Abstract
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.
Working Paper No. 04/48
Nonresident Deposits in India: In Search of Return?
Gordon, James P.; Gupta, Poonam
Working Paper No.04/49
Aid and the Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries: Informed Diagnoses for Prudent Prognoses
Nkusu, Mwanza
Working Paper No. 04/50
The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics: A Time Series Approach
Mercereau, Benoit
Working Paper No. 04/51
Missing Link: Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox
Catao, Luis A.; Kapur, Sandeep
Working Paper No. 04/52
Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?
Berg, Andrew; Borensztein, Eduardo R.;
Pattillo, Catherine A.
Working Paper No. 04/53
Sovereign Debt Defaults and Financing Needs
Kruger, Mark; Messmacher, Miguel
Working Paper No. 04/54
Boom-Bust Phases in Asset Prices and Fiscal Policy Behavior
Jaeger, Albert; Schuknecht, Ludger
Working Paper No. 04/55
Banking in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Went Wrong?
Daumont, Roland E.; Le Gall, Françoise; Leroux, François
Working Paper No. 04/56
Growth in the Middle East and North Africa
Hakura, Dalia S.
Working Paper No. 04/57
Measuring a Roller Coaster: Evidence on the Finnish Output Gap
Billmeier, Andreas
Working Paper No. 04/58
Does SDDS Subscription Reduce Borrowing Costs for Emerging Market Economies
Cady, John
Working Paper No. 04/59
How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence
Kose, M. Ayhan; Meredith, Guy M.; Towe, Christopher M.
Working Paper No. 04/60
Economic Integration, Sectoral Diversification, and Exchange Rate Policy in a Developing Economy
Srour, Gabriel
Working Paper No. 04/61
Derivative Market Competition: OTC Versus Organized Derivative Exchanges
Nystedt, Jens
Working Paper No. 04/62
Fiscal Indulgence in Central Europe: Loss of the External Anchor
Berger, Helge; Kopits, George F.; Szekely, lstvan P.
Working Paper No. 04/63
Balance Sheets, Exchange Rate Policy, and Welfare
Elekdag, Selim; Tchakarov, Ivan
Working Paper No. 04/64
Overview of the Indian Corporate Sector: 1989–2002
Topalova, Petia
Working Paper No. 04/65
The Effects of Exchange Rate Change on the Trade Balance in Croatia
Stucka, Tihomir
Working Paper No. 04/66
Prudential Responses to De Facto Dollarization
Ize, Alain; Powell, Andrew
Working Paper No. 04/67
New Estimates of Government Net Capital Stocks for 22 OECD Countries, 1960–2001
Kamps, Christophe
Working Paper No. 04/68
A Bayesian Approach to Model Uncertainty
Tsangarides, Charalambos
Working Paper No. 04/69
Estimation of Economic Growth in France Using Business Survey Data
Kabundi, Alain
Working Paper No. 04/70
Credit Rationing in Emerging Economies’ Access to Global Capital Markets
Zoli, Edda
Working Paper No. 04/71
Emerging Strains in GCC Labor Markets
Fasano, Ugo; Goyal, Rishi
Working Paper No. 04/72
Are Uniform Tariff’s Optimal?
Amiti, Mary
Working Paper No. 04/73
Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?
Cheung, Yin-Wong; Chinn, Menzie; Garcia Pascual, Antonio
Working Paper No. 04/74
The Elusive Gains from International Financial Integration
Gourinchas, Pierre-Oliver; Jeanne, Olivier D.
Working Paper No. 04/75
The IMF and the Force of History: Ten Events and Ten Ideas That Have Shaped the Institution
Boughton, James M.
Working Paper No. 04/76
Can China Grow Faster? A Diagnosis on the Fragmentation of the Domestic Capital Market
Boyreau-Debray, Genevieve; Wei, Shan-Jin
Working Paper No. 04/77
From “Hindu Growth” to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition
Rodrik, Dani; Subramanian, Arvind
Working Paper No. 04/78
Empirical Modeling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies
Dungey, Mardi; Fry, Renee; González-Hermosillo, Brenda; Martin, Vance
Working Paper No. 04/79
Economic Geography and Wages: The Case of Indonesia
Amiti, Mary; Cameron, Lisa
Working Paper No. 04/80
Political Instability and Growth: The Central African Republic
Ghura, Dhaneshwar; Mercereau, Benoit
Working Paper No. 04/81
The WTO and the Poorest Countries: The Stark Reality
Mattoo, Aaditya; Subramanian, Arvind
Working Paper No. 04/82
Foreign Bank Supervision and Challenges to Emerging Market Supervisors
Song, Inwon
Working Paper No. 04/83
Angola’s Fragile Stabilization
Giancarlo Gasha, Jose; Pastor, Gonzalo C.
Working Paper No. 04/84
Does Financial Globalization Induce Better
Macroeconomic Policies?
Tytell, Irina; Wei, Shang-fin
Working Paper No. 04/85
Interest Rate Defenses of Currency Pegs
Sole, Juan
Working Paper No. 04/86
Japan’s Distressed Debt Market
Ohashi, Kazunari; Singh, Manmohan
Working Paper No. 04/87
Revisions Policy for Official Statistics: A Matter of Governance
Carson, Carol S.; Khawaja, Sarmad; Morrison, Thomas K.
Working Paper No. 04/88
Productivity Shocks, Learning, and Open Economy Dynamics
Miniane, Jacques
Working Paper No. 04/89
Does Regulatory Governance Matter for Financial System Stability? An Empirical Analysis
Das, Udaibir S.; Quintyn, Marc G.; Chenard, Kina
Working Paper No. 04/90
Forecasting Thailand’s Core Inflation
Sun, Tao
Working Paper No. 04/91
Capital Income Taxation and Economic Growth in Open Economies
Palomba, Geremia
Working Paper No. 04/92
A Cointegration Model for Search Equilibrium Wage Formation
Broersma, Lourens; den Butter, Frank A.G.; Kock, Udo
Working Paper No. 04/93
Debt Accumulation in the CIS-7 Countries: Bad Luck, Bad Policies, or Bad Advice
Helbling, Thomas F.; Mody, Ashoka; Sahay, Ratna
Working Paper No. 04/94
Money-Based Versus Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: Is There Space for Political Opportunism?
Aisen, Ari
Working Paper No. 04/95
Economic Performance over the Conflict Cycle
Staines, Nicholas
Working Paper No. 04/96
Robust Versus Optimal Rules in monetary Policy: A Note
Demertzis, Maria; Tieman, Alexander F.
Working Paper No. 04/97
Achieving and Maintaining Price Stability in Nigeria
Batini, Nicoletta
Working Paper No. 04/98
Toward More Effective Redistribution: Reform Options for Intergovernmental Transfers in China
Ahmad, Ehtisham; Singh, Raju J.; Fortuna, Mario
Working Paper No. 04/99
Can Debt Crises Be Self-Fulfilling?
Chamon, Marcos
Working Paper No. 04/100
Conditional Lending Under Altruism
Mourmouras, Alexandros T.; Rangazas, Peter
Working Paper No. 04/101
Toward a Framework for Safeguarding Financial Stability
Houben, Aerdt; Kakes, Jan; Schinasi, Garry J.
Working Paper No. 04/102
Public Spending Management and Macroeconomic Interdependence
Ganelli, Giovanni
Working Paper No. 04/103
Trade and Industrial Location with Heterogeneous Labor
Amiti, Mary; Pissarides, Christopher
Working Paper No. 04/104
To Buy or Not to Buy? Uncertainty, Irreversibility, and Heterogeneous Investment Dynamics in Italian Company Data
Bond, Stephen; Lombardi, Domenico
Working Paper No. 04/105
Financial Crisis, Economic Recovery and Banking Development in Russia, Ukraine, and Other FSU Countries
Huang, Haizhou; Marin, Dalia; Xu, Chenggang
Working Paper No. 04/106
Challenging the Empirical Evidence from Present Value Models of the Current Account
Mercereau, Benoit; Miniane, Jacques
Working Paper No. 04/107
Multinational Affiliates and Local Financial Markets
Lehmann, Alexander C.; Sayek, Selin; Goo Kang, Hyoung
Working Paper No. 04/108
The End of Textiles Quotas: A Case Study of the Impact on Bangladesh
Mlachila, Montfort P.; Yang, Yongzheng
Working Paper No. 04/109
Performance of Western Hemisphere Trading Blocs: A Cost-Corrected Gravity Approach
Croce, Enzo; Juan-Ramon, V.H.; Zhu, Feng
Working Paper No. 04/110
Financial Integration: A New Methodology and an Illustration
Flood, Robert P.; Rose, Andrew K.
Working Paper No. 04/111
Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?
Celasun, Oya; Gelos, R. Gaston; Prati, Alessandro
Working Paper No. 04/112
The Quality Effect: Does Financial Liberalization Improve the Allocation of Capital?
Abiad, Abdul; Oomes, Nienke; Ueda, Kenichi
Working Paper No. 04/113
An Approach to Long-Term Fiscal Policy Analysis
Dunaway, Steven V.; N’Diaye, Papa
Working Paper No. 04/114
Sources of Growth in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A Cointegration Approach
Akitoby, Bernardin A.; Cinyabuguma, Matthias
Working Paper No. 04/115
Ambiguity, Transparency, and Institutional Strength
Erbas, S. Nuri
Working Paper No. 04/116
Assessing the Assessment: A Critical Look at the June 2003 Assessment of the United Kingdom’s Five Tests for Euro Entry
Cottarelli, Carlo; Escolano, Julio
Working Paper No. 04/117
On Fixed and Variable Fiscal Surplus Rules
Basci, Erdem; Ekinci, M. Fatih; Yulek, Murat
Working Paper No. 04/118
Why India Can Grow at 7 Percent a Year or More: Projections and Reflections
Rodrik, Dani; Subramanian, Arvind
Working Paper No. 04/119
A New Approach to Taxing Financial Intermediation Services Under a Value Added Tax
Zee, Howell H.
Working Paper No. 04/120
Private Finance and Public Policy
Schinasi, Garry J.
Working Paper No. 04/121
The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis: Estimating Default Risk and Economy-wide Risk Transfer
Gapen, Michael T; Gray, Dale F.; Lim, Cheng Hoon; Xiao, Yingbin
Working Paper No. 04/122
Monetary Policy, Monetary Areas, and Financial Development with Electronic Money
Arnone, Marco; Bandiera, Luca
Working Paper No. 04/123
The Empirics of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: The Cases of Mexico and Turkey
Guimaraes, Roberto; Karacadag, Cem
Working Paper No. 04/124
Corporate Financial Structure and Financial Stability
Davis, E. Philip; Stone, Mark R.
Working Paper No. 04/125
Taxation Reforms and Changes in Revenue Assignments in China
Ahmad, Ehtisham; Singh, Raju J.; Lockwood, Benjamin
Working Paper No. 04/126
From Fixed to Float: Operational Aspects of Moving Towards Exchange Rate Flexibility
Duttagupta, Rupa; Fernandez, Gilda; Karacadag, Cem
Working Paper No. 04/127
Stress Testing Financial Systems: What to Do When the Governor Calls
Jones, Matthew T.; Hilbers, Paul L.; Slack, Graham L.
Working Paper No. 04/128
Parity Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Fast, Slow or Not at All?
Cashin, Paul A.; McDermott, C. John
Working Paper No. 04/129
Foreign Banks in Emerging Market Crises: Evidence from Malaysia
Detragiache, Enrica; Gupta, Poonam
Working Paper No. 04/130
Zimbabwe: A Quest for a Nominal Anchor
Kovanen, Arto
Working Paper No. 04/131
When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion
Broner, Fernando; Gelos, R. Gaston; Reinhart, Carmen
Working Paper No. 04/132
Choosing a Budget Management System:
The Case of Rwanda
Lienert, Ian C.
Working Paper No. 04/133
The Role of Mature Market Mutual Funds in Emerging Markets: Myth or Mayhem?
Ong, Li L.; Sy, Amadou N.
Working Paper No. 04/134
International Investment Patterns
Lane, Philip; Milesi-Ferretti, Gian M.
Working Paper No. 04/135
Once Again, Is Openness Good for Growth?
Lee, Ha Y.; Ricci, Luca A.; Rigobon, Roberto
Working Paper No. 04/136
Caribbean Business Cycles
Cashin, Paul A.
Working Paper No. 04/137
Debt Maturity and the International Financial Architecture
Jeanne, Olivier D.
Working Paper No. 04/138
Economic Integration, Business Cycle, and Productivity in North America
Cardarelli, Roberto; Kose, M. Ayhan
Working Paper No. 04/139
Risk Instability and the Pattern of Foreign Direct Investment in the Middle East and North Africa Region
Chan, Kitty; Gemayel, Edward
Working Paper No. 04/140
Explaining Efficiency Differences Among Large German and Austrian Banks
Hauner, David
Working Paper No. 04/141
Are Developing Countries Better Off Spending Their Oil Wealth Upfront?
Takizawa, Hajime; Gardner, Edward H.; Ueda, Kenichi
IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website: http://www.imf.org/research.
External Publications by IMF Staff, 2004
Journal Articles
Agenor, Pierre-Richard; Aizenman, Joshua; Hoffmaister, Alexander
The Credit Crunch in East Asia: What Can Bank Excess Liquidity Assets Tell Us?
Journal of International Money and Finance
Arora, Vivek; Vamvakidis, Athanasios
The Impact of US Economic Growth on the Rest of the World: How Much Does It Matter?
Journal of Economic Integration
Baldacci, Emanuele; Hillman, Arye L.; Kojo, Naoko C.
Growth, Governance, and Fiscal Policy Transmission Channels in Low-Income Countries
European Journal of Political Economy
Bartolini, Leonardo; Bertola, Giuseppe; Prati, Alessandro
The Overnight Interbank Market: Evidence from the G-7 and the Euro Zone
Journal of Banking and Finance
Borensztein, Eduardo; Gelos, Gaston R.
Leaders and Followers: Emerging Market Fund Behavior During Tranquil and Turbulent Times
Emerging Markets Review
Borensztein, Eduardo; Mauro, Paolo
The Case for GDP-Indexed Bonds
Economic Policy
Bulír, Aleš
Can Price Incentive to Smuggle Explain the Contraction of Cocoa Supply in Ghana?
Journal of African Economics
Bulír, Aleš; Brixiova, Z.
Growth Slowdown Under Central Planning: A Model of Poor Incentives
Economic Systems
Celasun, Oya; Gelos, Gaston R.; Prati, Alessandro
Obstacles to Disinflation: What Is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?
Economic Policy
Chan-Lau, Jorge
Corporate Restructuring in Japan
Capco Institute Journal of Financial Transformation
Chan-Lau, Jorge; Ivaschenko, Iryna
Asian Flu or Wall Street Virus? Price and Volatility Spillovers of the Tech and Non-Tech Sectors in the united States and Asia
Journal of Multinational Financial Management
Chinn, Menzie; Prasad, Eswar S.
Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration
Journal of International Economics
Choi, Woon Gyu; Cook, David
Liability Dollarization and the Bank Balance Sheet Channel
Journal of International Economics (forthcoming)
Choi, Woon Gyu; Oh, Seonghwan
The Money Demand Function with Output Uncertainty, Monetary Uncertainty, and Financial Innovations
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking
Cubeddu, Luis
Families as Shocks
European Economic Association
Debrun, Xavier; Masson, Paul; Pattillo, Catherine
West African Currency Unions: Rationale and Sustainability
CESifo Economic Studies
Dippelsman, Robert J.; Maehle, Nils Ø.
Treatment of Mobile Phone Licenses in the National Accounts
Review of Income and Wealth
Estevao, Marcello
Do Firms Share Their Success with Workers? The Response of Wages to Product Market Conditions
Economica
Ganelli, Giovanni
Useful Government Spending, Direct Crowding-Out and Fiscal Policy Interdependence
Journal of International Money and Finance
Gelos, Gaston R.
Foreign Currency Debt in Emerging Markets: Firm-Level Evidence from Mexico
Economics Letters
Gelos, Gaston; Roldos, Jorge
Consolidation and Market Structure in Emerging Market Banking Systems
Emerging Markets Review
Gupta, Sanjeev; Clements, Benedict J.; Baldacci, Emanuele; Mulas-Granados, Carlos
The Persistence of Fiscal Adjustments in Developing Countries
Applied Economics Letters
Gupta, Sanjeev; Clements, Benedict J.; Baldacci, Emanuele; Mulas-Granados, Carlos
Fiscal Policy, Expenditure Composition, and Growth in
Low-Income Countries
Journal of International Money and Finance
Gupta, Sanjeev; Clements, Benedict J.; Bhattacharya, Rina; Chakravarti, Shamit
Fiscal Consequences of Armed Conflict and Terrorism in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
European Journal of Political Economy
Gupta, Sanjeev; Clements, Benedict J.; Tiongson, Erwin R.
Foreign Aid and Consumption Smoothing: Evidence from Global Food Aid
Review of Development Economics
Gupta, Sanjeev; Leruth, Luc; de Mello, Luiz; Chakravarti, Shamit
Transition Economics: How Appropriate Is the Size and Scope of Government?
Comparative Economic Studies
Gupta, Sanjeev; Marijn, Verhoeven; Tiongson, Erwin R.
Public Spending on Health Care and the Poor
Health Economics
Hanousek, Jan; Podpiera, Richard
Czech Experience with Market Maker Trading System
Economic Systems
Kandil, Magda
Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Economic Activity in Developing Countries: Theory and Evidence
Journal of Economic Development
Kandil, Magda; Fahmy, Yasser
The Fisher Effect: New Evidence and Implications
International Review of Economics and Finance
Kandil, Magda; Woods, Jeffrey G.
Is the Business Cycle Gender Neutral? A Sectoral Investigation
Equal Opportunities International
Keen, Michael; Kotsogiannis, Christos
Leviathan and Capital Tax Competition in Federations
Journal of Public Economic Theory
Keen, Michael; Ligthart, Jenny
Cross-Border Savings Taxation in the European Union: An Economic Perspective
Tax Notes International
Keen, Michael; Mintz, Jack
The Optimal Threshold for a Value-Added Tax
Journal of Public Economics
Keen, Michael; Wildasin, David
Pareto Efficient International Taxation
American Economic Review
Kock, Udo
Social Benefits and the Flow Approach to the Labor Market
Tijdschrift voor Politieke Economic
Kose, M. Ayhan; Kim, Henry
Dynamics of Open Economy Business Cycle Models: Understanding the Role of the Discount Factor
Macroeconomic Dynamics
Kose, M. Ayhan; Kim, Henry; Plummer, Michael
Dynamics of Business Cycles in Asia
Review of Development Economics
Kose, M. Ayhan; Hirata, Hideaki; Kim, Henry
Integration and Fluctuations: The Case of MENA
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade
Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Chris; Whiteman, Charles
International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country Specific Factors
American Economic Review
Kose, M, Ayhan; Prasad, Eswar; Terrones, Marco
How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?
American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings
Kose, M. Ayhan; Sayan, Serder
Nature and Transmission of Business Cycles: The Case of
MENA and Europe
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade
Lumsdaine, Robin; Prasad, Eswar
Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach
The Economic Journal
Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria
Good, Bad or Ugly? On the Effects of Fiscal Rules with Creative Accounting
Journal of Public Economics
Pascual, Antonio G.; Cheung, Yin-Wong
Testing for Output Convergence: A Re-examination
Oxford Economic Papers
Prati, Alessandro; Bartolini, Leonardo
The Execution of Monetary Policy: A Tale of Two Central Banks
Economic Policy
Spilimbergo, Antonio; Vamvakidis, Athanasios
Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Constant Elasticity of Substitution Assumption
Journal of International Economics
Sy, Amadou
Rating the Rating Agencies: Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises?
Journal of Banking and Finance
Other External Publications (Chapters in Books)
Beetsma, Roel; Debrun, Xavier
The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policies in a Monetary Union: A Review of Recent Literature in Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policies, and Labor Markets: Macroeconomic Policy Making in the EMU
den Butter, Frank; Kock, Udo
A Brief History of Social Security in Europe in
New Social Policy Agenda for Europe and Asia
den Butter, Frank; Kock, Udo
Social Security, Economic Growth, and Poverty in
New Social Policy Agenda for Europe and Asia
Ganelli, Giovanni; Lane, Philip;
Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis: The Open Economy Dimension
in Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis
Gupta, Sanjeev
Maintaining Fiscal Control in Developing Countries, A Comment
in Brookings Trade Forum 2003
Keane, Michael; Prasad, Eswar S.
Redistribution and Growth in the Policy Transition: An Analysis from Political Economy and New Growth Theory Perspectives
in Growth and Inequality: Issues and Policy Implications
Kose, Ayhan; Prasad, Eswar; Terrones, Marco
Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Exploration
in Macroeconomic Policies in the World Economy
Prasad, Eswar S.
What Determines the Reservation Wages of Unemployed Workers? New Evidence from German Micro Data in
Institutions and Wage Formation in the New Europe
Sy, Amadou
Sovereign Ratings and Financial Crises in
Sovereign Risk and Financial Crises
Vamvakidis, Athanasios
Regional Integration and Economic Growth
in Regional Trading Arrangements
A full and updated listing of external publications of IMF staff (from 1997 onward), including forthcoming publications, can be found in a searchable database at the Research at the IMF website at http://www.imf.org/research.