financial Deregulation

Anton Korinek; Jonathan Kreamer

Working Paper 13/248

This Time They Are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth

Markus Eberhardt; Andrea Presbitero

Working Paper 13/249

Inequality, Leverage, and Crises: The Case of Endogenous Default

Michael Kumhof; Romain Ranciere; Pablo Winant

Working Paper 13/250

Africa’s Rising Exposure to China: How Large Are Spillovers Through Trade?

Paulo Drummond; Estelle X. Liu

Working Paper 13/251

Monetary Transmission in Brazil: Has the Credit Channel Changed?

Mercedes Garcia-Escribano

Working Paper 13/252

A Financial Conditions Index for Poland

Giang Ho; Yinqiu Lu

Working Paper 13/253

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

Francis Vitek

Working Paper 13/254

Real Money Investors and Sovereign Bond Yields

Laura Jaramillo; Yuanyan Sophia Zhang

Working Paper 13/255

Securitization: Lessons Learned and the Road Ahead

Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto; Bradley Jones; Peter Lindner; Johannes Blankenheim

Working Paper 13/256

Adding China to the Global Projection Model

Patrick Blagrave; Peter Elliott; Roberto Garcia-Saltos; Douglas Hostland; Douglas Laxton; Fan Zhang

Working Paper 13/257

System Priors: Formulating Priors about DSGE Models’ Properties

Michal Andrle; Jaromir Benes

Working Paper 13/258

Procyclicality and the Search for Early Warning Indicators

Hyun Song Shin

Working Paper 13/259

Resilience in Latin America: Lessons from Macroeconomic Management and Financial Policies

Jose De Gregorio

Working Paper 13/260

External Imbalances and Financial Crises

Alan Taylor

Working Paper 13/261

Natural Gas, Public Investment, and Debt Sustainability in Mozambique

Giovanni Melina; Yi Xiong

Working Paper 13/262

The Benefits of International Policy Coordination Revisited

Jaromir Benes; Michael Kumhof; Douglas Laxton; Dirk Muir; Susanna Mursula

Working Paper 13/263

Financial Soundness Indicators and Banking Crises

Matias Costa Navajas; Aaron Thegeya

Working Paper 13/264

Global Spillovers into Domestic Bond Markets in Emerging Market Economies

Laura Jaramillo; Anke Weber

Working Paper 13/265

Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth

Marcos Chamon; Irineu E. Carvalho Filho

Working Paper 13/266

Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten

Carmen Reinhart; Kenneth Rogoff

Working Paper 13/267

Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?

Camelia Minoiu; Chanhyun Kang; V.S. Subrahmanian; Anamaria Berea

Working Paper 13/268

Development of the Renminbi Market in Hong Kong SAR: Assessing Onshore-Offshore Market Integration

R. Sean Craig; Changchun Hua; Philip Ng; Raymond Yuen

Working Paper 13/269

Macroeconomic Effects of Sovereign Restructuring in a Monetary Union: A Model-Based Approach

Lorenzo Forni; Massimiliano Pisani

Working Paper 13/270

Sovereign Debt Markets in Turbulent Times: Creditor Discrimination and Crowding-Out

Fernando Broner; Aitor Erce; Alberto Martin; Jaume Ventura

Working Paper 13/271

Macrofinancial Linkages in Egypt: A Panel Analysis of Economic Shocks and Loan Portfolio Quality

Inessa Love; Rima Turk Ariss

Working Paper 13/272

The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology

Steven Phillips; Luis Catão; Luca Antonio Ricci; Rudolfs Bems; Mitali Das; Julian di Giovanni; D. Filiz Unsal; Marola Castillo; Jungjin Lee; Jair Rodriguez; Mauricio Vargas

Working Paper 13/273

IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries: Economic Impact over the Short and Longer Term

Christian Mumssen; Yasemin Bal-Gunduz; Christian Ebeke; Linda Kaltani

Working Paper 14/1

Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Emerging Markets: Can Fiscal Policy Help?

Marialuz Moreno Badia; Alex Segura-Ubiergo

Working Paper 14/2

Potential Growth in Emerging Asia

Rahul Anand; Kevin C. Cheng; Sidra Rehman; Longmei Zhang

Working Paper 14/3

Economic Growth and Government Spending in Saudi Arabia: An Empirical Investigation

Saad A. Alshahrani; Ali J. Alsadiq

Working Paper 14/5

Resource Blessing, Revenue Curse? Domestic Revenue Effort in Resource-Rich Countries

Ernesto Crivelli; Sanjeev Gupta

Working Paper 14/6

Reforming Capital Taxation in Italy

Luc Eyraud

Working Paper 14/7

Reforming Tax Expenditures in Italy: What, Why, and How?

Justin Tyson

Working Paper 14/8

Effectiveness of Capital Outflow Restrictions

Christian Saborowski; Sarah Sanya; Hans Weisfeld; Juan Yepez

Working Paper 14/9

Global Liquidity Through the Lens of Monetary Aggregates

Kyuil Chung; Jong-Eun Lee; Elena Loukoianova; Hail Park; Hyun Song Shin

Working Paper 14/10

Mapping the Shadow Banking System Through a Global Flow of Funds Analysis

Luca Errico; Artak Harutyunyan; Elena Loukoianova; Richard Walton; Yevgeniya Korniyenko; Goran Amidžic; Hanan AbuShanab; Hyun Song Shin

Working Paper 14/11

Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility: A Reassessment

Atish R. Ghosh; Jonathan David Ostry; Mahvash Saeed Qureshi

Working Paper 14/12

Thin Capitalization Rules and Multinational Firm Capital Structure

Jennifer Blouin; Harry Huizinga; Luc Laeven; Gaetan Nicodeme

Working Paper 14/13

Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries

Giulia Bettin; Andrea Presbitero; Nicola Spatafora

Working Paper 14/14

Financial Soundness Indicators and the Characteristics of Financial Cycles

Natasha Xingyuan Che; Yoko Shinagawa

Working Paper 14/15

The Quest for Non-Resource-Based FDI: Do Taxes Matter?

Tidiane Kinda

Working Paper 14/16

Boosting Job Growth in the Western Balkans

Dmitriy Kovtun; Alexis Mayer Cirkel; Zuzana Murgasova;

Dustin Smith; Suchanan Tambunlertchai

Working Paper 14/17

Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe: The Role of Global Risk Aversion, Economic Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Spillovers

Frigyes F. Heinz; Yan Sun

Working Paper 14/18

Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime

Andrew Berg; Rafael A. Portillo; Luis-Felipe Zanna

Working Paper 14/19

A Hybrid Approach to Estimating the Efficiency of Public Spending on Education in Emerging and Developing Economies

Francesco Grigoli

Working Paper 14/20

Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts: Who Pays the Premium?

E. Jenkner; Zhongjin Lu

Working Paper 14/21

Bulgaria’s EU Funds Absorption: Maximizing the Potential!

Iana Paliova; Tonny Lybek

Working Paper 14/22

Leaning Against the Wind: Macroprudential Policy in Asia

Longmei Zhang; Edda Zoli

IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website: www.imf.org/research.