CONTENTS
Stabilization Programs in Developing Countries: A Formal Framework
mohsin s. khan and malcolm d. knight
Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries: Some Policy Considerations
andrew d. crockett
Demand Management and Exchange Rate Policy: The Italian Experience
giuseppe tullio
Fiscal Proxies for Devaluation: A General Review
john f. laker
A Survey of Measures of Capacity Utilization
lawrence j. christiano
Effectiveness of Exchange Rate Policy for Trade Account Adjustment
alfred steinherr
Comment
alan rabin and leila j. pratt
Reply
h. robert heller
Summaries
Résumés
Resúmenes
STAFF PAPERS
Norman K. Humphreys, Editor
Mary Ellen Lucas
Assistant Editor
Editorial Committee
Norman K. Humphreys, Chairman
Jacques R. Artus
Sterie T. Beza
Eduard H. Brau
Adalbert Knöbl
Anthony Lanyi
Ichiro Otani
Rose S. Porras
Brock K. Short
Alan A. Tait
From the Foreword to the first issue:
“Among the responsibilities of the International Monetary Fund, as set forth in the Articles of Agreement, is the obligation to ‘act as a center for the collection and exchange of information on monetary and financial problems,’ and thereby to facilitate ‘the preparation of studies designed to assist members in developing policies which further the purposes of the Fund.’ The publications of the Fund are one way in which this responsibility is discharged.
“Through the publication of Staff Papers, the Fund is making available some of the work of members of its staff. The Fund believes that these papers will be found helpful by government officials, by professional economists, and by others concerned with monetary and financial problems. Much of what is now presented is quite provisional. On some international monetary problems, final and definitive views are scarcely to be expected in the near future, and several alternative, or even conflicting, approaches may profitably be explored. The views presented in these papers are not, therefore, to be interpreted as necessarily indicating the position of the Executive Board or of the officials of the Fund.”
The authors of the papers in this issue have received considerable assistance from their colleagues on the staff of the Fund. This general statement of indebtedness may be accepted in place of a detailed list of acknowledgments.
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International Standard Serial Number: ISSN 0020-8027
Contents of Volume 28
Volume 28 (1981) consists of four issues, as follows:
March, pages 1–247
June, pages 249–450
September, pages 451–651
December, pages 653–829
English, French, and Spanish summaries appear at the end of each issue (March, pages 234–47; June, pages 437–50; September, pages 635–51; and December, pages 816–29). The French and Spanish summaries are listed by title on pages vi and vii, respectively.
Authors
Artus, Jacques R., Monetary Stabilization With and Without Government Credibility
Artus, Jacques R., and Anne Kenny McGuirk, A Revised Version of the Multilateral Exchange Rate Model
Blejer, Mario I., and Donald J. Mathieson, The Preannouncement of Exchange Rate Changes as a Stabilization Instrument
Christiano, Lawrence J., A Survey of Measures of Capacity Utilization
Crockett, Andrew D., Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries: Some Policy Considerations
DeRosa, Dean A., and Morris Goldstein, Import Discipline in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector
Donovan, Donal J., Real Responses Associated with Exchange Rate Action in Selected Upper Credit Tranche Stabilization Programs
Feltenstein, Andrew, A General-Equilibrium Approach to the Analysis of Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Floyd, Robert H., Equivalence of Product Tax Changes and Public Enterprise Price Changes
Genberg, Hans, Effects of Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market
Gold, Joseph, The Fund Agreement in the Courts—XVI
Gold, Joseph, The Fund Agreement in the Courts—XVII
Goldsbrough, David J., International Trade of Multinational Corporations and Its Responsiveness to Changes in Aggregate Demand and Relative Prices
Goldstein, Morris, and Dean A. DeRosa, Import Discipline in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector
Goode, Richard, Some Economic Aspects of Tax Administration
Heller, H. Robert, International Reserves and World-Wide Inflation: Further Analysis
Heller, Peter S., Testing the Impact of Value-Added and Global Income Tax Reforms on Korean Tax Incidence in 1976: An Input-Output and Sensitivity Analysis
Khan, Mohsin, S., and Malcolm D. Knight, Stabilization Programs in Developing Countries: A Formal Framework
Knight, Malcolm D., and Mohsin S. Khan, Stabilization Programs in Developing Countries: A Formal Framework
Laker, John F., Fiscal Proxies for Devaluation: A General Review
Mathieson, Donald J., and Mario I. Blejer, The Preannouncement of Exchange Rate Changes as a Stabilization Instrument
McGuirk, Anne Kenny, and Jacques R. Artus, A Revised Version of the Multilateral Exchange Rate Model
Murphy, Robert G., and George M. von Furstenberg, An Analysis of Factors Influencing the Level of SDR Holdings in Non-Oil Developing Countries
Otani, Ichiro, and Siddharth Tiwari, Capital Controls and Interest Rate Parity: The Japanese Experience, 1978-81
Pratt, Leila J., and Alan Rabin, A Note on Heller’s Use of Regression Analysis
Rabin, Alan, and Leila J. Pratt, A Note on Heller’s Use of Regression Analysis
Salop, Joanne, The Divergence Indicator: A Technical Note
Steinherr, Alfred, Effectiveness of Exchange Rate Policy for Trade Account Adjustment
Tiwari, Siddharth, and Ichiro Otani, Capital Controls and Interest Rate Parity: The Japanese Experience 1978-81
Tullio, Giuseppe, Demand Management and Exchange Rate Policy: The Italian Experience
von Furstenberg, George M., Incentives for International Currency Diversification by U.S. Financial Investors
von Furstenberg, George M., and Robert G. Murphy, An Analysis of Factors Influencing the Level of SDR Holdings in Non-Oil Developing Countries
White, William H., The Case For and Against “Disequilibrium” Money
Titles
An Analysis of Factors Influencing the Level of SDR Holdings in Non Oil Developing Countries. By Robert G. Murphy and George M. von Furstenberg
Capital Controls and Interest Rate Parity: The Japanese Experience, 1978-81. By Ichiro Otani and Siddharth Tiwari
The Case For and Against “Disequilibrium” Money. By William H. White
Demand Management and Exchange Rate Policy: The Italian Experience By Giuseppe Tullio
The Divergence Indicator. By Joanne Salop
Effectiveness of Exchange Rate Policy for Trade Account Adjustment. By Alfred Steinherr
Effects of Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market. By Hans Genberg
The Equivalence of Product Tax Changes and Public Enterprise Price Changes. By Robert H. Floyd
Fiscal Proxies for Devaluation: A General Review. By John F. Laker
The Fund Agreement in the Courts—XVI. By Joseph Gold
The Fund Agreement in the Courts—XVII. By Joseph Gold
A General-Equilibrium Approach to the Analysis of Monetary and Fiscal Policies. By Andrew Feltenstein
Import Discipline in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector. By Dean A. DeRosa and Morris Goldstein
Incentives for International Currency Diversification by U.S. Financial Investors. By George M. von Furstenberg
International Reserves and World-Wide Inflation: Further Analysis. By H. Robert Heller
International Trade of Multinational Corporations and Its Responsiveness to Changes in Aggregate Demand and Relative Prices. By David J. Goldsbrough
Monetary Stabilization With and Without Government Credibility. By Jacques R. Artus
A Note on Heller’s Use of Regression Analysis. By Alan Rabin and Leila J. Pratt
The Preannouncement of Exchange Rate Changes as a Stabilization Instrument. By Mario I. Blejer and Donald J. Mathieson
Real Responses Associated with Exchange Rate Action in Selected Upper Credit Tranche Stabilization Programs. By Donal J. Donovan
A Revised Version of the Multilateral Exchange Rate Model. By Jacques R. Artus and Anne Kenny McGuirk
Some Economic Aspects of Tax Administration. By Richard Goode
Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries: Some Policy Considerations. By Andrew D. Crockett
Stabilization Programs in Developing Countries: A Formal Framework. By Mohsin S. Khan and Malcolm D. Knight
A Survey of Measures of Capacity Utilization. By Lawrence J. Christiano
Testing the Impact of Value-Added and Global Income Tax Reforms on Korean Tax Incidence in 1976: An Input-Output and Sensitivity Analysis. By Peter S. Heller
Résumés
Analyse des facteurs qui ont une influence sur le niveau des avoirs en DTS des pays en développement non exportateurs de pétrole
Analyse des politiques monétaires et budgétaires: une approche par l’equilibre général.
L’annonce anticipée des modifications du taux de change comme instrument de stabilisation
Détermination de l’effet des réformes flscales (impôt général sur le revenu et taxe à la valeur ajoutée) sur la pression fiscale en Corée en 1976: analyse entrées-sorties et analyse de sensibilité
Discipline imposée par les importations au secteur manufacturier des Etats-Unis
Les échanges internationaux des sociétés multinationales et leur sensibilité aux variations de la demande globale et des prix relatifs
Effets de l’intervention de la banque centrale dans les marchés des changes
Efficacité de la politique en matière de taux de change pour l’adjustment du solde commercial
L’équivalence entre la modification des taxes sur les produits et le relèvement des prix des entreprises publiques
L’indicateur de divergence: note technique
Mesures de l’utilisation des capacités de production
Peut-on inciter les investisseurs financiers des Etats-Unis à diversifier la composition de leurs placements en devises?
Politique de gestion de la demande et politique de taux de change: le cas de l’Italie
Politiques de stabilisation dans les pays en développement: quelques considérations
Pour et contre un stock de monnaie en déséquilibre
Programmes de stabilisation dans les pays en développement: cadre formel
Quelques aspects économiques de l’administration fiscale
Régulation des capitaux et niveau des taux d’intérêt: le cas du Japon, 1978-81
Résultats liés à une modification du taux de change dans le cadre de programmes de stabilisation se rapportant aux tranches supérieures de crédit: l’exemple de certains pays
Stabilisation monetaire avec ou sans crédibilité gouvernementale
Les statuts du Fonds devant les tribunaux—XVI
Les statuts du Fonds devant les tribunaux—XVII.
Substituts fiscaux d’une dévaluation: étude générate
Une version révisée du modèle multilatéral de taux de change
Resúmenes
Algunos aspectos económicos de la administración de impuestos
El análisis de las politicas monetaria y fiscal basado en un modelo de equilibrio general.
Análisis de los factores que influyen en el nivel de tenencias de DEG de los países en desarrollo no petroleros
Los argumentos en pro y en contra del dinero de “desequilibrio”
El comercio internacional de las empresas multinacionales y su sensibilidad ante las variaciones de la demanda global y los precios relativos
Comprobación del efecto que las reformas tributarias del impuesto al valor agregado y el impuesto general sobre la renta tuvieron en la incidencia fiscal de Corea en 1976: Análisis de insumo-producto y de sensibilidad
Control de capitales y paridad de los tipos de interés: la experiencia de Japón,1978–81.
El Convenio del Fondo ante los tribunales—XVI
El Convenio Constitutivo del Fondo ante los tribunales—XVII
Disciplina impuesta por la importación en el sector manufacturero de Estados Unidos
Efecto de la política de tipos de cambio en el ajuste de la balanza comercial
Efectos de la intervención de los bancos centrales en los mercados de divisas
Equivalencia de las modificaciones de los impuestos sobre bienes y las modificaciones de los precios de empresas públicas
Estabilización monetaria y credibilidad del gobierno
Estudio de mediciones de utilización de la capacidad
Incentivos a la diversificación monetaria internacional por parte de los inversionistas financieros privados de Estados Unidos
El indicador de divergencia: nota técnica
El preanuncio de las modificaciones del tipo de cambio como instrumento de estabilización
Políticas de estabilización de los países en desarrollo: Algunas consideraciones de política
Políticas fiscales como alternativas a la devaluación: Consideraciones generales
Programas de estabilización en los paises en desarrollo: Un marco formal.
Regulación de la demanda y política de tipos de cambio: La experiencia italiana
Resultados reales de las medidas cambiarias adoptadas dentro del marco de algunos programas de estabilización vinculados con los tramos superiores de crédito
Versión revisada del modelo multilateral de tipos de cambio
Subject Index
(For scheme of classification, see Index to Volumes 1–27, page 75)
A. International Monetary Fund
3. Legal Implications of the Fund Agreement
The Fund Agreement in the Courts—XVI. By Joseph Gold
The Fund Agreement in the Courts—XVII. By Joseph Gold
B. Balance of Payments
1. Analysis
Stabilization Programs in Developing Countries: A Formal Framework. By Mohsin S. Khan and Malcolm D. Knight
Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries: Some Policy Considerations. By Andrew D. Crockett
Real Responses Associated with Exchange Rate Action in Selected Upper Credit Tranche Stabilization Programs. By Donal J. Donovan
C. International Trade
1. International Studies
A Revised Version of the Multilateral Exchange Rate Model. By Jacques R. Artus and Anne Kenny McGuirk
International Trade of Multinational Corporations and Its Responsiveness to Changes in Aggregate Demand and Relative Prices. By David J. Goldsbrough
3. Country Studies
Import Discipline in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector: The Evidence from Cross-Sectional Data. By Dean A. DeRosa and Morris Goldstein
E. Exchange Rates
1. Devaluation and Revaluation
Demand Management and Exchange Rate Policy: The Italian Experience. By Giuseppe Tullio
Fiscal Proxies for Devaluation: A General Review. By John F. Laker
Effectiveness of Exchange Rate Policy for Trade Account Adjustment. By Alfred Steinherr
Real Responses Associated with Exchange Rate Action in Selected Upper Credit Tranche Stabilization Programs. By Donal J. Donovan
The Preannouncement of Exchange Rate Changes as a Stabilization Instrument. By Mario I. Blejer and Donald J. Mathieson
2. Flexible Rates
Effects of Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market. By Hans Genberg
The Divergence Indicator: A Technical Note. By Joanne Salop
4. Effective Rates
A Revised Version of the Multilateral Exchange Rate Model. By Jacques R. Artus and Anne Kenny McGuirk
F. Monetary Systems
1. General Analysis
Monetary Stabilization With and Without Government Credibility. By Jacques R. Artus
2. International Liquidity
An Analysis of Factors Influencing the Level of SDR Holdings in Non-Oil Developing Countries. By Robert G. Murphy and George M. von Furstenberg
Incentives for International Currency Diversification by U.S. Financial Investors. By George M. von Furstenberg
G. Monetary Analysis
1. General Analysis
Stabilization Programs in Developing Countries: A Formal Framework. By Mohsin S. Khan and Malcolm D. Knight
Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries: Some Policy Considerations. By Andrew D. Crockett
The Case For and Against “Disequilibrium” Money. By William H. White
A General-Equilibrium Approach to the Analysis of Monetary and Fiscal Policies. By Andrew Feltenstein
2. Empirical Studies
Demand Management and Exchange Rate Policy: The Italian Experience. By Giuseppe Tullio
Capital Controls and Interest Rate Parity: The Japanese Experience, 1978-81. By Ichiro Otani and Siddharth Tiwari
H. Economic Growth, Inflation, and Business Fluctuations
1. General Analysis
A Note on Heller’s Use of Regression Analysis. By Alan Rabin and Leila J. Pratt
International Reserves and World-Wide Inflation: Further Analysis. By H. Robert Heller
Monetary Stabilization With and Without Government Credibility. By Jacques R. Artus
2. Inflation and Economic Development
A Survey of Measures of Capacity Utilization. By Lawrence J. Christiano
I. Fiscal Analysis and Policy, and Public Finance
1. Fiscal Analysis
A General-Equilibrium Approach to the Analysis of Monetary and Fiscal Policies. By Andrew Feltenstein.
4. Tax Measures
The Equivalence of Product Tax Changes and Public Enterprise Price Changes. By Robert H. Floyd
a. General Analysis
Some Economic Aspects of Tax Administration. By Richard Goode
b. Country Studies
Testing the Impact of Value-Added and Global Income Tax Reforms on Korean Tax Incidence in 1976: An Input-Output and Sensitivity Analysis. By Peter S. Heller
Front Matter Page
EDITOR’S NOTE
Beginning with this issue, the Editor invites from contributors outside the Fund brief comments (not more than 1,000 words) on published articles in Staff Papers. These comments should be addressed to the Editor, who will forward them to the author of the original article for reply. Both the comments and the reply will be published in the same issue of Staff Papers.