The Research Summaries in the September 2013 IMF Research Bulletin focus on “External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America” (Gustavo Adler and Sebastian Sosa) and “Monetary Policy Cyclicality in Emerging Markets” (Donal McGettigan, Kenji Moriyama, and Chad Steinberg). In the Q&A, Itai Aigur and Sunil Sharma discuss “Seven Questions on Macroprudential Policy Frameworks.” The Research Bulletin also includes an updated listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore, as well as information on a forthcoming conference. The IMF Economic Review’s new Impact Factor is also highlighted.

Abstract

The Research Summaries in the September 2013 IMF Research Bulletin focus on “External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America” (Gustavo Adler and Sebastian Sosa) and “Monetary Policy Cyclicality in Emerging Markets” (Donal McGettigan, Kenji Moriyama, and Chad Steinberg). In the Q&A, Itai Aigur and Sunil Sharma discuss “Seven Questions on Macroprudential Policy Frameworks.” The Research Bulletin also includes an updated listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore, as well as information on a forthcoming conference. The IMF Economic Review’s new Impact Factor is also highlighted.

Working Paper 13/98

Understanding DSGE Filters in Forecasting and Policy Analysis

Andrle, Michal

Working Paper 13/99

Survey of Reserve Managers: Lessons from the Crisis

Morahan, Aideen; Mulder, Christian

Working Paper 13/100

Measuring Competitiveness: Trade in Goods or Tasks?

Bayoumi, Tamim; Saito, Mika; Turunen, Jarkko

Working Paper 13/101

The Impact of Foreign Bank Deleveraging on Korea

Jain-Chandra, Sonali; Kim, Min Jung; Park, Sung Ho; Shin, Jerome

Working Paper 13/102

Balance Sheet Strength and Bank Lending During the Global Financial Crisis

Kapan, Tümer; Minoiu, Camelia

Working Paper 13/103

Four Decades of Terms-of-Trade Booms: Saving-Investment Patterns and a New Metric of Income Windfall

Adler, Gustavo; Magud, Nicolas

Working Paper 13/104

The Pacific Speed of Growth: How Fast Can It Be and What Determines It?

Yang, Yongzheng; Chen, Hong; Singh, Shiu Raj; Singh, Baljeet

Working Paper 13/105

What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework and Decomposition into Observables

Andrle, Michal

Working Paper 13/106

Credit Growth in Latin America: Financial Development or Credit Boom?

Hansen, Niels-Jakob Harbo; Sulla, Olga

Working Paper 13/107

Capital Account Policies in Chile Macrofinancial Considerations Along the Path to Liberalization

Carriere-Swallow, Yan; Garcia-Silva, Pablo

Working Paper 13/108

Export Quality in Developing Countries

Henn, Christian; Papageorgiou, Chris; Spatafora, Nicola

Working Paper 13/109

Is the Growth Momentum in Latin America Sustainable?

Sosa, Sebastian; Tsounta, Evridiki; Kim, Hye

Working Paper 13/110

The Welfare Implications of Services Liberalization in a Developing Country: Evidence from Tunisia

Jouini, Nizar; Rebei, Nooman

Working Paper 13/111

The Anatomy of the VAT

Keen, Michael

Working Paper 13/112

Energy Subsidies and Energy Consumption— A Cross-Country Analysis

Charap, Joshua; Ribeiro da Silva, Arthur; Rodriguez, Pedro

Working Paper 13/113

External Liabilities and Crises

Catão, Luis; Milesi-Ferretti, Gian-Maria

Working Paper 13/114

World Food Prices, the Terms of Trade-Real Exchange Rate Nexus, and Monetary Policy

Catão, Luis; Chang, Roberto

Working Paper 13/115

“Near-Coincident” Indicators of Systemic Stress

Arsov, Ivailo; Canetti, Elie; Kodres, Laura; Mitra, Srobona

Working Paper 13/116

Inclusive Growth and the Incidence of Fiscal Policy in Mauritius—Much Progress, But More Could Be Done

David, Antonio; Petri, Martin

Working Paper 13/117

Fiscal Multipliers in the ECCU

Gonzalez-Garcia, Jesus; Lemus, Antonio; Mrkaic, Mico

Working Paper 13/118

Heterogeneous Bank Lending Responses to Monetary Policy: New Evidence from a Real-Time Identification

Bluedorn, John; Bowdler, Christopher; Koch, Christoffer

Working Paper 13/119

Emerging Economy Business Cycles: Financial Integration and Terms of Trade Shocks

Rudrani Bhattacharya; Ila Patnaik; Madhavi Pundit

Working Paper 13/120

Credit Constraints, Productivity Shocks and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies

Bhattacharya, Rudrani; Patnaik, Ila

Working Paper 13/121

Financial Structures and Economic Outcomes: An Empirical Analysis

Gole, Tom; Sun, Tao

Working Paper 13/122

Foreign Investors Under Stress: Evidence from India

Patnaik, Ila; Shah, Ajay; Singh, Nirvikar

Working Paper 13/123

Are the Asia and Pacific Small States Different from Other Small States?

Tumbarello, Patrizia; Cabezon, Ezequiel; Wu, Yiqun

Working Paper 13/124

The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle

Matheson, Troy; Stavrev, Emil

Working Paper 13/125

That Squeezing Feeling: The Interest Burden and Public Debt Stabilization

Debrun, Xavier; Kinda, Tidiane

Working Paper 13/126

Competition Policy for Modern Banks

Ratnovski, Lev

Working Paper 13/127

Options and Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in India

Tapsoba, Sampawende

Working Paper 13/128

The Fiscal and Welfare Impacts of Reforming Fuel Subsidies in India

Anand, Rahul; Coady, David; Mohommad, Adil; Thakoor, Vimal; Walsh, James

Working Paper 13/129

Taxing Immovable Property Revenue Potential and Implementation Challenges

Norregaard, John

Working Paper 13/130

The Finance and Growth Nexus Re-Examined: Do All Countries Benefit Equally?

Barajas, Adolfo; Chami, Ralph; Yousefi, Reza

Working Paper 13/131

Fixing the Fixings: What Road to a More Representative Money Market Benchmark?

Brousseau, V.; Chailloux, Alexandre; Durré, A.

Working Paper 13/132

The Growth Comeback in Developing Economies: A New Hope or Back to the Future?

Bluedorn, John; Duttagupta, Rupa; Guajardo, Jaime; Mwase, Nkunde

Working Paper 13/133

Afghanistan: Balancing Social and Security Spending in the Context of Shrinking Resource Envelope

Aslam, Aqib; Berkes, Enrico; Fukac, Martin; Menkulasi, Jeta; Schimmelpfennig, Axel

Working Paper 13/134

Comparing Parametric and Non-Parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Comelli, Fabio

Working Paper 13/135

Inclusive Growth: Measurement and Determinants

Anand, Rahul; Mishra, Saurabh; Peiris, Shanaka

Working Paper 13/136

The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback

Estevão, Marcello; Samaké, Issouf

Working Paper 13/137

Measuring the Informal Economy in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Abdih, Yasser; Medina, Leandro

Working Paper 13/138

The Macroeconomic Effects of Natural Resource Extraction: Applications to Papua New Guinea

Basu, Suman; Gottschalk, Jan; Schule, Werner; Vellodi, Nikhil; Yang, Shu-Chun

Working Paper 13/139

Inclusive Growth: An Application of the Social Opportunity Function to Selected African Countries

Adedeji, Olumuyiwa; Du, Huancheng; Opoku-Afari, Maxwell

Working Paper 13/140

The Comovement in Commodity Prices: Sources and Implications

Alquist, Ron; Coibion, Olivier

Working Paper 13/141

Fiscal Policy and Lending Relationships

Melina, Giovanni; Villa, Stefania

Working Paper 13/142

Risk Exposures and Financial Spillovers in Tranquil and Crisis Times: Bank-Level Evidence

Poirson, Hélène; Schmittmann, Jochen M.

Working Paper 13/143

Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy’s Risk-Taking Channel: Evidence from the United States

Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni; Laeven, Luc; Suarez, Gustavo

Working Paper 13/144

Fiscal Sustainability, Public Investment, and Growth in Natural Resource-Rich, Low-Income Countries: The Case of Cameroon

Samaké, Issouf; Muthoora, Priscilla; Versailles, Bruno

Working Paper 13/145

Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama, and Dominican Republic

Johnson, Christian

Working Paper 13/146

Does Public-Sector Employment Fully Crowd Out Private-Sector Employment?

Behar, Alberto; Mok, Junghwan

Working Paper 13/147

Investing Volatile Oil Revenues in Capital-Scarce Economies: An Application to Angola

Richmond, Christine; Yackovlev, Irene; Yang, Shu-Chun

Working Paper 13/148

Bank Funding in Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe Post Lehman: A “New Normal”?

Impavido, Gregorio; Rudolph, Heinz; Ruggerone, Luigi

Working Paper 13/149

The Growth and Stabilization Properties of Fiscal Policy in Malaysia

Rafiq, Sohrab

Working Paper 13/150

How Do Banking Crises Affect Bilateral Exports?

Kiendrebeogo, Youssouf

Working Paper 13/151

The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation

Ball, Laurence; Furceri, Davide; Leigh, Daniel; Loungani, Prakash

Working Paper 13/152

The Elusive Quest for Inclusive Growth: Growth, Poverty, and Inequality in Asia

Ravi Balakrishnan; Chad Steinberg; Murtaza H. Syed

Working Paper 13/153

Fiscal Policy over the Election Cycle in Low-Income Countries

Christian Ebeke; Dilan Ölçer

Working Paper 13/154

Macrofinancial Implications of Corporate (De)Leveraging in the Euro Area Periphery

Manuela Goretti; Marcos Souto

Working Paper 13/155

Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy Transmission in Vietnam and Emerging Asia

Rina Bhattacharya

Working Paper 13/156

Country Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks

Luís Brandão Marques; Gaston Gelos; Natalia Melgar

Working Paper 13/157

Toward a Sustainable and Inclusive Consolidation in Lithuania: Past Experience and What Is Needed Going Forward

Nan Geng

Working Paper 13/158

Monetary Policy and Balance Sheets

Deniz Igan; Alain N. Kabundi; Francisco Nadal-De Simone; Natalia T. Tamirisa

Working Paper 13/159

Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel

Salvatore Dell’Erba; Sergio Sola

Working Paper 13/160

Basel Capital Requirements and Credit Crunch in the MENA Region

Sami Ben Naceur; Magda E. Kandil

Working Paper 13/161

Financial Depth in the WAEMU: Benchmarking Against Frontier SSA Countries

Calixte Ahokpossi; Kareem Ismail; Sudipto Karmakar; Mesmin Koulet-Vickot

Working Paper 13/162

Can a Government Enhance Long-Run Growth by Changing the Composition of Public Expenditure?

Santiago Acosta Ormaechea; Atsuyoshi Morozumi

Working Paper 13/163

Tax Coordination, Tax Competition, and Revenue Mobilization in the West African Economic and Monetary Union

Mario Mansour; Gregoire Rota Graziosi

Working Paper 13/164

Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets: Local Fundamentals and Global Factors vs. Ever-Changing Misalignments

Balazs Csonto; Iryna V. Ivaschenko

Working Paper 13/165

Institutional Arrangements for Macroprudential Policy in Asia

Cheng Hoon Lim; Rishi S Ramchand; Hong Wang; Xiaoyong Wu

Working Paper 13/166

The Macroprudential Framework: Policy Responsiveness and Institutional Arrangements

Cheng Hoon Lim; Ivo Krznar; Fabian Lipinsky; Akira Otani; Xiaoyong Wu

Working Paper 13/167

Evaluating the Net Benefits of Macroprudential Policy: A Cookbook

Nicolas Arregui; Jaromir Benes; Ivo Krznar; Srobona Mitra; Andre Santos

Working Paper 13/168

Systemic Risk Monitoring (“SysMo”) Toolkit—A User Guide

Nicolas R. Blancher; Srobona Mitra; Hanan Morsy; Akira Otani; Tiago Severo; Laura Valderrama

Working Paper 13/169

The Evolution of Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics: Many Paths to the Same Endpoint

Joong Shik Kang; Jay C. Shambaugh

Working Paper 13/170

Pressure or Prudence? Tales of Market Pressure and Fiscal Adjustment

Salvatore Dell’Erba; Todd D. Mattina; Agustin Roitman

Working Paper 13/171

What Explains Movements in the Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate?

Yi Wu

Working Paper 13/172

Bank Resolution Costs, Depositor Preference, and Asset Encumbrance

Daniel C. Hardy

Working Paper 13/173

Tax Administration Reform in the Francophone Countries of Sub-Saharan Africa

Patrick Fossat; Michel Bua

Working Paper 13/174

Sudden Stops, Time Inconsistency, and the Duration of Sovereign Debt

Juan Carlos Hatchondo; Leonardo Martinez

Working Paper 13/175

Financial Interconnectedness and Financial Sector Reforms in the Caribbean

Sumiko Ogawa; Joonkyu Park; Diva Singh; Nita Thacker

Working Paper 13/176

Benchmarking Structural Transformation Across the World

Era Dabla-Norris; Alun H. Thomas; Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu; Yingyuan Chen

Working Paper 13/177

HEAT! A Bank Health Assessment Tool

Li Lian Ong; Phakawa Jeasakul; Sarah Kwoh

Working Paper 13/178

Credibility and Crisis Stress Testing

Li Lian Ong; Ceyla Pazarbasioglu

IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website: http://www.imf.org/research.