Abstract
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.
Working Paper No. 05/27
Exchange Rates in the New EU Accession Countries: What Have We Learned from the Forerunners?
Bulíř, Aleš; Šmídková, Kateřina
Working Paper No. 05/28
Inequality, Poverty, and Growth: Cross-Country Evidence
Iradian, Garbis
Working Paper No. 05/29
Eurosclerosis or Financial Collapse: Why Did Swedish Incomes Fall Behind?
Cerra, Valerie; Saxena, Sweta Chaman
Working Paper No. 05/30
Issues in Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations in China
Dabla-Norris, Era
Working Paper No. 05/31
The Rise of U.S. Antidumping Activity in Historical Perspective
Irwin, Douglas A.
Working Paper No. 05/32
A Simultaneous Equation Model for World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Markets
Krichene, Noureddine
Working Paper No. 05/33
Monetary and Exchange Rate Dynamics During Disinflation: An Empirical Analysis
Hamann, A. Javier; Arias, Andres; Zhang, Lei
Working Paper No. 05/34
Were Bid-Ask Spreads in the FX Market Excessive During the Asian Crisis?
Becker, Törbjörn I.; Sy, Amadou N. R.
Working Paper No. 05/35
Tanzania’s Growth Process and Success in Reducing Poverty
Treichel, Volker
Working Paper No. 05/36
Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa: Past Performance and the Way Forward
Yang, Yongzheng; Gupta, Sanjeev
Working Paper No. 05/37
Hedging Foreign Exchange Risk in Chile: Markets and Instruments
Chan-Lau, Jorge A.
Working Paper No. 05/38
Did the Basel Accord Cause a Credit Slowdown in Latin America?
Barajas, Adolfo; Chami, Ralph; Cosimano, Thomas F.
IMF Staff Papers
Volume 52, Number 2
Special Section:
IMF Fifth Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference
Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries
Jeffrey Frankel
From “Hindu Growth” to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition
Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian
Comments
T.N. Srinivasan
Reply to Comments
Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian
Financial Liberalization and Consumption Volatility in Developing Countries
Andrei Levchenko
IMF Program Design and Growth: Is Optimism Deliberate? Is It Defensible?
Reza Baqir, Rodney Ramcharan, and Ratna Sahay
Special Section: Central Bank Financial Independence and Policy Credibility
Introduction
Peter Stella
Recapitalizing Central Banks: A Net Worth Approach
Alain Ize
Is the Bank of Japan’s Financial Structure an Obstacle to Policy?
Thomas F. Cargill
Central Bank Financial Strength, Transparency, and Policy Credibility
Peter Stella
Working Paper No. 05/39
Exits from Heavily Managed Exchange Rate Regimes
Detragiache, Enrica; Mody, Ashoka; Okada, Eisuke
Working Paper No. 05/40
The Composition of Capital Flows: Is South Africa Different?
Arezki, Rabah; Ahmed, Faisal; Funke, Norbert
Working Paper No. 05/41
A Monetary Policy Rule for Jamaica
Sun, Yan
Working Paper No. 05/42
“Rules of Thumb” for Sovereign Debt Crises
Manasse, Paolo; Roubini, Nouriel
Working Paper No. 05/43
Rent Seeking
Chakraborty, Shankha; Dabla-Norris, Era
Working Paper No. 05/44
An Estimated Small Open Economy Model of the Financial Accelerator
Elekdag, Selim; Justiniano, Alejandro; Tchakarov, Ivan
Working Paper No. 05/45
On the Pattern of Currency Blocs in Africa
Yehoue, Etienne
Working Paper No. 05/46
Data Consistency in IMF Publications: Country Staff Reports Versus International Financial Statistics
Cady, John; Pellecchio, Anthony J.
Working Paper No. 05/47
The Disconcerting Pyramids of Poverty and Inequality of Sub-Saharan Africa
Lopes, Paulo Silva
Working Paper No. 05/48
How Big Are the Benefits of Economic Diversification? Evidence from Earthquakes
Ramcharan, Rodney
Working Paper No. 05/49
Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? A Panel Data Analysis
Aisen, Ari; Veiga, Francisco Jose
Working Paper No. 05/50
Establishing a Performance Management Framework for Government
Diamond, Jack
Working Paper No. 05/51
The Accountability of Financial Sector Supervisors: Principles and Practice
Hüpkes, Eva; Quintyn, Marc; Taylor, Michael
Working Paper No. 05/52
A Latent Factor Model with Global, Country, and Industry Shocks for International Stock Returns
Brooks, Robin; Del Negro, Marco
Working Paper No. 05/53
Why Do Some Countries Manage to Extract Growth from Foreign Aid?
Ruhashyankiko, Jean-François
Working Paper No. 05/54
How Should Subnational Government Borrowing Be Regulated? Some Cross-Country Empirical Evidence
Singh, Raju; Plekhanov, Alexander
Working Paper No. 05/55
Trade Costs and Location of Foreign Firms in China
Javorcik, Beata Smarzynska; Amiti, Mary
Working Paper No. 05/56
On Cyclicality in the Current and Financial Accounts: Evidence from Nine Industrial Countries
Clausen, Jens R; Kandil, Magda E.
Working Paper No. 05/57
Government Debt: A Key Role in Financial Intermediation
Kumhof, Michael; Tanner, Evan
Working Paper No. 05/58
The Implications of South African Economic Growth for the Rest of Africa
Arora, Vivek B.; Vamvakidis, Athanasios
Working Paper No. 05/59
Implementing the Stability and Growth Pact: Enforcement and Procedural Flexibility
Beetsma, Roel M.W.J.; Debrun, Xavier
Working Paper No. 05/60
The Impact of Terrorism on Financial Markets
Johnston, R. B.; Nedelescu, Oana Maria
Working Paper No. 05/61
A Framework for the Surveillance of Derivative Activities
Gutierrez, Eva
Working Paper No. 05/62
Are Laws Needed for Public Management Reforms: An International Comparison?
Lienert, Ian
Working Paper No. 05/63
The Real Effect of Banking Crises
Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni; Detragiache, Enrica; Rajan, Raghuram
Working Paper No. 05/64
Alternative Models of Wage Dispersion
Gaumont, Damien; Schindler, Martin; Wright, Randall
Working Paper No. 05/65
Maintaining Competitiveness Under Equilibrium Real Appreciation: The Case of Slovakia
Oomes, Nienke
Working Paper No. 05/66
How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?
Mühleisen, Martin; Danninger, Stephan; Hauner, David; Krajnyák, Kornélia; Sutton, Ben
Working Paper No. 05/67
Financial Integration, Growth, and Volatility
Epaulard, Anne; Pommeret, Aude
Working Paper No. 05/68
Who Is Still Haunted by the Specter of Communism? Explaining Relative Output Contractions Under Transition
Berengaut, Julian; Elborgh-Woytek, Katrin
Working Paper No. 05/69
Iraq: Considerations on Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations for the Constituent Assembly
Ahmad, Ehtisham; Boadway, Robin; Brosio, Giorgio; Ebel, Bob; Searle, Bob
Working Paper No. 05/70
Setting the Stage for a National Currency in the West Bank and Gaza: The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime
Kandil, Magda E.; Beidas, S.
Working Paper No. 05/71
Aging: Some Pleasant Fiscal Arithmetic
Hauner, David
Working Paper No. 05/72
Central Bank Losses and Experiences in Selected Countries
Dalton, John W; Dziobek, Claudia Helene
Working Paper No. 05/73
A Post-Reflation Monetary Framework for Japan
Kramer, Charles; Stone, Mark R.
Working Paper No. 05/74
Relating the Knowledge Production Function to Total Factor Productivity: An Endogenous Growth Puzzle
Abdih, Yasser; Joutz, Frederick
Working Paper No. 05/75
Any Link Between Legal Central Bank Independence and Inflation? Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean
Jácome, Luis Ignacio; Vázquez, Francisco
Working Paper No. 05/76
Quantitative Assessment of a Financial System— Barbados
Chase, Karen; Greenidge, Kevin; Moore, Winston; Worrell, DeLisle
Working Paper No. 05/77
Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy
Leigh, Daniel
Working Paper No. 05/78
Managing the Interest Rate Risk of Indian Banks’ Government Securities Holdings
Sy, Amadou N. R.
Working Paper No. 05/79
The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations
Prasad, Eswar; Wei, Shang-Jin
Working Paper No. 05/80
Transparency in Central Bank Financial Statement Disclosures
Sullivan, Kenneth
Working Paper No. 05/81
A Fiscal Price Tag for International Reserves
Hauner, David
Working Paper No. 05/82
Net Foreign Asset Positions and Consumption Dynamics in the International Economy
Ghironi, Fabio; Iscan, Talan B.; Rebucci, Alessandro
Working Paper No. 05/83
The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Emerging Market Bonds
Andritzky, Jochen R.; Bannister, Geoffrey J.; Tamirisa, Natalia T.
Working Paper No. 05/84
The IMF in a World of Private Capital Markets
Eichengreen, Barry J.; Kletzer, Kenneth; Mody, Ashoka
Working Paper No. 05/85
Cataclysms and Currencies: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter for Real Shocks?
Ramcharan, Rodney
Working Paper No. 05/86
Following Germany’s Lead: Using International Monetary Linkages to Identify the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Economy
di Giovanni, Julian; McCrary, Justin; von Wachter, Till
Working Paper No. 05/87
Personal Income Tax Reform: Concepts, Issues, and Comparative Country Developments
Zee, Howell H.
Working Paper No. 05/88
Insurance Companies in Emerging Markets
Singh, Manmohan; Kong, Janet
Working Paper No. 05/89
Inflation Targeting and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence for the European Union
Apergis, Nicholas; Miller, Stephen M.; Panethimitakis, Alexandros; Vamvakidis, Athanasios
Working Paper No. 05/90
Is the Middle East and North Africa Region Achieving Its Trade Potential?
Soderling, Ludvig
Working Paper No. 05/91
Characterizing the Expenditure Uncertainties of Industrial Countries in the 21st Century
Heller, Peter S.; Hauner, David
Working Paper No. 05/92
How Does Employment Protection Legislation Affect Unemployment in Tunisia? A Search Equilibrium
Approach
Koranchelian, Taline; Fanizza, Domenico
IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website: http://www.imf.org/research.
Books from the IMF Postconflict Economics in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons from the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Edited by Jean A.P. Clément
War and civil war have profoundly affected Africa’s development and caused immense suffering to its population—nowhere more than in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which was the main battlefield for a series of conflicts that involved seven neighboring countries and directly or indirectly affected an estimated 100 million people. Yet since 2001, the DRC has made significant political and economic progress that, while still fragile, provides lessons for other postconflict countries and the international community.
Postconflict Economics in Sub-Saharan Africa summarizes recent research on conflict and analyzes its causes and economic consequences in Africa, particularly the Great Lakes region. The book focuses on efforts by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the third-largest country on the continent, to cope with the many challenges along its path from conflict to stabilization and reconstruction. The contributors examine sources of growth in the DRC, issues of financial intermediation and the vicious cycle of hyperinflation and a falling currency, and such challenges as rebuilding institutions, coping with debt overhang, addressing structural bottlenecks, and demobilizing combatants and reintegrating them into society. The book also looks at the impact of the conflict on neighboring countries such as the Central African Republic.
A key lesson from the analysis is that a lasting peace process must include an economic pillar that takes into account the particular characteristics of a country or region exiting from war. Also critical is an early, proactive, and coordinated approach by country authorities, civil society, and the international community to forge consensus on a well-sequenced road map to address the economic situation, secure the timely support required, strengthen the country’s administrative capacity, and hold free and transparent elections.