IMF research summaries on (1) oil market developments and the global economy (by Selim Elekdag), and (2) credit booms (by Marco Terrones); country study on India (by Helene Poirson); call for papers for November 2007 Jacques Polak Eighth Annual Research Conference; listing of contents of Vol. 54, Issue No. 2 of IMF Staff Papers; listing of recent IMF Working Papers; and listing of visiting scholars at the IMF during April-June 2007


IMF research summaries on (1) oil market developments and the global economy (by Selim Elekdag), and (2) credit booms (by Marco Terrones); country study on India (by Helene Poirson); call for papers for November 2007 Jacques Polak Eighth Annual Research Conference; listing of contents of Vol. 54, Issue No. 2 of IMF Staff Papers; listing of recent IMF Working Papers; and listing of visiting scholars at the IMF during April-June 2007


No. 06/222

“Economic and Political Determinants of Tax Amnesties in the U.S. States”

Le Borgne, Eric

No. 06/223

“Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices”

Segoviano Basurto, Miguel A.; Goodhart, C. A. E.; Hofmann, Boris

No. 06/224

“A Debt Overhang Model for Low-Income Countries: Implications for Debt Relief”

Koeda, Junko

No. 06/225

“Assessing Banking Sector Soundness in a Long-Term Framework: The Case of Venezuela”

Blavy, Rodolphe

No. 06/226

“Beauty Queens and Wallflowers: Currency Unions in the Middle East and Central Asia”

Berengaut, Julian; Elborgh-Woytek, Katrin

No. 06/227

“The Measurement of Central Bank Autonomy: Survey of Models, Indicators, and Empirical Evidence”

Arnone, Marco; Laurens, Bernard; Segalotto, Jean-Francois

No. 06/228

“Measures of Central Bank Autonomy: Empirical Evidence for OECD, Developing, and Emerging Market Economies”

Arnone, Marco; Laurens, Bernard; Segalotto, Jean-Francois

No. 06/229

“The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries: Formulas and Applications”

Jeanne, Olivier; Ranciere, Romain

No. 06/230

“Productivity Growth, Technological Convergence, R&D, Trade, and Labor Markets: Evidence from the French Manufacturing Sector”

No. 06/231

“Barriers to Retail Competition and Prices: Evidence from Spain”

Hoffmaister, Alexander W.

No. 06/232

“Gender Budgeting”

Stotsky, Janet Gale

No. 06/233

“Gender and Its Relevance to Macroeconomic Policy: A Survey”

Stotsky, Janet Gale

No. 06/234

“Pacific Island Countries: Possible Common Currency Arrangement”

Browne, Christopher; Orsmond, David William Harold

No. 06/235

“Public Debt and Productivity: The Difficult Quest for Growth in Jamaica”

Blavy, Rodolphe

No. 06/236

“FEER for the CFA Franc”

Abdih, Yasser; Tsangarides, Charalambos G.

No. 06/237

“Diversity in the Workplace”

Morgan, John; Vardy, Felix J. J.

No. 06/238

“Bond Markets as Conduits for Capital Flows: How Does Asia Compare? “

Eichengreen, Barry J.; Luengnaruemitchai, Pipat

No. 06/239

“How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources?”

Elekdag, Selim

No. 06/240

“Revenue Authorities: Issues and Problems in Evaluating Their Success”

Kidd, Maureen; Crandall, William Joseph

No. 06/241

“Integration of the Securities Market Infrastructure in the European Union: Policy and Regulatory Issues”

Kazarian, Elias G.

No. 06/242

“Banking on the Principles: Compliance with Basel Core Principles and Bank Soundness”

Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli; Detragiache, Enrica; Tressel, Thierry

No. 06/243

“Fuel Price Subsidies in Gabon: Fiscal Cost and Distributional Impact”

El-Said, Moataz; Leigh, Daniel

No. 06/244

“New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies”

Segura-Ubiergo, Alex; Simone, Alejandro; Gupta, Sanjeev

No. 06/245

“A Small Foreign Exchange Market with a Long-Term Peg: Barbados”

Worrell, DeLisle; Craigwell, Roland; Mitchell, Travis

No. 06/246

“Monetary Transmission Mechanisms in Belarus”

Horvath, Balazs; Maino, Rodolfo

No. 06/247

“The Magnitude and Distribution of Fuel Subsidies: Evidence from Bolivia, Ghana, Jordan, Mali, and Sri Lanka”

Coady, David; El-Said, Moataz; Gillingham, Robert; Kpodar, Kangni; Medas, Paulo A.; Newhouse, David Locke

No. 06/248

“Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy in Armenia: Evidence from VAR Analysis”

Dabla-Norris, Era; Floerkemeier, Holger

No. 06/249

“Testing Real Interest Parity in Emerging Markets”

Singh, Manmohan; Banerjee, Abhisek

No. 06/250

“What Do Remittances Do? Analyzing the Private Remittance Transmission Mechanism in El Salvador”

Saca, Nolvia N.; Cáceres, Luis René

No. 06/251

“Are the French Happy with the 35-Hour Workweek? “

Estevao, Marcello M.; Sa, Filipa

No. 06/252

“Sustaining Latin America’s Resurgence: Some Historical Perspectives”

Singh, Anoop; Cerisola, Martin D.

No. 06/253

“Fiscal Consolidation in Israel: A Global Fiscal Model Perspective”

Elekdag, Selim; Epstein, Natan P.; Moreno-Badia, Marialuz

No. 06/254

“The Pricing of Credit Default Swaps During Distress”

Andritzky, Jochen R.; Singh, Manmohan

No. 06/255

“Exchange Rate Risk Measurement and Management: Issues and Approaches for Firms”

Papaioannou, Michael G.

No. 06/256

“Goal-Independent Central Banks: Why Politicians Decide to Delegate”

Crowe, Christopher W.

No. 06/257

“To Smooth or Not to Smooth: The Impact of Grants and Remittances on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Jordan”

Saadi-Sedik, Tahsin; Petri, Martin

No. 06/258

“Financial Development, the Structure of Capital Markets, and the Global Digital Divide”

Yartey, Charles Amo

No. 06/259

“Allowances for Corporate Equity in Practice”

Klemm, Alexander

No. 06/260

“Political Price Cycles in Regulated Industries: Theory and Evidence”

Paiva, Claudio; Moita, Rodrigo

No. 06/261

“Export Performance and External Competitiveness in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia”

Gutierrez, Eva

No. 06/262

“Stabilizing Inflation in Iceland”

Honjo, Keiko; Hunt, Ben

No. 06/263

“Can Good Events Lead to Bad Outcomes? Endogenous Banking Crises and Fiscal Policy Responses”

Feltenstein, Andrew; Rochon, Céliné

No. 06/264

“Banks as Coordinators of Economic Growth”

Ueda, Kenichi

No. 06/265

“What’s Driving Investment in China?”

Barnett, Steven; Brooks, Ray

No. 06/266

“Asian Equity Markets: Growth, Opportunities, and Challenges”

Purfield, Catriona; Oura, Hiroko; Kramer, Charles Frederick; Jobst, Andreas

No. 06/267

“Financial Integration in Asia: Estimating the Risk-Sharing Gains for Australia and Other Nations”

Mercereau, Benolt

No. 06/268

“Specification of a Stochastic Simulation Model for Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies”

Hostland, Doug; Karam, Philippe D.

No. 06/269

“Currency Mismatches and Corporate Default Risk: Modeling, Measurement, and Surveillance Applications”

Chan-Lau, Jorge A.; Santos, Andre

No. 06/270

“Making Fiscal Space Happen: Managing Fiscal Policy in a World of Scaled-Up Aid”

Heller, Peter S.; Katz, Menachem; Debrun, Xavier; Thomas, Theo; Koranchelian, Taline; Adenauer, Isabell

No. 06/271

“The Size Distribution of Firms, Cournot, and Optimal Taxation”

Gersovitz, Mark

No. 06/272

“Is Asia Prepared for an Aging Population?”

Heller, Peter S.

No. 06/273

“Rethinking the Governance of the International Monetary Fund”

Mirakhor, Abbas; Zaidi, Iqbal Mehdi

No. 06/274

“The IMF’s Reserves Template and Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility”

Cady, John; Gonzalez-Garcia, Jesus

No. 06/275

“The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation in Brazil”

Carvalho Filho, Irineu E.; Chamon, Marcos

No. 06/276

“Credit Flows, Fiscal Policy, and the External Deficit of Bosnia and Herzegovina”

Kanda, Daniel

No. 06/277

“Elements of Optimal Monetary Policy Committee Design”

Vandenbussche, Jerome

No. 06/278

“Implementing Inflation Targeting: Institutional Arrangements, Target Design, and Communications”

Heenan, Geoffrey; Peter, Marcel; Roger, Scott

No. 06/279

“Uganda: Managing More Effective Decentralization”

Ahmad, Ehtisham; Brosio, Giorgio; Gonzalez, Maria

No. 06/280

“Financial Versus Monetary Mercantilism: Long-Run View of the Large International Reserves Hoarding”

Aizenman, Joshua; Lee, Jaewoo

No. 06/281

“Central Bank Boards Around the World: Why Does Membership Size Differ?”

Berger, Helge; Nitsch, Volker; Lybek, Tonny

No. 06/282

“Brazil’s Long-Term Growth Performance: Trying to Explain the Puzzle”

Adrogué, Ricardo; Cerisola, Martin; Gelos, Gaston

No. 06/283

“Portfolio Credit Risk and Macroeconomic Shocks: Applications to Stress Testing Under Data-Restricted Environments”

Segoviano Basurto, Miguel A.

No. 06/284

“Solow Versus Harrod-Domar: Reexamining the Aid Costs of the First Millennium Development Goal”

Dalgaard, Carl-Johan; Erickson, Lennart

No. 06/285

“How Does the Introduction of Health Insurance Change the Equity in the Health Care Provision in Bulgaria?”

Markova, Nora

No. 06/286

“Managing and Controlling Extrabudgetary Funds”

Allen, Richard; Radev, Dimitar

No. 06/287

“Volatility and Growth in Latin America: An Episodic Approach”

Sahay, Ratna; Goyal, Rishi

No. 06/288

“Regulatory Lessons from the Crisis of Costa Rica’s Mutual Fund Industry”

Carvajal, Ana

No. 06/289

“Testing the Transparency Benefits of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from Private Sector Forecasts”

Crowe, Christopher W.

No. 06/290

“A Gravity Model of Workers’ Remittances”

Lueth, Erik; Ruiz-Arranz, Marta

No. 06/291

“Rebalancing China’s Economy: What Does Growth Theory Tell Us?”

Aziz, Jahangir

No. 06/292

“The Rise of Foreign Investment in China’s Banks: Taking Stock”

Leigh, Lamin; Podpiera, Richard

No. 06/293

“Corporate Governance Quality: Trends and Real Effects”

De Nicoló, Gianni; Laeven, Luc; Ueda, Kenichi

No. 06/294

“Effects of Globalization on Labor’s Share in National Income”

Guscina, Anastasia

No. 06/295

“Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey”

Tanner, Evan; Samake, Issouf

No. 06/296

“Economic Integration and Financial Stability: A European Perspective”

De Nicoló, Gianni; Tieman, Alexander F.

No. 06/297

“Bank Risk-Taking and Competition Revisited: New Theory and New Evidence”

Boyd, John H.; De Nicoló, Gianni; Jalal, Abu M.

IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the “Research at the IMF” website at

IMF Research Bulletin, June 2007
Author: Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo