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The research summaries in the September 2012 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin are "Surges in Capital Flows: Why History Repeats Itself" (by Mahvash S. Qureshi) and "The LIC-BRIC Linkage: Growth Spillovers" (by Issouf Samake, Yongzheng Yang, and Catherine Pattillo). The Q&A covers "Seven Questions on Monetary Transmission in Low-Income Countries" (by Prachi Mishra and Peter Montiel). "Conversations with a Visiting Scholar" features an interview with IMF Fellow Olivier Coibion. Also included in this issue are details on the IMF Fellowship Program, visiting scholars at the IMF, a listing of recently published IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, and an announcement on IMF Economic Review's first Impact Factor.

Abstract

The research summaries in the September 2012 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin are "Surges in Capital Flows: Why History Repeats Itself" (by Mahvash S. Qureshi) and "The LIC-BRIC Linkage: Growth Spillovers" (by Issouf Samake, Yongzheng Yang, and Catherine Pattillo). The Q&A covers "Seven Questions on Monetary Transmission in Low-Income Countries" (by Prachi Mishra and Peter Montiel). "Conversations with a Visiting Scholar" features an interview with IMF Fellow Olivier Coibion. Also included in this issue are details on the IMF Fellowship Program, visiting scholars at the IMF, a listing of recently published IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, and an announcement on IMF Economic Review's first Impact Factor.

Working Paper 12/107

Assessing Competitiveness Using Industry Unit Labor Costs: An Application to Slovakia

de Broeck, Mark; Guscina, Anastasia; Mehrez, Gil

Working Paper 12/108

Mobilizing Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa: Empirical Norms and Key Determinants

Drummond, Paulo; Daal, Wendell; Srivastava, Nandini; Oliveira, Luiz E.

Working Paper 12/109

The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology

Benes, Jaromir; Chauvet, Marcelle; Kamenik, Ondra; Kumhof, Michael; Laxton, Douglas; Mursula, Susanna; Selody, Jack

Working Paper 12/110

Dynamic Loan Loss Provisioning: Simulations on Effectiveness and Guide to Implementation

Wezel, Torsten; Chan-Lau, Jorge A.; Columba, Francesco

Working Paper 12/111

Natural Resources, Volatility, and Inclusive Growth: Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa

Arezki, Rabah; Nabli, Mustapha K.

Working Paper 12/112

Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes

Spatafora, Nicola; Samaké, Issouf

Working Paper 12/113

Fiscal Consolidation in Southeastern European Countries: The Role of Budget Institutions

Olden, Brian; Last, Duncan; Ylaoutinen, Sami; Sateriale, Carla

Working Paper 12/114

Bank Capitalization As a Signal

Hardy, Daniel C.

Working Paper 12/115

China’s Impact on World Commodity Markets

Roache, Shaun K.

Working Paper 12/116

Country Stress Events: Does Governance Matter?

Caceres, Carlos; Kochanova, Anna

Working Paper 12/117

Foreign Banks and the Vienna Initiative: Turning Sinners into Saints?

De Haas, Ralph; Korniyenko, Yevgeniya; Loukoianova, Elena; Pivovarsky, Alexander

Working Paper 12/118

Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for India

Patra, Michael Debabrata; Kapur, Muneesh

Working Paper 12/119

Tracking Short-Term Dynamics of Economic Activity in Low-Income Countries in the Absence of High-Frequency GDP Data

Opoku-Afari, Maxwell; Dixit, Shiv

Working Paper 12/120

Capital Inflows, Financial Development, and Domestic Investment: Determinants and Inter-Relationships

Luca, Oana; Spatafora, Nicola

Working Paper 12/121

Interest Rate Rules, Endogenous Cycles, and Chaotic Dynamics in Open Economies

Airaudo, Marco; Zanna, Luis-Felipe

Working Paper 12/122

Appraising Credit Ratings: Does the CAP Fit Better Than the ROC?

Irwin, R. John; Irwin, Timothy C.

Working Paper 12/123

Determinants of Credit Growth and Interest Margins in the Philippines and Asia

Tan, Tatum Blaise Pua

Working Paper 12/124

Do Dynamic Provisions Enhance Bank Solvency and Reduce Credit Procyclicality? A Study of the Chilean Banking System

Chan-Lau, Jorge A.

Working Paper 12/125

Why House Price Indexes Differ: Measurement and Analysis

Silver, Mick

Working Paper 12/126

Exchange Rate Pass Through to Prices in Maldives

Masha, Iyabo; Park, Chanho

Working Paper 12/127

As You Sow So Shall You Reap: Public Investment Surges, Growth, and Debt Sustainability in Togo

Andrle, Michal; David, Antonio; Espinoza, Raphael A.; Mills, Marshall; Zanna, Luis-Felipe

Working Paper 12/128

Quantifying Structural Subsidy Values for Systemically Important Financial Institutions

Ueda, Kenichi; Weder di Mauro, Beatrice

Working Paper 12/129

The Effects of Government Spending under Limited Capital Mobility

Shen, Wenyi; Yang, Shu-Chun S.

Working Paper 12/130

Surging Capital Flows to Emerging Asia: Facts, Impacts, and Responses

Balakrishnan, Ravi; Nowak, Sylwia; Panth, Sanjaya; Wu, Yiqun

Working Paper 12/131

Productivity Growth and Structural Reform in Bulgaria: Restarting the Convergence Engine

Mitra, Pritha; Pouvelle, Cyril

Working Paper 12/132

Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries

Espinoza, Raphael A.; Prasad, Ananthakrishnan

Working Paper 12/133

RMB Internationalization: Onshore/Offshore Links

Maziad, Samar; Kang, Joong Shik

Working Paper 12/134

The Volatility Trap: Precautionary Saving, Investment, and Aggregate Risk

Cherif, Reda; Hasanov, Fuad

Working Paper 12/135

Optimal Liquidity and Economic Stability

Han, Linghui; Lee, Il Houng

Working Paper 12/136

Welfare Effects of Monetary Integration: The Common Monetary Area and Beyond

Asonuma, Tamon; Debrun, Xavier; Masson, Paul R.

Working Paper 12/137

Walking Hand in Hand: Fiscal Policy and Growth in Advanced Economies

Cottarelli, Carlo; Jaramillo, Laura

Working Paper 12/138

Managing Large-Scale Capital Inflows: The Case of the Czech Republic, Poland, and Romania

Chowdhury, Ibrahim; Keller, Leonor

Working Paper 12/139

Tariff-Tax Reforms in Large Economies

Ganelli, Giovanni; Tervala, Juha

Working Paper 12/140

Financial Intermediation Costs in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Regulatory, Institutional, and Macroeconomic Factors

Poghosyan, Tigran

Working Paper 12/141

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Sub-Saharan African Economies and Its Determinants

Razafimahefa, Ivohasina Fizara

Working Paper 12/142

Credit Growth and the Effectiveness of Reserve Requirements and Other Macroprudential Instruments in Latin America

Tovar Mora, Camilo Ernesto; Garcia-Escribano, Mercedes; Vera Martin, Mercedes

Working Paper 12/143

How Effective Is Monetary Transmission in Low-Income Countries? A Survey of the Empirical Evidence

Mishra, Prachi; Montiel, Peter

Working Paper 12/144

Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability: Putting Together the Pieces

Buffie, Edward F.; Berg, Andrew; Pattillo, Catherine A.; Portillo, Rafael; Zanna, Luis-Felipe

Working Paper 12/145

Intra-Regional Spillovers in South America: Is Brazil Systemic After All?

Adler, Gustavo; Sosa, Sebastian

Working Paper 12/146

Local Governments’ Fiscal Balance, Privatization, and Banking Sector Reform in Transition Countries

Crivelli, Ernesto

Working Paper 12/147

Inflation and Income Inequality: Is Food Inflation Different?

Walsh, James P. Yu, Jiangyan

Working Paper 12/148

The Relationship between the Foreign Exchange Regime and Macroeconomic Performance in Eastern Africa

Stotsky, Janet Gale; Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Adedeji, Olumuyiwa; Maehle, Nils O.

Working Paper 12/149

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Vitek, Francis

Working Paper 12/150

What Determines Government Spending Multipliers?

Corsetti, Giancarlo; Meier, André; Müller, Gernot

Working Paper 12/151

What’s in It for Me? A Primer on Differences Between Islamic and Conventional Finance in Malaysia

Krasicka, Olga; Nowak, Sylwia

Working Paper 12/152

Systemic Risk and Asymmetric Responses in the Financial Industry

López-Espinosa, Germán; Moreno, Antonio; Rubia, Antonio; Valderrama, Laura

Working Paper 12/153

Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows

Leeper, Eric M.; Walker, Todd B.; Yang, Shu-Chun S.

Working Paper 12/154

Global and Regional Spillovers to Pacific Island Countries

Sheridan, Niamh; Tumbarello, Patrizia; Wu, Yiqun

Working Paper 12/155

Banks’ Liability Structure and Mortgage Lending During the Financial Crisis

Dagher, Jihad; Kazimov, Kazim

Working Paper 12/156

Fiscal Transparency, Fiscal Performance and Credit Ratings

Arbatli, Elif; Escolano, Julio

Working Paper 12/157

Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt: Evidence from the Caribbean

Greenidge, Kevin; Craigwell, Roland; Thomas, Chrystol; Drakes, Lisa

Working Paper 12/158

Government Bonds and Their Investors: What Are the Facts and Do They Matter?

Andritzky, Jochen R.

Working Paper 12/159

Monitoring Systemic Risk Based on Dynamic Thresholds

Lund-Jensen, Kasper

Working Paper 12/160

Monetization in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

McLoughlin, Cameron; Kinoshita, Noriaki

Working Paper 12/161

Too Much Finance?

Arcand, Jean-Louis; Berkes, Enrico; Panizza, Ugo

Working Paper 12/162

Leverage? What Leverage? A Deep Dive into the U.S. Flow of Funds in Search of Clues to the Global Crisis

Bhatia, Ashok Vir; Bayoumi, Tamim

Working Paper 12/163

Systemic Banking Crises Database: An Update

Laeven, Luc; Valencia, Fabian

Working Paper 12/164

Quantifying Impact of Aging Population on Fiscal Space

Park, Seok Gil

Working Paper 12/165

Factor Endowment, Structural Coherence, and Economic Growth

Che, Natasha Xingyuan

Working Paper 12/166

Peru: Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies, 1930–1980

Pastor, Gonzalo C.

Working Paper 12/167

Evolution of Debt Sustainability Analysis in Low-Income Countries: Some Aggregate Evidence

Baduel, Benedicte; Price, Robert T.

Working Paper 12/168

Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility: Lessons from South Africa’s Capital Account Liberalization

Arezki, Rabah; Dumitrescu, Elena; Freytag, Andreas; Quintyn, Marc

Working Paper 12/169

On the Extrapolation with the Denton Proportional Benchmarking Method

Di Fonzo, Tommaso; Marini, Marco

Working Paper 12/170

The Impact of Longevity Improvements on U.S. Corporate Defined Benefit Pension Plans

Kisser, Michael; Kiff, John; Oppers, Stefan E.; Soto, Mauricio

Working Paper 12/171

Japan out of the Lost Decade: Divine Wind or Firms’ Effort?

Ogawa, Kazuo; Saito, Mika; Tokutsu, Ichiro

Working Paper 12/172

Paths to Eurobonds

Claessens, Stijn; Mody, Ashoka; Vallée, Shahin

Working Paper 12/173

Public Expenditure in the Slovak Republic: Composition and Technical Efficiency

Grigoli, Francesco

Working Paper 12/174

Equity Returns in the Banking Sector in the Wake of the Great Recession and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

Chan-Lau, Jorge A.; Liu, Estelle X; Schmittmann, Jochen M.

Working Paper 12/175

International Capital Flows and Debt Dynamics

Evans, Martin D. D.

Working Paper 12/176

Global Commodity Prices, Monetary Transmission, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Pacific Islands

Peiris, Shanaka J.; Ding, Ding

Working Paper 12/177

Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target of the South African Reserve Bank

Klein, Nir

Working Paper 12/178

Intertwined Sovereign and Bank Solvencies in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Crisis

Adler, Gustavo

Working Paper 12/179

The (Other) Deleveraging

Singh, Manmoh

Working Paper 12/180

Environmental Tax Reform: Principles from Theory and Practice to Date

Heine, Dirk; Norregaard, John; Parry, Ian W.H.

Working Paper 12/181

Macroprudential Policy in a Fisherian Model of Financial Innovation

Bianchi, Javier; Boz, Emine; Mendoza, Enrique G.

Working Paper 12/182

Quality of Government and Living Standards: Adjusting for the Efficiency of Public Spending

Grigoli, Francesco; Ley, Eduardo

Working Paper 12/183

Building Blocks for Effective Macroprudential Policies in Latin America: Institutional Considerations

Jácome, Luis Ignacio; Nier, Erlend; Imam, Patrick A.

Working Paper 12/184

Great Recession and Fiscal Squeeze at U.S. Subnational Government Level

Jonas, Jiri

Working Paper 12/185

Accelerating and Sustaining Growth: Economic and Political Lessons

Virmani, Arvind

Working Paper 12/186

Foreign Aid and Revenue: Still a Crowding Out Effect?

Benedek, Dora; Crivelli, Ernesto; Gupta, Sanjeev; Muthoora, Priscilla S.

Working Paper 12/187

Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis: Toward the “Next-Generation” Rules—A New Dataset

Schaechter, Andrea; Kinda, Tidiane; Budina, Nina; Weber, Anke

Working Paper 12/188

Riding Global Financial Waves: The Economic Impact of Global Financial Shocks on Emerging Market Economies

Adler, Gustavo; Tovar Mora, Camilo Ernesto

Working Paper 12/189

On Price Stability and Welfare

Yehoue, Etienne B.

Working Paper 12/190

Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe, and Japan

Batini, Nicoletta; Callegari, Giovanni; Melina, Giovanni

Working Paper 12/191

Lost in Transmission? The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in the GCC Countries

Cevik, Serhan; Teksoz, Katerina

Working Paper 12/192

Inflation Dynamics in Mongolia: Understanding the Roller Coaster

Barnett, Steven; Bersch, Julia; Ojima, Yasuhisa

Working Paper 12/193

Latin America: Vulnerabilities Under Construction?

Cubeddu, Luis M.; Tovar Mora, Camilo Ernesto; Tsounta, Evridiki

Working Paper 12/194

Measuring Systemic Liquidity Risk and the Cost of Liquidity Insurance

Severo, Tiago

Working Paper 12/195

Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India

Cole, Shawn; Gine, Xavier; Tobacman, Jeremy; Topalova, Petia; Townsend, Robert M.; Vickery, James

IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded from the Research at the IMF website: www.imf.org/research.

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