IMG staff papers

Robert Flood

Editor and Committee Chair

Ayhan Kose

Co-Editor

Sean M. Culhane

Senior Editor

David Einhorn

Assistant Editor

Jelena Kmezic

Research Assistant

Rosalind Oliver

Administrative Coordinator

Editorial Committee

Tito Cordella

Giovanni Dell’Ariccia

Enrica Detragiache

Atish R. Ghosh

Olivier Jeanne

Andrei Kirilenko

Laura Kodres

Prakash Loungani

Donald J. Mathieson

Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti

Chris Papageorgiou

Jorge Roldos

Antonio Spilimbergo

The objective of IMF Staff Papers is to publish high-quality research produced by IMF staff and invited guests on a variety of topics of interest to a broad audience including academics and policymakers in the member countries of the Fund. The papers selected for publication in the journal are subject to an extensive review process using both internal and external referees. IMF Staff Papers also welcomes outside comments, criticisms, and interesting replications of published work. The views presented in published papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to or reported as reflecting the position of the IMF, its Executive Board, or any other organization mentioned herein.

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E-mail: publications@imf.org

Internet: www.palgrave-journals.com/imfsp

EDITOR’S NOTE

The Editor invites from contributors outside the IMF brief comments (not more than 1,000 words) on published articles in IMF Staff Papers. These comments should be addressed to the Editor, who will forward them to the author of the original article for reply. Both the comments and the reply will be considered for publication.

The data underlying articles published in IMF Staff Papers (where available) may be obtained from the journal’s website (www.palgrave-journals.com/imfsp). Readers are invited to use these data to expand on the material in the articles, and the journal will consider publishing such work.

© 2007 by the International Monetary Fund

ISBN 978-1-58906-605-2

International Standard Serial Number: ISSN 1020-7635

This serial publication is catalogued as follows:

International Monetary Fund

IMF staff papers — International Monetary Fund. v. 1–Feb. 1950- [Washington] International Monetary Fund.

v. tables, diagrs. 26 cm.

Three no. a year, 1950–1977; four no. a year, 1978—

Indexes:

Vols. 1—27, 1950—80, 1 v.

ISSN 1020-7635 = IMF staff papers — International Monetary Fund.

1. Foreign exchange—Periodicals. 2. Commerce—Periodicals.

3. Currency question—Periodicals.

HG3810.15 332.082 53-35483

Contents

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

Allan Timmermann

Front Matter Page

IMF Staff Papers

Vol. 54, No. 1

© 2007 International Monetary Fund

Contents

The Missing Globalization Puzzle: Evidence of the Declining Importance of Distance

David T. Coe, Arvind Subramanian, and Natalia T. Tamirisa

Front Matter Page

IMF Staff Papers

Vol. 54, No. 1

© 2007 International Monetary Fund

Contents

Foreign Aid Policy and Sources of Poverty: A Quantitative Framework

Alex Mourmouras and Peter Rangazas

Front Matter Page

IMF Staff Papers

Vol. 54, No. 1

© 2007 International Monetary Fund

Contents

Commodity Price Shocks and the Odds on Fiscal Performance: A Structural Vector Autoregression Approach

Francis Y. Kumah and John M. Matovu

Front Matter Page

IMF Staff Papers

Vol. 54, No. 1

© 2007 International Monetary Fund

Contents

Labor Policies to Raise Employment

Marcello Estevão

Front Matter Page

IMF Staff Papers

Vol. 54, No. 1

© 2007 International Monetary Fund

Contents

Grants vs. Loans

Tito Cordella and Hulya Ulku

Front Matter Page

IMF Staff Papers

Vol. 54, No. 1

© 2007 International Monetary Fund

Contents

Front Matter Page

IMF Staff Papers

Vol. 54, No. 1

© 2007 International Monetary Fund