Abstract
This paper tests uncovered interest parity (UIP) using interest rates on longer maturity bonds for the Group of Seven countries. These long-horizon regressions yield much more support for UIP—all of the coefficients on interest differentials are of the correct sign, and almost all are closer to the UIP value of unity than to zero. The paper also analyzes the decision by a government facing electoral uncertainty to implement structural reforms in the presence of fiscal restraints similar to the Stability and Growth Pact.
Volume 51 Index
Volume 51 (2004) comprises three issues, as follows:
No. 1, 1–194
No. 2, 195–408
No. 3, 409–615
Authors
Beetsma, Roel M.W.J., and Xavier Debrun. Reconciling Stability and Growth: Smart Pacts and Structural Reforms
Berger, Helge, Carsten Hefeker, and Ronnie Schöb. Optimal Central Bank Conservatism and Monopoly Trade Unions
Bossone, Biagio, and Jong-Kun Lee. In Finance, Size Matters
Branson, Elena Tchernykh, and Mark P. Taylor. Asymmetric Arbitrage and Default Premiums Between the U.S. and Russian Financial Markets
Braumann, Benedikt. High Inflation and Real Wages
Brune, Nancy, Geoffrey Garrett, and Bruce Kogut. The IMF and the Global Spread of Privatization
Celasun, Oya, R. Gaston Gelos, and Alessandro Prati. Would “Cold Turkey” Work in Turkey?
Chadha, Jagjit S., Lucio Sarno, and Giorgio Valente. Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices, and Exchange Rates
Chan-Lau, Jorge A., Donald J. Mathieson, and James Y. Yao. Extreme Contagion in Equity Markets
Chinn, Menzie D., and Guy Meredith. Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity
Chirwa, Ephraim W., and Montfort Mlachila. Financial Reforms and Interest Rate Spreads in the Commercial Banking System in Malawi
Clark, Peter B., and Jacques J. Polak. International Liquidity and the Role of the SDR in the International Monetary System
Debrun, Xavier, and Roel M.W.J. Beetsma. Reconciling Stability and Growth: Smart Pacts and Structural Reforms
Dridi, Jemma, and Kimberley Dale Zieschang. Export and Import Price Indices
Duttagupta, Rupa, and Antonio Spilimbergo. What Happened to Asian Exports During the Crisis?
Edison, Hali J., Michael W. Klein, Luca Antonio Ricci, and Torsten Sløk. Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis
Garrett, Geoffrey, Nancy Brune, and Bruce Kogut. The IMF and the Global Spread of Privatization
Gelos, R. Gaston, Oya Celasun, and Alessandro Prati. Would “Cold Turkey” Work in Turkey?
Hefeker, Carsten, Helge Berger, and Ronnie Schöb. Optimal Central Bank Conservatism and Monopoly Trade Unions
Kim, Se-Jik. Macro Effects of Corporate Restructuring in Japan
Klein, Michael W., Hali J. Edison, Luca Antonio Ricci, and Torsten Sløk. Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis
Kogut, Bruce, Nancy Brune, and Geoffrey Garrett. The IMF and the Global Spread of Privatization
Lee, Jong-Kun, and Biagio Bossone. In Finance, Size Matters
Li, Xiangming. Trade Liberalization and Real Exchange Rate Movement
Mathieson, Donald J., Jorge A. Chan-Lau, and James Y. Yao. Extreme Contagion in Equity Markets
Mauro, Paolo. The Persistence of Corruption and Slow Economic Growth
Mengistae, Taye, and Catherine Pattillo. Export Orientation and Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Meredith, Guy, and Menzie D. Chinn. Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity
Miniane, Jacques. A New Set of Measures on Capital Account Restrictions
Mlachila, Monfort, and Ephraim W. Chirwa. Financial Reforms and Interest Rate Spreads in the Commercial Banking System in Malawi
Pattillo, Catherine, and Taye Mengistae. Export Orientation and Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Polak, Jacques J., and Peter B. Clark. International Liquidity and the Role of the SDR in the International Monetary System
Prasad, Eswar S. The Unbearable Stability of the German Wage Structure: Evidence and Interpretation
Prati, Alessandro, Oya Celasun, and R. Gaston Gelos. Would “Cold Turkey” Work in Turkey?
Ramcharan, Rodney. Higher or Basic Education? The Composition of Human Capital and Economic Development
Ramírez, Carlos D., and Ling Hui Tan. Singapore Inc. versus the Private Sector: Are Government-Linked Companies Different?
Razin, Assaf, and Efraim Sadka. A Brazilian-Type Debt Crisis
Ricci, Luca Antonio, Hali J. Edison, Michael W. Klein, and Torsten Sløk. Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis
Sadka, Efraim, and Assaf Razin. A Brazilian-Type Debt Crisis
Sarno, Lucio, Jagjit S. Chadha, and Giorgio Valente. Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices, and Exchange Rates
Schöb, Ronnie, Helge Berger, and Carsten Hefeker. Optimal Central Bank Conservatism and Monopoly Trade Unions
Sløk, Torsten, Hali J. Edison, Michael W. Klein, and Luca Antonio Ricci. Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis
Spilimbergo, Antonio, and Ruta Duttagupta. What Happened to Asian Exports During the Crisis?
Tan, Ling Hui, and Carlos D. Ramírez. Singapore Inc. versus the Private Sector: Are Government-Linked Companies Different?
Taylor, Mark P., and Elena Tchernykh Branson. Asymmetric Arbitrage and Default Premiums Between the U.S. and Russian Financial Markets
Valente, Giorgio, Jagjit S. Chadha, and Lucio Sarno. Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices, and Exchange Rates
Yao, James Y., Jorge A. Chan-Lau, and Donald J. Mathieson. Extreme Contagion in Equity Markets
Zieschang, Kimberly Dale, and Jemma Dridi. Export and Import Price Indices
Titles
Asymmetric Arbitrage and Default Premiums Between the U.S. and Russian Financial Markets. By Mark P. Taylor and Elena Tchernykh Branson
A Brazilian-Type Debt Crisis. By Assaf Razin and Efraim Sadka
Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis. By Hali J. Edison, Michael W. Klein, Luca Antonio Ricci, and Torsten Sløk
Export and Import Price Indices. By Jemma Dridi and Kimberly Dale Zieschang
Export Orientation and Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. By Taye Mengistae and Catherine Pattillo
Extreme Contagion in Equity Markets. By Jorge A. Chan-Lau, Donald J. Mathieson, and James Y. Yao
Financial Reforms and Interest Rate Spreads in the Commercial Banking System in Malawi. By Montfort Mlachila and Ephraim W. Chirwa
High Inflation and Real Wages. By Benedikt Braumann
Higher or Basic Education? The Composition of Human Capital and Economic Development. By Rodney Ramcharan
The IMF and the Global Spread of Privatization. By Nancy Brune, Geoffrey Garrett, and Bruce Kogut
In Finance, Size Matters. By Biagio Bossone and Jong-Kun Lee
International Liquidity and the Role of the SDR in the International Monetary System. By Peter B. Clark and Jacques J. Polak
Macro Effects of Corporate Restructuring in Japan. By Se-Jik Kim
Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity. By Menzie D. Chinn and Guy Meredith
Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices, and Exchange Rates. By Jagjit S. Chadha, Lucio Sarno, and Giorgio Valente
A New Set of Measures on Capital Account Restrictions. By Jacques Miniane
Optimal Central Bank Conservatism and Monopoly Trade Unions. By Helge Berger, Carsten Hefeker, and Ronnie Schöb
The Persistence of Corruption and Slow Economic Growth. By Paolo Mauro
Reconciling Stability and Growth: Smart Pacts and Structural Reforms. By Roel M.W.J. Beetsma and Xavier Debrun
Singapore Inc. versus the Private Sector: Are Government-Linked Companies Different? By Carlos D. Ramírez and Ling Hui Tan
Trade Liberalization and Real Exchange Rate Movement. By Xiangming Li
The Unbearable Stability of the German Wage Structure: Evidence and Interpretation. By Eswar S. Prasad
What Happened to Asian Exports During the Crisis? By Rupa Duttagupta and Antonio Spilimbergo
Would “Cold Turkey” Work in Turkey? By Oya Celasun, R. Gaston Gelos, and Alessandro Prati
Subjects
To facilitate electronic storage and retrieval of bibliographic data, IMF Staff Papers has adopted the subject classification scheme of the Journal of Economic Literature (Nashville, Tennessee).
C MATHEMATICAL AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS
C1 Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
C10 General
Extreme Contagion in Equity Markets. By Jorge A. Chan-Lau, Donald J. Mathieson, and James Y. Yao
C4 Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
C42 Survey Methods
Export and Import Price Indices. By Jemma Dridi and Kimberly Dale Zieschang
C43 Index Numbers and Aggregation
Export and Import Price Indices. By Jemma Dridi and Kimberly Dale Zieschange
C8 Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
C82 Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data
A New Set of Measures on Capital Account Restrictions. By Jacques Miniane
D MICROECONOMICS
D2 Production and Organizations
D21 Firm Behavior
Export Orientation and Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. By Taye Mengistae and Catherine Pattillo
In Finance, Size Matters. By Biagio Bossone and Jong-Kun Lee
D24 Production; Capital and Total Factor Productivity; Capacity
Export Orientation and Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. By Taye Mengistae and Catherine Pattillo
D7 Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
D73 Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations
The Persistence of Corruption and Slow Economic Growth. By Paolo Mauro
E MACROECONOMICS AND MONETARY ECONOMICS
E2 Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages
The Unbearable Stability of the German Wage Structure: Evidence and Interpretation. By Eswar S. Prasad
E3 Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Would “Cold Turkey” Work in Turkey? By Oya Celasun, R. Gaston Gelos, and Alessandro Prati
E4 Money and Interest Rates
E40 General
Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices, and Exchange Rates. By Jagjit S. Chadha, Lucio Sarno, and Giorgio Valente
E42 Monetary Standards and Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
Reconciling Stability and Growth: Smart Pacts and Structural Reforms. By Roel M.W.J. Beetsma and Xavier Debrun
E43 Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
Financial Reforms and Interest Rate Spreads in the Commercial Banking System in Malawi. By Montfort Mlachila and Ephraim W. Chirwa
E44 Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
High Inflation and Real Wages. By Benedikt Braumann
Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices, and Exchange Rates. By Jagjit S. Chadha, Lucio Sarno, and Giorgio Valente
E5 Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E50 General
Optimal Central Bank Conservatism and Monopoly Trade Unions. By Helge Berger, Carsten Hefeker, and Ronnie Schöb
E52 Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)
Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices, and Exchange Rates. By Jagjit S. Chadha, Lucio Sarno, and Giorgio Valente
Would “Cold Turkey” Work in Turkey? By Oya Celasun, R. Gaston Gelos, and Alessandro Prati
E58 Central Banks and Their Policies
Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices, and Exchange Rates. By Jagjit S. Chadha, Lucio Sarno, and Giorgio Valente
Optimal Central Bank Conservatism and Monopoly Trade Unions. By Helge Berger, Carsten Hefeker, and Ronnie Schöb
E6 Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, Macroeconomic Policy, and General Outlook
E60 General
Macro Effects of Corporate Restructuring in Japan. By Se-Jik Kim
E61 Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
Reconciling Stability and Growth: Smart Pacts and Structural Reforms. By Roel M.W.J. Beetsma and Xavier Debrun
F INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
F02 International Economic Order; Economic Integration: General
A New Set of Measures on Capital Account Restrictions. By Jacques Miniane
F1 Trade
What Happened to Asian Exports During the Crisis? By Rupa Duttagupta and Antonio Spilimbergo
F14 Country and Industry Studies of Trade
What Happened to Asian Exports During the Crisis? By Rupa Duttagupta and Antonio Spilimbergo
F2 International Factor Movements and International Business
F21 International Investment; Long-term Capital Movements
A Brazilian-Type Debt Crisis. By Assaf Razin and Efraim Sadka
Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity. By Menzie D. Chinn and Guy Meredith
F3 International Finance
F30 General
Extreme Contagion in Equity Markets. By Jorge A. Chan-Lau, Donald J. Mathieson, and James Y. Yao
F31 Foreign Exchange
Asymmetric Arbitrage and Default Premiums Between the U.S. and Russian Financial Markets. By Mark P. Taylor and Elena Tchernykh Branson
Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity. By Menzie D. Chinn and Guy Meredith
Trade Liberalization and Real Exchange Rate Movement. By Xiangming Li
F32 Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis. By Hali J. Edison, Michael W. Klein, Luca Antonio Ricci, and Torsten Sløk
F33 International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis. By Hali J. Edison, Michael W. Klein, Luca Antonio Ricci, and Torsten Sløk
The IMF and the Global Spread of Privatization. By Nancy Brune, Geoffrey Garrett, and Bruce Kogut
International Liquidity and the Role of the SDR in the International Monetary System. By Peter B. Clark and Jacques J. Polak
A New Set of Measures on Capital Account Restrictions. By Jacques Miniane
Reconciling Stability and Growth: Smart Pacts and Structural Reforms. By Roel M.W.J. Beetsma and Xavier Debrun
F34 International Lending and Debt Problems
A Brazilian-Type Debt Crisis. By Assaf Razin and Efraim Sadka
The IMF and the Global Spread of Privatization. By Nancy Brune, Geoffrey Garrett, and Bruce Kogut
F36 Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis. By Hali J. Edison, Michael W. Klein, Luca Antonio Ricci, and Torsten Sløk
F4 Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
F40 General
Trade Liberalization and Real Exchange Rate Movement. By Xiangming Li
F41 Open Economy Macroeconomics
International Liquidity and the Role of the SDR in the International Monetary System. By Peter B. Clark and Jacques J. Polak
Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity. By Menzie D. Chinn and Guy Meredith
G FINANCIAL ECONOMICS
G1 General Financial Markets
G10 General
Extreme Contagion in Equity Markets. By Jorge A. Chan-Lau, Donald J. Mathieson, and James Y. Yao
G14 Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
In Finance, Size Matters. By Biagio Bossone and Jong-Kun Lee
G15 International Financial Markets
Asymmetric Arbitrage and Default Premiums Between the U.S. and Russian Financial Markets. By Mark P. Taylor and Elena Tchernykh Branson
A Brazilian-Type Debt Crisis. By Assaf Razin and Efraim Sadka
Extreme Contagion in Equity Markets. By Jorge A. Chan-Lau, Donald J. Mathieson, and James Y. Yao
G2 Financial Institutions and Services
G21 Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
Financial Reforms and Interest Rate Spreads in the Commercial Banking System in Malawi. By Montfort Mlachila and Ephraim W. Chirwa
G3 Corporate Finance and Governance
G32 Financing Policy; Capital and Ownership Structure
Singapore Inc. versus the Private Sector: Are Government-Linked Companies Different? By Carlos D. Ramírez and Ling Hui Tan
G33 Bankruptcy; Liquidation
Macro Effects of Corporate Restructuring in Japan. By Se-Jik Kim
G34 Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Voting; Proxy Contests
Macro Effects of Corporate Restructuring in Japan. By Se-Jik Kim
H PUBLIC ECONOMICS
H5 National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
The Persistence of Corruption and Slow Economic Growth. By Paolo Mauro
I HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE
I2 Education
I20 General
Higher or Basic Education? The Composition of Human Capital and Economic Development. By Rodney Ramcharan
J LABOR AND DEMOGRAPHIC ECONOMICS
J3 Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
J31 Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials by Skill, Training, Occupation, etc.
The Unbearable Stability of the German Wage Structure: Evidence and Interpretation. By Eswar S. Prasad
J5 Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining
J50 General
Optimal Central Bank Conservatism and Monopoly Trade Unions. By Helge Berger, Carsten Hefeker, and Ronnie Schöb
J51 Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects
Optimal Central Bank Conservatism and Monopoly Trade Unions. By Helge Berger, Carsten Hefeker, and Ronnie Schöb
L INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION
L1 Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
L13 Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
Financial Reforms and Interest Rate Spreads in the Commercial Banking System in Malawi. By Montfort Mlachila and Ephraim W. Chirwa
L16 Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics
In Finance, Size Matters. By Biagio Bossone and Jong-Kun Lee
L3 Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise
The IMF and the Global Spread of Privatization. By Nancy Brune, Geoffrey Garrett, and Bruce Kogut
L32 Public Enterprises
Singapore Inc. versus the Private Sector: Are Government-Linked Companies Different? By Carlos D. Ramírez and Ling Hui Tan
L33 Boundaries of Public and Private Enterprise; Privatization; Contracting Out
Singapore Inc. versus the Private Sector: Are Government-Linked Companies Different? By Carlos D. Ramírez and Ling Hui Tan
L6 Industry Studies: Manufacturing
L60 General
Export Orientation and Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. By Taye Mengistae and Catherine Pattillo
0 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, AND GROWTH
01 Economic Development
011 Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
Higher or Basic Education? The Composition of Human Capital and Economic Development. By Rodney Ramcharan
012 Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
Export Orientation and Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. By Taye Mengistae and Catherine Pattillo
O4 Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
040 General
The Persistence of Corruption and Slow Economic Growth. By Paolo Mauro
041 One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
Higher or Basic Education? The Composition of Human Capital and Economic Development. By Rodney Ramcharan
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Design: Luisa Menjivar-Macdonald and Sanaa Elaroussi