The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.

Abstract

The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.

Working Paper No. 02/111

Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia

Ramakrishnan, Uma; Vamvakidis, Athanasios

Working Paper No. 02/112

Aid and Fiscal Management

Bulir, Ales; Lane, Timothy D.

Working Paper No. 02/113

In Finance, Size Matters

Bossone, Biagio; Lee, Jong-Kun

Working Paper No. 02/114

Poverty in a Wealthy Economy: The Case of Nigeria

Thomas, Saji; Canagarajah, Sudharshan

Working Paper No. 02/115

Limits of Conditionality in Poverty Reduction Programs

Cordella, Tito; Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni

Working Paper No. 02/116

Assessing Monthly Progress Towards Annual Fiscal Revenue Targets

Kanda, Daniel S.

Working Paper No. 02/117

It’s Not What You Make, It’s How You Use IT: Measuring the Welfare Benefits of the IT Revolution Across Countries

Bayoumi, Tamim A.; Haacker, Markus

Working Paper No. 02/118

Is Growth Enough? Macroeconomic Policy and Poverty Reduction

Ghura, Dhaneshwar; Leite, Carlos A.; Tsangarides, Charalambos

Working Paper No. 02/119

Demutualization of Securities Exchanges: A Regulatory Perspective

Elliott, Jennifer

Working Paper No. 02/120

Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis

Edison, Hali; Klein, Michael; Ricci, Luca A.; Slok, Torsten M.

Working Paper No. 02/121

Labor Market Pooling

De Blasio, Guido; Di Addario, Sabrina

Working Paper No. 02/122

Collateral in Loan Classification and Provisioning

Song, Inwon

Working Paper No. 02/123

Migration and Human Capital Formation: Theory and Evidence from the U.S. High School Movement

Ramcharan, Rodney

Working Paper No. 02/124

Some International Issues in Commodity Taxation

Keen, Michael J.

Working Paper No. 02/125

Internal Models-Based Capital Regulation and Bank Risk-Taking Incentives

Kupiec, Paul H.

Working Paper No. 02/126

Seductions of an Underdevelopment Trap: Systemic Impediments to Agricultural Reform in Russia

Amelina, Maria; Gershenson, Dmitry

Working Paper No. 02/127

Lithuania: History and Future of the Currency Board

Arrangement

Alonso-Gamo, Patricia; Fabrizio, Stefania; Kramarenko, Vitali; Wang, Qing

Working Paper No. 02/128

Intergovernmental Grants Systems and Management: Applications of a General Framework to Indonesia

Ahmad, S.E.; Ma, Jun; Searle, Bob; Piperno, Stefano

Working Paper No. 02/129

Treasury Reform in Kazakhstan: Lessons for Other Countries

Ramamurthy, S.; Tandberg, Eivind

Working Paper No. 02/130

Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in the

G-7 Countries

Chinn, Menzie; Lee, Jaewoo

Working Paper No. 02/131

Will There Be New Emerging-Market Economies in Africa by the Year 2020?

Berthelemy, Jean-Claude; Soderling, Ludvig

Working Paper No. 02/132

The Speed of Adjustment and the Sequencing of Economic Reforms: Issues and Guidelines for Policymakers

Nsouli, Saleh M.; Rached, Mounir R.; Funke, Norbert

Working Paper No. 02/133

Bankruptcy Procedures for Sovereigns: A History of Ideas, 1976–2001

Rogoff, Kenneth; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin

Working Paper No. 02/134

Regional Labor Market Disparities in Belgium

Estevao, Marcello

Working Paper No. 02/135

Changes in the Structure of Earnings During the Polish Transition

Keane, Michael; Prasad, Eswar S.

Working Paper No. 02/136

Indonesia: Managing Decentralization

Ahmad, S.E.; Mansoor, Ali M.

Working Paper No. 02/137

Central Bank Financial Strength, Transparency, and Policy Credibility

Stella, Peter

Working Paper No. 02/138

Liberalization of Trade in Financial Services and Financial Sector Stability (Analytical Approach)

Kireyev, Alexei P.

Working Paper No. 02/139

Liberalization of Trade in Financial Services and Financial Sector Stability (Empirical Approach)

Kireyev, Alexei P.

Working Paper No. 02/140

Issues in Domestic Petroleum Pricing in Oil-Producing Countries

Gupta, Sanjeev; Clements, Benedict J.; Fletcher, Kevin T.; Inchauste, Gabriela

Working Paper No. 02/141

Liability Dollarization and the Bank Balance Sheet Channel

Choi, Woon Gyu; Cook, David H.

Working Paper No. 02/142

Fiscal Consequences of Armed Conflict and Terrorism in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Gupta, Sanjeev; Clements, Benedict J.; Bhattacharya, Rina; Chakravarti, Shamit

Working Paper No. 02/143

Wage Centralization, Union Bargaining, and Macroeconomic Performance

McHugh, James E.

Working Paper No. 02/144

Spreading Currency Crises: The Role of Economic Interdependence

Berger, Wolfram; Wagner, Helmut

Working Paper No. 02/145

International Financial Integration and Economic Growth

Edison, Hali; Levine, Ross; Ricci, Luca A.; Slok, Torsten M.

Working Paper No. 02/146

Determinants of Commercial Bank Performance in Transition: An Application of Data Envelopment Analysis

Grigorian, David A.; Manole, Vlad

Working Paper No. 02/147

The Rise in Comovement Across National Stock Markets: Market Integration or Global Bubble?

Brooks, Robin J.; Del Negro, Marco

Working Paper No. 02/148

Trade and Integration in the Caribbean

Egoume Bossogo, Philippe; Mendis, Chandima

Working Paper No. 02/149

Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility

Catao, Luis A.; Sutton, Bennett W.

Working Paper No. 02/150

Are Mexican Business Cycles Asymmetrical?

Santos, Andre O.

Working Paper No. 02/151

Wage Moderation in France

Estevao, Marcello; Nargis, Nigar

Working Paper No. 02/152

Corporate Performance and Governance in Malaysia

Khatri, Yougesh; Leruth, Luc E.; Piesse, Jenifer

Working Paper No. 02/153

Growth in Switzerland: Can Better Performance Be Sustained?

Gagales, Anastassios

Working Paper No. 02/154

Asian Flu or Wall Street Virus? Price and Volatility Spillovers of the Tech and Non-Tech Sectors in the United States and Asia

Chan-Lau, Jorge; Ivaschenko, Iryna V

Working Paper No. 02/155

The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes Since 1990: Evidence from De Facto Policies

Bubula, Andrea; Otker-Robe, Inci

Working Paper No. 02/156

The Determinants of On-the-Job Search: An Empirical Exploration

Fuentes, Andres

Working Paper No. 02/157

Internal Models, Subordinated Debt, and Regulatory Capital Requirements for Bank Credit Risk

Kupiec, Paul H.

Working Paper No. 02/158

The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act and Its Rules of Origin: Generosity Undermined?

Mattoo, Aaditya; Roy, Devesh; Subramanian, Arvind

Working Paper No. 02/159

Microfinance Institutions and Public Policy

Hardy, Daniel C.; Holden, Paul; Prokopenko, Vassili

Working Paper No. 02/160

How Competitive Is Irish Manufacturing?

Cerra, Valerie; Soikkeli, Jarkko

Working Paper No. 02/162

Politics, Government Size, and Fiscal Adjustment in Industrial Countries

Annett, Anthony M.

Working Paper No. 02/164

On Sand and the Role of Grease in Labor Markets: How Does Germany Compare?

Decressin, Anja; Decressin, Jorg W.

Working Paper No. 02/165

An Empirical Investigation of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa

Bhundia, Ashok J.

Working Paper No. 02/166

Exchange Rate Responses to Inflation in Bangladesh

Hossain, Akhtar

Working Paper No. 02/167

Statistical Treatment of “Build-Own-Operate-Transfer” Schemes

Donaghue, Brian T.

Working Paper No. 02/168

Recentralization in China?

Ahmad, S.E.; Keping, Li; Richardson, Thomas J.; Singh, Raju J.

Working Paper No. 02/169

Transition and Regional Inequality in Russia: Reorganization or Procrastination?

Dolinskaya, Irina

Working Paper No. 02/170

Sovereign Credit Ratings Methodology: An Evaluation

Bhatia, Ashok Vir

Working Paper No. 02/171

The Missing Globalization Puzzle

Coe, David T.; Subramanian, Arvind; Tamirisa, Natalia T.; Bhavnani, Rikhil

IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website: http://www.imf.org/research.

Visiting Scholars, July–September 2002

Adeboye Adeyemo; University of Ibadan, Nigeria

Yaw Asante; University of Ghana, Ghana

Ricardo Caballero; Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Daniel Cohen; University of Paris, France

Betty Daniel; The University of Albany, N.Y.

Emmanuel Douya; University of Yaounde II, Cameroon

Allan Drazen; University of Maryland

Charles Engel; University of Wisconsin

Kristin Forbes; Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Petra Geraats; University of Cambridge, United Kingdom

Calvin Ying-Shun Ho; University of California—Berkeley

David Hummels; Purdue University

Graciela Kaminsky; George Washington University

Kala Krishna; Pennsylvania State University

Arvind Krishnamurthy; Northwestern University

Oludoton Lawanson; University of Ibadan, Nigeria

Ronald MacDonald; University of Strathclyde, United Kingdom

Anke Maselli; German Savings Banks Association, Germany

Christopher Otrok; University of Virginia

Jean Remy Oyaya; Institute of Economics & Finance, Gabon

Andrew Powell; University Torcuato Di Tella, Argentina

Sergio Rebelo; Northwestern University

Lee Redding; University of Glasgow, United Kingdom

Roberto Rigobon; Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Xavier Sala-I-Martin; University Pompeu Fabra, Spain

Sekou Sangare; University of Cocody—Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire

Mark Taylor; Warwick University, United Kingdom

Carlos Vegh; University of California—Los Angeles