This last issue for 2005 comprises seven new papers, including a contribution to the journal's occasional Special Data Section about domestic debt markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, and also an in-depth look at the internal job market for entry-level economists at the IMF. The remaining articles cover toics as diverse as: modeling of asset markets, exchange rates in developing countries, international bank claims on Latin America, the effectiveness of "early warning" systems, and the use (by emerging market countries) of the IMF's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).

Abstract

This last issue for 2005 comprises seven new papers, including a contribution to the journal's occasional Special Data Section about domestic debt markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, and also an in-depth look at the internal job market for entry-level economists at the IMF. The remaining articles cover toics as diverse as: modeling of asset markets, exchange rates in developing countries, international bank claims on Latin America, the effectiveness of "early warning" systems, and the use (by emerging market countries) of the IMF's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).

Volume 52 (2005) comprises three regular issues and one special issue, as follows:

No. 1, 1–148

No. 2, 149–366

No. 3, 369–551

Special Issue, 1–180

Authors

Aiyar, Shekhar, and Carl-Johan Dalgaard. Total Factor Productivity Revisited: A Dual Approach to Development Accounting

Aliber, Robert Z. The 35 Most Tumultuous Years in Monetary History: Shocks, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Trauma

Arora, Vivek, and Athanasios Vamvakidis. How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth?

Baqir, Reza, Rodney Ramcharan, and Ratna Sahay. IMF Programs and Growth: Is Optimism Defensible?

Barron, Greg, and Felix Várdy. The Internal Job Market of the IMF's Economist Program

Berg, Andrew, Eduardo Borensztein, and Catherine Pattillo. Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?

Berger, Wolfram, and Helmut Wagner. Interdependent Expectations and the Spread of Currency Crises

Borensztein, Eduardo, Andrew Berg, and Catherine Pattillo. Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?

Bown, Chad P., and Rachel McCulloch. U.S. Trade Policy and the Adjustment Process

Boyer, Russell S., and Warren Young. Mundell's International Economics: Adaptations and Debates

Brandner, Peter, and Harald Grech. Why Did Central Banks Intervene in ERM I? The Post-1993 Experience

Cady, John. Does SDDS Subscription Reduce Borrowing Costs for Emerging Market Economies?

Cargill, Thomas F. Is the Bank of Japan's Financial Structure an Obstacle to Policy?

Cerra, Valerie, and Sweta Chaman Saxena. Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis?

Chami, Ralph, Connel Fullenkamp, and Samir Jahjah. Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?

Choudhri, Ehsan U., and Mohsin S. Khan. Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present?

Christensen, Jakob. Domestic Debt Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa

Cordella, Tito, and Eduardo Levy Yeyati. Country Insurance

Dalgaard, Carl-Johan, and Shekhar Aiyar. Total Factor Productivity Revisited: A Dual Approach to Development Accounting

Engerman, Stanley. On the Accuracy of Some Past and Present Forecasts

Fogel, Robert W. Reconsidering Expectations of Economic Growth After World War II from the Perspective of 2004

Frankel, Jeffrey. Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries

Fullenkamp, Connel, Ralph Chami, and Samir Jahjah. Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?

Genberg, Hans, and Alexander K. Swoboda. Exchange Rate Regimes: Does What Countries Say Matter?

Grech, Harald, and Peter Brandner. Why Did Central Banks Intervene in ERM I? The Post-1993 Experience

Ize, Alain. Capitalizing Central Banks: A Net Worth Approach

Jahjah, Samir, Ralph Chami, and Connel Fullenkamp. Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?

Jeanne, Olivier, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer. The Mussa Theorem (and Other Results on IMF-Induced Moral Hazard)

Khan, Mohsin S., and Ehsan U. Choudhri. Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present?

Kose, M. Ayhan, Eswar S. Prasad, and Marco E. Terrones. Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization

Levchenko, Andrei A. Financial Liberalization and Consumption Volatility in Developing Countries

Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, and Tito Cordella. Country Insurance

Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, Andrew Powell, and Ivanna Vladkova-Hollar. Banking on Foreigners: The Behavior of International Bank Claims on Latin America, 1985–2000

McCulloch, Rachel, and Chad P. Bown. U.S. Trade Policy and the Adjustment Process

Pattillo, Catherine, Andrew Berg, and Eduardo Borensztein. Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?

Powell, Andrew, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, and Ivanna Vladkova-Hollar. Banking on Foreigners: The Behavior of International Bank Claims on Latin America, 1985–2000

Prasad, Eswar S., M. Ayhan Kose, and Marco E. Terrones. Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization

Ramcharan, Rodney, Reza Baqir, and Ratna Sahay. IMF Programs and Growth: Is Optimism Defensible?

Rodrik, Dani, and Arvind Subramanian. From “Hindu Growth” to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition

Romeu, Rafael B. Why Are Asset Markets Modeled Successfully, But Not Their Dealers?

Sahay, Ratna, Reza Baqir, and Rodney Ramcharan. IMF Programs and Growth: Is Optimism Defensible?

Saxena, Sweta Chaman, and Valerie Cerra. Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis?

Shiells, Clinton R. VAT Design and Energy Trade: The Case of Russia and Ukraine

Stella, Peter. Central Bank Financial Strength, Transparency, and Policy Credibility

Subramanian, Arvind, and Dani Rodrik. From “Hindu Growth” to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition

Swoboda, Alexander K., and Hans Genberg. Exchange Rate Regimes: Does What Countries Say Matter?

Terrones, Marco E., M. Ayhan Kose, and Eswar S. Prasad. Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization

Vamvakidis, Athanasios, and Vivek Arora. How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth?

Várdy, Felix, and Greg Barron. The Internal Job Market of the IMF's Economist Program

Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, and Andrew Powell. Banking on Foreigners: The Behavior of International Bank Claims on Latin America, 1985–2000

Wagner, Helmut, and Wolfram Berger. Interdependent Expectations and the Spread of Currency Crises

Young, Warren, and Russell S. Boyer. Mundell's International Economics: Adaptations and Debates

Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, and Olivier Jeanne. The Mussa Theorem (and Other Results on IMF-Induced Moral Hazard)

Titles

On the Accuracy of Some Past and Present Forecasts. Stanley Engerman

Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development? Ralph Chami, Connel Fullenkamp, and Samir Jahjah

Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice? Andrew Berg, Eduardo Borensztein, and Catherine Pattillo

Banking on Foreigners: The Behavior of International Bank Claims on Latin America, 1985–2000. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Andrew Powell, and Ivanna Vladkova-Hollar

Capitalizing Central Banks: A Net Worth Approach. Alain Ize

Central Bank Financial Strength, Transparency, and Policy Credibility. Peter Stella

Country Insurance. Tito Cordella and Eduardo Levy Yeyati

Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis? Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena

Does SDDS Subscription Reduce Borrowing Costs for Emerging Market Economies? John Cady

Domestic Debt Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. Jakob Christensen

Exchange Rate Regimes: Does What Countries Say Matter? Hans Genberg and Alexander K. Swoboda

Financial Liberalization and Consumption Volatility in Developing Countries. Andrei A. Levchenko

From “Hindu Growth” to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition. Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian

Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization. M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar S. Prasad, and Marco E. Terrones

How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth? Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis

IMF Programs and Growth: Is Optimism Defensible? Reza Baqir, Rodney Ramcharan, and Ratna Sahay

Interdependent Expectations and the Spread of Currency Crises. Wolfram Berger and Helmut Wagner

The Internal Job Market of the IMF's Economist Program. Greg Barron and Felix Várdy

Is the Bank of Japan's Financial Structure an Obstacle to Policy? Thomas F. Cargill

Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries. Jeffrey Frankel

Mundell's International Economics: Adaptations and Debates. Russell S. Boyer and Warren Young

The Mussa Theorem (and Other Results on IMF-Induced Moral Hazard). Olivier Jeanne and Jeromin Zettelmeyer

Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present? Ehsan U. Choudhri and Mohsin S. Khan

Reconsidering Expectations of Economic Growth After World War II from the Perspective of 2004. Robert W. Fogel

The 35 Most Tumultuous Years in Monetary History: Shocks, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Trauma. Robert Z. Aliber

Total Factor Productivity Revisited: A Dual Approach to Development Accounting. Shekhar Aiyar and Carl-Johan Dalgaard

U.S. Trade Policy and the Adjustment Process. Chad P. Bown and Rachel McCulloch

VAT Design and Energy Trade: The Case of Russia and Ukraine. Clinton R. Shiells

Why Are Asset Markets Modeled Successfully, But Not Their Dealers? Rafael B. Romeu

Why Did Central Banks Intervene in ERM I? The Post-1993 Experience. Peter Brandner and Harald Grech

Subjects

To facilitate electronic storage and retrieval of bibliographic data, IMF Staff Papers has adopted the subject classification scheme of the Journal of Economic Literature (Nashville, Tennessee).

B METHODOLOGY AND HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT

B1 History of Economic Thought through 1925

B10 General

  • On the Accuracy of Some Past and Present Forecasts. Stanley Engerman

B2 History of Economic Thought since 1925

B20 General

  • On the Accuracy of Some Past and Present Forecasts. Stanley Engerman

B29 Other

  • Mundell's International Economics: Adaptations and Debates. Russell S. Boyer and Warren Young

B3 History of Thought: Individuals

B31 Individuals

  • Mundell's International Economics: Adaptations and Debates. Russell S. Boyer and Warren Young

C MATHEMATICAL AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS

C2 Econometric Methods: Single Equation Models

C22 Time-Series Models

  • Does SDDS Subscription Reduce Borrowing Costs for Emerging Market Economies? John Cady

C3 Econometric Methods: Multiple/Simultaneous Equation Models

C32 Time-Series Models

  • Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis? Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena

C7 Game Theory and Bargaining Theory

C78 Bargaining Theory; Matching Theory

  • The Internal Job Market of the IMF's Economist Program. Greg Barron and Felix Várdy

D MICROECONOMICS

D6 Economic Welfare

D64 Altruism

  • Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development? Ralph Chami, Connel Fullenkamp, and Samir Jahjah

D7 Analysis of Collective Decision-Making

D73 Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations

  • The Internal Job Market of the IMF's Economist Program. Greg Barron and Felix Várdy

D8 Information and Uncertainty

D82 Asymmetric and Private Information

  • Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development? Ralph Chami, Connel Fullenkamp, and Samir Jahjah

E MACROECONOMICS AND MONETARY ECONOMICS

E1 General Aggregative Models

E10 General

  • Mundell's International Economics: Adaptations and Debates. Russell S. Boyer and Warren Young

E3 Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

  • Is the Bank of Japan's Financial Structure an Obstacle to Policy? Thomas F. Cargill

E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles

  • Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization. M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar S. Prasad, and Marco E. Terrones

E4 Money and Interest Rates

E42 Monetary Standards and Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

  • Central Bank Financial Strength, Transparency, and Policy Credibility. Peter Stella

  • Exchange Rate Regimes: Does What Countries Say Matter? Hans Genberg and Alexander K. Swoboda

E43 Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

  • Domestic Debt Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. Jakob Christensen

E44 Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

  • Domestic Debt Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. Jakob Christensen

E5 Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

E58 Central Banks and Their Policies

  • Capitalizing Central Banks: A Net Worth Approach. Alain Ize

  • Central Bank Financial Strength, Transparency, and Policy Credibility. Peter Stella

  • Interdependent Expectations and the Spread of Currency Crises. Wolfram Berger and Helmut Wagner

  • Is the Bank of Japan's Financial Structure an Obstacle to Policy? Thomas F. Cargill

  • Why Did Central Banks Intervene in ERM I? The Post-1993 Experience. Peter Brandner and Harald Grech

E6 Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, Macroeconomic Policy, and General Outlook

E61 Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

  • Central Bank Financial Strength, Transparency, and Policy Credibility. Peter Stella

E63 Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary or Stabilization Policy

  • Capitalizing Central Banks: A Net Worth Approach. Alain Ize

  • Is the Bank of Japan's Financial Structure an Obstacle to Policy? Thomas F. Cargill

F INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

F02 International Economic Order; Economic Integration: General

  • Financial Liberalization and Consumption Volatility in Developing Countries. Andrei A. Levchenko

F12 Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies

  • VAT Design and Energy Trade: The Case of Russia and Ukraine. Clinton R. Shiells

F13 Commercial Policy; Protection; Promotion; Trade Negotiations

  • U.S. Trade Policy and the Adjustment Process. Chad P. Bown and Rachel McCulloch

F14 Country and Industry Studies of Trade

  • U.S. Trade Policy and the Adjustment Process. Chad P. Bown and Rachel McCulloch

F15 Economic Integrations

  • How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth? Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis

  • U.S. Trade Policy and the Adjustment Process. Chad P. Bown and Rachel McCulloch

F2 International Factor Movements and International Business

F22 International Migration

  • Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development? Ralph Chami, Connel Fullenkamp, and Samir Jahjah

F3 International Finance

  • Why Are Asset Markets Modeled Successfully, But Not Their Dealers? Rafael B. Romeu

F30 General

  • Country Insurance. Tito Cordella and Eduardo Levy Yeyati

F31 Foreign Exchange

  • Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice? Andrew Berg, Eduardo Borensztein, and Catherine Pattillo

  • Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present? Ehsan U. Choudhri and Mohsin S. Khan

  • Why Did Central Banks Intervene in ERM I? The Post-1993 Experience. Peter Brandner and Harald Grech

F32 Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

  • Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries. Jeffrey Frankel

  • The Mussa Theorem (and Other Results on IMF-Induced Moral Hazard). Olivier Jeanne and Jeromin Zettelmeyer

F33 International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

  • Does SDDS Subscription Reduce Borrowing Costs for Emerging Market Economies? John Cady

  • Exchange Rate Regimes: Does What Countries Say Matter? Hans Genberg and Alexander K. Swoboda

  • IMF Programs and Growth: Is Optimism Defensible? Reza Baqir, Rodney Ramcharan, and Ratna Sahay

  • Interdependent Expectations and the Spread of Currency Crises. Wolfram Berger and Helmut Wagner

  • Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries. Jeffrey Frankel

  • The Mussa Theorem (and Other Results on IMF-Induced Moral Hazard). Olivier Jeanne and Jeromin Zettelmeyer

  • Why Did Central Banks Intervene in ERM I? The Post-1993 Experience. Peter Brandner and Harald Grech

F34 International Lending and Debt Problems

  • Does SDDS Subscription Reduce Borrowing Costs for Emerging Market Economies? John Cady

  • Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries. Jeffrey Frankel

F35 Foreign Aid

  • IMF Programs and Growth: Is Optimism Defensible? Reza Baqir, Rodney Ramcharan, and Ratna Sahay

F36 Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

  • Financial Liberalization and Consumption Volatility in Developing Countries. Andrei A. Levchenko

  • Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization. M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar S. Prasad, and Marco E. Terrones

F39 Other

  • Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis? Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena

F4 Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

  • Why Are Asset Markets Modeled Successfully, But Not Their Dealers? Rafael B. Romeu

F41 Open Economy Macroeconomics

  • Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis? Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena

  • Interdependent Expectations and the Spread of Currency Crises. Wolfram Berger and Helmut Wagner

  • Mundell's International Economics: Adaptations and Debates. Russell S. Boyer and Warren Young

  • Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present? Ehsan U. Choudhri and Mohsin S. Khan

F42 International Policy Coordination

  • Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis? Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena

F43 Economic Growth of Open Economies

  • Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization. M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar S. Prasad, and Marco E. Terrones

  • How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth? Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis

F47 Forecasting and Simulation

  • Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice? Andrew Berg, Eduardo Borensztein, and Catherine Pattillo

F49 Other

  • Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis? Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena

G FINANCIAL ECONOMICS

G1 General Financial Markets

  • Why Are Asset Markets Modeled Successfully, But Not Their Dealers? Rafael B. Romeu

G15 International Financial Markets

  • Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis? Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena

G2 Financial Institutions and Services

G21 Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages

  • Banking on Foreigners: The Behavior of International Bank Claims on Latin America, 1985–2000. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Andrew Powell, and Ivanna Vladkova-Hollar

G22 Insurance; Insurance Companies

  • Country Insurance. Tito Cordella and Eduardo Levy Yeyati

H PUBLIC ECONOMICS

H2 Taxation and Subsidies

H21 Efficiency; Optimal Taxation

  • VAT Design and Energy Trade: The Case of Russia and Ukraine. Clinton R. Shiells

H5 National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

H50 General

  • Country Insurance. Tito Cordella and Eduardo Levy Yeyati

H6 National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

H63 Debt; Debt Management

  • Capitalizing Central Banks: A Net Worth Approach. Alain Ize

  • Domestic Debt Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. Jakob Christensen

H8 Miscellaneous Issues

H87 International Fiscal Issues

  • The 35 Most Tumultuous Years in Monetary History: Shocks, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Trauma. Robert Z. Aliber

M BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION AND BUSINESS ECONOMICS; MARKETING; ACCOUNTING

M4 Accounting

M40 General

  • Capitalizing Central Banks: A Net Worth Approach. Alain Ize

N ECONOMIC HISTORY

N1 Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations

N10 General, International, or Comparative

  • The 35 Most Tumultuous Years in Monetary History: Shocks, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Trauma. Robert Z. Aliber

N2 Financial Markets and Institutions

N20 General, International, or Comparative

  • The 35 Most Tumultuous Years in Monetary History: Shocks, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Trauma. Robert Z. Aliber

N26 Latin America; Caribbean

  • Banking on Foreigners: The Behavior of International Bank Claims on Latin America, 1985–2000. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Andrew Powell, and Ivanna Vladkova-Hollar

O ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, AND GROWTH

O1 Economic Development

O10 General

  • Reconsidering Expectations of Economic Growth After World War II from the Perspective of 2004. Robert W. Fogel

O11 Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

  • From “Hindu Growth” to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition. Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian

O2 Development Planning and Policy

O23 Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

  • Domestic Debt Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. Jakob Christensen

O4 Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

O47 Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity

  • From “Hindu Growth” to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition. Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian

  • Total Factor Productivity Revisited: A Dual Approach to Development Accounting. Shekhar Aiyar and Carl-Johan Dalgaard

O5 Economywide Country Studies

O53 Asia Including Middle East

  • From “Hindu Growth” to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition. Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian

O55 Africa

  • Domestic Debt Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. Jakob Christensen

O57 Comparative Studies of Countries

  • Total Factor Productivity Revisited: A Dual Approach to Development Accounting. Shekhar Aiyar and Carl-Johan Dalgaard

Q AGRICULTURAL AND NATURAL RESOURCE ECONOMICS

Q4 Energy

Q43 Energy and the Macroeconomy

  • VAT Design and Energy Trade: The Case of Russia and Ukraine. Clinton R. Shiells

In statistical matter throughout this issue,

  • dots (‖) indicate that the data are not available;

  • a dash (—) indicates that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist;

  • a single dot (.) indicates decimals;

  • a comma (,) separates thousands and millions;

  • “billion” means a thousand million; and “trillion” means a thousand billion;

  • a short dash (–) is used between years or months (for example, 1998–99 or January—June) to indicate a total of the years or months inclusive of the beginning and ending years or months;

  • a slash (/) is used between years (for example, 1998/99) to indicate a fiscal year or a crop year; and

  • components of tables may not add to totals shown because of rounding.

The term “country,” as used in this publication, may not refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice; the term may also cover some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained and provided internationally on a separate and independent basis.

Design: Luisa Menjivar-Macdonald and Sanaa Elaroussi