The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.


The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.

Working Paper No. 03/37

The Long-Run Effects of Trade on Income and Income Growth

Brunner, Allan D.

Working Paper No. 03/38

Do IMF-Supported Programs Help Make Fiscal Adjustment More Durable?

Bulíř, Aleš; Moon, Soojin

Working Paper No. 03/39

Monetary Policy Rules for Financially Vulnerable Economies

Morón, Eduardo; Winkelried, Diego

Working Paper No. 03/40

Foreign Aid and Consumption Smoothing: Evidence from Global Food Aid

Gupta, Sanjeev; Clements, Benedict J.; Tiongson, Erwin R.

Working Paper No. 03/41

Exchange Rates in the Periphery and International Adjustment Under the Gold Standard

Catão, Luis A.; Solomou, Solomos

Working Paper No. 03/42

Taxation and Pricing of Petroleum Products in Developing Countries: A Framework for Analysis with Application to Nigeria

Hossain, Shahabuddin M.

Working Paper No. 03/43

Poverty and Social Impact Analysis—Linking Macroeconomic Policies to Poverty Outcomes: Summary of Early Experiences

Robb, Caroline M.

Working Paper No. 03/44

Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa

Macdonald, Ronald; Ricci, Luca A.

Working Papers No. 03/45

Primary Dealers in Government Securities: Policy Issues and Selected Countries’ Experience

Arnone, Marco; Iden, George R.

Working Paper No. 03/46

Are They All in the Same Boat? The 2000–2001 Growth Slowdown and the G-7 Business Cycle Linkages

Helbling, Thomas F.; Bayoumi, Tamim A.

Working Paper No. 03/47

Market Volatility as a Financial Soundness Indicator: An Application to Israel

Morales, Armando; Schumacher, Liliana B.

Working Paper No. 03/48

Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis?

Cerra, Valerie; Saxena, Sweta C.

Working Paper No. 03/49

Would “Cold Turkey” Work in Turkey?

Celasun, Oya; Gelos, R. Gaston; Prati, Alessandro

Working Paper No. 03/50

Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility

Kose, Ayhan; Prasad, Eswar S.; Terrones Silva, Marco E.

Working Paper No. 03/51

Does Insider Trading Raise Market Volatility?

Du, Julan; Wei, Shang-Jin

Working Paper No. 03/52

Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns

Catão, Luis A.; Timmerman, Allan

Working Paper No. 03/53

Inflation Performance and Constitutional Central Bank Independence: Evidence From Latin America and the Caribbean

Gutiérrez Garcia, Eva M.

Working Paper No. 03/54

Trade Costs, Market Integration, and Macroeconomic Volatility

Brunner, Allan D.; Naknoi, Kanda

Working Paper No. 03/55

Firm-Level Evidence on International Stock Market Comovement

Brooks, Robin J.; Del Negro, Marco

Working Paper No. 03/56

Current Issues in the Design and Conduct of Monetary Policy

Khan, Mohsin S.

Working Paper No. 03/57

Do Elections Always Motivate Incumbents? Experimentation vs. Career Concerns

Le Borgne, Eric; Lockwood, Ben

Working Paper No. 03/58

Availability of Financial Soundness Indicators

Slack, Graham L.

Working Paper No. 03/59

Determinants of the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes in Six Central American Countries: An Empirical Analysis

Papaioannou, Michael G.

Working Paper No. 03/60

Exchange Rate Policy and Debt Crises in Emerging Economies

Jahjah, Samir; Montiel, Peter J.

Working Paper No. 03/61

The Impact of External Indebtedness on Poverty in Low-Income Countries

Loko, Boileau; Mlachila, Montfort P.; Nallari, Raj; Kalonji, Kadima D.

Working Paper No. 03/62

Factors Underlying the Definition of Broad Money: An Examination of Recent U.S. Monetary Statistics and Practices of Other Countries

Lim, Ewe-Ghee; Sriram, Subramanian S.

Working Paper No. 03/63

Interest Rates, Credit Rationing, and Investment in Developing Countries

Nkusu, Mwanza

Working Paper No. 03/64

How to Fight Deflation in a Liquidity Trap: Committing to Being Irresponsible

Eggertsson, Gauti B.

Working Paper No. 03/65

Fiscal Deficits and Inflation

Catão, Luis A.; Terrones Silva, Marco E.

Working Paper No. 03/66

The GCC Monetary Union: Some Considerations for the Exchange Rate Regime

Abed, George T.; Erbas, S. Nuri; Guerami-N, Behrouz

Working Paper No. 03/67

The Dynamics of Real Interest Rates, Real Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments in China: 1980–2002

Zhongxia, Jin; Office of Executive Directors

Working Paper No. 03/68

PPP Strikes Back; Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate

Imbs, Jean; Mumtaz, Haroon; Ravn, Morten; Rey, Hélène

Working Paper No. 03/69

The New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD): Opportunities and Challenges

Funke, Norbert; Nsouli, Saleh M.

Working Paper No. 03/70

Financial Reform: What Shakes It? What Shapes It?

Abiad, Abdul; Mody, Ashoka

Working Paper No. 03/71

The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Bilateral Exchange Rate: Chile Versus the United States

Zettelmeyer, Jeromin

Working Paper No. 03/72

Macroeconomic Performance and Poverty Reduction

Epaulard, Anne

Working Paper No. 03/73

On the Heterogeneity Bias of Pooled Estimators in Stationary VAR Specifications

Rebucci, Alessandro

Working Paper No. 03/74

The Link Between Adherence to International Standards of Good Practices, Foreign Exchange Spreads, and Ratings

Christofides, C; Mulder, Christian B.; Tiffin, Andrew J.

Working Paper No. 03/75

Job-Specific Investment and the Cost of Dismissal Restrictions—The Case of Portugal

Takizawa, Hajime

Working Paper No. 03/76

Re-Establishing Credible Nominal Anchors After a Financial Crisis: A Review of Recent Experience

Berg, Andrew; Jarvis, Christopher J.; Stone, Mark R.; Zanello, Alessandro

Working Paper No. 03/77

Deflation in Hong Kong SAR

Schellekens, Philip

Working Paper No. 03/78

Do Fixed Exchange Rates Induce More Fiscal Discipline?

Sun, Yan

Working Paper No. 03/79

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity

Barnhill Jr., Theodore M.; Kopits, George F.

Working Paper No. 03/80

Fatal Attraction: A New Measure of Contagion

Bayoumi, Tamim A.; Fazio, Giorgio; Kumar, Manmohan S.; Macdonald, Ronald

Working Paper No. 03/81

Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization

Imbs, Jean

Working Paper No. 03/82

The ECB’s Money Pillar: An Assessment

Jaeger, Albert

Working Paper 03/83

Gender-Responsive Government Budgeting

Sarraf, Feridoun

Working Paper No. 03/84

Unanticipated Shocks and Systemic Influences: The Impact of Contagion in Global Equity Markets in 1998

Dungey, Mardi; Fry, Renée; González-Hermosillo, Brenda; Martin, Vance

Working Paper No. 03/85

Regional Impact of Côte d’lvoire’s Sociopolitical Crisis: An Assessment

Doré, Ousmane; Anne, Benoît; Engmann, Dorothy

Working Paper No. 03/86

International Financial Integration

Lane, Philip; Milesi-Ferretti, Gian M.

Working Papers No. 03/87

Pricing Policies and Inflation Inertia

Céspedes, Luis; Kumhof, Michael; Parrado, Eric

Working Papers No. 03/88

Budget Support Versus Project Aid

Cordelia, Tito; Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni

Working Paper No. 03/89

Argentina: Macroeconomic Crisis and Household Vulnerability

Corbacho, Ana; García-Escribano, Mercedes; Inchauste, Gabriela

Working Paper 03/90

Reforming Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations in Argentina

Cuevas, Alfredo

Working Paper No. 03/91

The ECB’s Inflation Objective

Kieler, Mads

Working Paper No. 03/92

Pick Your Poison: The Exchange Rate Regime and Capital Account Volatility in Emerging Markets

Iwata, Shigeru; Tanner, Evan C.

Working Paper No. 03/93

The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country: The Case of Russia

Spatafora, Nicola; Stavrev, Emil

Working Paper No. 03/94

Cross-Country and Cross-Sector Analysis of Transparency of Monetary and Financial Policies

Sundararajan, V.; Das, Udaibir S.; Yossifov, Plamen

Working Paper No. 03/95

Foreign Exchange Intervention in Developing and Transition Economies: Results of a Survey

Canales Kriljenko, Jorge I.

Working Paper No. 03/96

Network Externalities and Dollarization Hysteresis: The Case of Russia

Oomes, Nienke

Working Paper No. 03/97

Regional Convergence and the Role of Federal Transfers in Canada

Kaufman, Martin D.; Swagel, Phillip L.; Dunaway, Steven V.

Working Paper No. 03/98

IMF Conditionality and Program Ownership: A Case for Streamlined Conditionality

Erbas, S. Nuri

Working Paper No. 03/99

Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Australian Dollar: Has It Mattered?

Edison, Hali; Cashin, Paul A.; Liang, Hong

Working Paper No. 03/100

Catalyzing Capital Flows: Do IMF-Supported Programs Work as Commitment Devices?

Mody, Ashoka; Saravia, Diego

Working Paper No. 03/101

Emerging Issues in Banking Regulation

Chami, Ralph; Khan, Mohsin S.; Sharma, Sunil

Working Paper No. 03/102

Bayesian VARs: A Survey of the Recent Literature with an Application to the European Monetary System

Ciccarelli, Matteo; Rebucci, Alessandro

Working Paper No. 03/103

Armenia: The Road to Sustained Rapid Growth, Crosscountry Evidence

Iradian, Garbis M.

Working Paper No. 03/104

Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Malawi

Mathisen, Johan

Working Paper No. 03/105

Overshooting and Dollarization in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Beaugrand, Philippe

Working Paper No. 03/106

Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with an Application to Sovereign Debt Crises

Chan-Lau, Jorge

Working Paper No. 03/107

The Corporation of Foreign Bondholders

Mauro, Paolo; Yafeh, Yishay

Working Paper No. 03/108

The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics: Evidence from the United States

Mercereau, Benoit

Working Paper No. 03/109

Stock Markets and Real Exchange Rate: An Intertemporal Approach

Mercereau, Benoit

Working Paper No. 03/110

Measuring the Impact of Distortions in Agricultural Trade in Partial and General Equilibrium

Tokarick, Stephen P.

Working Paper No. 03/111

Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models: A Selective Overview

Sarno, Lucio

Working Paper No. 03/112

Retail Bank Interest Rate Pass-Through: Is Chile Atypical?

Espinosa-Vega, Marco A.; Rebucci, Alessandro

Working Paper No. 03/113

Do Brazilian Banks Compete?

Belaisch, Agnes J.

Working Paper No. 03/114

Bank Risk-Taking and Competition Revisited

Boyd, John H.; De Nicolo, Gianni

Working Paper No. 03/115

An Intraday Pricing Model of Foreign Exchange Markets

Romeu, Rafael

Working Paper No. 03/116

Managing Risks in Financial Market Development: The Role of Sequencing

Karacadag, Cem; Sundararajan, V.; Elliott, Jennifer

Working Paper No. 03/117

Corporate Balance Sheet Restructuring and Investment in the Euro Area

Jaeger, Albert

Working Paper No. 03/118

Welfare Implications of HIV/AIDS

Crafts, Nicholas; Haacker, Markus

Working Paper No. 03/119

The Millennium Development Goals, Capacity Building, and the Role of the IMF

Hakura, Dalia S.; Nsouli, Saleh M.

Working Paper No. 03/120

Changes in Inventories in the National Accounts

Shrestha, Manik L.; Fassler Tevlin, Segismundo

Working Paper No. 03/121

Responsibility of Central Banks for Stability in Financial Markets

Schinasi, Garry J.

Working Paper No. 03/122

Rating the Rating Agencies: Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises

Sy, Amadou N.

Working Paper No. 03/123

An Empirical Reassessment of the Relationship Between Finance and Growth

Favara, Giovanni

Working Paper No. 03/124

Trade Liberalization and Real Exchange Rate Movement

Li, Xiangming

IMF Research Bulletin, September 2003
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.