The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.


The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.

Working Paper No. 04/212

Are There Negative Returns to Aid? A Comment

Nkusu, Mwanza

Working Paper No. 04/213

The Greenbook and U.S. Monetary Policy

Tchaidze, Robert

Working Paper No. 04/214

The Distributional Bias of Public Education: Causes and Consequences

Dabla-Norris, Era; Gradstein, Mark

Working Paper No. 04/215

What Determines Long-Run Macroeconomic Stability? Democratic Institutions

Satyanath, Shanker; Subramanian, Arvind

Working Paper No. 04/216

Exchange Rate Policy and the Management of Official and Private Capital Flows in Africa

Buffie, Edward; Adam, Christopher; O’Connell, Stephen A.; Pattillo, Catherine A.

Working Paper No. 04/217

Social Spending, Human Capital, and Growth in Developing Countries: Implications for Achieving the MDGs

Baldacci, Emanuele; Clements, Benedict J.; Gupta, Sanjeev; Cui, Qiang

Working Paper No. 04/218

Capital Inflows, Sterilization, and Commercial Bank Speculation: The Case of the Czech Republic in the Mid-1990s

Christensen, Jakob

Working Paper No. 04/219

A Model of the IMF as a Coinsurance Arrangement

Chami, Ralph; Sharma, Sunil; Shim, Ilhyock

Working Paper No. 04/220

On the Design and Effectiveness of Targeted Expenditure Programs

Ahmad, Ehtisham; Martinez, Leonardo

Working Paper No. 04/221

Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?

Gelos, Gaston; Sahay, Ratna; Sandleris, Guido

Working Paper No. 04/222

Currency Bloc Formation as a Dynamic Process Based on Trade Network Externalities

Yehoue, Etienne

Working Paper No. 04/223

Inflation and Monetary Pass-Through in Guinea

Blavy, Rodolphe

Working Paper No. 04/224

Macroeconomic Implications of Natural Disasters in the Caribbean

Rasmussen, Tobias N.

Working Paper No. 04/225

Trade Finance and Trade Flows: Panel Data Evidence from 10 Crises

Ronci, Marcio

Working Paper No. 04/226

Central Bank Governance: A Survey of Boards and Management

Lybek, Tonny; Morris, JoAnne

Working Paper No. 04/227

COMESA and SADC: Prospects and Challenges for Regional Trade Integration

Khandelwal, Padamja

Working Paper No. 04/228

A Common Currency for Belarus and Russia?

Gulde, Anne Marie; Jafarov, Etibar; Prokopenko, Vassili

Working Paper No. 04/229

Exchange Rate, Money, and Wages: What is Driving Prices in Armenia?

Grigorian, David A.; Khachatryan, Armine; Sargsyan, Grigor

Working Paper No. 04/230

Can The Private Annuity Market Provide Secure Retirement Income?

Mackenzie, G. A.; Schrager, Allison

Working Paper No. 04/231

Institutional Quality and International Trade

Levchenko, Andrei A.

Working Paper No. 04/232

Macroeconomic Implications of the Transition to Inflation Targeting and Capital Account Liberalization in Romania

Berkmen, Pelin; Gueorguiev, Nikolay

Working Paper No. 04/233

The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Statistics Guidelines and Accounting Standards

Laliberte, Lucie

Working Paper No. 04/234

Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?

Gali, lordi; Rabanal, Pau

Working Paper No. 04/235

Managing Confidence in Emerging Market Bank Runs

Kim, Se-jik; Mody, Ashoka

Working Paper No. 04/236

Institutions and the External Capital Structure of Countries

Faria, Andre; Mauro, Paolo

Working Paper No. 04/237

Integrating a Unified Revenue Administration for Tax and Social Contribution Collections: Experiences of Central and Eastern European Countries

Barrand, Peter; Ross, Stanford; Harrison, Graham

Working Paper No. 04/238

Local Financial Development and the Aid-Growth Relationship

Nkusu, Mwanza; Sayek, Selin

Working Paper No. 05/01

Remoteness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility

Bravo-Ortega, Claudio; di Giovanni, Julian

Working Paper No. 05/2

The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience from Low-Income Countries

Danninger, Stephan; Cangiano, M.; Kyobe, Annette

Working Paper No. 05/3

Financial Globalization and Exchange Rates

Lane, Philip R.; Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria

Working Paper No. 05/4

The International Effects of Government Spending Composition

Ganelli, Giovanni

Working Paper No. 05/5

Trade Costs and Real Exchange Rate Volatility: The Role of Ricardian Comparative Advantage

Bravo-Ortega, Claudio; di Giovanni, julian

Working Paper No. 05/6

Stock Market Liquidity and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Japan

Choi, Woon Gyu; Cook, David

Working Paper No. 05/7

Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending: Does the Level of Real Interest Rates Matter?

Choi, Woon Gyu; Devereux, Michael B.

Working Paper No. 05/8

Implicit Transfers in IMF Lending, 1973-2003

Zettelmeyer, Jeromin; joshi, Priyadarshani

Working Paper No. 05/9

Asset Mispricing Due to Cognitive Dissonance

Drees, Burkhard; Eckwert, Bernhard

Working Paper No. 05/10

State-Owned Banks, Stability, Privatization, and Growth: Practical Policy Decisions in a World Without Empirical Proof

Andrews, Michael

Working Paper No. 05/11

Growth, Expansion of Markets, and Income Elasticities in World Trade

Wu, Yi

Working Paper No. 05/12

Trade and Growth in the Presence of Distortions

Cassing, James; Tokarick, Stephen

Working Paper No. 05/13

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies: A Comparative Empirical Treatment

Fontaine, Thomson

Working Paper No. 05/14

Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets

Danninger, Stephan

Working Paper No. 05/15

Capitalizing Central Banks: A Net Worth Approach

Ize, Alain

Working Paper No. 05/16

The Russian Flat Tax Reform

Ivanova, Anna; Keen, Michael; Klemm, Alexander

Working Paper No. 05/17

Competition and Efficiency in Banking: Behavioral Evidence from Ghana

Buchs, Thierry D.; Mathisen, Johan

Working Paper No. 05/18

Growth Empirics under Model Uncertainty: Is Africa Different?

Tsangarides, Charalambos G.

Working Paper No. 05/19

How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?

Kose, M, Ayhan; Prasad, Eswar; Terrones, Marco

Working Paper No. 05/20

Trade Liberalization and Wage Inequality: Evidence from India

Mishra, Prachi; Kumar, Utsav

Working Paper No. 05/21

Assessing Protectionism and Subsidies in Agriculture: A Gravity Approach

Paiva, Claudio

Working Paper No. 05/22

Increasing Public Sector Revenue in the Philippines: Equity and Efficiency Considerations

Fletcher, Kevin

Working Paper No. 05/23

A (New) Country Insurance Facility

Cordella, Tito; Yeyati, Eduardo L.

Working Paper No. 05/24

Revenue Forecasting—How is it done? Results from a Survey of Low-Income Countries

Kyobe, Annette; Danninger, Stephan

Working Paper No. 05/25

Monetary Policy and Corporate Behaviour in India

Prasad, A.; Ghosh, Saibal; Office of Executive Directors

Working Paper No. 05/26

Stabilization, Debt, and Fiscal Policy in the Caribbean

Sahay, Ratna

IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website:

Call for Papers

IMF Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference

The International Monetary Fund will hold the Jacques Polak Sixth Annual Research Conference at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., on November 3—4, 2005. The conference provides a forum for discussing innovative research in economics, undertaken both by IMF staff and outside economists, and to facilitate the exchange of views among researchers and policymakers.

The theme of this year’s conference is Reforms. Over the past two decades, many countries have reformed their economics to facilitate a greater role for market forces and to make the institutional environment more hospitable. The conference goal is to present theoretical and empirical research on how consensus develops that enables implementation of reforms, as well as on the consequences of such reforms. Possible topics include, but are not restricted to, the following:

  • The political economy of institutional reform

  • Financial and monetary system reforms

  • Trade and exchange rate regime reforms

  • Fiscal policy and reforms

  • Country experiences with reform

  • Microeconomic studies of reform with macroeconomic implications

  • The IMF and reforms

  • Foreign aid and reforms.

Interested contributors should submit a draft paper or a two-page proposal to the Program Committee that includes the title of the paper, the author(s)’ affiliation and contact information, the main questions to be examined, the most relevant literature, the intended contribution of the paper, and the possible data sets and methodology to be employed. Authors should also provide a copy of their curriculum vitae. All presenters will be reimbursed for travel expenses (economy class) and accommodation.

Please submit your proposals (in a Word or PDF file) by April 4, 2005 (e-mail to Please use the contact author’s name as the name of the file. The Program Committee will evaluate all proposals in terms of originality, analytical rigor, and policy relevance and will communicate its decision by late April. A 12-page work-in-progress draft will be required by June 30, 2005 to assure adequate progress toward completion. Further information on the conference program will be posted on the IMF website (