Abstract
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.
Working Paper No. 03/37
The Long-Run Effects of Trade on Income and Income Growth
Brunner, Allan D.
Working Paper No. 03/38
Do IMF-Supported Programs Help Make Fiscal Adjustment More Durable?
Bulíř, Aleš; Moon, Soojin
Working Paper No. 03/39
Monetary Policy Rules for Financially Vulnerable Economies
Morón, Eduardo; Winkelried, Diego
Working Paper No. 03/40
Foreign Aid and Consumption Smoothing: Evidence from Global Food Aid
Gupta, Sanjeev; Clements, Benedict J.; Tiongson, Erwin R.
Working Paper No. 03/41
Exchange Rates in the Periphery and International Adjustment Under the Gold Standard
Catão, Luis A.; Solomou, Solomos
Working Paper No. 03/42
Taxation and Pricing of Petroleum Products in Developing Countries: A Framework for Analysis with Application to Nigeria
Hossain, Shahabuddin M.
Working Paper No. 03/43
Poverty and Social Impact Analysis—Linking Macroeconomic Policies to Poverty Outcomes: Summary of Early Experiences
Robb, Caroline M.
Working Paper No. 03/44
Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa
Macdonald, Ronald; Ricci, Luca A.
Working Papers No. 03/45
Primary Dealers in Government Securities: Policy Issues and Selected Countries’ Experience
Arnone, Marco; Iden, George R.
Working Paper No. 03/46
Are They All in the Same Boat? The 2000–2001 Growth Slowdown and the G-7 Business Cycle Linkages
Helbling, Thomas F.; Bayoumi, Tamim A.
Working Paper No. 03/47
Market Volatility as a Financial Soundness Indicator: An Application to Israel
Morales, Armando; Schumacher, Liliana B.
Working Paper No. 03/48
Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis?
Cerra, Valerie; Saxena, Sweta C.
Working Paper No. 03/49
Would “Cold Turkey” Work in Turkey?
Celasun, Oya; Gelos, R. Gaston; Prati, Alessandro
Working Paper No. 03/50
Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility
Kose, Ayhan; Prasad, Eswar S.; Terrones Silva, Marco E.
Working Paper No. 03/51
Does Insider Trading Raise Market Volatility?
Du, Julan; Wei, Shang-Jin
Working Paper No. 03/52
Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns
Catão, Luis A.; Timmerman, Allan
Working Paper No. 03/53
Inflation Performance and Constitutional Central Bank Independence: Evidence From Latin America and the Caribbean
Gutiérrez Garcia, Eva M.
Working Paper No. 03/54
Trade Costs, Market Integration, and Macroeconomic Volatility
Brunner, Allan D.; Naknoi, Kanda
Working Paper No. 03/55
Firm-Level Evidence on International Stock Market Comovement
Brooks, Robin J.; Del Negro, Marco
Working Paper No. 03/56
Current Issues in the Design and Conduct of Monetary Policy
Khan, Mohsin S.
Working Paper No. 03/57
Do Elections Always Motivate Incumbents? Experimentation vs. Career Concerns
Le Borgne, Eric; Lockwood, Ben
Working Paper No. 03/58
Availability of Financial Soundness Indicators
Slack, Graham L.
Working Paper No. 03/59
Determinants of the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes in Six Central American Countries: An Empirical Analysis
Papaioannou, Michael G.
Working Paper No. 03/60
Exchange Rate Policy and Debt Crises in Emerging Economies
Jahjah, Samir; Montiel, Peter J.
Working Paper No. 03/61
The Impact of External Indebtedness on Poverty in Low-Income Countries
Loko, Boileau; Mlachila, Montfort P.; Nallari, Raj; Kalonji, Kadima D.
Working Paper No. 03/62
Factors Underlying the Definition of Broad Money: An Examination of Recent U.S. Monetary Statistics and Practices of Other Countries
Lim, Ewe-Ghee; Sriram, Subramanian S.
Working Paper No. 03/63
Interest Rates, Credit Rationing, and Investment in Developing Countries
Nkusu, Mwanza
Working Paper No. 03/64
How to Fight Deflation in a Liquidity Trap: Committing to Being Irresponsible
Eggertsson, Gauti B.
Working Paper No. 03/65
Fiscal Deficits and Inflation
Catão, Luis A.; Terrones Silva, Marco E.
Working Paper No. 03/66
The GCC Monetary Union: Some Considerations for the Exchange Rate Regime
Abed, George T.; Erbas, S. Nuri; Guerami-N, Behrouz
Working Paper No. 03/67
The Dynamics of Real Interest Rates, Real Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments in China: 1980–2002
Zhongxia, Jin; Office of Executive Directors
Working Paper No. 03/68
PPP Strikes Back; Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate
Imbs, Jean; Mumtaz, Haroon; Ravn, Morten; Rey, Hélène
Working Paper No. 03/69
The New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD): Opportunities and Challenges
Funke, Norbert; Nsouli, Saleh M.
Working Paper No. 03/70
Financial Reform: What Shakes It? What Shapes It?
Abiad, Abdul; Mody, Ashoka
Working Paper No. 03/71
The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Bilateral Exchange Rate: Chile Versus the United States
Zettelmeyer, Jeromin
Working Paper No. 03/72
Macroeconomic Performance and Poverty Reduction
Epaulard, Anne
Working Paper No. 03/73
On the Heterogeneity Bias of Pooled Estimators in Stationary VAR Specifications
Rebucci, Alessandro
Working Paper No. 03/74
The Link Between Adherence to International Standards of Good Practices, Foreign Exchange Spreads, and Ratings
Christofides, C; Mulder, Christian B.; Tiffin, Andrew J.
Working Paper No. 03/75
Job-Specific Investment and the Cost of Dismissal Restrictions—The Case of Portugal
Takizawa, Hajime
Working Paper No. 03/76
Re-Establishing Credible Nominal Anchors After a Financial Crisis: A Review of Recent Experience
Berg, Andrew; Jarvis, Christopher J.; Stone, Mark R.; Zanello, Alessandro
Working Paper No. 03/77
Deflation in Hong Kong SAR
Schellekens, Philip
Working Paper No. 03/78
Do Fixed Exchange Rates Induce More Fiscal Discipline?
Sun, Yan
Working Paper No. 03/79
Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity
Barnhill Jr., Theodore M.; Kopits, George F.
Working Paper No. 03/80
Fatal Attraction: A New Measure of Contagion
Bayoumi, Tamim A.; Fazio, Giorgio; Kumar, Manmohan S.; Macdonald, Ronald
Working Paper No. 03/81
Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization
Imbs, Jean
Working Paper No. 03/82
The ECB’s Money Pillar: An Assessment
Jaeger, Albert
Working Paper 03/83
Gender-Responsive Government Budgeting
Sarraf, Feridoun
Working Paper No. 03/84
Unanticipated Shocks and Systemic Influences: The Impact of Contagion in Global Equity Markets in 1998
Dungey, Mardi; Fry, Renée; González-Hermosillo, Brenda; Martin, Vance
Working Paper No. 03/85
Regional Impact of Côte d’lvoire’s Sociopolitical Crisis: An Assessment
Doré, Ousmane; Anne, Benoît; Engmann, Dorothy
Working Paper No. 03/86
International Financial Integration
Lane, Philip; Milesi-Ferretti, Gian M.
Working Papers No. 03/87
Pricing Policies and Inflation Inertia
Céspedes, Luis; Kumhof, Michael; Parrado, Eric
Working Papers No. 03/88
Budget Support Versus Project Aid
Cordelia, Tito; Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni
Working Paper No. 03/89
Argentina: Macroeconomic Crisis and Household Vulnerability
Corbacho, Ana; García-Escribano, Mercedes; Inchauste, Gabriela
Working Paper 03/90
Reforming Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations in Argentina
Cuevas, Alfredo
Working Paper No. 03/91
The ECB’s Inflation Objective
Kieler, Mads
Working Paper No. 03/92
Pick Your Poison: The Exchange Rate Regime and Capital Account Volatility in Emerging Markets
Iwata, Shigeru; Tanner, Evan C.
Working Paper No. 03/93
The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country: The Case of Russia
Spatafora, Nicola; Stavrev, Emil
Working Paper No. 03/94
Cross-Country and Cross-Sector Analysis of Transparency of Monetary and Financial Policies
Sundararajan, V.; Das, Udaibir S.; Yossifov, Plamen
Working Paper No. 03/95
Foreign Exchange Intervention in Developing and Transition Economies: Results of a Survey
Canales Kriljenko, Jorge I.
Working Paper No. 03/96
Network Externalities and Dollarization Hysteresis: The Case of Russia
Oomes, Nienke
Working Paper No. 03/97
Regional Convergence and the Role of Federal Transfers in Canada
Kaufman, Martin D.; Swagel, Phillip L.; Dunaway, Steven V.
Working Paper No. 03/98
IMF Conditionality and Program Ownership: A Case for Streamlined Conditionality
Erbas, S. Nuri
Working Paper No. 03/99
Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Australian Dollar: Has It Mattered?
Edison, Hali; Cashin, Paul A.; Liang, Hong
Working Paper No. 03/100
Catalyzing Capital Flows: Do IMF-Supported Programs Work as Commitment Devices?
Mody, Ashoka; Saravia, Diego
Working Paper No. 03/101
Emerging Issues in Banking Regulation
Chami, Ralph; Khan, Mohsin S.; Sharma, Sunil
Working Paper No. 03/102
Bayesian VARs: A Survey of the Recent Literature with an Application to the European Monetary System
Ciccarelli, Matteo; Rebucci, Alessandro
Working Paper No. 03/103
Armenia: The Road to Sustained Rapid Growth, Crosscountry Evidence
Iradian, Garbis M.
Working Paper No. 03/104
Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Malawi
Mathisen, Johan
Working Paper No. 03/105
Overshooting and Dollarization in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Beaugrand, Philippe
Working Paper No. 03/106
Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with an Application to Sovereign Debt Crises
Chan-Lau, Jorge
Working Paper No. 03/107
The Corporation of Foreign Bondholders
Mauro, Paolo; Yafeh, Yishay
Working Paper No. 03/108
The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics: Evidence from the United States
Mercereau, Benoit
Working Paper No. 03/109
Stock Markets and Real Exchange Rate: An Intertemporal Approach
Mercereau, Benoit
Working Paper No. 03/110
Measuring the Impact of Distortions in Agricultural Trade in Partial and General Equilibrium
Tokarick, Stephen P.
Working Paper No. 03/111
Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models: A Selective Overview
Sarno, Lucio
Working Paper No. 03/112
Retail Bank Interest Rate Pass-Through: Is Chile Atypical?
Espinosa-Vega, Marco A.; Rebucci, Alessandro
Working Paper No. 03/113
Do Brazilian Banks Compete?
Belaisch, Agnes J.
Working Paper No. 03/114
Bank Risk-Taking and Competition Revisited
Boyd, John H.; De Nicolo, Gianni
Working Paper No. 03/115
An Intraday Pricing Model of Foreign Exchange Markets
Romeu, Rafael
Working Paper No. 03/116
Managing Risks in Financial Market Development: The Role of Sequencing
Karacadag, Cem; Sundararajan, V.; Elliott, Jennifer
Working Paper No. 03/117
Corporate Balance Sheet Restructuring and Investment in the Euro Area
Jaeger, Albert
Working Paper No. 03/118
Welfare Implications of HIV/AIDS
Crafts, Nicholas; Haacker, Markus
Working Paper No. 03/119
The Millennium Development Goals, Capacity Building, and the Role of the IMF
Hakura, Dalia S.; Nsouli, Saleh M.
Working Paper No. 03/120
Changes in Inventories in the National Accounts
Shrestha, Manik L.; Fassler Tevlin, Segismundo
Working Paper No. 03/121
Responsibility of Central Banks for Stability in Financial Markets
Schinasi, Garry J.
Working Paper No. 03/122
Rating the Rating Agencies: Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises
Sy, Amadou N.
Working Paper No. 03/123
An Empirical Reassessment of the Relationship Between Finance and Growth
Favara, Giovanni
Working Paper No. 03/124
Trade Liberalization and Real Exchange Rate Movement
Li, Xiangming