Abstract
The Research Summaries in the September 2013 IMF Research Bulletin focus on “External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America” (Gustavo Adler and Sebastian Sosa) and “Monetary Policy Cyclicality in Emerging Markets” (Donal McGettigan, Kenji Moriyama, and Chad Steinberg). In the Q&A, Itai Aigur and Sunil Sharma discuss “Seven Questions on Macroprudential Policy Frameworks.” The Research Bulletin also includes an updated listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore, as well as information on a forthcoming conference. The IMF Economic Review’s new Impact Factor is also highlighted.
Working Paper 13/98
Understanding DSGE Filters in Forecasting and Policy Analysis
Andrle, Michal
Working Paper 13/99
Survey of Reserve Managers: Lessons from the Crisis
Morahan, Aideen; Mulder, Christian
Working Paper 13/100
Measuring Competitiveness: Trade in Goods or Tasks?
Bayoumi, Tamim; Saito, Mika; Turunen, Jarkko
Working Paper 13/101
The Impact of Foreign Bank Deleveraging on Korea
Jain-Chandra, Sonali; Kim, Min Jung; Park, Sung Ho; Shin, Jerome
Working Paper 13/102
Balance Sheet Strength and Bank Lending During the Global Financial Crisis
Kapan, Tümer; Minoiu, Camelia
Working Paper 13/103
Four Decades of Terms-of-Trade Booms: Saving-Investment Patterns and a New Metric of Income Windfall
Adler, Gustavo; Magud, Nicolas
Working Paper 13/104
The Pacific Speed of Growth: How Fast Can It Be and What Determines It?
Yang, Yongzheng; Chen, Hong; Singh, Shiu Raj; Singh, Baljeet
Working Paper 13/105
What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework and Decomposition into Observables
Andrle, Michal
Working Paper 13/106
Credit Growth in Latin America: Financial Development or Credit Boom?
Hansen, Niels-Jakob Harbo; Sulla, Olga
Working Paper 13/107
Capital Account Policies in Chile Macrofinancial Considerations Along the Path to Liberalization
Carriere-Swallow, Yan; Garcia-Silva, Pablo
Working Paper 13/108
Export Quality in Developing Countries
Henn, Christian; Papageorgiou, Chris; Spatafora, Nicola
Working Paper 13/109
Is the Growth Momentum in Latin America Sustainable?
Sosa, Sebastian; Tsounta, Evridiki; Kim, Hye
Working Paper 13/110
The Welfare Implications of Services Liberalization in a Developing Country: Evidence from Tunisia
Jouini, Nizar; Rebei, Nooman
Working Paper 13/111
The Anatomy of the VAT
Keen, Michael
Working Paper 13/112
Energy Subsidies and Energy Consumption— A Cross-Country Analysis
Charap, Joshua; Ribeiro da Silva, Arthur; Rodriguez, Pedro
Working Paper 13/113
External Liabilities and Crises
Catão, Luis; Milesi-Ferretti, Gian-Maria
Working Paper 13/114
World Food Prices, the Terms of Trade-Real Exchange Rate Nexus, and Monetary Policy
Catão, Luis; Chang, Roberto
Working Paper 13/115
“Near-Coincident” Indicators of Systemic Stress
Arsov, Ivailo; Canetti, Elie; Kodres, Laura; Mitra, Srobona
Working Paper 13/116
Inclusive Growth and the Incidence of Fiscal Policy in Mauritius—Much Progress, But More Could Be Done
David, Antonio; Petri, Martin
Working Paper 13/117
Fiscal Multipliers in the ECCU
Gonzalez-Garcia, Jesus; Lemus, Antonio; Mrkaic, Mico
Working Paper 13/118
Heterogeneous Bank Lending Responses to Monetary Policy: New Evidence from a Real-Time Identification
Bluedorn, John; Bowdler, Christopher; Koch, Christoffer
Working Paper 13/119
Emerging Economy Business Cycles: Financial Integration and Terms of Trade Shocks
Rudrani Bhattacharya; Ila Patnaik; Madhavi Pundit
Working Paper 13/120
Credit Constraints, Productivity Shocks and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies
Bhattacharya, Rudrani; Patnaik, Ila
Working Paper 13/121
Financial Structures and Economic Outcomes: An Empirical Analysis
Gole, Tom; Sun, Tao
Working Paper 13/122
Foreign Investors Under Stress: Evidence from India
Patnaik, Ila; Shah, Ajay; Singh, Nirvikar
Working Paper 13/123
Are the Asia and Pacific Small States Different from Other Small States?
Tumbarello, Patrizia; Cabezon, Ezequiel; Wu, Yiqun
Working Paper 13/124
The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle
Matheson, Troy; Stavrev, Emil
Working Paper 13/125
That Squeezing Feeling: The Interest Burden and Public Debt Stabilization
Debrun, Xavier; Kinda, Tidiane
Working Paper 13/126
Competition Policy for Modern Banks
Ratnovski, Lev
Working Paper 13/127
Options and Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in India
Tapsoba, Sampawende
Working Paper 13/128
The Fiscal and Welfare Impacts of Reforming Fuel Subsidies in India
Anand, Rahul; Coady, David; Mohommad, Adil; Thakoor, Vimal; Walsh, James
Working Paper 13/129
Taxing Immovable Property Revenue Potential and Implementation Challenges
Norregaard, John
Working Paper 13/130
The Finance and Growth Nexus Re-Examined: Do All Countries Benefit Equally?
Barajas, Adolfo; Chami, Ralph; Yousefi, Reza
Working Paper 13/131
Fixing the Fixings: What Road to a More Representative Money Market Benchmark?
Brousseau, V.; Chailloux, Alexandre; Durré, A.
Working Paper 13/132
The Growth Comeback in Developing Economies: A New Hope or Back to the Future?
Bluedorn, John; Duttagupta, Rupa; Guajardo, Jaime; Mwase, Nkunde
Working Paper 13/133
Afghanistan: Balancing Social and Security Spending in the Context of Shrinking Resource Envelope
Aslam, Aqib; Berkes, Enrico; Fukac, Martin; Menkulasi, Jeta; Schimmelpfennig, Axel
Working Paper 13/134
Comparing Parametric and Non-Parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies
Comelli, Fabio
Working Paper 13/135
Inclusive Growth: Measurement and Determinants
Anand, Rahul; Mishra, Saurabh; Peiris, Shanaka
Working Paper 13/136
The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback
Estevão, Marcello; Samaké, Issouf
Working Paper 13/137
Measuring the Informal Economy in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Abdih, Yasser; Medina, Leandro
Working Paper 13/138
The Macroeconomic Effects of Natural Resource Extraction: Applications to Papua New Guinea
Basu, Suman; Gottschalk, Jan; Schule, Werner; Vellodi, Nikhil; Yang, Shu-Chun
Working Paper 13/139
Inclusive Growth: An Application of the Social Opportunity Function to Selected African Countries
Adedeji, Olumuyiwa; Du, Huancheng; Opoku-Afari, Maxwell
Working Paper 13/140
The Comovement in Commodity Prices: Sources and Implications
Alquist, Ron; Coibion, Olivier
Working Paper 13/141
Fiscal Policy and Lending Relationships
Melina, Giovanni; Villa, Stefania
Working Paper 13/142
Risk Exposures and Financial Spillovers in Tranquil and Crisis Times: Bank-Level Evidence
Poirson, Hélène; Schmittmann, Jochen M.
Working Paper 13/143
Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy’s Risk-Taking Channel: Evidence from the United States
Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni; Laeven, Luc; Suarez, Gustavo
Working Paper 13/144
Fiscal Sustainability, Public Investment, and Growth in Natural Resource-Rich, Low-Income Countries: The Case of Cameroon
Samaké, Issouf; Muthoora, Priscilla; Versailles, Bruno
Working Paper 13/145
Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama, and Dominican Republic
Johnson, Christian
Working Paper 13/146
Does Public-Sector Employment Fully Crowd Out Private-Sector Employment?
Behar, Alberto; Mok, Junghwan
Working Paper 13/147
Investing Volatile Oil Revenues in Capital-Scarce Economies: An Application to Angola
Richmond, Christine; Yackovlev, Irene; Yang, Shu-Chun
Working Paper 13/148
Bank Funding in Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe Post Lehman: A “New Normal”?
Impavido, Gregorio; Rudolph, Heinz; Ruggerone, Luigi
Working Paper 13/149
The Growth and Stabilization Properties of Fiscal Policy in Malaysia
Rafiq, Sohrab
Working Paper 13/150
How Do Banking Crises Affect Bilateral Exports?
Kiendrebeogo, Youssouf
Working Paper 13/151
The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation
Ball, Laurence; Furceri, Davide; Leigh, Daniel; Loungani, Prakash
Working Paper 13/152
The Elusive Quest for Inclusive Growth: Growth, Poverty, and Inequality in Asia
Ravi Balakrishnan; Chad Steinberg; Murtaza H. Syed
Working Paper 13/153
Fiscal Policy over the Election Cycle in Low-Income Countries
Christian Ebeke; Dilan Ölçer
Working Paper 13/154
Macrofinancial Implications of Corporate (De)Leveraging in the Euro Area Periphery
Manuela Goretti; Marcos Souto
Working Paper 13/155
Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy Transmission in Vietnam and Emerging Asia
Rina Bhattacharya
Working Paper 13/156
Country Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks
Luís Brandão Marques; Gaston Gelos; Natalia Melgar
Working Paper 13/157
Toward a Sustainable and Inclusive Consolidation in Lithuania: Past Experience and What Is Needed Going Forward
Nan Geng
Working Paper 13/158
Monetary Policy and Balance Sheets
Deniz Igan; Alain N. Kabundi; Francisco Nadal-De Simone; Natalia T. Tamirisa
Working Paper 13/159
Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel
Salvatore Dell’Erba; Sergio Sola
Working Paper 13/160
Basel Capital Requirements and Credit Crunch in the MENA Region
Sami Ben Naceur; Magda E. Kandil
Working Paper 13/161
Financial Depth in the WAEMU: Benchmarking Against Frontier SSA Countries
Calixte Ahokpossi; Kareem Ismail; Sudipto Karmakar; Mesmin Koulet-Vickot
Working Paper 13/162
Can a Government Enhance Long-Run Growth by Changing the Composition of Public Expenditure?
Santiago Acosta Ormaechea; Atsuyoshi Morozumi
Working Paper 13/163
Tax Coordination, Tax Competition, and Revenue Mobilization in the West African Economic and Monetary Union
Mario Mansour; Gregoire Rota Graziosi
Working Paper 13/164
Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets: Local Fundamentals and Global Factors vs. Ever-Changing Misalignments
Balazs Csonto; Iryna V. Ivaschenko
Working Paper 13/165
Institutional Arrangements for Macroprudential Policy in Asia
Cheng Hoon Lim; Rishi S Ramchand; Hong Wang; Xiaoyong Wu
Working Paper 13/166
The Macroprudential Framework: Policy Responsiveness and Institutional Arrangements
Cheng Hoon Lim; Ivo Krznar; Fabian Lipinsky; Akira Otani; Xiaoyong Wu
Working Paper 13/167
Evaluating the Net Benefits of Macroprudential Policy: A Cookbook
Nicolas Arregui; Jaromir Benes; Ivo Krznar; Srobona Mitra; Andre Santos
Working Paper 13/168
Systemic Risk Monitoring (“SysMo”) Toolkit—A User Guide
Nicolas R. Blancher; Srobona Mitra; Hanan Morsy; Akira Otani; Tiago Severo; Laura Valderrama
Working Paper 13/169
The Evolution of Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics: Many Paths to the Same Endpoint
Joong Shik Kang; Jay C. Shambaugh
Working Paper 13/170
Pressure or Prudence? Tales of Market Pressure and Fiscal Adjustment
Salvatore Dell’Erba; Todd D. Mattina; Agustin Roitman
Working Paper 13/171
What Explains Movements in the Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate?
Yi Wu
Working Paper 13/172
Bank Resolution Costs, Depositor Preference, and Asset Encumbrance
Daniel C. Hardy
Working Paper 13/173
Tax Administration Reform in the Francophone Countries of Sub-Saharan Africa
Patrick Fossat; Michel Bua
Working Paper 13/174
Sudden Stops, Time Inconsistency, and the Duration of Sovereign Debt
Juan Carlos Hatchondo; Leonardo Martinez
Working Paper 13/175
Financial Interconnectedness and Financial Sector Reforms in the Caribbean
Sumiko Ogawa; Joonkyu Park; Diva Singh; Nita Thacker
Working Paper 13/176
Benchmarking Structural Transformation Across the World
Era Dabla-Norris; Alun H. Thomas; Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu; Yingyuan Chen
Working Paper 13/177
HEAT! A Bank Health Assessment Tool
Li Lian Ong; Phakawa Jeasakul; Sarah Kwoh
Working Paper 13/178
Credibility and Crisis Stress Testing
Li Lian Ong; Ceyla Pazarbasioglu
IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website: http://www.imf.org/research.