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IMF Research Bulletin, March 2010
Author:
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
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Series:
IMF Research Bulletin
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2010: Issue 001
Language:
English
Publication Date:
12 Feb 2010
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455291625.026
ISBN:
9781455291625
ISSN:
1020-8313
Pages:
12
Keywords:
IRB; IMF research bulletin; house price; recession; bulletin; price; parameter estimate uncertainty; staff position note; IMF research; debt irrelevance; Housing prices; Housing; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Inflation; Global; Africa; Eastern Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa
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The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Material from this publication may be reprinted with proper attribution.
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This paper provides a brief overview of the latest research on the ability of forecasters to predict recessions. The paper highlights that few recessions have been forecast before their onset. Forecasters tend to be excessively cautious and do not revise their forecasts promptly and sufficiently to reflect incoming news. Nor do they fully take into account interdependence among economies. This paper also focuses on robust growth determinants highlighting that a fundamental problem confronting researchers is the lack of an explicit theory identifying the determinants of growth.
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Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin
ISSN:
1020-8313
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund