Abstract
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.
Working Paper No. 02/231
Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey
Leigh, Daniel; Rossi, Marco
Working Paper No. 02/232
Measuring Liquidity in Financial Markets
Sarr, Abdourahmane; Lybek, Tony
Working Paper No. 02/233
Market Predictability of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions: A Comparative Examination
Ross, Kevin
Working Paper No. 02/234
“Original Sin,” Balance Sheet Crises and the Roles of International Lending
Zettelmeyer, Jeromin; Jeanne, Olivier D.
Working Paper No. 02/235
Imperfect Competition and the Design of VAT Regimes: The Case of Energy Trade Between Russia and Ukraine
Shiells, Clinton R.
Working Paper No. 02/236
Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs
Golosov, Mikhail; King, John R.
Working Paper No. 02/237
Firm Investment, Corporate Finance, and Taxation
Palomba, Geremia
Working Paper No. 02/238
Stock Market Developments and Private Consumer Spending in Emerging Markets
Funke, Norbert
Working Paper No. 02/239
Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany
Funke, Norbert; Matsuda, Akimi
Working Paper No. 02/240
Performance Budgeting—Is Accrual Accounting Required?
Diamond, Jack
Working Paper No. 03/1
Testing the Informational Efficiency of OTC Options on Emerging Market Currencies
Chan-Lau, Jorge; Morales, Armando
Working Paper No. 03/2
A Comparison Between Two Public Expenditure Management Systems in Africa
Lienert, Ian C.
Working Paper No. 03/3
How Much Leverage Is Too Much, or Does Corporate Risk Determine the Severity of a Recession?
Ivaschenko, Iryna V.
Working Paper No. 03/4
What Determines the Reservation Wages of Unemployed Workers? New Evidence from German Micro Data
Prasad, Eswar S.
Working Paper No. 03/5
Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Habit Formation and Nominal Rigidities
Choi, Woon Gyu; Jung, Yongseung
Working Paper No. 03/6
Small African Stock Markets—The Case of the Lusaka Stock Exchange
Marone, Heloisa
Working Paper No. 03/7
Currency Demand, the Underground Economy, and Tax Evasion: The Case of Guyana
Faal, Ebrima A.
Working Paper No. 03/8
What Determines the Implementation of IMF-Supported Programs?
Ivanova, Anna; Mayer, Wolfgang; Mourmouras, Alexandros T.; Anayiotos, George C.
Working Paper No. 03/9
Inflation Targeting Regimes
Carare, Alina; Stone, Mark R.
Working Paper No. 03/10
FDI to Africa: The Role of Price Stability and Currency Instability
Rogoff, Kenneth; Reinhart, Carmen
Working Paper No. 03/11
Dollarization of Liabilities: Beyond the Usual Suspects
Barajas Estrada, Adolfo; Morales, Armando
Working Paper No. 03/12
Inflation Targeting Lite
Stone, Mark R.
Working Paper No. 03/13
Toward a Statutory Approach to Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Lessons from Corporate Bankruptcy Practice Around the World
Bolton, Patrick
Working Paper No. 03/14
Income Inequality and Redistributive Government Spending
De Mello Jr., Luiz R.; Tiongson, Erwin H.
Working Paper No. 03/15
Information Technology and Productivity Growth in Asia
Lee, Il Houng; Khatri, Yougesh
Working Paper No. 03/16
Political Economy of Oil-Revenue Sharing in a Developing Country: Illustrations from Nigeria
Ahmad, Ehtisham; Singh, Raju J.
Working Paper No. 03/17
What Happens After Supervisory Intervention? Considering Bank Closure Options
Andrews, Michael; Josefsson, Mats A.
Working Paper 03/18
Anticipating Arrears to the IMF: Early Warning Systems
Oka, Chikako
Working Paper 03/19
Fiscal Sustainability and Resource Mobilization in the Dominican Republic
Melhado Orellana, Oscar E.
Working Paper No. 03/20
Portfolio Flows into India: Do Domestic Fundamentals Matter?
Gordon, James P.; Gupta, Poonam
Working Paper No. 03/21
Medium-Term Exchange Rate Forecasting: What Can We Expect?
Meredith, Guy M.
Working Paper No. 03/22
Productivity Trends in India’s Manufacturing Sectors in the Last Two Decades
Unel, Bulent
Working Paper No. 03/23
An Analysis of the Underground Economy and Its Macroeconomic Consequences
Dabla-Norris, Era; Feltenstein, Andrew
Working Paper No. 03/24
Financial Infrastructure, Group Interests, and Capital Accumulation: Theory, Evidence, and Policy
Bossone, Biagio; Mahajan, Sandeep; Zahir, Farah
Working Paper No. 03/25
Some Implications for Monetary Policy of Uncertain Exchange Rate Pass-Through
Hunt, Benjamin L.; Isard, Peter
Working Paper No. 03/26
Exchange Rate Regime Considerations in an Oil Economy: The Case of the Islamic Republic of Iran
Celasun, Oya
Working Paper No. 03/27
How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?
Kose, Ayhan; Prasad, Eswar S.; Terrones Silva, Marco E.
Working Paper No. 03/28
The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate of the Malagasy Franc: Estimation and Assessment
Cady, John
Working Paper No. 03/29
Economic Implications of China’s Demographics in the 21st Century
Cheng, Kevin C.
Working Paper No. 03/30
Trade, Growth, and Poverty: A Selective Survey
Berg, Andrew; Krueger, Anne O.
Working Paper No. 03/31
Some Simulation Properties of the Major Euro Area Economies in MULTIMOD
Hunt, Benjamin L.; Laxton, Douglas M.
Working Paper No. 03/32
Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach
Abiad, Abdul
Working Paper No. 03/33
Performance Budgeting: Managing the Reform Process
Diamond, Jack
Working Paper No. 03/34
Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: The Effects of Financial Liberalization
Kaminsky, Graciela; Schmukler, Sergio
Working Paper No. 03/35
A Currency Union for the Caribbean
Worrell, DeLisle
Working Paper No. 03/36
Fiscal Adjustment in Transition Countries: Evidence from the 1990s
Purfield, Catriona M.
Working Papers, Policy Discussion Papers, and many other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm.