Volume 49 Index

This paper empirically investigates the monetary impact of banking crises in Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, and Uruguay during 1975–98. Cointegration analysis and error correction modeling are used to research two issues: (i) whether money demand stability is threatened by banking crises; and (ii) whether crises lead to structural breaks in the relation between monetary indicators and prices. Overall, no systematic evidence that banking crises cause money demand instability is found. The paper also analyzes inflation targeting in the context of the IMF-supported adjustment programs.

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the monetary impact of banking crises in Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, and Uruguay during 1975–98. Cointegration analysis and error correction modeling are used to research two issues: (i) whether money demand stability is threatened by banking crises; and (ii) whether crises lead to structural breaks in the relation between monetary indicators and prices. Overall, no systematic evidence that banking crises cause money demand instability is found. The paper also analyzes inflation targeting in the context of the IMF-supported adjustment programs.

Volume 49 (2002) comprises three issues, as follows

No. 1, 1–153

No. 2, 155–266

No. 3, 267–507

Authors

Blejer, Mario I., Alfredo M. Leone, Pau Rabanal, and Gerd Schwartz. Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs 313

Cashin, Paul, and C. John McDermott. The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability 175

Cerra, Valerie, and Sweta Chaman Saxena. What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India? 395

Chami, Ralph, and Connel Fullenkamp. The Optimal Subsidy to Private Transfers Under Moral Hazard 242

Choi, Woon Gyu. The Inverted Fisher Hypothesis: Inflation Forecastability and Asset Substitution 212

Chong, Alberto, and Luisa Zanforlin. Technology and Epidemics 426

Dayal-Gulati, Anuradha, and Aasim M. Husain. Centripetal Forces in China’s Economic Takeoff 364

Diebold, Francis X. Symposium on Forecasting Performance: An Introduction 1

Dolinskaya, Irina. Explaining Russia’s Output Collapse 155

Flood, Robert P., and Andrew K. Rose. Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis 252

Fullenkamp, Connel, and Ralph Chami. The Optimal Subsidy to Private Transfers Under Moral Hazard 242

Gallo, Giampiero M., Clive W.J. Granger, and Yongil Jeon. Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets 4

Granger, Clive W.J., Giampiero M. Gallo, and Yongil Jeon. Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets 4

Heijdra, Ben J., and Jenny E. Ligthart. Tax Policy, the Macroeconomy, and Intergenerational Distribution 106

Husain, Aasim M., and Anuradha Dayal-Gulati. Centripetal Forces in China’s Economic Takeoff 364

Jeon, Yongil, Giampiero M. Gallo, and Clive W.J. Granger. Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets 4

Juhn, Grace, and Prakash Loungani. Further Cross-Country Evidence on the Accuracy of the Private Sector’s Output Forecasts 49

Lehmann, Alexander. The Distribution of Fixed Capital in the Multinational Firm 136

Leone, Alfredo M., Mario I. Blejer, Pau Rabanal, and Gerd Schwartz. Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs 313

Ligthart, Jenny E., and Ben J. Heijdra. Tax Policy, the Macroeconomy, and Intergenerational Distribution 106

Loungani, Prakash, and Grace Juhn. Further Cross-Country Evidence on the Accuracy of the Private Sector’s Output Forecasts 49

Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad. The Impact of Banking Crises on Money Demand and Price Stability 267

McDermott, C. John, and Paul Cashin. The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability 175

Musso, Alberto, and Steven Phillips. Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs 22

Phillips, Steven, and Alberto Mussa. Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs 22

Prasad, Eswar S. Wage Inequality in the United Kingdom, 1975–99 339

Rabanal, Pau, Mario I. Blejer, Alfredo M. Leone, and Gerd Schwartz. Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs 313

Rogoff, Kenneth, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer. Bankruptcy Procedures for Sovereigns: A History of Ideas, 1976–2001 470

Ruge-Murciá, Francisco J. A Prudent Central Banker 456

Sab, Randa, and Stephen C. Smith. Human Capital Convergence: A Joint Estimation Approach 200

Sarno, Lucio, and Mark P. Taylor. Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate 65

Saxena, Sweta Chaman, and Valerie Cerra. What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India? 395

Schwartz, Gerd, Mario I. Blejer, Alfredo M. Leone, and Pau Rabanal. Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs 313

Sløk, Torsten. Money Demand in Mongolia: A Panel Data Analysis 128

Smith, Stephen C, and Randa Sab. Human Capital Convergence: A Joint Estimation Approach 200

Taylor, Mark P., and Lucio Sarno. Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate 65

Zanforlin, Luisa, and Alberto Chong. Technology and Epidemics 426

Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, and Kenneth Rogoff. Bankruptcy Procedures for Sovereigns: A History of Ideas, 1976–2001 470

Titles

Bankruptcy Procedures for Sovereigns: A History of Ideas, 1976–2001. By Kenneth Rogoff and Jeromin Zettelmeyer 470

Centripetal Forces in China’s Economic Takeoff. By Anuradha Dayal-Gulati and Aasim M. Husain 364

Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs. By Alberto Musso and Steven Phillips 22

Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets. By Giampiero M. Gallo, Clive W.J. Granger, and Yongil Jeon 4

The Distribution of Fixed Capital in the Multinational Firm. By Alexander Lehmann 136

Explaining Russia’s Output Collapse. By Irina Dolinskaya 155

Further Cross-Country Evidence on the Accuracy of the Private Sector’s Output Forecasts. By Grace Juhn and Prakash Loungani 49

Human Capital Convergence: A Joint Estimation Approach. By Randa Sab and Stephen C. Smith 200

The Impact of Banking Crises on Money Demand and Price Stability. By Maria Soledad Martinez Peria 267

Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs. By Mario I. Blejer, Alfredo M. Leone, Pau Rabanal, and Gerd Schwartz 313

The Inverted Fisher Hypothesis: Inflation Forecastability and Asset Substitution. By Woon Gyu Choi 212

The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability. By Paul Cashin and C. John McDermott 175

Money Demand in Mongolia: A Panel Data Analysis. By Torsten Sløk 128

The Optimal Subsidy to Private Transfers Under Moral Hazard. By Ralph Chami and Connel Fullenkamp 242

A Prudent Central Banker. By Francisco J. Ruge-Murciá 456

Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate. By Lucio Sarno and Mark P. Taylor 65

Symposium on Forecasting Performance: An Introduction. By Francis X. Diebold 1

Tax Policy, the Macroeconomy, and Intergenerational Distribution. By Ben J. Heijdra and Jenny E. Ligthart 106

Technology and Epidemics. By Alberto Chong and Luisa Zanforlin 426

Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis. By Robert P. Flood and Andrew K. Rose 252

Wage Inequality in the United Kingdom, 1975–99. By Eswar S. Prasad 339

What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India? By Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena 395

Subjects

To facilitate electronic storage and retrieval of bibliographic data, IMF Staff Papers has adopted the subject classification scheme of the Journal of Economic Literature (Nashville, Tennessee).

B METHODOLOGY AND HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT

B2 History of Economic Thought Since 1925

B29 Other

  • Bankruptcy Procedures for Sovereigns: A History of Ideas, 1976–2001. By Kenneth Rogoff and Jeromin Zettelmeyer 470

B3 History of Thought: Individuals

  • Bankruptcy Procedures for Sovereigns: A History of Ideas, 1976–2001. By Kenneth Rogoff and Jeromin Zettelmeyer 470

C MATHEMATICAL AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS

C2 Econometric Models: Single Equation Models

C22 Time-Series Models

  • The Impact of Banking Crises on Money Demand and Price Stability. By Maria Soledad Martinez Peria 267

C5 Econometric Modeling

  • Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs. By Alberto Musso and Steven Phillips 22

  • Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets. By Giampiero M. Gallo, Clive W.J. Granger, and Yongil Jeon 4

  • Further Cross-Country Evidence on the Accuracy of the Private Sector’s Output Forecasts. By Grace Juhn and Prakash Loungani 49

C51 Model Construction and Estimation

  • The Inverted Fisher Hypothesis: Inflation Forecastability and Asset Substitution. By Woon Gyu Choi 212

D MICROECONOMICS

D6 Economic Welfare

D60 General

  • Tax Policy, the Macroeconomy, and Intergenerational Distribution. By Ben J. Heijdra and Jenny E. Ligthart 106

D64 Altruism

  • The Optimal Subsidy to Private Transfers Under Moral Hazard. By Ralph Chami and Connel Fullenkamp 242

D8 Information and Uncertainty

  • Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs. By Alberto Musso and Steven Phillips 242

  • Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets. By Giampiero M. Gallo, Clive W.J. Granger, and Yongil Jeon 4

  • Further Cross-Country Evidence on the Accuracy of the Private Sector’s Output Forecasts. By Grace Juhn and Prakash Loungani 49

D81 Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

  • The Distribution of Fixed Capital in the Multinational Firm. By Alexander Lehmann 136

D82 Asymetric and Private Information

  • The Optimal Subsidy to Private Transfers Under Moral Hazard. By Ralph Chami and Connel Fullenkamp 242

E MACROECONOMICS AND MONETARY ECONOMICS

E1 General Aggregative Models

E17 Forecasting and Simulation

  • Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs. By Mario I. Blejer, Alfredo M. Leone, Pau Rabanal, and Gerd Schwartz 313

E2 Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

  • Explaining Russia’s Output Collapse. By Irina Dolinskaya 155

E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages

  • Wage Inequality in the United Kingdom, 1975–99. By Eswar S. Prasad 339

E3 Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

  • Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs. By Alberto Musso and Steven Phillips 22

  • Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets. By Giampiero M. Gallo, Clive W.J. Granger, and Yongil Jeon 4

  • Further Cross-Country Evidence on the Accuracy of the Private Sector’s Output Forecasts. By Grace Juhn and Prakash Loungani 49

E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

  • The Impact of Banking Crises on Money Demand and Price Stability. By Maria Soledad Martinez Peria 267

  • Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs. By Mario I. Blejer, Alfredo M. Leone, Pau Rabanal, and Gerd Schwartz 313

  • Money Demand in Mongolia: A Panel Data Analysis. By Torsten Sløk 128

E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles

  • The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability. By Paul Cashin and C. John McDermott 175

E4 Money and Interest Rates

E41 Demand for Money

  • The Impact of Banking Crises on Money Demand and Price Stability. By Maria Soledad Martinez Peria 267

  • Money Demand in Mongolia: A Panel Data Analysis. By Torsten Sløk 128

E43 Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

  • The Inverted Fisher Hypothesis: Inflation Forecastability and Asset Substitution. By Woon Gyu Choi 212

E5 Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

E52 Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

  • Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs. By Mario I. Blejer, Alfredo M. Leone, Pau Rabanal, and Gerd Schwartz 313

E58 Central Banks and Their Policies

  • A Prudent Central Banker. By Francisco J. Ruge-Murciá 456

E6 Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, Macroeconomic Policy, and General Outlook

E61 Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

  • A Prudent Central Banker. By Francisco J. Ruge-Murciá 456

F INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

F02 International Economic Order; Economic Integration: General

  • Bankruptcy Procedures for Sovereigns: A History of Ideas, 1976–2001. By Kenneth Rogoff and Jeromin Zettelmeyer 470

F2 International Factor Movements and International Business

F21 International Investment; Long-term Capital Movements

  • The Distribution of Fixed Capital in the Multinational Firm. By Alexander Lehmann 136

F3 International Finance

F31 Foreign Exchange

  • Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate. By Lucio Sarno and Mark P. Taylor 65

  • What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India? By Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena 395

F32 Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

  • Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis. By Robert P. Flood and Andrew K. Rose 252

  • What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India? By Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena 395

F4 Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

F47 Forecasting and Simulation

  • What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India? By Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena 395

G FINANCIAL ECONOMICS

G1 General Financial Markets

G15 International Financial Markets

  • Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis. By Robert P. Flood and Andrew K. Rose 252

H PUBLIC ECONOMICS

H2 Taxation and Subsidies

H21 Efficiency; Optimal Taxation

  • The Optimal Subsidy to Private Transfers Under Moral Hazard. By Ralph Chami and Connel Fullenkamp 242

H23 Externalities; Redistributive Effects

  • Tax Policy, the Macroeconomy, and Intergenerational Distribution. By Ben J. Heijdra and Jenny E. Ligthart 106

H6 National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

H63 Debt; Debt Management

  • Tax Policy, the Macroeconomy, and Intergenerational Distribution. By Ben J. Heijdra and Jenny E. Ligthart 106

I HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE

I1 Health

I19 Other

  • Human Capital Convergence: A Joint Estimation Approach. By Randa Sab and Stephen C. Smith 200

J LABOR AND DEMOGRAPHIC ECONOMICS

J2 Time Allocation, Work Behavior, and Employment Determination

J24 Human Capital Formation; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

  • Human Capital Convergence: A Joint Estimation Approach. By Randa Sab and Stephen C. Smith 200

J3 Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

J31 Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials by Skill, Training, Occupation, etc.

  • Wage Inequality in the United Kingdom, 1975–99. By Eswar S. Prasad 339

O ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, AND GROWTH

O1 Economic Development

  • Technology and Epidemics. By Alberto Chong and Luisa Zanforlin 426

O11 Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

  • Centripetal Forces in China’s Economic Takeoff. By Anuradha Dayal-Gulati and Aasim M. Husain 364

O15 Human Resources; Income Distribution; Migration

  • Human Capital Convergence: A Joint Estimation Approach. By Randa Sab and Stephen C. Smith 200

O18 Regional, Urban, and Rural Analyses

  • Centripetal Forces in China’s Economic Takeoff. By Anuradha Dayal-Gulati and Aasim M. Husain 364

O3 Technological Change

O39 Other

  • Technology and Epidemics. By Alberto Chong and Luisa Zanforlin 426

O4 Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

  • Centripetal Forces in China’s Economic Takeoff. By Anuradha Dayal-Gulati and Aasim M. Husain 364

  • Explaining Russia’s Output Collapse. By Irina Dolinskaya 155

O40 General

  • Human Capital Convergence: A Joint Estimation Approach. By Randa Sab and Stephen C. Smith 200

  • Technology and Epidemics. By Alberto Chong and Luisa Zanforlin 426

O5 Economywide Country Studies

O53 Asia including Middle East

  • Money Demand in Mongolia: A Panel Data Analysis. By Torsten Sløk 128

P ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

P2 Socialist Systems

  • Explaining Russia’s Output Collapse. By Irina Dolinskaya 155

P24 Income Measurement and Growth

  • Money Demand in Mongolia: A Panel Data Analysis. By Torsten Sløk 128

Q AGRICULTURAL AND NATURAL RESOURCE ECONOMICS

Q1 Agriculture

Q11 Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

  • The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability. By Paul Cashin and C. John McDermott 175

In statistical matter throughout this issue,

  • dots (…) indicate that the data are not available;

  • a dash (—) indicates that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist;

  • a single dot (.) indicates decimals;

  • a comma (,) separates thousands and millions;

  • “billion” means a thousand million; and “trillion” means a thousand billion;

  • a short dash (–) is used between years or months (for example, 1998–99 or January-June) to indicate a total of the years or months inclusive of the beginning and ending years or months;

  • a slash (/) is used between years (for example, 1998/99) to indicate a fiscal year or a crop year; and

  • components of tables may not add to totals shown because of rounding.

The term “country,” as used in this publication, may not refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice; the term may also cover some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained and provided internationally on a separate and independent basis.

Design: Luisa Menjivar-Macdonald and Sanaa Elaroussi

New from International Monetary Fund

The Baltic Countries: Medium-Term Fiscal Issues Related to EU and NATO Accession

by Johannes Mueller, Christian Beddies, Robert Burgess, Vitali Kramarenko, and Joannes Mongardini

Ten years after regaining independence, the Baltic countries—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—are expected to be invited to join the European Union (EU) and NATO in 2004. This paper provides a macroeconomic perspective on the Baltics’ remarkable economic success to date and of the fiscal challenges that the Baltics face in joining the EU and NATO. The authors offer guidance by deriving some principles on the appropriate medium-term fiscal stance for the Baltics based on theory and empirical evidence.

No. 213. © 2002. 52 pp. $20.00 (academic rate: $17.50) ISBN: 1-58906-104-7. Stock #S213EA

Financial Soundness Indicators: Analytical Aspects and Country Practices

by V. Sundararajan, Charles Enoch, Armida San José, Paul Hilbers, Russell Krueger, Marina Moretti, and Graham Slack

The financial turmoil of the late 1990s prompted a broad search for tools and techniques for detecting and preventing financial crises, and more recent episodes of instability have highlighted the importance of continuous monitoring of financial systems as a tool for preventing crises. This paper looks at the development of measures of financial sector soundness and of methods to analyze them. The authors propose two sets of financial soundness indicators that are considered useful for periodic monitoring, and for compilation and dissemination efforts by national authorities.

No. 212. © 2002. 111 pp. $20.00 (academic rate: $17.50) ISBN: 1-58906-086-5. Stock #S212EA

Capital Account Liberalization and Financial Sector Stability

by a staff team led by Shogo Ishii and Karl Habermeier

Capital account liberalization is a complex process and its success requires proper sequencing and coordination with macroeconomic and other polices—particularly structural policies to strengthen the domestic financial system. This paper analyzes the linkages between capital account liberalization and other policies influencing financial sector stability. Drawing on country experiences, it develops an operational framework for sequencing and coordinating capital account liberalization with other policies aimed at maintaining financial sector stability.

No. 211. © 2002. 94 pp. $20.00 (academic rate: $17.50) ISBN: 1-58906-085-7. Stock #S211EA

IMF-Supported Programs in Capital Account Crises

by Atish Ghosh, Timothy Lane, Marianne Schulze-Ghattas, Aleš Bulíř, Javier Hamann, and Alex Mourmouras

This paper reviews the design of and experience with IMF-supported programs formulated in response to capital account crises in the 1990s, focusing on the experiences of eight countries: Turkey (1994), Mexico (1995), Argentina (1995), Thailand (1997), Indonesia (1997), Korea (1997), the Philippines (1997), and Brazil (1998).

No. 210. © 2002. 94 pp. $20.00 (academic rate: $17.50) ISBN: 1-58906-082-2. Stock #S210EA

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