The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.


The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.

Working Paper No. 04/142

Choosing the Correct Currency Anchor for a Small Economy: The Case of Nepal

Yelten, Sibel

Working Paper No. 04/143

Fiscal Adjustment in EU Countries: A Balance Sheet Approach

Milesi-Ferretti, Gian M.; Moriyama, Kenji

Working Paper No. 04/144

Regional Economic Disparities in Australia

Ramakrishnan, Uma; Cerisola, Martin D.

Working Paper No. 04/145

A Re-examination of Korea’s Trade Flows: What Has Changed and What Explains These Changes?

Cheng, Kevin C.

Working Paper No. 04/146

Ghostbusting: Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?

Billmeier, Andreas

Working Paper No. 04/147

Structural Factors Affecting Exchange Rate Volatility: A Cross-Section Study

Canales Kriljenko, Jorge I.; Habermeier, Karl F.

Working Paper No. 04/148

Country Insurance

Cordella, Tito; Levy Yeyati, Eduardo

Working Paper No. 04/149

Bank Consolidation and Performance: The Argentine Experience

Basu, Ritu; Druck, Pablo; Marston, David; Susmel, Raul

Working Paper No. 04/150

Identifying Threshold Effects in Credit Risk Stress Testing

Gasha, Giancarlo; Morales, Armando

Working Paper No. 04/151

Analysis of Recent Growth in Low-Income CIS Countries

Loukoianova, Elena; Unigovskaya, Anna

Working Paper No. 04/152

What Are the Potential Economic Benefits of Enlarging the Gulf Cooperation Council?

Chami, Saade; Elekdag, Selim; Tchakarov, Ivan

Working Paper No. 04/153

Quantitative Assessment of the Financial Sector: An Integrated Approach

Worrell, DeLisle

Working Paper No. 04/154

Measuring the Trade Effects of EMU

Faruqee, Hamid

Working Paper No. 04/155

The IMF and Russia in the 1990s

Odling-Smee, John

Working Paper No. 04/156

Fiscal Policy and Debt Sustainability: Cardoso’s Brazil, 1995–2002

Giambiagi, Fabio; Ronci, Marcio

Working Paper No. 04/157

Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies?

Baldacci, Emanuele; Clements, Benedict J.; Gupta, Sanjeev; Mulas-Granados, Carlos

Working Paper No. 04/158

Dimensions of Land Inequality and Economic Development

Erickson, Lennart; Vollrath, Dietrich

Working Paper No. 04/159

Russia and the WTO: The “Gravity” of Outsider Status

Lissovolik, Bogdan; Lissovolik, Yaroslav

Working Paper No. 04/160

External Debt Sustainability in HIPC Completion Point Countries

Sun, Yan

Working Paper No. 04/161

Grants Versus Loans

Cordella, Tito; Ulku, Hulya

Working Paper No. 04/162

Credible Commitment to Optimal Escape from a Liquidity Trap: The Role of the Balance Sheet of an Independent Central Bank

Jeanne, Olivier D.; Svensson, Lars E.O.

Working Paper No. 04/163

Can Public Discussion Enhance Program Ownership?

Isard, Peter; Drazen, Allan

Working Paper No. 04/164

Monetary Policy Rules and the U.S. Business Cycle: Evidence and Implications

Rabanal, Pau

Working Paper No. 04/165

Will You Buy My Peg? The Credibility of a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime as a Determinant of Bilateral Trade

Fritz-Krockow, Bernhard; Jurzyk, Emilia M.

Working Paper No. 04/166

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Colombia: Progress and Challenges

Clavijo, Sergio

Working Paper No. 04/167

Foreign Currency Deposits and International Liquidity Shortages in Pakistan

Mirakhor, Abbas; Zaidi, Iqbal

Working Paper No. 04/168

The Challenge of Fiscal Adjustment in a Democracy: The Case of India

Purfield, Catriona M.; Hausmann, Ricardo

Working Paper No. 04/169

The Impact of Preference Erosion on Middle-Income Developing Countries

Alexandraki, Katerina; Lankes, Hans P.

Working Paper No. 04/170

Financing Uganda’s Poverty Reduction Strategy: Is Aid Causing More Pain Than Gain?

Nkusu, Mwanza

Working Paper No. 04/171

Understanding India’s Services Revolution

Gordon, James P.; Gupta, Poonam

Working Paper No. 04/172

The Role of KAMCO in Resolving Nonperforming Loans in the Republic of Korea

He, Dong

Working Paper No. 04/173

Domestic Competition Spurs Exports: The Indian Example

Poddar, Tushar

Working Paper No. 04/174

Microfinance in Africa: Experience and Lessons from Selected African Countries

Basu, Anupam; Blavy, Rodolphe; Yulek, Murat

Working Paper No. 04/175

Insurance Value of International Reserves: An Option Pricing Approach

Lee, Jaewoo

Working Paper No. 04/176

Sources of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Akitoby, Bernardin A.; Ghura, Dhaneshwar; Tahari, Amor; Brou Aka, Emmanuel

Working Paper No. 04/177

What Is an Emerging Market?

Mody, Ashoka

Working Paper No. 04/178

Trade Liberalization, Exchange Rate Changes, and Tax Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa

Agbeyegbe, Terence; Stotsky, Janet G.; WoldeMariam, Asegedech

Working Paper No. 04/179

Quota Brokers

Imai, Susumu; Krishna, Kala; Mukhopadhyay, Abhiroop; Tan, Ling H.

Working Paper No. 04/180

An Institutional Framework for Comparing Emerging Market Currency Boards

Camilleri Gilson, Marie-Therese

Working Paper No. 04/181

Pension Funds and Emerging Markets

Chan Lau, Jorge A.

Working Paper No. 04/182

What Do We Know About Tariff Incidence?

Tokarick, Stephen P.

Working Paper No. 04/183

Intercreditor Distribution in Sovereign Debt Restructuring

Mandeng, Ousmene-Jacques

Working Paper No. 04/184

Institutions, Program Implementation, and Macroeconomic Performance

Nsouli, Saleh M.; Atoian, Rouben; Mourmouras, Alexandros T.

Working Paper No. 04/185

R&D, Innovation, and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis

Ulku, Hulya

Working Paper No. 04/186

Fear of Service Outsourcing: Is It Justified?

Amiti, Mary; Wei, Shang-Jin

Working Paper No. 04/187

Defining Financial Stability

Schinasi, Garry J.

Working Paper No. 04/188

Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present?

Choudhri, Ehsan U.; Khan, Mohsin S.

Working Paper No. 04/189

Can Higher Reserves Help Reduce Exchange Rate Volatility?

Hviding, Ketil; Nowak, Michael; Ricci, Luca A.

Working Paper No. 04/190

The Internal job Market of the IMF’s Economist Program

Barron, Greg; Vardy, Felix

Working Paper No. 04/191

A New Taxonomy of Monetary Regimes

Stone, Mark R.; Bhundia, Ashok J.

Working Paper No. 04/192

The Mussa Theorem (and Other Results on IMF-Induced Moral Hazard)

Jeanne, Olivier D.; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin

Working Paper No. 04/193

Work Absence in Europe

Bonato, Leo; Lusinyan, Lusine

Working Paper No. 04/194

A Theory of Workers’ Remittances with an Application to Morocco

Bouhga-Hagbe, Jacques

Working Paper No. 04/195

Deconstructing the Art of Central Banking

Bayoumi, Tamim A.; Sgherri, Silvia

Working Paper No. 04/196

Deriving Market Expectations for the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate from Option Prices

Krichene, Noureddine

Working Paper No. 04/197

Keeping Capital Flowing: The Role of the IMF

Bordo, Michael D.; Mody, Ashoka; Oomes, Nienke

Working Paper No. 04/198

Growth and Convergence in WAEMU Countries

Wane, Abdoul Aziz

Working Paper No. 04/199

Managerial Incentives and Financial Contagion

Chakravorti, Sujit; Lall, Subir

Working Paper No. 04/200

Why Is Productivity Growth in the Euro Area So Sluggish?

Estevao, Marcello

Working Paper No. 04/201

Financial Sector Development in the Middle East and North Africa

Creane, Susan B.; Goyal, Rishi; Mobarak, A. Mushfiq; Sab, Randa E.

Working Paper No. 04/202

The Cyclical and Long-Term Behavior of Government Expenditures in Developing Countries

Akitoby, Bernardin A.; Clements, Benedict J.; Gupta, Sanjeev; Inchauste, Gabriela

Working Paper No. 04/203

Can the IMF’s Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?

Zalduendo, Juan; Batista, Catia

Working Paper No. 04/204

Does Compliance with Basel Core Principles Bring Any Measurable Benefits?

Podpiera, Richard

Working Paper No. 04/205

Wage Compression, Employment Restrictions and Unemployment: The Case of Mauritius

Porter, Nathan

Working Paper No. 04/206

Foreign Direct Investment and Regional Trade Agreements: The Market Size Effect Revisited

Jaumotte, Florence

Working Paper No. 04/207

Evolution of the Relative Price of Goods and Services in a Neoclassical Model of Capital Accumulation

Klyuev, Vladimir

Working Paper No. 04/208

Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets: A Bayesian Approach with an Application to Turkey

Rossi, Marco; Rebucci, Alessandro

Working Paper No. 04/209

In the Pipeline: Georgia’s Oil and Gas Transit Revenues

Billmeier, Andreas; Dunn, Jonathan C; van Selm, Bert

Working Paper No. 04/210

Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Bond Spreads in Developing Countries

Jahjah, Samir; Yue, Vivian Z.

Working Paper No. 04/211

Interest Rate Pass-Through in Romania and Other Central European Economies

Tieman, Alexander F.

IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website: