This paper provides a brief overview of the latest research on the ability of forecasters to predict recessions. The paper highlights that few recessions have been forecast before their onset. Forecasters tend to be excessively cautious and do not revise their forecasts promptly and sufficiently to reflect incoming news. Nor do they fully take into account interdependence among economies. This paper also focuses on robust growth determinants highlighting that a fundamental problem confronting researchers is the lack of an explicit theory identifying the determinants of growth.
Staff Position Notes showcase new policy-related analysis and research by IMF departments. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. To access the series, point your browser to www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=236.
Global Imbalances: In Midstream?
Olivier Blanchard and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti
U.S. Consumption after the 2008 Crisis
Jaewoo Lee, Pau Rabanal, and Damiano Sandri
Approaches to Corporate Debt Restructuring in the Wake of Financial Crises
Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy
Olivier Blanchard, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Paolo Mauro
Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls
Jonathan D. Ostry, Atish R. Ghosh, Karl Habermeier, Marcos Chamon, Mahvash S. Qureshi, and Dennis B.S. Reinhardt
Petroleum Product Subsidies: Costly, Inequitable, and Rising
David Coady, Robert Gillingham, Rolando Ossowski, John Piotrowski, Shamsuddin Tareq, and Justin Tyson
IMF Research Bulletin
M. Ayhan Kose
Feras Abu Amra
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