Front Matter

CONTENTS

  • The Portfolio-Balance Model of Exchange Rates and Some Structural Estimates of the Risk Premium

    • MICHAEL P. DOOLEY and PETER ISARD

  • Agricultural Responses to Prices in Sub-Saharan African Countries

    • MARIAN E. BOND

  • Choice of Intermediate Money Target in a Deregulated and an Integrated Economy with Flexible Exchange Rates

    • VICTOR ARGY

  • Currency Substitution, Flexible Exchange Rates, and the Case for International Monetary Cooperation: Discussion of a Recent Proposal

    • FRANCO SPINELLI

  • Determining the Appropriate Levels of Exchange Rates for Developing Economies: Some Methods and Issues

    • AHSAN H. MANSUR

  • Determinants of Current Account Balances of Non-Oil Developing Countries in the 1970s: An Empirical Analysis

    • MOHSIN S. KHAN and MALCOLM D. KNIGHT

  • Oil Price Changes and Real Exchange Rate Movements Among Industrial Countries

    • ANNE K. McGUIRK

    • Summaries

    • Résumés

    • Resúmenes

VOL. 30 NO. 4

DECEMBER 1983

Front Matter Page

STAFF PAPERS

Norman K. Humphreys, Editor

Mary Ellen Lucas

Assistant Editor

Editorial Committee

Norman K. Humphreys, Chairman

Jacques R. Artus

Eduard H. Brau

Ernesto Hernández-Catá

Deena R. Khatkhate

Adalbert Knöbl

Anthony Lanyi

M. Ranji P. Salgado

Stephen A. Silard

Alan A. Tait

From the Foreword to the first issue:

“Among the responsibilities of the International Monetary Fund, as set forth in the Articles of Agreement, is the obligation to ‘act as a center for the collection and exchange of information on monetary and financial problems,’ and thereby to facilitate ‘the preparation of studies designed to assist members in developing policies which further the purposes of the Fund.’ The publications of the Fund are one way in which this responsibility is discharged.

“Through the publication of Staff Papers, the Fund is making available some of the work of members of its staff. The Fund believes that these papers will be found helpful by government officials, by professional economists, and by others concerned with monetary and financial problems. Much of what is now presented is quite provisional. On some international monetary problems, final and definitive views are scarcely to be expected in the near future, and several alternative, or even conflicting, approaches may profitably be explored. The views presented in these papers are not, therefore, to be interpreted as necessarily indicating the position of the Executive Board or of the officials of the Fund.”

The authors of the papers in this issue have received considerable assistance from their colleagues on the staff of the Fund. This general statement of indebtedness may be accepted in place of a detailed list of acknowledgments.

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Publications Unit

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Washington, D.C. 20431 U.S.A.

EDITOR’S NOTE

The Editor invites from contributors outside the Fund brief comments (not more than 1,000 words) on published articles in Staff Papers. These comments should be addressed to the Editor, who will forward them to the author of the original article for reply. Both the comments and the reply will be published in the same issue of Staff Papers.

International Standard Serial Number: ISSN 0020–8027

Contents of Volume 30

Volume 30 (1983) consists of four issues, as follows:

March, pages 1–222

June, pages 223–459

September, pages 461–681

December, pages 683–902

English, French, and Spanish summaries appear at the end of each issue (March, pages 212–22; June, pages 445–59; September, pages 670–81; December, pages 885–902). The French and Spanish summaries are listed by title, beginning on pages vi and vii, respectively.

Authors

  • Argy, Victor. Choice of Intermediate Money Target in a Deregulated and an Integrated Economy with Flexible Exchange Rates

  • Arriazu, Ricardo H. Policy Interdependence from a Latin American Perspective

  • Bond, Marian E. Agricultural Responses to Prices in Sub-Saharan African Countries

  • Boughton, James M. Conditions for an Active Exchange Rate Policy with a Predetermined Monetary Target

  • Branson, William H. Economic Structure and Policy for External Balance

  • Buiter, Willem H. Measurement of the Public Sector Deficit and Its Implications for Policy Evaluation and Design

  • Callier, Philippe. The SDR as a Means of Payment: A Comment on Coats

  • Coats, Warren L., Jr. The SDR as a Means of Payment: Reply to Comments by van den Boogaerde, Callier, and Kenen

  • Collyns, Charles. On the Monetary Analysis of an Open Economy

  • Dooley, Michael P., and Peter Isard. The Portfolio-Balance Model of Exchange Rates and Some Structural Estimates of the Risk Premium

  • Dornbusch, Rudiger. Flexible Exchange Rates and Interdependence

  • Evans, Owen. Social Security and Household Saving in the United States: A Re-Examination

  • Isard, Peter, and Michael P. Dooley. The Portfolio-Balance Model of Exchange Rates and Some Structural Estimates of the Risk Premium

  • Kenen, Peter B. The SDR as a Means of Payment: A Comment on Coats

  • Khan, Mohsin S., and Malcolm D. Knight. Determinants of Current Account Balances of Non-Oil Developing Countries in the 1970s: An Empirical Analysis

  • Khan, Mohsin S., and Roberto Zahler. The Macroeconomic Effects of Changes in Barriers to Trade and Capital Flows: A Simulation Analysis

  • Knight, Malcolm D., and Mohsin S. Khan. Determinants of Current Account Balances of Non-Oil Developing Countries in the 1970s: An Empirical Analysis

  • McGuirk, Anne K. Oil Price Changes and Real Exchange Rate Movements Among Industrial Countries

  • Maciejewski, Edouard B. “Real” Effective Exchange Rate Indices: A Re-Examination of the Major Conceptual and Methodological Issues

  • Mansur, Ahsan H. Determining the Appropriate Levels of Exchange Rates for Developing Economies: Some Methods and Issues

  • Mathieson, Donald J. Estimating Models of Financial Market Behavior During Periods of Extensive Structural Reform: The Experience of Chile

  • Penati, Alessandro. Expansionary Fiscal Policy and the Exchange Rate: A Review

  • Salda, Anne C.M. The International Monetary Fund, 1982: A Selected Bibliography

  • Shoven, John B. Applied General-Equilibrium Tax Modeling

  • Spencer, Grant H. Real Exchange Rate Adjustment to Exogenous Terms of Trade Shocks

  • Spinelli, Franco. Currency Substitution, Flexible Exchange Rates, and the Case for International Monetary Cooperation: Discussion of a Recent Proposal

  • Swoboda, Alexander K. Exchange Rate Regimes and U.S.-European Policy Interdependence

  • Tanzi, Vito. The Underground Economy in the United States: Annual Estimates, 1930–80

  • van den Boogaerde, Pierre R. The SDR as a Means of Payment: A Comment on Coats

  • Zahler, Roberto, and Mohsin S. Khan. The Macroeconomic Effects of Changes in Barriers to Trade and Capital Flows: A Simulation Analysis

Titles

  • Agricultural Responses to Prices in Sub-Saharan African Countries. By Marian E. Bond

  • Applied General-Equilibrium Tax Modeling. By John B. Shoven

  • Choice of Intermediate Money Target in a Deregulated and an Integrated Economy with Flexible Exchange Rates. By Victor Argy

  • Conditions for an Active Exchange Rate Policy with a Predetermined Monetary Target. By James M. Boughton

  • Currency Substitution, Flexible Exchange Rates, and the Case for International Monetary Cooperation: Discussion of a Recent Proposal. By Franco Spinelli

  • Determinants of Current Account Balances of Non-Oil Developing Countries in the 1970s: An Empirical Analysis. By Mohsin S. Khan and Malcolm D. Knight

  • Determining the Appropriate Levels of Exchange Rates for Developing Economies: Some Methods and Issues. By Ahsan H. Mansur

  • Economic Structure and Policy for External Balance. By William H. Branson

  • Estimating Models of Financial Market Behavior During Periods of Extensive Structural Reform: The Experience of Chile. By Donald J. Mathieson

  • Exchange Rate Regimes and U.S.-European Policy Interdependence. By Alexander K. Swoboda

  • Expansionary Fiscal Policy and the Exchange Rate: A Review. By Alessandro Penati

  • Flexible Exchange Rates and Interdependence. By Rudiger Dornbusch

  • The International Monetary Fund, 1982: A Selected Bibliography. By Anne C.M. Salda

  • The Macroeconomic Effects of Changes in Barriers to Trade and Capital Flows: A Simulation Analysis. By Mohsin S. Khan and Roberto Zahler

  • Measurement of the Public Sector Deficit and Its Implications for Policy Evaluation and Design. By Willem H. Buiter

  • Oil Price Changes and Real Exchange Rate Movements Among Industrial Countries. By Anne K. McGuirk

  • On the Monetary Analysis of an Open Economy. By Charles Collyns

  • Panel Discussion on the Southern Cone

  • Policy Interdependence from a Latin American Perspective. By Ricardo H. Arriazu

  • The Portfolio-Balance Model of Exchange Rates and Some Structural Estimates of the Risk Premium. By Michael P. Dooley and Peter Isard

  • “Real” Effective Exchange Rate Indices: A Re-Examination of the Major Conceptual and Methodological Issues. By Edouard B. Maciejewski

  • Real Exchange Rate Adjustment to Exogenous Terms of Trade Shocks. By Grant H. Spencer

  • Social Security and Household Saving in the United States: A Re-Examination. By Owen Evans

  • The SDR as a Means of Payment: A Comment on Coats. By Pierre R. van den Boogaerde

  • The SDR as a Means of Payment: A Comment on Coats. By Philippe Callier

  • The SDR as a Means of Payment: A Comment on Coats. By Peter B. Kenen

  • The SDR as a Means of Payment: Reply to Comments by van den Boogaerde, Callier, and Kenen. By Warren L. Coats, Jr.

  • The Underground Economy in the United States: Annual Estimates, 1930–80. By Vito Tanzi

Résumés

  • Ajustement du taux de change réel aux chocs exogénes subis par les termes de l’èchange

  • Analyse empirique des facteurs déterminant le solde des transactions cou-rantes des pays en développement non pétroliers dans les années 70

  • Analyse monétaire d’une économie ouverte

  • Choix d’un objectif monétaire intermédiaire dans une économie non réglementée et intégrée en régime de taux de change flexibles

  • Comment déterminer le taux de change approprié pour un pays en développement : quelques méthodes et problèmes d’analyse

  • Conditions nécessaires à une politique de taux de change active, avec objectifs monétaires prédéterminés

  • L’économie clandestine aux Etats-Unis : estimations annuelles, 1930–80

  • Effets macroéconomiques des modifications apportées aux obstacles aux échanges commerciaux et aux mouvements de capitaux : analyse de simulation

  • Estimation de modèles du comportement du marché financier en périodes de réformes structurelles généralisées : l’expérience du Chili

  • Les indices de taux de change effectifs “réels” : un réexamen des principales questions conceptuelles et méthodologiques

  • Interdépendance de la politique économique dans une perspective latinoaméricaine

  • Mesure du déficit du secteur public et ses implications pour l’évaluation et l’élaboration de la politique économique

  • Modèle d’équilibre de portefeuilles appliqué aux taux de change et certaines estimations (structurelles) de la prime de risque

  • Modeles d’équilibre général appliqués incorporant la fiscalité

  • Politique budgétaire expansionniste et taux de change : une analyse

  • Réactions du secteur agricole aux prix en Afrique au sud du Sahara

  • Régimes de taux de change et interdépendance des politiques économiques en Europe et aux Etats-Unis

  • Sécurité sociale et épargne des ménages aux Etats-Unis — un réexamen

  • Structure économique et politique d’équilibre extérieur

  • Substitution de monnaies, taux de change flexibles et arguments en faveur de la coopération monétaire internationale : examen d’une récente proposition

  • Taux de change flexibles et interdépendance

  • Variations de prix du pétrole et mouvements du taux de change réel entre les pays industriéis

Resúmenes

  • Ajuste del tipo de cambio real a las conmociones exógenas de la relación de intercambio

  • Del análisis monetario de una economía abierta

  • Condiciones para una política activa de tipo de cambio con un objetivo monetario predeterminado

  • Determinación del nivel apropriado para los tipos de cambio de las economías en desarrollo: Algunos métodos y problemas

  • Determinantes de las balanzas en cuenta corriente de los países en desarrollo no petroleros en los años setenta: Análisis empírico

  • La “economía subterránea” de Estados Unidos: Estimaciones anuales, 1930–80

  • Efectos macroeconómicos de cambios en las barreras al comercio y al movimientos de capitales: Un modelo de simulación

  • Elección de un objetivo monetario intermedio en una economía desreglamentada y en una economía integrada con tipos de cambio flexibles

  • La estimación de modelos de comportamiento del mercado financiero durante períodos de reforma estructural amplia: La experiencia de Chile

  • Función de la estructura y política económicas en el equilibrio de los pagos

  • Indices de tipos de cambio efectivos “reales”: Reconsideración de los principales aspectos conceptuales y metodológicos

  • Interdependencia de las políticas económicas de los países latinoamericanos

  • Medición del déficit del sector público e implicaciones para la evaluación y formulación de ciertas políticas

  • El modelo de equilibrio de cartera para los tipos de cambio y algunas estimaciones estructurales de la prima de riesgo

  • Modelos tributarios aplicados de equilibrio general

  • Políticas fiscales expansionistas y el tipo de cambio: Un examen de la cuestión

  • Reacciones de la agricultura ante los precios en los países del Africa al sur del Sahara

  • Régimen cambiario e interdependencia europeo-estadounidense en cuanto a sus medidas de política

  • Seguridad social y ahorro familiar en Estados Unidos: Un nuevo examen

  • Sustitución de monedas, tipos de cambio flexibles y argumentos en favor de la cooperación monetaria internacional: Discusión de una propuesta reciente

  • Tipos de cambio flexibles e interdependencia

  • Las variaciones del precio del petróleo y las del tipo de cambio real de los países industriales

Subject Index

(For scheme of classification, see Index to Volumes 1–27, page 75.)

  • A. International Monetary Fund

    • 4. Bibliography

      • The International Monetary Fund, 1982: A Selected Bibliography. By Anne C.M. Salda

  • B. Balance of Payments

    • 1. General Analysis

      • Economic Structure and Policy for External Balance. By William H. Branson

      • Policy Interdependence from a Latin American Perspective. By Ricardo H. Arriazu

      • Panel Discussion on the Southern Cone

      • Determinants of Current Account Balances of Non-Oil Developing Countries in the 1970s: An Empirical Analysis. By Mohsin S. Khan and Malcolm D. Knight

    • 2. Country Studies

      • Panel Discussion on the Southern Cone

    • 3. International Capital Movements

      • a. General

        • The Macroeconomic Effects of Changes in Barriers to Trade and Capital Flows: A Simulation Analysis. By Mohsin S. Khan and Roberto Zahler

        • The Portfolio-Balance Model of Exchange Rates and Some Structural Estimates of the Risk Premium. By Michael P. Dooley and Peter Isard

  • C. International Trade

    • 1. International Studies

      • The Macroeconomic Effects of Changes in Barriers to Trade and Capital Flows: A Simulation Analysis. By Mohsin S. Khan and Roberto Zahler

      • Determinants of Current Account Balances of Non-Oil Developing Countries in the 1970s: An Empirical Analysis. By Mohsin S. Khan and Malcolm D. Knight

      • Oil Price Changes and Real Exchange Rate Movements Among Industrial Countries. By Anne K. McGuirk

    • 2. Primary Commodity Studies

      • Agricultural Responses to Prices in Sub-Saharan African Countries. By Marian E. Bond

  • E. Exchange Rates

    • 1. Devaluation and Revaluation

      • Real Exchange Rate Adjustment to Exogenous Terms of Trade Shocks. By Grant H. Spencer

    • 2. Flexible Rates

      • Flexible Exchange Rates and Interdependence. By Rudiger Dornbusch

      • Exchange Rate Regimes and U.S.-European Policy Interdependence. By Alexander K. Swoboda

      • Policy Interdependence from a Latin American Perspective. By Ricardo H. Arriazu

      • Conditions for an Active Exchange Rate Policy with a Predetermined Monetary Target. By James M. Boughton

      • Expansionary Fiscal Policy and the Exchange Rate: A Review. By Alessandro Penati

      • The Portfolio-Balance Model of Exchange Rates and Some Structural Estimates of the Risk Premium. By Michael P. Dooley and Peter Isard

    • 4. Effective Rates

      • “Real” Effective Exchange Rate Indices: A Re-Examination of the Major Conceptual and Methodological Issues. By Edouard B. Maciejewski

      • Determining the Appropriate Levels of Exchange Rates for Developing Economies: Some Methods and Issues. By Ahsan H. Mansur

      • Oil Price Changes and Real Exchange Rate Movements Among Industrial Countries. By Anne K. McGuirk

    • 6. Country Studies

      • Exchange Rate Regimes and U.S.-European Policy Interdependence. By Alexander K. Swoboda

  • F. Monetary Systems

    • 1. General Analysis

      • On the Monetary Analysis of an Open Economy. By Charles Collyns

      • Choice of Intermediate Money Target in a Deregulated and an Integrated Economy with Flexible Exchange Rates. By Victor Argy

    • 2. International Liquidity

      • The SDR as a Means of Payment: A Comment on Coats. By Pierre R. van den Boogaerde

      • The SDR as a Means of Payment: A Comment on Coats. By Philippe Callier

      • The SDR as a Means of Payment: A Comment on Coats. By Peter B. Kenen

      • The SDR as a Means of Payment: Reply to Comments by van den Boogaerde, Callier, and Kenen. By Warren L. Coats, Jr.

  • G. Monetary Analysis

    • 1. General Analysis

      • Currency Substitution, Flexible Exchange Rates, and the Case for International Monetary Cooperation: Discussion of a Recent Proposal. By Franco Spinelli

    • 2. Empirical Studies

      • Estimating Models of Financial Market Behavior During Periods of Extensive Structural Reform: The Experience of Chile. By Donald J. Mathieson

  • I. Fiscal Analysis and Policy, and Public Finance

    • 1. Fiscal Analysis

      • a. General Analysis

        • Applied General-Equilibrium Tax Modeling. By John B. Shoven

      • b. Country Studies

        • The Underground Economy in the United States: Annual Estimates, 1930–80. By Vito Tanzi

        • Social Security and Household Saving in the United States: A Re-Examination. By Owen Evans

    • 2. Government Expenditure and Budgeting

      • a. General Analysis

        • Measurement of the Public Sector Deficit and Its Implications for Policy Evaluation and Design. By Willem H. Buiter

Front Matter Page

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

STAFF PAPERS

Vol. 30 No. 4

DECEMBER 1983