IMF research summaries on global population aging and pension reform (by Mario Catalán) and on questions about decoupling (by M. Ayhan Kose); country study on the United States (by Koshy Mathai); listing of visiting scholars at the IMF during June–August 2008; listing of contents of Vol. 55 No. 3 of IMF Staff Papers; listing of recent IMF Working Papers; and a listing of recent external publications by IMF staff.


IMF research summaries on global population aging and pension reform (by Mario Catalán) and on questions about decoupling (by M. Ayhan Kose); country study on the United States (by Koshy Mathai); listing of visiting scholars at the IMF during June–August 2008; listing of contents of Vol. 55 No. 3 of IMF Staff Papers; listing of recent IMF Working Papers; and a listing of recent external publications by IMF staff.

No. 07/271

Simple Monetary Rules Under Fiscal Dominance

Kumhof, Michael; Nunes, Ricardo; Yakadina, Irina

No. 07/272

The Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Transmission: Does It Work in Turkey?

Koeva Brooks, Petya

No. 07/273

Do Remittances to Latin America Depend on the U.S. Business Cycle?

Roache, Shaun K.; Gradzka, Ewa

No. 07/274

Tax Policy: Recent Trends and Coming Challenges

Norregaard, John; Khan, Tehmina S.

No. 07/275

How Well Do Aggregate Bank Ratios Identify Banking Problems?

Cihák, Martin; Schaeck, Klaus

No. 07/276

Estimating Iceland’s Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate

Tchaidze, Robert

No. 07/277

Empirical Evidence on the New International Aid Architecture

Claessens, Stijn; Cassimon, Danny; Campenhout, Bjorn Van

No. 07/278

High Growth and Low Consumption in East Asia: How to Improve Welfare While Avoiding Financial Failures

Feltenstein, Andrew; Rochon, Céline; Shamloo, Maral

No. 07/279

Financial Globalization and Monetary Policy

Devereux, Michael B.; Sutherland, Alan

No. 07/280

Changing Nature of North-South Linkages: Stylized Facts and Explanations

Akin, Çigdem; Kose, M. Ayhan

No. 07/281

International Diversification Gains and Home Bias in Banking

García-Herrero, Alicia; Vázquez, Francisco F.

No. 07/282

An Estimated DSGE Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries

Peiris, Shanaka J.; Saxegaard, Magnus

No. 07/283

Country Portfolio Dynamics

Devereux, Michael B.; Sutherland, Alan

No. 07/284

Solving for Country Portfolios in Open Economy Macro Models

Devereux, Michael B.; Sutherland, Alan

No. 07/285

The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Egypt

Al-Mashat, Rania A.; Billmeier, Andreas

No. 07/286

Buoyant Capital Spending and Worries over Real Appreciation: Cold Facts from Algeria

Loko, Boileau; Kpodar, Kangni; Diallo, Oumar

No. 07/287

Testing for Purchasing Power Parity in Cointegrated Panels

Carlsson, Mikael; Lyhagen, Johan; Österholm, Pär

No. 07/288

Equity and Private Debt Markets in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic

Shah, Hemant; Carvajal, Ana; Bannister, Geoffrey J.; Chan-Lau, Jorge A.; Guerra, Ivan

No. 07/289

Government for the People: On the Determinants of the Size of U.S. Government

Bayoumi, Tamim; Gonçalves, Fernando M.

No. 07/290

Stochastic Volatilities and Correlations, Extreme Values and Modeling the Macroeconomic Environment, Under Which Brazilian Banks Operate

Barnhill, Theodore M.; Souto, Marcos

No. 07/291

Use of Participatory Notes in Indian Equity Markets and Recent Regulatory Changes

Singh, Manmohan

No. 07/292

Border and Behind-the-Border Trade Barriers and Country Exports

Sadikov, Azim M.

No. 07/293

Do Reserve Portfolios Respond to Exchange Rate Changes Using a Portfolio Rebalancing Strategy? An Econometric Study Using COFER Data

Lim, Ewe-Ghee

No. 07/294

Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets

Bacha, Edmar L.; Holland, Márcio; Gonçalves, Fernando M.

No. 07/295

Modeling Inflation for Mali

Diouf, Mame Astou

No. 07/296

Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Assessment Methodologies

Isard, Peter

No. 07/297

Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Pacific Island Countries: Macro-Fiscal Linkages

Le Borgne, Eric; Medas, Paulo A.

No. 07/298

How has the Globalization of Labor Affected the Labor Income Share in Advanced Countries?

Jaumotte, Florence; Tytell, Irina

No. 07/299

Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Supply for the G-7 Countries, with Emphasis on Germany

Strand, Jon

No. 08/1

Optimal Capital Structure of Public-Private Partnerships

Moszoro, Marian; Gasiorowski, Pawel

No. 08/2

Spillovers to Ireland

Kanda, Daniel

No. 08/3

Spillovers Across NAFTA

Swiston, Andrew; Bayoumi, Tamim

No. 08/4

Does Technological Diffusion Explain Australia’s Productivity Performance?

Tressel, Thierry

No. 08/5

The Role of Institutional Quality in a Currency Crisis Model

Wu, Yi

No. 08/6

Financial Instruments to Hedge Commodity Price Risk for Developing Countries

Lu, Y.; Neftci, Salih N.

No. 08/7

Tax Rate Cuts and Tax Compliance—The Laffer Curve Revisited

Papp, Tamás K.; Takáts, Elöd

IMF Staff Papers

Volume 55 Number 3

Special Issue: IMF Eighth Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference

“Mundeil-Fleming Lecture: Exchange Rate Systems, Surveillance, and Advice”

Stanley Fischer

“Estimation of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes: Synthesis of the Techniques for Inferring Flexibility and Basket Weights”

Jeffrey Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei

“Exchange Rate Policy Attitudes: Direct Evidence from Survey Data”

J. Lawrence Broz, Jeffry Frieden, and Stephen Weymouth

“Fear of Declaring: Do Markets Care What Countries Say About Their Exchange Rate Policies?”

Adolfo Barajas, Lennart Erickson, and Roberto Steiner

“A Micro-Empirical Foundation for the Political Economy of Exchange Rate Populism”

Irineu de Carvalho Filho and Marcos Chamon

“Global Rebalancing with Gravity: Measuring the Burden of Adjustment”

Robert Dekle, Jonathan Eaton, and Samuel Kortum

For information on ordering and pricing, please point your browser to To read articles in this and other issues of IMF Staff Papers and the data underlying them on the Web, please see

No. 08/8

Capital Flows and Demographics—An Asian Perspective

Lueth, Erik

No. 08/9

Evaluating Alternative Approaches to Poverty Alleviation: Rice Tariffs versus Targeted Transfers in Madagascar

Coady, David; Dorosh, Paul A.; Minten, Bart

No. 08/10

Emerging Market Spread Compression: Is it Real or Is it Liquidity?

Hartelius, Kristian; Kashiwase, Kenichiro; Kodres, Laura E.

No. 08/11

International Reserves—Too Much of a Zipf’s Thing

Sumlinski, Mariusz

No. 08/12

Capital Flows and Economic Fluctuations: The Role of Commercials Banks in Transmitting Shocks

Zhou, Yong Sarah

No. 08/13

Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Cross-Country Perspective

Ricci, Luca Antonio; Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria; Lee, Jaewoo

No. 08/14

The Impact of Trade Liberalization on the Trade Balance in Developing Countries

Wu, Yi; Zeng, Li

No. 08/15

Trade Restrictiveness in the CEMAC Region. The Case of Congo

Oliva, Maria-Angels

No. 08/16

Islamic Banks and Financial Stability: An Empirical Analysis

Cihák, Martin; Hesse, Heiko

No. 08/17

Lebanon-Weathering the Perfect Storms

Schimmelpfennig, Axel; Gardner, E. H.

No. 08/18

Taylor Rule Under Financial Instability

Bauducco, Sofia; Bulíř, Aleš; Cihák, Martin

No. 08/19

Microeconomic Implications of Remittances in an Overlapping Generations Model with Altruism and Self-Interest

Grigorian, David A.; Melkonyan, Tigran A.

No. 08/20

Financial Frictions and Business Cycles in Middle-Income Countries

Guajardo, Jaime

No. 08/21

Inflation Differentials in the EU: A Common (Factors) Approach with Implications for EU-8 Euro Adoption Prospects

Choueiri, Nada; Ohnsorge, Franziska; van Elkan, Rachel

No. 08/22

Show Me the Money: Access to Finance for Small Borrowers in Canada

Klyuev, Vladimir

No. 08/23

Real Implications of Financial Linkages Between Canada and the United States

Klyuev, Vladimir

No. 08/24

Do Technology Shocks Lead to Productivity Slowdowns? Evidence from Patent Data

Christiansen, Lone E.

No. 08/25

Why is Canada’s Price Level So Predictable?

Kamenik, Ondra; Kiem, Heesun; Klyuev, Vladimir; Laxton, Douglas

No. 08/26

Foreign Direct Investment and Structural Reforms: Evidence from Eastern Europe and Latin America

Campos, Nauro F.; Kinoshita, Yuko

Visiting Scholars, June–August 2008

Joshua Aizenman; University of California, Santa Cruz; 6/9/08–7/31/08

Alan Heston; University of Pennsylvania; 6/19/08–6/20/08

Sung Wook Joh; Seoul National University, Korea; 6/30/08–8/20/08

Christopher Meissner; University of Cambridge, England; 6/9/08–7/31/08

Hyun Song Shin; Princeton University, NJ; 6/27/08–7/31/08

Rima Turk Ariss; Lebanese American University, Lebanon; 6/23/08–6/27/08

No. 08/27

Addressing Korea’s Long-Term Fiscal Challenges

Feyzioglu, Tarhan; Skaarup, Michael; Syed, Murtaza H.

No. 08/28

Where Did All the Borrowing Go? A Forensic Analysis of the U.S. External Position

Lane, Philip R.; Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria

No. 08/29

Remittances and Institutions: Are Remittances a Curse?

Abdih, Yasser; Chami, Ralph; Dagher, Jihad; Montiel, Peter

No. 08/30

The Effects of Early Retirement on Youth Unemployment: The Case of Belgium

Jousten, Alain; Lefebvre, Mathieu; Perelman, Sergio; Pestieau, Pierre

No. 08/31

Canadian Firm and Job Dynamics

Balakrishnan, Ravi

No. 08/32

The Determinants of Stock Market Development in Emerging Economies: Is South Africa Different?

Yartey, Charles Amo

No. 08/33

External Tariff Liberalization in CARICOM: A Commodity-Level Analysis

Sadikov, Azim M.

No. 08/34

Where Did All the Aid Go? An Empirical Analysis of Absorption and Spending

Aiyar, Shekhar; Ruthbah, Ummul

No. 08/35

Importer and Producer Petroleum Taxation: A Geo-Political Model

Strand, Jon

No. 08/36

Terms of Trade Shocks and Economic Recovery

Funke, Norbert; Granziera, Eleonara; Imam, Patrick A.

No. 08/37

Issues in Central Bank Finance and Independence

Stella, Peter; Lonnberg, Ake

No. 08/38

Beneficial Delays in Debt Restructuring Negotiations

Bi, Ran

No. 08/39

Big Government, High Debt, and Fiscal Adjustment in Small States

Medina Cas, Stephanie; Ota, Rui

No. 08/40

A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework: Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty

Gray, Dale F.; Loukoianova, Elena; Malone, Samuel; Lim, Cheng Hoon

No. 08/41

International Reserve Trends in the South Caucasus and Central Asia Region

Floerkemeier, Holger; Sumlinski, Mariusz A.

No. 08/42

Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: A Fresh Perspective

Aisen, Ari; Hauner, David

No. 08/43

Regional Wage Differentiation and Wage Bargaining Systems in the EU

Vamvakidis, Athanasios

No. 08/44

Debt Sustainability under Catastrophic Risk: The Case for Government Budget Insurance

Borensztein, Eduardo; Cavallo, Eduardo A.; Valenzuela, Patricio

No. 08/45

Aggregate Investment Expenditures on Tradable and Nontradable Goods

Bems, Rudolfs

No. 08/46

External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from a Bayesian VAR Model

Abrego, Lisandro; Österholm, Pär

No. 08/47

Helping Hand or Grabbing Hand? Supervisory Architecture, Financial Structure and Market View

Masciandaro, Donato; Quintyn, Marc

No. 08/48

A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa

Harjes, Thomas; Ricci, Luca Antonio

No. 08/49

Central Bank Financial Strength, Policy Constraints and Inflation

Stella, Peter

No. 08/50

Central America’s Regional Trends and U.S. Cycles

Roache, Shaun K.

No. 08/51

The Landscape of Capital Flows to Low-Income Countries

Dorsey, Thomas William; Tadesse, Helaway; Singh, Sukhwinder; Brixiova, Zuzana

No. 08/52

Tax and Welfare Reforms in the Czech Republic -Structural Implications and Challenges

Dalsgaard, Thomas

No. 08/53

Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs

Berger, Helge; Österholm, Pär

No. 08/54

India: Is the Rising Tide Lifting All Boats?

Topalova, Petia

No. 08/55

Credit Cyclicality in Chile: A Cross-Country Perspective

Söderling, Ludvig

No. 08/56

Effective Average Tax Rates for Permanent Investment

Klemm, Alexander

No. 08/57

Hong Kong SAR as a Financial Center for Asia: Trends and Implications

Leung, Cynthia; Unteroberdoerster, Olaf

No. 08/58

A Stochastic Framework for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis

Di Bella, Gabriel

No. 08/59

What Makes Growth Sustained?

Ostry, Jonathan David; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin; Berg, Andrew

No. 08/60

Imperfect Central Bank Communication—Information versus Distraction

Dale, Spencer; Orphanides, Athanasios; Österholm, Pär

No. 08/61

Business Cycle Accounting For Chile

Simonovska, Ina; Soderling, Ludvig

No. 08/62

Financial Development and Poverty Reduction: Can There Be a Benefit Without a Cost?

Jeanneney, Sylviane Guillaumont; Kpodar, Kangni

No. 08/63

Analysis of the Efficiency and Profitability of the Japanese Banking System

Loukoianova, Elena

No. 08/64

A Small Structural Monetary Policy Model for Small Open Economies with Debt Accumulation

Karam, Philippe D; Pagan, Adrian

No. 08/65

Regionalism or Multilateralism? A Political Economy Choice

Albertin, Giorgia

No. 08/66

Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited: Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects

Eicher, Theo; Henn, Christian; Papageorgiou, Chris

No. 08/67

Local Service Provision in Selected OECD Countries: Do Decentralized Operations Work Better?

Ahmad, Ehtisham; Brosio, Giorgio; Tanzi, Vito

No. 08/68

Trade in the WAEMU: Developments and Reform Opportunities

Goretti, Manuela; Weisfeld, Hans

No. 08/69

Achieving a Soft Landing: The Role of Fiscal Policy

Leigh, Daniel

No. 08/70

Japan’s Corporate Income Tax - Overview and Challenges

Dalsgaard, Thomas

No. 08/71

Political Economy of Multi-Level Tax Assignments in Latin American Countries: Earmarked Revenue versus Tax Autonomy

Ahmad, Ehtisham; Brosio, Giorgio

No. 08/72

Challenges to Monetary Policy in the Czech Republic—An Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Analysis

Allard, Céline; Muñoz, Sònia

No. 08/73

The Monetary Model Strikes Back: Evidence from the World

Cerra, Valerie; Saxena, Sweta Chaman

No. 08/74

The Reform of Italian Cooperative Banks: Discussion of Proposals

Gutierrez, Eva

No. 08/75

Testing for Structural Breaks in Small Samples

Antoshin, Sergei; Berg, Andrew; Souto, Marcos

No. 08/76

Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs

Berger, Helge; Österholm, Pär

No. 08/77

Corporate Income Tax Competition in the Caribbean

Ben Nassar, Koffie

No. 08/78

Pass-Through of External Shocks to Inflation in Sri Lanka

Duma, Nombulelo

No. 08/79

Financial Development and Growth in India: A Growing Tiger in a Cage?

Oura, Hiroko

No. 08/80

Are Diamonds Forever? Using the Permanent Income Hypothesis to Analyze Botswana’s Reliance on Diamond Revenue

Basdevant, Olivier

No. 08/81

High and Volatile Treasury Yields in Tanzania: The Role of Strategic Bidding and Auction Microstructure

Abbas, S. M. Ali; Sobolev, Yuri Vladimirovich

No. 08/82

Breaking the Impediments to Budgetary Reforms: Evidence from Europe

Fabrizio, Stefania; Mody, Ashoka

No. 08/83

Exchange Rate Assessment in a Resource-Dependent Economy: The Case of Botswana

Deléchat, Corinne; Gaertner, Matthew

No. 08/84

Striving to Be “Clearly Open” and “Crystal Clear:” Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB

Bulíř, Aleš; Smídková, Katerina

No. 08/85

Investors’ Risk Appetite and Global Financial Market Conditions

González-Hermosillo, Brenda

No. 08/86

Business Cycles in Small Developed Economies: The Role of Terms of Trade and Foreign Interest Rate Shocks

Guajardo, Jaime

IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website:

IMF Research Bulletin, September 2008
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.