The research summaries in the September 2012 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin are "Surges in Capital Flows: Why History Repeats Itself" (by Mahvash S. Qureshi) and "The LIC-BRIC Linkage: Growth Spillovers" (by Issouf Samake, Yongzheng Yang, and Catherine Pattillo). The Q&A covers "Seven Questions on Monetary Transmission in Low-Income Countries" (by Prachi Mishra and Peter Montiel). "Conversations with a Visiting Scholar" features an interview with IMF Fellow Olivier Coibion. Also included in this issue are details on the IMF Fellowship Program, visiting scholars at the IMF, a listing of recently published IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, and an announcement on IMF Economic Review's first Impact Factor.
Working Paper 12/107
Assessing Competitiveness Using Industry Unit Labor Costs: An Application to Slovakia
de Broeck, Mark; Guscina, Anastasia; Mehrez, Gil
Working Paper 12/108
Mobilizing Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa: Empirical Norms and Key Determinants
Drummond, Paulo; Daal, Wendell; Srivastava, Nandini; Oliveira, Luiz E.
Working Paper 12/109
The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology
Benes, Jaromir; Chauvet, Marcelle; Kamenik, Ondra; Kumhof, Michael; Laxton, Douglas; Mursula, Susanna; Selody, Jack
Working Paper 12/110
Dynamic Loan Loss Provisioning: Simulations on Effectiveness and Guide to Implementation
Wezel, Torsten; Chan-Lau, Jorge A.; Columba, Francesco
Working Paper 12/111
Natural Resources, Volatility, and Inclusive Growth: Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa
Arezki, Rabah; Nabli, Mustapha K.
Working Paper 12/112
Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes
Spatafora, Nicola; Samaké, Issouf
Working Paper 12/113
Fiscal Consolidation in Southeastern European Countries: The Role of Budget Institutions
Olden, Brian; Last, Duncan; Ylaoutinen, Sami; Sateriale, Carla
Working Paper 12/114
Bank Capitalization As a Signal
Hardy, Daniel C.
Working Paper 12/115
China’s Impact on World Commodity Markets
Roache, Shaun K.
Working Paper 12/116
Country Stress Events: Does Governance Matter?
Caceres, Carlos; Kochanova, Anna
Working Paper 12/117
Foreign Banks and the Vienna Initiative: Turning Sinners into Saints?
De Haas, Ralph; Korniyenko, Yevgeniya; Loukoianova, Elena; Pivovarsky, Alexander
Working Paper 12/118
Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for India
Patra, Michael Debabrata; Kapur, Muneesh
Working Paper 12/119
Tracking Short-Term Dynamics of Economic Activity in Low-Income Countries in the Absence of High-Frequency GDP Data
Opoku-Afari, Maxwell; Dixit, Shiv
Working Paper 12/120
Capital Inflows, Financial Development, and Domestic Investment: Determinants and Inter-Relationships
Luca, Oana; Spatafora, Nicola
Working Paper 12/121
Interest Rate Rules, Endogenous Cycles, and Chaotic Dynamics in Open Economies
Airaudo, Marco; Zanna, Luis-Felipe
Working Paper 12/122
Appraising Credit Ratings: Does the CAP Fit Better Than the ROC?
Irwin, R. John; Irwin, Timothy C.
Working Paper 12/123
Determinants of Credit Growth and Interest Margins in the Philippines and Asia
Tan, Tatum Blaise Pua
Working Paper 12/124
Do Dynamic Provisions Enhance Bank Solvency and Reduce Credit Procyclicality? A Study of the Chilean Banking System
Chan-Lau, Jorge A.
Working Paper 12/125
Why House Price Indexes Differ: Measurement and Analysis
Working Paper 12/126
Exchange Rate Pass Through to Prices in Maldives
Masha, Iyabo; Park, Chanho
Working Paper 12/127
As You Sow So Shall You Reap: Public Investment Surges, Growth, and Debt Sustainability in Togo
Andrle, Michal; David, Antonio; Espinoza, Raphael A.; Mills, Marshall; Zanna, Luis-Felipe
Working Paper 12/128
Quantifying Structural Subsidy Values for Systemically Important Financial Institutions
Ueda, Kenichi; Weder di Mauro, Beatrice
Working Paper 12/129
The Effects of Government Spending under Limited Capital Mobility
Shen, Wenyi; Yang, Shu-Chun S.
Working Paper 12/130
Surging Capital Flows to Emerging Asia: Facts, Impacts, and Responses
Balakrishnan, Ravi; Nowak, Sylwia; Panth, Sanjaya; Wu, Yiqun
Working Paper 12/131
Productivity Growth and Structural Reform in Bulgaria: Restarting the Convergence Engine
Mitra, Pritha; Pouvelle, Cyril
Working Paper 12/132
Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries
Espinoza, Raphael A.; Prasad, Ananthakrishnan
Working Paper 12/133
RMB Internationalization: Onshore/Offshore Links
Maziad, Samar; Kang, Joong Shik
Working Paper 12/134
The Volatility Trap: Precautionary Saving, Investment, and Aggregate Risk
Cherif, Reda; Hasanov, Fuad
Working Paper 12/135
Optimal Liquidity and Economic Stability
Han, Linghui; Lee, Il Houng
Working Paper 12/136
Welfare Effects of Monetary Integration: The Common Monetary Area and Beyond
Asonuma, Tamon; Debrun, Xavier; Masson, Paul R.
Working Paper 12/137
Walking Hand in Hand: Fiscal Policy and Growth in Advanced Economies
Cottarelli, Carlo; Jaramillo, Laura
Working Paper 12/138
Managing Large-Scale Capital Inflows: The Case of the Czech Republic, Poland, and Romania
Chowdhury, Ibrahim; Keller, Leonor
Working Paper 12/139
Tariff-Tax Reforms in Large Economies
Ganelli, Giovanni; Tervala, Juha
Working Paper 12/140
Financial Intermediation Costs in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Regulatory, Institutional, and Macroeconomic Factors
Working Paper 12/141
Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Sub-Saharan African Economies and Its Determinants
Razafimahefa, Ivohasina Fizara
Working Paper 12/142
Credit Growth and the Effectiveness of Reserve Requirements and Other Macroprudential Instruments in Latin America
Tovar Mora, Camilo Ernesto; Garcia-Escribano, Mercedes; Vera Martin, Mercedes
Working Paper 12/143
How Effective Is Monetary Transmission in Low-Income Countries? A Survey of the Empirical Evidence
Mishra, Prachi; Montiel, Peter
Working Paper 12/144
Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability: Putting Together the Pieces
Buffie, Edward F.; Berg, Andrew; Pattillo, Catherine A.; Portillo, Rafael; Zanna, Luis-Felipe
Working Paper 12/145
Intra-Regional Spillovers in South America: Is Brazil Systemic After All?
Adler, Gustavo; Sosa, Sebastian
Working Paper 12/146
Local Governments’ Fiscal Balance, Privatization, and Banking Sector Reform in Transition Countries
Working Paper 12/147
Inflation and Income Inequality: Is Food Inflation Different?
Walsh, James P. Yu, Jiangyan
Working Paper 12/148
The Relationship between the Foreign Exchange Regime and Macroeconomic Performance in Eastern Africa
Stotsky, Janet Gale; Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Adedeji, Olumuyiwa; Maehle, Nils O.
Working Paper 12/149
Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach
Working Paper 12/150
What Determines Government Spending Multipliers?
Corsetti, Giancarlo; Meier, André; Müller, Gernot
Working Paper 12/151
What’s in It for Me? A Primer on Differences Between Islamic and Conventional Finance in Malaysia
Krasicka, Olga; Nowak, Sylwia
Working Paper 12/152
Systemic Risk and Asymmetric Responses in the Financial Industry
López-Espinosa, Germán; Moreno, Antonio; Rubia, Antonio; Valderrama, Laura
Working Paper 12/153
Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows
Leeper, Eric M.; Walker, Todd B.; Yang, Shu-Chun S.
Working Paper 12/154
Global and Regional Spillovers to Pacific Island Countries
Sheridan, Niamh; Tumbarello, Patrizia; Wu, Yiqun
Working Paper 12/155
Banks’ Liability Structure and Mortgage Lending During the Financial Crisis
Dagher, Jihad; Kazimov, Kazim
Working Paper 12/156
Fiscal Transparency, Fiscal Performance and Credit Ratings
Arbatli, Elif; Escolano, Julio
Working Paper 12/157
Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt: Evidence from the Caribbean
Greenidge, Kevin; Craigwell, Roland; Thomas, Chrystol; Drakes, Lisa
Working Paper 12/158
Government Bonds and Their Investors: What Are the Facts and Do They Matter?
Andritzky, Jochen R.
Working Paper 12/159
Monitoring Systemic Risk Based on Dynamic Thresholds
Working Paper 12/160
Monetization in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
McLoughlin, Cameron; Kinoshita, Noriaki
Working Paper 12/161
Too Much Finance?
Arcand, Jean-Louis; Berkes, Enrico; Panizza, Ugo
Working Paper 12/162
Leverage? What Leverage? A Deep Dive into the U.S. Flow of Funds in Search of Clues to the Global Crisis
Bhatia, Ashok Vir; Bayoumi, Tamim
Working Paper 12/163
Systemic Banking Crises Database: An Update
Laeven, Luc; Valencia, Fabian
Working Paper 12/164
Quantifying Impact of Aging Population on Fiscal Space
Park, Seok Gil
Working Paper 12/165
Factor Endowment, Structural Coherence, and Economic Growth
Che, Natasha Xingyuan
Working Paper 12/166
Peru: Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies, 1930–1980
Pastor, Gonzalo C.
Working Paper 12/167
Evolution of Debt Sustainability Analysis in Low-Income Countries: Some Aggregate Evidence
Baduel, Benedicte; Price, Robert T.
Working Paper 12/168
Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility: Lessons from South Africa’s Capital Account Liberalization
Arezki, Rabah; Dumitrescu, Elena; Freytag, Andreas; Quintyn, Marc
Working Paper 12/169
On the Extrapolation with the Denton Proportional Benchmarking Method
Di Fonzo, Tommaso; Marini, Marco
Working Paper 12/170
The Impact of Longevity Improvements on U.S. Corporate Defined Benefit Pension Plans
Kisser, Michael; Kiff, John; Oppers, Stefan E.; Soto, Mauricio
Working Paper 12/171
Japan out of the Lost Decade: Divine Wind or Firms’ Effort?
Ogawa, Kazuo; Saito, Mika; Tokutsu, Ichiro
Working Paper 12/172
Paths to Eurobonds
Claessens, Stijn; Mody, Ashoka; Vallée, Shahin
Working Paper 12/173
Public Expenditure in the Slovak Republic: Composition and Technical Efficiency
Working Paper 12/174
Equity Returns in the Banking Sector in the Wake of the Great Recession and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis
Chan-Lau, Jorge A.; Liu, Estelle X; Schmittmann, Jochen M.
Working Paper 12/175
International Capital Flows and Debt Dynamics
Evans, Martin D. D.
Working Paper 12/176
Global Commodity Prices, Monetary Transmission, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Pacific Islands
Peiris, Shanaka J.; Ding, Ding
Working Paper 12/177
Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target of the South African Reserve Bank
Working Paper 12/178
Intertwined Sovereign and Bank Solvencies in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Crisis
Working Paper 12/179
The (Other) Deleveraging
Working Paper 12/180
Environmental Tax Reform: Principles from Theory and Practice to Date
Heine, Dirk; Norregaard, John; Parry, Ian W.H.
Working Paper 12/181
Macroprudential Policy in a Fisherian Model of Financial Innovation
Bianchi, Javier; Boz, Emine; Mendoza, Enrique G.
Working Paper 12/182
Quality of Government and Living Standards: Adjusting for the Efficiency of Public Spending
Grigoli, Francesco; Ley, Eduardo
Working Paper 12/183
Building Blocks for Effective Macroprudential Policies in Latin America: Institutional Considerations
Jácome, Luis Ignacio; Nier, Erlend; Imam, Patrick A.
Working Paper 12/184
Great Recession and Fiscal Squeeze at U.S. Subnational Government Level
Working Paper 12/185
Accelerating and Sustaining Growth: Economic and Political Lessons
Working Paper 12/186
Foreign Aid and Revenue: Still a Crowding Out Effect?
Benedek, Dora; Crivelli, Ernesto; Gupta, Sanjeev; Muthoora, Priscilla S.
Working Paper 12/187
Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis: Toward the “Next-Generation” Rules—A New Dataset
Schaechter, Andrea; Kinda, Tidiane; Budina, Nina; Weber, Anke
Working Paper 12/188
Riding Global Financial Waves: The Economic Impact of Global Financial Shocks on Emerging Market Economies
Adler, Gustavo; Tovar Mora, Camilo Ernesto
Working Paper 12/189
On Price Stability and Welfare
Yehoue, Etienne B.
Working Paper 12/190
Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe, and Japan
Batini, Nicoletta; Callegari, Giovanni; Melina, Giovanni
Working Paper 12/191
Lost in Transmission? The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in the GCC Countries
Cevik, Serhan; Teksoz, Katerina
Working Paper 12/192
Inflation Dynamics in Mongolia: Understanding the Roller Coaster
Barnett, Steven; Bersch, Julia; Ojima, Yasuhisa
Working Paper 12/193
Latin America: Vulnerabilities Under Construction?
Cubeddu, Luis M.; Tovar Mora, Camilo Ernesto; Tsounta, Evridiki
Working Paper 12/194
Measuring Systemic Liquidity Risk and the Cost of Liquidity Insurance
Working Paper 12/195
Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India
Cole, Shawn; Gine, Xavier; Tobacman, Jeremy; Topalova, Petia; Townsend, Robert M.; Vickery, James
IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded from the Research at the IMF website: www.imf.org/research.