The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.

Abstract

The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.

Working Paper No. 05/27

Exchange Rates in the New EU Accession Countries: What Have We Learned from the Forerunners?

Bulíř, Aleš; Šmídková, Kateřina

Working Paper No. 05/28

Inequality, Poverty, and Growth: Cross-Country Evidence

Iradian, Garbis

Working Paper No. 05/29

Eurosclerosis or Financial Collapse: Why Did Swedish Incomes Fall Behind?

Cerra, Valerie; Saxena, Sweta Chaman

Working Paper No. 05/30

Issues in Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations in China

Dabla-Norris, Era

Working Paper No. 05/31

The Rise of U.S. Antidumping Activity in Historical Perspective

Irwin, Douglas A.

Working Paper No. 05/32

A Simultaneous Equation Model for World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Markets

Krichene, Noureddine

Working Paper No. 05/33

Monetary and Exchange Rate Dynamics During Disinflation: An Empirical Analysis

Hamann, A. Javier; Arias, Andres; Zhang, Lei

Working Paper No. 05/34

Were Bid-Ask Spreads in the FX Market Excessive During the Asian Crisis?

Becker, Törbjörn I.; Sy, Amadou N. R.

Working Paper No. 05/35

Tanzania’s Growth Process and Success in Reducing Poverty

Treichel, Volker

Working Paper No. 05/36

Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa: Past Performance and the Way Forward

Yang, Yongzheng; Gupta, Sanjeev

Working Paper No. 05/37

Hedging Foreign Exchange Risk in Chile: Markets and Instruments

Chan-Lau, Jorge A.

Working Paper No. 05/38

Did the Basel Accord Cause a Credit Slowdown in Latin America?

Barajas, Adolfo; Chami, Ralph; Cosimano, Thomas F.

IMF Staff Papers

Volume 52, Number 2

Special Section:

IMF Fifth Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference

Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries

Jeffrey Frankel

From “Hindu Growth” to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition

Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian

Comments

T.N. Srinivasan

Reply to Comments

Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian

Financial Liberalization and Consumption Volatility in Developing Countries

Andrei Levchenko

IMF Program Design and Growth: Is Optimism Deliberate? Is It Defensible?

Reza Baqir, Rodney Ramcharan, and Ratna Sahay

Special Section: Central Bank Financial Independence and Policy Credibility

Introduction

Peter Stella

Recapitalizing Central Banks: A Net Worth Approach

Alain Ize

Is the Bank of Japan’s Financial Structure an Obstacle to Policy?

Thomas F. Cargill

Central Bank Financial Strength, Transparency, and Policy Credibility

Peter Stella

Working Paper No. 05/39

Exits from Heavily Managed Exchange Rate Regimes

Detragiache, Enrica; Mody, Ashoka; Okada, Eisuke

Working Paper No. 05/40

The Composition of Capital Flows: Is South Africa Different?

Arezki, Rabah; Ahmed, Faisal; Funke, Norbert

Working Paper No. 05/41

A Monetary Policy Rule for Jamaica

Sun, Yan

Working Paper No. 05/42

“Rules of Thumb” for Sovereign Debt Crises

Manasse, Paolo; Roubini, Nouriel

Working Paper No. 05/43

Rent Seeking

Chakraborty, Shankha; Dabla-Norris, Era

Working Paper No. 05/44

An Estimated Small Open Economy Model of the Financial Accelerator

Elekdag, Selim; Justiniano, Alejandro; Tchakarov, Ivan

Working Paper No. 05/45

On the Pattern of Currency Blocs in Africa

Yehoue, Etienne

Working Paper No. 05/46

Data Consistency in IMF Publications: Country Staff Reports Versus International Financial Statistics

Cady, John; Pellecchio, Anthony J.

Working Paper No. 05/47

The Disconcerting Pyramids of Poverty and Inequality of Sub-Saharan Africa

Lopes, Paulo Silva

Working Paper No. 05/48

How Big Are the Benefits of Economic Diversification? Evidence from Earthquakes

Ramcharan, Rodney

Working Paper No. 05/49

Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? A Panel Data Analysis

Aisen, Ari; Veiga, Francisco Jose

Working Paper No. 05/50

Establishing a Performance Management Framework for Government

Diamond, Jack

Working Paper No. 05/51

The Accountability of Financial Sector Supervisors: Principles and Practice

Hüpkes, Eva; Quintyn, Marc; Taylor, Michael

Working Paper No. 05/52

A Latent Factor Model with Global, Country, and Industry Shocks for International Stock Returns

Brooks, Robin; Del Negro, Marco

Working Paper No. 05/53

Why Do Some Countries Manage to Extract Growth from Foreign Aid?

Ruhashyankiko, Jean-François

Working Paper No. 05/54

How Should Subnational Government Borrowing Be Regulated? Some Cross-Country Empirical Evidence

Singh, Raju; Plekhanov, Alexander

Working Paper No. 05/55

Trade Costs and Location of Foreign Firms in China

Javorcik, Beata Smarzynska; Amiti, Mary

Working Paper No. 05/56

On Cyclicality in the Current and Financial Accounts: Evidence from Nine Industrial Countries

Clausen, Jens R; Kandil, Magda E.

Working Paper No. 05/57

Government Debt: A Key Role in Financial Intermediation

Kumhof, Michael; Tanner, Evan

Working Paper No. 05/58

The Implications of South African Economic Growth for the Rest of Africa

Arora, Vivek B.; Vamvakidis, Athanasios

Working Paper No. 05/59

Implementing the Stability and Growth Pact: Enforcement and Procedural Flexibility

Beetsma, Roel M.W.J.; Debrun, Xavier

Working Paper No. 05/60

The Impact of Terrorism on Financial Markets

Johnston, R. B.; Nedelescu, Oana Maria

Working Paper No. 05/61

A Framework for the Surveillance of Derivative Activities

Gutierrez, Eva

Working Paper No. 05/62

Are Laws Needed for Public Management Reforms: An International Comparison?

Lienert, Ian

Working Paper No. 05/63

The Real Effect of Banking Crises

Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni; Detragiache, Enrica; Rajan, Raghuram

Working Paper No. 05/64

Alternative Models of Wage Dispersion

Gaumont, Damien; Schindler, Martin; Wright, Randall

Working Paper No. 05/65

Maintaining Competitiveness Under Equilibrium Real Appreciation: The Case of Slovakia

Oomes, Nienke

Working Paper No. 05/66

How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?

Mühleisen, Martin; Danninger, Stephan; Hauner, David; Krajnyák, Kornélia; Sutton, Ben

Working Paper No. 05/67

Financial Integration, Growth, and Volatility

Epaulard, Anne; Pommeret, Aude

Working Paper No. 05/68

Who Is Still Haunted by the Specter of Communism? Explaining Relative Output Contractions Under Transition

Berengaut, Julian; Elborgh-Woytek, Katrin

Working Paper No. 05/69

Iraq: Considerations on Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations for the Constituent Assembly

Ahmad, Ehtisham; Boadway, Robin; Brosio, Giorgio; Ebel, Bob; Searle, Bob

Working Paper No. 05/70

Setting the Stage for a National Currency in the West Bank and Gaza: The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime

Kandil, Magda E.; Beidas, S.

Working Paper No. 05/71

Aging: Some Pleasant Fiscal Arithmetic

Hauner, David

Working Paper No. 05/72

Central Bank Losses and Experiences in Selected Countries

Dalton, John W; Dziobek, Claudia Helene

Working Paper No. 05/73

A Post-Reflation Monetary Framework for Japan

Kramer, Charles; Stone, Mark R.

Working Paper No. 05/74

Relating the Knowledge Production Function to Total Factor Productivity: An Endogenous Growth Puzzle

Abdih, Yasser; Joutz, Frederick

Working Paper No. 05/75

Any Link Between Legal Central Bank Independence and Inflation? Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean

Jácome, Luis Ignacio; Vázquez, Francisco

Working Paper No. 05/76

Quantitative Assessment of a Financial System— Barbados

Chase, Karen; Greenidge, Kevin; Moore, Winston; Worrell, DeLisle

Working Paper No. 05/77

Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy

Leigh, Daniel

Working Paper No. 05/78

Managing the Interest Rate Risk of Indian Banks’ Government Securities Holdings

Sy, Amadou N. R.

Working Paper No. 05/79

The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations

Prasad, Eswar; Wei, Shang-Jin

Working Paper No. 05/80

Transparency in Central Bank Financial Statement Disclosures

Sullivan, Kenneth

Working Paper No. 05/81

A Fiscal Price Tag for International Reserves

Hauner, David

Working Paper No. 05/82

Net Foreign Asset Positions and Consumption Dynamics in the International Economy

Ghironi, Fabio; Iscan, Talan B.; Rebucci, Alessandro

Working Paper No. 05/83

The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Emerging Market Bonds

Andritzky, Jochen R.; Bannister, Geoffrey J.; Tamirisa, Natalia T.

Working Paper No. 05/84

The IMF in a World of Private Capital Markets

Eichengreen, Barry J.; Kletzer, Kenneth; Mody, Ashoka

Working Paper No. 05/85

Cataclysms and Currencies: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter for Real Shocks?

Ramcharan, Rodney

Working Paper No. 05/86

Following Germany’s Lead: Using International Monetary Linkages to Identify the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Economy

di Giovanni, Julian; McCrary, Justin; von Wachter, Till

Working Paper No. 05/87

Personal Income Tax Reform: Concepts, Issues, and Comparative Country Developments

Zee, Howell H.

Working Paper No. 05/88

Insurance Companies in Emerging Markets

Singh, Manmohan; Kong, Janet

Working Paper No. 05/89

Inflation Targeting and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence for the European Union

Apergis, Nicholas; Miller, Stephen M.; Panethimitakis, Alexandros; Vamvakidis, Athanasios

Working Paper No. 05/90

Is the Middle East and North Africa Region Achieving Its Trade Potential?

Soderling, Ludvig

Working Paper No. 05/91

Characterizing the Expenditure Uncertainties of Industrial Countries in the 21st Century

Heller, Peter S.; Hauner, David

Working Paper No. 05/92

How Does Employment Protection Legislation Affect Unemployment in Tunisia? A Search Equilibrium

Approach

Koranchelian, Taline; Fanizza, Domenico

IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website: http://www.imf.org/research.

Books from the IMF Postconflict Economics in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons from the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Edited by Jean A.P. Clément

War and civil war have profoundly affected Africa’s development and caused immense suffering to its population—nowhere more than in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which was the main battlefield for a series of conflicts that involved seven neighboring countries and directly or indirectly affected an estimated 100 million people. Yet since 2001, the DRC has made significant political and economic progress that, while still fragile, provides lessons for other postconflict countries and the international community.

Postconflict Economics in Sub-Saharan Africa summarizes recent research on conflict and analyzes its causes and economic consequences in Africa, particularly the Great Lakes region. The book focuses on efforts by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the third-largest country on the continent, to cope with the many challenges along its path from conflict to stabilization and reconstruction. The contributors examine sources of growth in the DRC, issues of financial intermediation and the vicious cycle of hyperinflation and a falling currency, and such challenges as rebuilding institutions, coping with debt overhang, addressing structural bottlenecks, and demobilizing combatants and reintegrating them into society. The book also looks at the impact of the conflict on neighboring countries such as the Central African Republic.

A key lesson from the analysis is that a lasting peace process must include an economic pillar that takes into account the particular characteristics of a country or region exiting from war. Also critical is an early, proactive, and coordinated approach by country authorities, civil society, and the international community to forge consensus on a well-sequenced road map to address the economic situation, secure the timely support required, strengthen the country’s administrative capacity, and hold free and transparent elections.

IMF Research Bulletin, June 2005
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.