The June issue of the IMF Research Bulletin looks at the role of IMF programs and capacity building in fostering structural reforms and the economics of Arab countries undergoing political transitions. The Q&A analyzes the neutral interest rate through the experiences of several Latin American countries. The Research Bulletin also includes its regular features: a listing of IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, information on the forthcoming IMF Economic Review and the Fourteenth Jacques Polack Annual Research Conference, and recommended readings from IMF Publications.

Abstract

The June issue of the IMF Research Bulletin looks at the role of IMF programs and capacity building in fostering structural reforms and the economics of Arab countries undergoing political transitions. The Q&A analyzes the neutral interest rate through the experiences of several Latin American countries. The Research Bulletin also includes its regular features: a listing of IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, information on the forthcoming IMF Economic Review and the Fourteenth Jacques Polack Annual Research Conference, and recommended readings from IMF Publications.

Working Paper 13/41

Infrastructure and Income Distribution in ASEAN-5: What are the Links?

Seneviratne, Dulani; Sun, Yan

Working Paper 13/42

Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany

Krebs, Tom; Scheffel, Martin

Working Paper 13/43

Structural Transformation and the Volatility of Aggregate Output in OECD Countries

Lonkeng Ngouana, Constant

Working Paper 13/44

Dealing with Private Debt Distress in the Wake of the European Financial Crisis: A Review of the Economics and Legal Toolbox

Liu, Yan; Rosenberg, Christoph

Working Paper 13/45

Asset Price Bubbles: A Selective Survey

Scherbina, Anna

Working Paper 13/46

Too Small to Fail? Subnational Spending Pressures in Europe

Eyraud, Luc; Moreno Badia, Marialuz

Working Paper 13/47

Financial Stability in an Evolving Regulatory and Supervisory Landscape

Xiao, Yingbin

Working Paper 13/48

Taxation, Bank Leverage, and Financial Crises

Mooij, Ruud A.; Keen, Michael; Orihara, Masanori

Working Paper 13/49

Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria: Low But Still Relevant

Muir, Dirk; Weber, Anke

Working Paper 13/50

The Endogenous Skill Bias of Technical Change and Inequality in Developing Countries

Behar, Alberto

Working Paper 13/51

Benchmarking Banking Sector Efficiency Across Regional Blocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Room for Policy?

Boutin-Dufresne, Francois; Peña, Santiago; Williams, Oral; Zawisza, Tomasz A.

Working Paper 13/52

Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Investment: The Case of Developing Countries

Al-sadiq, Ali

Working Paper 13/53

The Quality of the Recent High-Growth Episode in Sub-Saharan Africa

Martinez, Marcelo; Mlachila, Montfort

Working Paper 13/54

Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis—Estimating Market-Implied Systemic Risk

Jobst, Andreas A.; Gray, Dale

Working Paper 13/55

Getting to Know GIMF: The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model

Anderson, Derek; Hunt, Ben; Kortelainen, Mika; Kumhof, Michael; Laxton, Douglas; Muir, Dirk; Mursula, Susanna; Snudden, Stephen

Working Paper 13/56

Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel

Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; Loungani, Prakash; Tamirisa, Natalia

Working Paper 13/57

Targeting, Cascading, and Indirect Tax Design

Keen, Michael

Working Paper 13/58

A Framework for Efficient Government Investment

Warner, Andrew

Working Paper 13/59

External Linkages and Policy Constraints in Saudi Arabia

Westelius, Niklas

Working Paper 13/60

Quarterly GDP Revisions in G-20 Countries: Evidence from the 2008 Financial Crisis

Shrestha, Manik; Marini, Marco

Working Paper 13/61

Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries: Food and Non-Food Inflation in Kenya

Andrle, Michal; Berg, Andrew; Morales, R.; Portillo, Rafael; Vlcek, Jan

Working Paper 13/62

Export Performance in Europe: What Do We Know from Supply Links?

Rahman, Jesmin; Zhao, Tianli

Working Paper 13/63

Stock-Flow Adjustments, Government’s Integrated Balance Sheet and Fiscal Transparency

Seiferling, Mike

Working Paper 13/64

Rating Through-the-Cycle: What does the Concept Imply for Rating Stability and Accuracy?

Kiff, John; Kisser, Michael; Schumacher, Liliana

Working Paper 13/65

Rules, Discretion, and Macroprudential Policy

Agur, Itai; Sharma, Sunil

Working Paper 13/66

The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the UK Economy

Denis, Stephanie; Kannan, Prakash

Working Paper 13/67

The Challenge of Debt Reduction During Fiscal Consolidation

Eyraud, Luc; Weber, Anke

Working Paper 13/68

A Framework for Macroprudential Bank Solvency Stress Testing: Application to S-25 and Other G-20 Country FSAPs

Jobst, Andreas A.; Ong, Li; Schmieder, Christian

Working Paper 13/69

The Economics of Political Transitions: Implications for the Arab Spring

Khandelwal, Padamja; Roitman, Agustin

Working Paper 13/70

Factors Influencing Emerging Market Central Banks’ Decision to Intervene in Foreign Exchange Markets

Malloy, Matthew

Working Paper 13/71

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap

Aiyar, Shekhar; Duval, Romain; Puy, Damien; Wu, Yiqun; Zhang, Longmei

Working Paper 13/72

Non-Performing Loans in CESEE: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance

Klein, Nir

Working Paper 13/73

Aid, Exports, and Growth: A Time-Series Perspective on the Dutch Disease Hypothesis

Kang, Joong Shik; Prati, Alessandro; Rebucci, Alessandro

Working Paper 13/74

Rebalancing: Evidence from Current Account Adjustment in Europe

Atoyan, Ruben; Manning, Jonathan; Rahman, Jesmin

Working Paper 13/75

How Effective are Macroprudential Policies in China?

Wang, Bin; Sun, Tao

Working Paper 13/76

The Global Financial Crisis: An Anatomy of Global Growth

Matheson, Troy

Working Paper 13/77

Measuring and Mending Monetary Policy Effectiveness Under Capital Account Restrictions—Lessons from Mauritania

Blotevogel, Robert

Working Paper 13/78

Hitchhiker’s Guide to Inflation in Libya

Cevik, Serhan; Teksoz, Katerina

Working Paper 13/79

The Day After Tomorrow: Designing an Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Libya

Caceres, Carlos; Cevik, Serhan; Fenochietto, Ricardo; Gracia, Borja

Working Paper 13/80

Current Account Norms in Natural Resource Rich and Capital Scarce Economies

Araujo, Juliana; Li, Grace Bin; Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos; Zanna, Luis-Felipe

Working Paper 13/81

Too Cold, Too Hot, Or Just Right? Assessing Financial Sector Development Across the Globe

Barajas, Adolfo; Beck, Thornsten; Dabla-Norris, Era; Yousefi, Reza

Working Paper 13/82

China’s Demography and its Implications

Lee, Il Houng; Qingjun, Xu; Syed, Murtaza

Working Paper 13/83

China’s Path to Consumer-Based Growth: Reorienting Investment and Enhancing Efficiency

Lee, Il Houng; Syed, Murtaza; Xueyan, Liu

Working Paper 13/84

Italian Sovereign Spreads: Their Determinants and Pass-through to Bank Funding Costs and Lending Conditions

Zoli, Edda

Working Paper 13/85

Monetary Transaction Costs and the Term Premium

Espinoza, Raphael; Tsomocos, Dimitrios P.

Working Paper 13/86

“Leaning Against the Wind” and the Timing of Monetary Policy

Agur, Itai; Demertzis, Maria

Working Paper 13/87

GPM6—The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions

Carabenciov, Ioan; Freedman, Charles; Garcia-Saltos, Roberto; Laxton, Douglas; Kamenik, Ondra; Manchev, Petar

Working Paper 13/88

Market-Based Structural Top-Down Stress Tests of the Banking System

Chan-Lau, Jorge

Working Paper 13/89

Fiscal Sustainability: A 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed

Tanner, Evan

Working Paper 13/90

The Investment Technology of Foreign and Domestic Institutional Investors in an Emerging Market

Patnaik, Ila; Shah, Ajay

Working Paper 13/91

The Dynamic Effect of Social and Political Instability on Output: The Role of Reforms

Bernal-Verdugo, Lorenzo E.; Furceri, Davide; Guillaume, Dominique

Working Paper 13/92

Searching for the Finance-Growth Nexus in Libya

Cevik, Serhan; Rahmati, Mohammad

Working Paper 13/93

The Impact of Debt Sustainability and the Level of Debt on Emerging Markets Spreads

Belhocine, Nazim; Dell’Erba, Salvatore

Working Paper 13/94

International Evidence on Government Support and Risk Taking in the Banking Sector

Marques, Luís; Correa, Ricardo; Sapriza, Horacio

Working Paper 13/95

Another Look at Governments’ Balance Sheets: The Role of Nonfinancial Assets

Bova, Elva; Dippelsman, Robert; Rideout, Kara; Schaechter, Andrea

Working Paper 13/96

Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: Taming the Cycle

Steinberg, Chad

Working Paper 13/97

Productivity or Employment: Is It a Choice?

De Michelis, Andrea; Estevão, Marcello; Wilson, Beth Anne