The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.


The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.

Working Paper No. 04/48

Nonresident Deposits in India: In Search of Return?

Gordon, James P.; Gupta, Poonam

Working Paper No.04/49

Aid and the Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries: Informed Diagnoses for Prudent Prognoses

Nkusu, Mwanza

Working Paper No. 04/50

The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics: A Time Series Approach

Mercereau, Benoit

Working Paper No. 04/51

Missing Link: Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox

Catao, Luis A.; Kapur, Sandeep

Working Paper No. 04/52

Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?

Berg, Andrew; Borensztein, Eduardo R.;

Pattillo, Catherine A.

Working Paper No. 04/53

Sovereign Debt Defaults and Financing Needs

Kruger, Mark; Messmacher, Miguel

Working Paper No. 04/54

Boom-Bust Phases in Asset Prices and Fiscal Policy Behavior

Jaeger, Albert; Schuknecht, Ludger

Working Paper No. 04/55

Banking in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Went Wrong?

Daumont, Roland E.; Le Gall, Françoise; Leroux, François

Working Paper No. 04/56

Growth in the Middle East and North Africa

Hakura, Dalia S.

Working Paper No. 04/57

Measuring a Roller Coaster: Evidence on the Finnish Output Gap

Billmeier, Andreas

Working Paper No. 04/58

Does SDDS Subscription Reduce Borrowing Costs for Emerging Market Economies

Cady, John

Working Paper No. 04/59

How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence

Kose, M. Ayhan; Meredith, Guy M.; Towe, Christopher M.

Working Paper No. 04/60

Economic Integration, Sectoral Diversification, and Exchange Rate Policy in a Developing Economy

Srour, Gabriel

Working Paper No. 04/61

Derivative Market Competition: OTC Versus Organized Derivative Exchanges

Nystedt, Jens

Working Paper No. 04/62

Fiscal Indulgence in Central Europe: Loss of the External Anchor

Berger, Helge; Kopits, George F.; Szekely, lstvan P.

Working Paper No. 04/63

Balance Sheets, Exchange Rate Policy, and Welfare

Elekdag, Selim; Tchakarov, Ivan

Working Paper No. 04/64

Overview of the Indian Corporate Sector: 1989–2002

Topalova, Petia

Working Paper No. 04/65

The Effects of Exchange Rate Change on the Trade Balance in Croatia

Stucka, Tihomir

Working Paper No. 04/66

Prudential Responses to De Facto Dollarization

Ize, Alain; Powell, Andrew

Working Paper No. 04/67

New Estimates of Government Net Capital Stocks for 22 OECD Countries, 1960–2001

Kamps, Christophe

Working Paper No. 04/68

A Bayesian Approach to Model Uncertainty

Tsangarides, Charalambos

Working Paper No. 04/69

Estimation of Economic Growth in France Using Business Survey Data

Kabundi, Alain

Working Paper No. 04/70

Credit Rationing in Emerging Economies’ Access to Global Capital Markets

Zoli, Edda

Working Paper No. 04/71

Emerging Strains in GCC Labor Markets

Fasano, Ugo; Goyal, Rishi

Working Paper No. 04/72

Are Uniform Tariff’s Optimal?

Amiti, Mary

Working Paper No. 04/73

Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?

Cheung, Yin-Wong; Chinn, Menzie; Garcia Pascual, Antonio

Working Paper No. 04/74

The Elusive Gains from International Financial Integration

Gourinchas, Pierre-Oliver; Jeanne, Olivier D.

Working Paper No. 04/75

The IMF and the Force of History: Ten Events and Ten Ideas That Have Shaped the Institution

Boughton, James M.

Working Paper No. 04/76

Can China Grow Faster? A Diagnosis on the Fragmentation of the Domestic Capital Market

Boyreau-Debray, Genevieve; Wei, Shan-Jin

Working Paper No. 04/77

From “Hindu Growth” to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition

Rodrik, Dani; Subramanian, Arvind

Working Paper No. 04/78

Empirical Modeling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies

Dungey, Mardi; Fry, Renee; González-Hermosillo, Brenda; Martin, Vance

Working Paper No. 04/79

Economic Geography and Wages: The Case of Indonesia

Amiti, Mary; Cameron, Lisa

Working Paper No. 04/80

Political Instability and Growth: The Central African Republic

Ghura, Dhaneshwar; Mercereau, Benoit

Working Paper No. 04/81

The WTO and the Poorest Countries: The Stark Reality

Mattoo, Aaditya; Subramanian, Arvind

Working Paper No. 04/82

Foreign Bank Supervision and Challenges to Emerging Market Supervisors

Song, Inwon

Working Paper No. 04/83

Angola’s Fragile Stabilization

Giancarlo Gasha, Jose; Pastor, Gonzalo C.

Working Paper No. 04/84

Does Financial Globalization Induce Better

Macroeconomic Policies?

Tytell, Irina; Wei, Shang-fin

Working Paper No. 04/85

Interest Rate Defenses of Currency Pegs

Sole, Juan

Working Paper No. 04/86

Japan’s Distressed Debt Market

Ohashi, Kazunari; Singh, Manmohan

Working Paper No. 04/87

Revisions Policy for Official Statistics: A Matter of Governance

Carson, Carol S.; Khawaja, Sarmad; Morrison, Thomas K.

Working Paper No. 04/88

Productivity Shocks, Learning, and Open Economy Dynamics

Miniane, Jacques

Working Paper No. 04/89

Does Regulatory Governance Matter for Financial System Stability? An Empirical Analysis

Das, Udaibir S.; Quintyn, Marc G.; Chenard, Kina

Working Paper No. 04/90

Forecasting Thailand’s Core Inflation

Sun, Tao

Working Paper No. 04/91

Capital Income Taxation and Economic Growth in Open Economies

Palomba, Geremia

Working Paper No. 04/92

A Cointegration Model for Search Equilibrium Wage Formation

Broersma, Lourens; den Butter, Frank A.G.; Kock, Udo

Working Paper No. 04/93

Debt Accumulation in the CIS-7 Countries: Bad Luck, Bad Policies, or Bad Advice

Helbling, Thomas F.; Mody, Ashoka; Sahay, Ratna

Working Paper No. 04/94

Money-Based Versus Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: Is There Space for Political Opportunism?

Aisen, Ari

Working Paper No. 04/95

Economic Performance over the Conflict Cycle

Staines, Nicholas

Working Paper No. 04/96

Robust Versus Optimal Rules in monetary Policy: A Note

Demertzis, Maria; Tieman, Alexander F.

Working Paper No. 04/97

Achieving and Maintaining Price Stability in Nigeria

Batini, Nicoletta

Working Paper No. 04/98

Toward More Effective Redistribution: Reform Options for Intergovernmental Transfers in China

Ahmad, Ehtisham; Singh, Raju J.; Fortuna, Mario

Working Paper No. 04/99

Can Debt Crises Be Self-Fulfilling?

Chamon, Marcos

Working Paper No. 04/100

Conditional Lending Under Altruism

Mourmouras, Alexandros T.; Rangazas, Peter

Working Paper No. 04/101

Toward a Framework for Safeguarding Financial Stability

Houben, Aerdt; Kakes, Jan; Schinasi, Garry J.

Working Paper No. 04/102

Public Spending Management and Macroeconomic Interdependence

Ganelli, Giovanni

Working Paper No. 04/103

Trade and Industrial Location with Heterogeneous Labor

Amiti, Mary; Pissarides, Christopher

Working Paper No. 04/104

To Buy or Not to Buy? Uncertainty, Irreversibility, and Heterogeneous Investment Dynamics in Italian Company Data

Bond, Stephen; Lombardi, Domenico

Working Paper No. 04/105

Financial Crisis, Economic Recovery and Banking Development in Russia, Ukraine, and Other FSU Countries

Huang, Haizhou; Marin, Dalia; Xu, Chenggang

Working Paper No. 04/106

Challenging the Empirical Evidence from Present Value Models of the Current Account

Mercereau, Benoit; Miniane, Jacques

Working Paper No. 04/107

Multinational Affiliates and Local Financial Markets

Lehmann, Alexander C.; Sayek, Selin; Goo Kang, Hyoung

Working Paper No. 04/108

The End of Textiles Quotas: A Case Study of the Impact on Bangladesh

Mlachila, Montfort P.; Yang, Yongzheng

Working Paper No. 04/109

Performance of Western Hemisphere Trading Blocs: A Cost-Corrected Gravity Approach

Croce, Enzo; Juan-Ramon, V.H.; Zhu, Feng

Working Paper No. 04/110

Financial Integration: A New Methodology and an Illustration

Flood, Robert P.; Rose, Andrew K.

Working Paper No. 04/111

Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?

Celasun, Oya; Gelos, R. Gaston; Prati, Alessandro

Working Paper No. 04/112

The Quality Effect: Does Financial Liberalization Improve the Allocation of Capital?

Abiad, Abdul; Oomes, Nienke; Ueda, Kenichi

Working Paper No. 04/113

An Approach to Long-Term Fiscal Policy Analysis

Dunaway, Steven V.; N’Diaye, Papa

Working Paper No. 04/114

Sources of Growth in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A Cointegration Approach

Akitoby, Bernardin A.; Cinyabuguma, Matthias

Working Paper No. 04/115

Ambiguity, Transparency, and Institutional Strength

Erbas, S. Nuri

Working Paper No. 04/116

Assessing the Assessment: A Critical Look at the June 2003 Assessment of the United Kingdom’s Five Tests for Euro Entry

Cottarelli, Carlo; Escolano, Julio

Working Paper No. 04/117

On Fixed and Variable Fiscal Surplus Rules

Basci, Erdem; Ekinci, M. Fatih; Yulek, Murat

Working Paper No. 04/118

Why India Can Grow at 7 Percent a Year or More: Projections and Reflections

Rodrik, Dani; Subramanian, Arvind

Working Paper No. 04/119

A New Approach to Taxing Financial Intermediation Services Under a Value Added Tax

Zee, Howell H.

Working Paper No. 04/120

Private Finance and Public Policy

Schinasi, Garry J.

Working Paper No. 04/121

The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis: Estimating Default Risk and Economy-wide Risk Transfer

Gapen, Michael T; Gray, Dale F.; Lim, Cheng Hoon; Xiao, Yingbin

Working Paper No. 04/122

Monetary Policy, Monetary Areas, and Financial Development with Electronic Money

Arnone, Marco; Bandiera, Luca

Working Paper No. 04/123

The Empirics of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: The Cases of Mexico and Turkey

Guimaraes, Roberto; Karacadag, Cem

Working Paper No. 04/124

Corporate Financial Structure and Financial Stability

Davis, E. Philip; Stone, Mark R.

Working Paper No. 04/125

Taxation Reforms and Changes in Revenue Assignments in China

Ahmad, Ehtisham; Singh, Raju J.; Lockwood, Benjamin

Working Paper No. 04/126

From Fixed to Float: Operational Aspects of Moving Towards Exchange Rate Flexibility

Duttagupta, Rupa; Fernandez, Gilda; Karacadag, Cem

Working Paper No. 04/127

Stress Testing Financial Systems: What to Do When the Governor Calls

Jones, Matthew T.; Hilbers, Paul L.; Slack, Graham L.

Working Paper No. 04/128

Parity Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Fast, Slow or Not at All?

Cashin, Paul A.; McDermott, C. John

Working Paper No. 04/129

Foreign Banks in Emerging Market Crises: Evidence from Malaysia

Detragiache, Enrica; Gupta, Poonam

Working Paper No. 04/130

Zimbabwe: A Quest for a Nominal Anchor

Kovanen, Arto

Working Paper No. 04/131

When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion

Broner, Fernando; Gelos, R. Gaston; Reinhart, Carmen

Working Paper No. 04/132

Choosing a Budget Management System:

The Case of Rwanda

Lienert, Ian C.

Working Paper No. 04/133

The Role of Mature Market Mutual Funds in Emerging Markets: Myth or Mayhem?

Ong, Li L.; Sy, Amadou N.

Working Paper No. 04/134

International Investment Patterns

Lane, Philip; Milesi-Ferretti, Gian M.

Working Paper No. 04/135

Once Again, Is Openness Good for Growth?

Lee, Ha Y.; Ricci, Luca A.; Rigobon, Roberto

Working Paper No. 04/136

Caribbean Business Cycles

Cashin, Paul A.

Working Paper No. 04/137

Debt Maturity and the International Financial Architecture

Jeanne, Olivier D.

Working Paper No. 04/138

Economic Integration, Business Cycle, and Productivity in North America

Cardarelli, Roberto; Kose, M. Ayhan

Working Paper No. 04/139

Risk Instability and the Pattern of Foreign Direct Investment in the Middle East and North Africa Region

Chan, Kitty; Gemayel, Edward

Working Paper No. 04/140

Explaining Efficiency Differences Among Large German and Austrian Banks

Hauner, David

Working Paper No. 04/141

Are Developing Countries Better Off Spending Their Oil Wealth Upfront?

Takizawa, Hajime; Gardner, Edward H.; Ueda, Kenichi

IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website:

External Publications by IMF Staff, 2004

Journal Articles

Agenor, Pierre-Richard; Aizenman, Joshua; Hoffmaister, Alexander

The Credit Crunch in East Asia: What Can Bank Excess Liquidity Assets Tell Us?

Journal of International Money and Finance

Arora, Vivek; Vamvakidis, Athanasios

The Impact of US Economic Growth on the Rest of the World: How Much Does It Matter?

Journal of Economic Integration

Baldacci, Emanuele; Hillman, Arye L.; Kojo, Naoko C.

Growth, Governance, and Fiscal Policy Transmission Channels in Low-Income Countries

European Journal of Political Economy

Bartolini, Leonardo; Bertola, Giuseppe; Prati, Alessandro

The Overnight Interbank Market: Evidence from the G-7 and the Euro Zone

Journal of Banking and Finance

Borensztein, Eduardo; Gelos, Gaston R.

Leaders and Followers: Emerging Market Fund Behavior During Tranquil and Turbulent Times

Emerging Markets Review

Borensztein, Eduardo; Mauro, Paolo

The Case for GDP-Indexed Bonds

Economic Policy

Bulír, Aleš

Can Price Incentive to Smuggle Explain the Contraction of Cocoa Supply in Ghana?

Journal of African Economics

Bulír, Aleš; Brixiova, Z.

Growth Slowdown Under Central Planning: A Model of Poor Incentives

Economic Systems

Celasun, Oya; Gelos, Gaston R.; Prati, Alessandro

Obstacles to Disinflation: What Is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?

Economic Policy

Chan-Lau, Jorge

Corporate Restructuring in Japan

Capco Institute Journal of Financial Transformation

Chan-Lau, Jorge; Ivaschenko, Iryna

Asian Flu or Wall Street Virus? Price and Volatility Spillovers of the Tech and Non-Tech Sectors in the united States and Asia

Journal of Multinational Financial Management

Chinn, Menzie; Prasad, Eswar S.

Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration

Journal of International Economics

Choi, Woon Gyu; Cook, David

Liability Dollarization and the Bank Balance Sheet Channel

Journal of International Economics (forthcoming)

Choi, Woon Gyu; Oh, Seonghwan

The Money Demand Function with Output Uncertainty, Monetary Uncertainty, and Financial Innovations

Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking

Cubeddu, Luis

Families as Shocks

European Economic Association

Debrun, Xavier; Masson, Paul; Pattillo, Catherine

West African Currency Unions: Rationale and Sustainability

CESifo Economic Studies

Dippelsman, Robert J.; Maehle, Nils Ø.

Treatment of Mobile Phone Licenses in the National Accounts

Review of Income and Wealth

Estevao, Marcello

Do Firms Share Their Success with Workers? The Response of Wages to Product Market Conditions


Ganelli, Giovanni

Useful Government Spending, Direct Crowding-Out and Fiscal Policy Interdependence

Journal of International Money and Finance

Gelos, Gaston R.

Foreign Currency Debt in Emerging Markets: Firm-Level Evidence from Mexico

Economics Letters

Gelos, Gaston; Roldos, Jorge

Consolidation and Market Structure in Emerging Market Banking Systems

Emerging Markets Review

Gupta, Sanjeev; Clements, Benedict J.; Baldacci, Emanuele; Mulas-Granados, Carlos

The Persistence of Fiscal Adjustments in Developing Countries

Applied Economics Letters

Gupta, Sanjeev; Clements, Benedict J.; Baldacci, Emanuele; Mulas-Granados, Carlos

Fiscal Policy, Expenditure Composition, and Growth in

Low-Income Countries

Journal of International Money and Finance

Gupta, Sanjeev; Clements, Benedict J.; Bhattacharya, Rina; Chakravarti, Shamit

Fiscal Consequences of Armed Conflict and Terrorism in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

European Journal of Political Economy

Gupta, Sanjeev; Clements, Benedict J.; Tiongson, Erwin R.

Foreign Aid and Consumption Smoothing: Evidence from Global Food Aid

Review of Development Economics

Gupta, Sanjeev; Leruth, Luc; de Mello, Luiz; Chakravarti, Shamit

Transition Economics: How Appropriate Is the Size and Scope of Government?

Comparative Economic Studies

Gupta, Sanjeev; Marijn, Verhoeven; Tiongson, Erwin R.

Public Spending on Health Care and the Poor

Health Economics

Hanousek, Jan; Podpiera, Richard

Czech Experience with Market Maker Trading System

Economic Systems

Kandil, Magda

Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Economic Activity in Developing Countries: Theory and Evidence

Journal of Economic Development

Kandil, Magda; Fahmy, Yasser

The Fisher Effect: New Evidence and Implications

International Review of Economics and Finance

Kandil, Magda; Woods, Jeffrey G.

Is the Business Cycle Gender Neutral? A Sectoral Investigation

Equal Opportunities International

Keen, Michael; Kotsogiannis, Christos

Leviathan and Capital Tax Competition in Federations

Journal of Public Economic Theory

Keen, Michael; Ligthart, Jenny

Cross-Border Savings Taxation in the European Union: An Economic Perspective

Tax Notes International

Keen, Michael; Mintz, Jack

The Optimal Threshold for a Value-Added Tax

Journal of Public Economics

Keen, Michael; Wildasin, David

Pareto Efficient International Taxation

American Economic Review

Kock, Udo

Social Benefits and the Flow Approach to the Labor Market

Tijdschrift voor Politieke Economic

Kose, M. Ayhan; Kim, Henry

Dynamics of Open Economy Business Cycle Models: Understanding the Role of the Discount Factor

Macroeconomic Dynamics

Kose, M. Ayhan; Kim, Henry; Plummer, Michael

Dynamics of Business Cycles in Asia

Review of Development Economics

Kose, M. Ayhan; Hirata, Hideaki; Kim, Henry

Integration and Fluctuations: The Case of MENA

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade

Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Chris; Whiteman, Charles

International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country Specific Factors

American Economic Review

Kose, M, Ayhan; Prasad, Eswar; Terrones, Marco

How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?

American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings

Kose, M. Ayhan; Sayan, Serder

Nature and Transmission of Business Cycles: The Case of

MENA and Europe

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade

Lumsdaine, Robin; Prasad, Eswar

Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach

The Economic Journal

Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria

Good, Bad or Ugly? On the Effects of Fiscal Rules with Creative Accounting

Journal of Public Economics

Pascual, Antonio G.; Cheung, Yin-Wong

Testing for Output Convergence: A Re-examination

Oxford Economic Papers

Prati, Alessandro; Bartolini, Leonardo

The Execution of Monetary Policy: A Tale of Two Central Banks

Economic Policy

Spilimbergo, Antonio; Vamvakidis, Athanasios

Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Constant Elasticity of Substitution Assumption

Journal of International Economics

Sy, Amadou

Rating the Rating Agencies: Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises?

Journal of Banking and Finance

Other External Publications (Chapters in Books)

Beetsma, Roel; Debrun, Xavier

The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policies in a Monetary Union: A Review of Recent Literature in Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policies, and Labor Markets: Macroeconomic Policy Making in the EMU

den Butter, Frank; Kock, Udo

A Brief History of Social Security in Europe in

New Social Policy Agenda for Europe and Asia

den Butter, Frank; Kock, Udo

Social Security, Economic Growth, and Poverty in

New Social Policy Agenda for Europe and Asia

Ganelli, Giovanni; Lane, Philip;

Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis: The Open Economy Dimension

in Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis

Gupta, Sanjeev

Maintaining Fiscal Control in Developing Countries, A Comment

in Brookings Trade Forum 2003

Keane, Michael; Prasad, Eswar S.

Redistribution and Growth in the Policy Transition: An Analysis from Political Economy and New Growth Theory Perspectives

in Growth and Inequality: Issues and Policy Implications

Kose, Ayhan; Prasad, Eswar; Terrones, Marco

Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Exploration

in Macroeconomic Policies in the World Economy

Prasad, Eswar S.

What Determines the Reservation Wages of Unemployed Workers? New Evidence from German Micro Data in

Institutions and Wage Formation in the New Europe

Sy, Amadou

Sovereign Ratings and Financial Crises in

Sovereign Risk and Financial Crises

Vamvakidis, Athanasios

Regional Integration and Economic Growth

in Regional Trading Arrangements

A full and updated listing of external publications of IMF staff (from 1997 onward), including forthcoming publications, can be found in a searchable database at the Research at the IMF website at