The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.


The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.

No. 06/86

“Emigration and Wages in Source Countries: Evidence from Mexico”

Mishra, Prachi

No. 06/87

“Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Macroeconomic Impact of an Aging Population in a Highly Open Economy”

Leigh, Lamin

No. 06/88

“Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies”

Mendoza, Enrique G.

No. 06/89

“Options for Fiscal Consolidation in the United Kingdom”

Botman, Dennis P. J.; Honjo, Keiko

No. 06/90

“What Is Fuzzy About Clustering in West Africa?”

Tsangarides, Charalambos G.; Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed

No. 06/91

“Distributional Effects of Oil Price Changes on Household Expenditures: Evidence from Mali”

Kpodar, Kangni

No. 06/92

“Why Are Women Working So Much More in Canada? An International Perspective”

Tsounta, Evridiki

No. 06/93

“The Tax System in India: Could Reform Spur Growth?”

Poirson, Hélène

No. 06/94

“Interest Rate Determination in Lebanon”

Poddar, Tushar; Goswami, Mangal; Sole, Juan; Icaza, Victor Echevarria

No. 06/95

“Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging”

Tamirisa, Natalia T.; Faruqee, Hamid

No. 06/96

“Uncovered Interest Parity”

Isard, Peter

No. 06/97

“Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them”

Silver, Mick

No. 06/98

“Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries: A New Data Set”

Jeanne, Olivier; Guscina, Anastasia

No. 06/99

“Determinants of Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure”

Hammami, Mona; Ruhashyankiko, Jean-Françis; Yehoue, Etienne B.

No. 06/100

“Using the Balance Sheet Approach in Surveillance: Framework, Data Sources, and Data Availability”

Mathisen, Johan; Pellechio, Anthony J.

No. 06/101

“Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs”

Eichengreen, Barry J.; Gupta, Poonam; Mody, Ashoka

No. 06/102

“IMF Data Standards Initiatives: A Consultative Approach to Enhancing Global Data Transparency”

Kester, Anne Y.

No. 06/103

“Mind the Gap—Is Economic Growth in India Leaving Some States Behind?”

Purfield, Catriona

No. 06/104

“Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and Its Application to Financial Market Surveillance”

Chan-Lau, Jorge A.

No. 06/105

“A New Risk Indicator and Stress Testing Tool: A Multifactor Nth-to-Default CDS Basket”

Avesani, Renzo G.; Garcia Pascual, Antonio; Li, Jing

No. 06/106

“Aid Scaling Up: Do Wage Bill Ceilings Stand in the Way?”

Fedelino, Annalisa; Schwartz, Gerd; Verhoeven, Marijn

No. 06/107

“Idiosyncratic and Systemic Risk in the European Corporate Sector: A CDO Perspective”

Chan-Lau, Jorge A.; Lu, Yinqiu

No. 06/108

“Reforming Employment Protection Legislation in France”

Zhou, Jian-Ping

No. 06/109

“Donor Herding and Domestic Debt Crisis”

Khamfula, Yohane; Mlachila, Montfort; Chirwa, Ephraim W.

No. 06/110

“The Role of Interest Rates in Business Cycle Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries: The Case of Thailand”

Tchakarov, Ivan; Elekdag, Selim

No. 06/111

“A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China”

Goodfriend, Marvin; Prasad, Eswar

No. 06/112

“Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates: How Sustainable Is the ‘New Economy’?”

Hauner, David; Kumar, Manmohan S.

No. 06/113

“Growth and Productivity in Papua New Guinea”

Faal, Ebrima

No. 06/114

“The Korean Crisis: What Did We Know and When Did We Know It? What Stress Tests of the Corporate Sector Reveal”

Jones, Matthew T.; Karasulu, Meral

No. 06/115

“Excess Liquidity and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa”

Saxegaard, Magnus

No. 06/116

“Enforcement and the Stability and Growth Pact: How Fiscal Policy Did and Did Not Change Under Europe’s Fiscal Framework”

Annett, Anthony

No. 06/117

“A Superior Hybrid Cash-Flow Tax on Corporations”

Zee, Howell H.

No. 06/118

“Reflections on Quantitative Fiscal Conditionality in African PRGF-Supported Programs”

Fedelino, Annalisa; Zakharova, Daria

No. 06/119

“Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rate Regimes: Evidence from the Caribbean”

Duttagupta, Rupa; Tolosa, Guillermo

No. 06/120

“Fiscal Decentralization and Public Subnational Financial Management in Peru”

Ahmad, Ehtisham; Garcia-Escribano, Mercedes

No. 06/121

“Public Debt, Money Supply, and Inflation: A Cross-Country Study and Its Application to Jamaica”

Kwon, Goohoon; McFarlane, Lavern; Robinson, Wayne

No. 06/122

“Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts”

Canales-Kriljenko, Jorge Iván; Kisinbay, Turgut; Maino, Rodolfo; Parrado, Eric

No. 06/123

“Can Budget Institutions Counteract Political Indiscipline?”

Fabrizio, Stefania; Mody, Ashoka

No. 06/124

“Indirect Taxes on International Aviation”

Keen, Michael; Strand, Jon

No. 06/125

“Regional Convergence in Latin America”

Serra, Maria Isabel; Pazmino, Maria Fernanda; Lindow, Genevieve; Sutton, Bennett; Ramirez, Gustavo

No. 06/126

“HIV/AIDS: The Impact on Poverty and Inequality”

Salinas, Gonzalo; Haacker, Markus

No. 06/127

“The Lender of Last Resort in the European Single Financial Market”

Schinasi, Garry J.; Teixeira, Pedro Gustavo

No. 06/128

“Outcomes-Based Conditionality: Its Role and Optimal Design”

Ivanova, Anna

No. 06/129

“Immiserizing Foreign Aid: The Role of Tariffs and Nontraded Goods”

Tokarick, Stephen

No. 06/130

“Altruism and Workers’ Remittances: Evidence from Selected Countries in the Middle East and Central Asia”

Bouhga-Hagbe, Jacques

No. 06/131

“Who Saves in Ireland? The Micro Evidence”

Moreno-Badia, Marialuz

No. 06/132

“Determinants of Emigrant Deposits in Cape Verde”

Karpowicz, Izabela

No. 06/133

“Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: A Historical Look”

Catão, Luis

No. 06/134

“Review and Implementation of Credit Risk Models of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP)”

Avesani, Renzo G.; Liu, Kexue; Mirestean, Alin; Salvati, Jean

No. 06/135

“Putting the New Keynesian Model to a Test”

Peersman, Gert; Straub, Roland

No. 06/136

“Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle”

Sarno, Lucio; Valente, Giorgio; Leon, H. L.

No. 06/137

“Structural Reforms in the Euro Area: Economic Impact and Role of Synchronization Across Markets and Countries”

Everaert, Luc; Schule, Werner

No. 06/138

“Did Botswana Escape from the Resource Curse?”

Iimi, Atsushi

No. 06/139

“The Credit Risk Transfer Market and Stability Implications for U.K. Financial Institutions”

Chan-Lau, Jorge A.; Ong, Li L.

No. 06/140

“Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Botswana”

Iimi, Atsushi

No. 06/141

“Some Principles for Development of Statistics for a Gulf Cooperation Council Currency Union”

Krueger, Russell C.; Kovarich, Ettore

No. 06/142

“How Much Is Enough? Monte Carlo Simulations of an Oil Stabilization Fund for Nigeria”

Bartsch, Ulrich

No. 06/143

“Are More Competitive Banking Systems More Stable?”

Schaeck, Klaus; Cihák, Martin; Wolfe, Simon

No. 06/144

“Getting Shut Out of the International Capital Markets: It Doesn’t Take Much”

Flood, Robert P.; Marion, Nancy P.

No. 06/145

“Aid Volatility and Dutch Disease: Is There a Role for Macroeconomic Policies?”

Prati, Alessandro; Tressel, Thierry

No. 06/146

“What Transparency Can Do When Incentives Fail: An Analysis of Rent Capture”

Dabla-Norris, Era; Paul, Elisabeth

No. 06/147

“Does Fiscal Policy Matter for the Trade Account? A Panel Cointegration Study”

Funke, Katja; Nickel, Christiane

No. 06/148

“Is Systematic Default Risk Priced in Equity Returns? A Cross-Sectional Analysis Using Credit Derivatives Prices”

Chan-Lau, Jorge A.

No. 06/149

“Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities: A Survey”

Chan-Lau, Jorge A.

No. 06/150

“An Empirical Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation in Tanzania”

Mwase, Nkunde

No. 06/151

“Price Impacts of Non-Adoption of the Euro for Small European Countries”

Yelten, Sibel; Anderson, Harald

No. 06/152

“Domestic Investment and the Cost of Capital in the Caribbean”

Roache, Shaun K.

No. 06/153

“The Euro’s Challenge to the Dollar: Different Views from Economists and Evidence from COFER (Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves) and Other Data”

Lim, Ewe-Ghee

No. 06/154

“The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: How Unpleasant Is Purgatory?”

Bulíř, Aleš; Hurník, Jaromír

No. 06/155

“The Impact of Trade on Wages: What If Countries Are Not Small?”

Saito, Mika; Tokutsu, Ichiro

No. 06/156

“IMF-Supported Programs and Crisis Prevention: An Analytical Framework”

Kim, Jun Il

No. 06/157

“Inflation Targeting in Dollarized Economies”

Leiderman, Leonardo; Maino, Rodolfo; Parrado, Eric

No. 06/158

“Inflation, Inequality, and Social Conflict”

Crowe, Christopher W.

No. 06/159

“U.S. Inflation Dynamics: What Drives Them Over Different Frequencies?”

Balakrishnan, Ravi; Ouliaris, Sam

No. 06/160

“U.S. Dollar Risk Premiums and Capital Flows”

Balakrishnan, Ravi; Tulin, Volodymyr

No. 06/161

“Moving to Territoriality? Implications for the United States and the Rest of the World”

Mullins, Peter

No. 06/162

“Is Housing Wealth an ‘ATM’? The Relationship Between Household Wealth, Home Equity Withdrawal, and Saving Rates”

Klyuev, Vladimir; Mills, Paul S.

No. 06/163

“How Do Central Banks Write on Financial Stability?”

Cihák, Martin

No. 06/164

“International Policy Coordination and Simple Monetary Policy Rules”

Berger, Wolfram; Wagner, Helmut

No. 06/165

“Expenditure Composition and Distortionary Tax for Equitable Economic Growth”

Park, Hyun

No. 06/166

“Macroeconomic Volatility: The Policy Lessons from Latin America”

Singh, Anoop

IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the “Research at the IMF” website at

Call for Papers Conference on New Perspectives on Financial Globalization

The International Monetary Fund will hold a conference on “New Perspectives on Financial Globalization” at its headquarters in Washington on April 26–27, 2007.

The conference, sponsored by the IMF Research Department and Cornell University, aims at providing a forum to present recent theoretical and empirical research on the macroeconomic implications of financial globalization. In particular, the conference will address the following topics: measures of financial globalization; financial globalization and economic development; financial globalization and business cycles; and challenges of financial globalization for economic policy. (See for details.)

Interested authors should submit either a draft of their paper or a detailed abstract by December 1, 2006 to Papers presented in this conference will be considered for publication in a symposium issue of the Journal of Development Economics. The papers will go through the standard refereeing process of this journal, and hence there is no precommitment to publish them. Travel and accommodation expenses of paper presenters and discussants will be covered.

The conference organizers are Ayhan Kose, Enrique Mendoza, Eswar Prasad, and Marco Terrones. If you have any question about the conference, please feel free to contact any of the organizers by e-mail at

Visiting Scholars, September 2006–April 2007

Joshua Aizenman; University of California, Santa Cruz; 9/11/06–9/15/06

Angus Deaton; Princeton University; 10/18/06–10/20/06

Alejandro Gaytan; Banco de Mexico; 9/11/06–9/15/06

Simon Johnson; Massachusetts Institute of Technology; 9/1/06–4/30/07

Jiandong Ju; University of Oklahoma; 11/7/06–11/10/06

Panagiotis Konstantinou; University of Rome; 9/18/06–9/29/06

Dirk Muir; Bank of Canada; 10/18/06–10/25/06

Vincenzo Quadrini; University of Southern California; 9/6/06–9/7/06

Jaume Ventura; Center de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI) and Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona; 9/18/06–9/29/06

IMF Research Bulletin, December 2006
Author: Mr. Clinton R. Shiells, Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo, Mr. Vladimir Klyuev, and Raghuram Rajan