The definition of money

The basic decision in each case concerns the appropriate definition of the monetary holdings. The criterion for deciding on a particular definition of money involves the resolution of a prior problem: Is the relevant definition of monetary holdings already implied in the concept of credit policies for financial programing purposes, or does the appropriate definition depend upon the type of credit ceiling adopted in each case?

The issue may be decided on the basis of the observation that a given payments deficit can continue at its initial level (assuming a large enough stock of foreign exchange) only if the reduction in the privately held money stock that results from the external deficit is offset by credit created by the banking system. If the banking system remains passive, the reduction in nominal assets held by the public would presumably initiate a self-correcting process leading to an elimination of the payments deficit. Financial programs, therefore, must be concerned with all aspects of the credit-creating mechanism that potentially allow an increase in aggregate credit that exceeds any desired increase to hold monetary assets. Since the credit-creating potential of the banking system is affected—aside from actions by the monetary authorities—by the public’s asset preferences, it follows that a projection is required of the level and distribution of all monetary liabilities of the banks; that is, monetary holdings are appropriately defined as currency in circulation plus demand deposits and time and savings deposits with banks.

This conclusion is in seeming contrast to the practical necessity to project only the demand for currency under a ceiling on the net domestic assets of the central bank that is defined as including reserve deposits of commercial banks. (Equivalently, this ceiling can be expressed in residual form in terms of the balance sheet items not covered by the ceiling, i.e., as currency issue minus net foreign assets.) There is no contradiction, however, when the demand for components of monetary holdings is derived so as to be consistent with the projection of overall demand for money. An inconsistency may develop when the projection focuses exclusively on the demand for currency on the assumption that the demand for currency is purely for transactions purposes; however, such an assumption is not supported by the evidence in many countries.

The formulation of a credit program is complicated if an economy has certain financial intermediaries, such as finance companies, whose sources of financing are not already controlled. These companies can extend credit to the private sector by taking in deposits (competing with commercial banks) or by borrowing on the capital market. Thus, for a given volume of liabilities of the banking system, finance companies are enabled to extend credit as a (usually small) multiple of the initial increase in deposits with them if there is a reflow of funds to them. It may therefore be necessary in some economies to extend credit controls to financial institutions other than banks.

Stocks and flows

The projection of the demand for monetary holdings, then, involves two theoretically separate problems. One problem is whether during the period of the program the public will continue to hold the stock of money that has been accumulated in the past or whether it will be induced by changes in certain variables, such as interest rates, prices, and the degree of credit restraint, to adjust this stock to a different desired level at the existing level of income. The other problem concerns the question of the rate at which the public during the period is likely to add to its equilibrium level of stocks in response to the growth in a scale variable such as income or wealth, i.e., the flow demand for money. Of course, any observed actual change in money holdings between periods is a net composite of these two effects. In order to identify these two effects separately and with some accuracy, one needs an estimated demand for money function. Although frequently the statistical information necessary to develop such a function is lacking, this does not mean that the stock adjustment demand can safely be neglected. Indeed, it is usually the stock adjustment effect that produces a significant shift in velocity.

The problem of simultaneity

However, even when the importance of considering both stock and flow adjustments is recognized, there remains a conceptual difficulty with demand for money projections for stabilization programs. This difficulty concerns the use of single-equation projections in a situation where simultaneous-equation projections are theoretically clearly superior. The deficiency of a single-equation projection is that, by itself, it does not allow for feedback effects on the demand for money that result from the influence of the credit and other policies finally adopted on income, prices, and interest rates during the period of the program. Stated differently, the variables determining the demand for money must be assumed to be known before it can be decided what specific monetary and economic policies will be pursued. Generally, however, the demand for money will not be independent of these policies. This deficiency of a single-equation approach can be partly overcome by using an iterative projection procedure. In any case, there is in practice usually no alternative to using a single relation in projecting the demand for money. However, when a single equation is used, it should be realized that an adjustment is necessary for the expected values of those explanatory variables that are influenced by the economic policies during the period of the program. These considerations underscore the importance of avoiding a procedure in financial programing that simply makes permissible credit expansion the residual necessary to satisfy a balance sheet identity.

It now remains to identify in detail the variables that enter the demand for money function and to survey the experience of financial programs in accounting for them in practice.

The demand for money function

A general demand for money function can be represented in the following form: ⁵

where

MO*	=	desired nominal money plus quasi-money balances
Ye	=	expected nominal income
$r_m^e$	=	expected nominal rate of interest on deposits
re	=	expected nominal rate of interest on financial assets other than money
${\left(\frac{1}{P}\frac{dp}{dt}\right)}^e$	=	expected rate of change of prices
C	=	degree of credit restraint
W	=	wealth
u	=	other factors

View Table

MO*	=	desired nominal money plus quasi-money balances
Ye	=	expected nominal income
$r_m^e$	=	expected nominal rate of interest on deposits
re	=	expected nominal rate of interest on financial assets other than money
${\left(\frac{1}{P}\frac{dp}{dt}\right)}^e$	=	expected rate of change of prices
C	=	degree of credit restraint
W	=	wealth
u	=	other factors

and $\begin{array}{c}\frac{ǝM{O}^{*}}{ǝY^e}>0,\frac{ǝM{O}^{*}}{ǝr_m^e}>0,\frac{ǝM{O}^{*}}{ǝr^e}<0,\frac{ǝM{O}^{*}}{ǝ{\left(\frac{1}{P}\frac{dp}{dt}\right)}^e}\gtrless 0,\hfill \\ \frac{ǝM{O}^{*}}{ǝC}<0,\frac{ǝM{O}^{*}}{ǝW}>0,\frac{ǝM{O}^{*}}{ǝu}\gtrless 0.\hfill \end{array}$

Frequently, this function is expressed in terms of desired real money balances, in which case the income variable is replaced by expected real income.⁶ In general, stock adjustment effects are thought to be the consequence of changes in the factors affecting the cost of holding money, represented in the function by the interest rate, price, and credit restraint variables and possibly by other factors included in the u term. The flow demand is associated with changes in the scale variables, income and/or wealth. The observable actual change in money holdings as the net result of these two effects is indicated by the entire demand for money function. This function is not likely to emerge unchanged from empirical testing in any one particular country. Rather, it lists in an exhaustive manner the principal determinants of money demand that are suggested by theory and have been found statistically significant in one country or another. In a specific country it may well prove important to specify in detail some other determinant of money demand that is now included in the catchall term u in the equation. For example, in an economy with no important restrictions on international capital movements, the possibility of substitution between holdings of domestic and foreign liquid assets may have to be recognized through the inclusion of domestic/foreign yield differentials in the demand for money function.

In addition to such specific determinants of the demand for money, the general function in actual application to short-term forecasting would also have to be expanded with respect to the existence of lags in the adjustment of actual to desired money balances, and/or in the formation of expectations. Allowance has to be made, in theory, for the first type of lag, since only actual (not desired) money balances can be observed directly. It is then postulated that actual money holdings approach desired money holdings with some kind of lag. In addition significant lags may exist in the process by which the public adjusts its expectations regarding, for example, price changes to actual price developments. That is, in theory, the variables entering the demand for money function are those that the public expects to hold over a period of time and not the actual observed values. For the time being, however, it is assumed that the public adjusts its expectations quickly to actual developments, so that observed values of variables can be used as good approximations to expected values.

Income and wealth

The general demand for money function has always included a scale variable. Wealth or permanent income has been employed as such a variable only in research confined to a few developed economies. Most money projections for financial programs have used either expected real income or expected nominal income. When the latter was employed, the projections have sometimes neglected the possible effects on the demand for money from price expectations. The problem of properly accounting for the simultaneous determination of real and financial variables in an economy arises, in particular, when a nominal (real) income value must be chosen for a projection of the demand for liquid assets using a demand for money function.

It is usually assumed that the change in real output is known. To a large extent the change can be regarded as supply determined in the short run in many economies when no significant dislocations—policy-induced or otherwise—occur over the period. This is not to deny, however, that levels of aggregate demand (influenced by credit policies) in conjunction with degrees of capacity utilization in the economy may influence real output, even in developing economies. One can also argue that even the availability of credit enters an assumed aggregate production function as an independent variable. These considerations undoubtedly point to the desirability—and also the difficulty—of always working with a model that explicitly integrates the real and financial sectors of an economy. In the absence of such models, one has to ensure in the best possible way that the real output assumed to be known in the financial projections is not inconsistent with the financial values (credit) necessary to validate the real output assumption. When expected nominal income enters the demand for money function, an assumption must be made regarding the development of the price level over the period of the program. The behavior of the general price level over the period is partly predetermined by previous policy decisions and behavior patterns and is partly dependent upon the policies adopted over the period. It is assumed here that financial policies are aimed at containing the rise in the price level to the amount regarded inevitable on the basis of certain behavioral characteristics of the economy. Thus, financial policies in a program could aim either at stability in the rate of price level change or at a reduction in that rate.

Annual projections of the demand for money forecast the desired money stock for the end of the period but, in the absence of quarterly national income data, have little to say about the seasonal pattern of money demand and its components. This pattern, therefore, is inferred indirectly from past actual monthly (quarterly) data on currency and deposits and is superimposed on the annual projection of the stock of money. At times, varying harvest and crop conditions make it necessary to alter these seasonality patterns.

On a strict interpretation, the demand for money is viewed as a flow demand when money is related exclusively to income. Frequently, however, this assumption has proved to be empirically untenable, even though money was correlated only with income and velocity shifts were introduced ad hoc, often justified on grounds of changes in confidence. While such changes have important influences on the demand for money, the introduction of a shift in velocity more generally represents a recognition of the influence of variables other than income or wealth on the demand for money. These variables are the interest rates, the expected change in the rate of change of prices, and the degree of credit restraint—factors that represent the rate of return on money and the cost of holding money rather than other assets. It is changes in these variables that induce stock adjustment effects in the demand for money, either reinforcing or counteracting the flow demand.

Interest rates and degree of credit restraint

The effects on the demand for money of interest rates on alternative financial assets have been systematically observed in developed economies. However, in financial programs in many economies there is evidence that sharp changes in the availability of credit have an influence on the demand for money in the sense that during tight credit policies velocity tends to increase, and vice versa. This agrees with the observations made in most developed economies where the effect of tight credit policies on the demand for money is thought to be transmitted largely via the increase in interest rates on other financial assets, such as bonds, resulting from an increased supply of these securities. However, in economies where there are imperfections in financial markets, where there is no broad market for other financial assets, or where interest rate data on these assets are unreliable, the degree of credit restraint itself may be used as an approximate measure of the increased opportunity cost of holding money balances. During periods of tight credit policy the public will attempt to maintain planned expenditures by economizing on available liquid balances and by extending intersectoral nonbanking credit. Thus, the public would succeed to a limited extent in counteracting a restrictive credit policy by way of increasing velocity. In general, therefore, stabilization programs that introduce marked changes in the degree of credit restraint would have to base their demand for money projections on some short-run variation in velocity. This represents, in fact, the argument that the degree of credit restraint (measured, perhaps, by the ratio of the expansion of net bank credit to the change in current income, by the change in the rate of credit expansion, or by changes in the rediscount rate of the central bank) may enter into the demand for money function as a proxy variable for the effective opportunity cost of holding money. It also illustrates the afore-mentioned case against the wholly residual treatment of credit policies in financial programing. Another direct influence of credit policies on the demand for money results from the requirement of many commercial banks that their loan customers hold compensating balances.

The rate of interest on deposits often shows little variation in developing economies, and its effect on the demand for money therefore has generally not been observed in these countries. However, when changes in the rate of interest paid on deposits have occurred during a financial program, a significant effect on money demand has usually been observed. At times, the increase in deposit balances was very comsiderable in circumstances where “more realistic” deposit rates induced reflows of funds to the banks from unorganized credit markets. Yet, this effect was sometimes neglected in the relevant monetary projections. This is another specific case of the general problem of simultaneity in projecting the demand for money: the effects on the demand for money of the policies proposed for the period of the program cannot safely be neglected. While a reliable quantification of the effects of these types of interest rate changes on the demand for money often may be very difficult owing to the noted absence of sufficient empirical observations, the grounds for a qualitative approximation, making use of the experience in similar economies, are strong.

Changes in price levels

In general, observations on the effects of changes in the expected rate of inflation on the demand for money (other than the influence from nominal or real income) over annual periods have shown that such changes are an important explanatory factor when inflation is pronounced. Aside from the instances of habitually strong inflation, the effects of changes in the rate of price changes on the demand for money have been observed in financial programs following a currency devaluation. In this situation, if no allowance is made for the effect of the expected increase in the price level on the demand for money the result may be an overprojection of the demand for money. This has happened at times when the country in question had previously experienced a steady rate of inflation, and no influences on the demand for money could be observed from significant changes in that rate. Once again, while reliable quantification may not be possible, the case for a qualitative approximation is strong.

Time lags and repressed inflation

So far the problem of time lags has been ignored. The two principal types of lag were noted earlier. One concerns the lag involved in the adjustment of actual to desired money balances. The other lag may arise in the adjustment of expectations concerning income, prices, and interest rates to actual changes in these variables. There is disagreement on the length of the lag in adjustment of actual to desired money balances in developed economies. Most evidence for developing economies, however, indicates that actual money balances are adjusted to desired balances within a year—the period of most programs supported by the Fund. This does not mean, however, that this type of lag therefore can be ignored in practice. In many programs the incremental demand for money is projected on the assumption that actual money balances observed at the beginning of the period in fact represent desired holdings. However, many financial programs are adopted precisely because domestic credit expansion had been excessive but the excess had not yet been fully absorbed by a loss in net foreign assets—leaving a part of actual money holdings at the beginning of the program as undesired holdings still to be liquidated. Usually this occurs in times of repressed inflation (price freezes, introduction of exchange and trade restrictions); the liquidation of excess money holdings then happens when—as a result of the financial program—price controls are (partially) lifted and an import and exchange liberalization is effected. It is therefore necessary to come to a judgment in each particular case as to the extent that actual money balances at the beginning of the program can be considered desired holdings over the period, on the basis of which any incremental demand for money can be projected.

Lags in the formation of expectations are evidenced in country studies, with the general result that these lags are longer in developed economies than in developing economies, particularly concerning income expectations.⁷ Current income may therefore be a suitable approximation to expected income in most developing economies. In other countries permanent income or wealth may be more appropriate scale variables in the demand for money function. Expectations of changes in the rate of inflation appear to differ widely among countries. Such changes have been anticipated without appreciable lag in countries with a prolonged inflationary experience, owing in good part, it appears, to the signals provided by the annual adjustments in wage settlements in the public and private sectors. In countries with recent steady changes in prices, a sudden increase in one year often seems to be only partly expected but strongly influences price expectations and, accordingly, the demand for money in the next year. As noted before, this sometimes follows a currency devaluation.

Confidence, changes in exchange and trade practices, and monetization

Still other factors have a bearing on annual variations in velocity. Important among these from the point of financial programs are changes in the trade and exchange system where significant liberalizations are likely to produce initially a downward stock adjustment effect on the demand for liquid assets, which possibly is counteracted by a shift by the public from foreign exchange holdings into domestic liquid assets. This has been observed most often after a period of serious inflationary pressures. A factor often invoked—and like some others difficult to quantify with any precision—is the effect on the demand for money of changes in the public’s confidence in the political stability of the country. This factor also has often been found important in inducing the shifts between foreign exchange and domestic liquid assets just mentioned. A lack of public confidence in an overvalued currency equally can lead to such a shift in anticipation of a devaluation.

Allowance also may have to be made for the effects of monetization as well as for the effects of changes in the income distribution, if any, on the demand for money. In this latter area, changes in fiscal policy may be important. The advance of monetization in any one year is likely to depend heavily on expected variation in the activity of the nonmonetized sector. Consideration of the monetization factor is particularly important in the specification of a demand for currency function.

The projection of components of liquid assets

Until now the problem of forecasting has been discussed only for the stock of total liquid assets. However, the formulation of credit ceilings on the domestic assets of the monetary authorities, as well as the actual expansion of aggregate bank credit possible under these ceilings, depends upon the distribution of total liquid assets between currency, demand deposits, and quasi-monetary deposits. It is necessary therefore to arrive at a projection of the components of total liquid assets.

Two approaches—used in a complementary way whenever possible—are available for this purpose. Most commonly, a projection of liquidity components is obtained by applying a money/quasi-money ratio and a currency/deposit ratio to the initial projection of demand for money plus quasi-money. In this case, the projection of liquidity components is dependent upon the behavioral assumptions (forecasts) made for the money/quasi-money and the currency/deposit ratios. These ratios are a function of the asset preferences of the public and would, theoretically, have to be “explained” in terms of the same general set of variables that “explains” the demand for broad money. As a practical approximation, these ratios are usually extrapolated along their trend value, which implies, however, the assumption that no shift in velocity will occur.

The validity of this procedure frequently can be checked through the formulation and estimation of a separate demand function for currency, in addition to the one already obtained for total liquid assets. Once a separate estimate for currency is available, the demand for total deposits can be derived as a residual. If it is necessary to obtain more detail, another separate function, e.g., for demand deposits, has to be estimated. The explanatory variables for the currency demand function are drawn from the set of independent variables of the general demand for money function; these variables, of course, have a different importance and weight in currency demand functions. Care has to be taken, moreover, to account properly for the substitution possibilities between currency and deposits by including in the function the yield on substitute money components. The separate projection of currency (or other money components) can then be used to check the overall money forecast as well as the distribution implied in the trend extrapolation of money/ quasi-money and currency/deposit ratios.

Some technical problems

The foregoing discussion has listed a number of considerations that are relevant in attempts to project the demand for money in the context of financial programs. In what follows, some technical problems in forecasting are reviewed.

The use of end-of-period values or of average-period values for the money stock has no influence on the estimate of the demand for money when there are no seasonal or other variations in the demand for money over the yearly program period, as the taking of averages is an attempt to correct for such variations. If it could be assumed that only seasonal variations were present in the data, the choice of end-of-period or average-period figures for the money stock would influence only the base to which the seasonal adjustment has to be applied. The seasonality pattern, as noted earlier, is inferred indirectly from the actual monthly (quarterly) money stock data and is superimposed on the annual projection of the end-of-period or average-period stock of money. However, the averaging of figures for the money stock is distinctly preferable in all cases, since the use of end-of-period figures may strongly bias the estimates of the demand for money owing to the possible spurious variation in the money stock data on the end-of-period dates, which may have no resemblance to the regularly observed seasonal patterns.

The choice of the transformation to be applied to the variables of the demand for money function involves a problem in either statistical estimation techniques or economic theory, depending on what transformation is applied. When the transformation is applied equally to all variables in the equation—e.g., left-hand and right-hand side variables are expressed in difference or logarithmic form—the theory underlying the specification of the money demand function remains unchanged. The transformation of variables in this case is an attempt to overcome statistical problems arising from serial correlation, or it is an attempt to directly estimate elasticity coefficients. However, when a mixed transformation is used in a money demand function to be estimated—e.g., the dependent variable is expressed in difference form, whereas the independent variables remain in level form—the underlying theory of the demand for money is changed. When this change is the intended result, it may be entirely proper. In practice, the issue involved arises frequently when the change in the stock of money and quasi-money is made a function of the level of nominal GNP on the theory that changes in monetary holdings are a proxy for savings. However, recent empirical tests cast some doubt on the validity of this hypothesis. Tests applied to a sample of 21 countries show that changes in narrow money (currency plus demand deposits) are better explained by changes in income than by the level of income; they also show that changes in quasi-money are better explained by the level of income than by changes in income. This preliminary evidence does not support the hypothesis presented above, since holdings of quasi-money are frequently only a small fraction of total money holdings. Pragmatic arguments for the hypothesis on the grounds of goodness of statistical fit are not very satisfactory; statistical fit can almost always be improved by including in the regression theoretically irrelevant variables, as long as they have some accidental correlation with the dependent variable. However, in periods of stabilization policies when it is usually as important to predict variations in trend as to predict the trend itself, estimated demand for money functions are useful only when they include variables that are causally or functionally related to money demand.

The relevance of incorporating lags into the demand for money function has been mentioned earlier. When annual data are used, lags in the adjustment of actual to desired money balances probably cannot be observed, except in developed economies, since this adjustment is completed largely within one year in other economies. As noted before, a consideration of this lag may still be important when projecting the incremental demand for money after a period of excessive credit expansion. With the use of quarterly data, however, explicit lag patterns must be introduced into the function and tested. Lags in the formation of expectations within a country usually can be expected to change only slowly over time and, therefore, can be assumed constant in the estimation of the demand for money function.⁸

Résumé

Pour que les politiques de crédit adoptées dans le cadre de programmes financiers puissent donner de bons résultats, il faut que l’on puisse disposer, entre autres, d’une projection, établie avec un degré de précision raisonnable, du comportement de la vitesse de circulationrevenu de la monnaie ou, ce qui revient au même, de la demande d’encaisse au cours de la période couverte par le programme. L’auteur expose en détail le concept du financement par la liquidité qui représente pour lui l’élément de financement correspondant sur le plan monétaire aux variations imprévues du rapport monnaie/revenu au cours de la période. Lorsqu’il y a financement par la liquidité – ce qui ne se produira que si les prévisions concernant la demande d’avoirs liquides n’ont pas été établies avec suffisamment de précision – le plafond de crédit fixé dans le cadre du programme devient incompatible avec l’objectif initial de balance des paiements. Examinant un groupe de pays ayant appliqué dans le passé des programmes financiers à la suite d’un accord avec le Fonds, l’auteur montre que le financement par la liquidité a été à certains moments important quantitativement en ce sens qu’il a constitué une proportion notable de la variation réelle du crédit du système bancaire pendant la durée d’application du programme. Lorsqu’il est important, le financement par la liquidité occasionne des variations imprévues dans les avoirs extérieurs nets du système bancaire et dans le revenu nominal.

La majeure partie du document est consacrée à une étude des facteurs théoriques qui se rapportent à la projection de la demande d’avoirs liquides et à un examen des résultats obtenus par certains programmes financiers. L’auteur détermine une fonction générale de la demande de monnaie et souligne la nécessité de tenir compte à la fois de l’ajustement du stock monétaire et du flux de la demande de monnaie. L’auteur accorde aussi une attention toute particulière au problème de la simultanéité, problème qui exige que l’on tienne compte des répercussions qu’auront sur la demande de monnaie les mesures qu’on se propose d’appliquer pendant le programme. Un certain nombre de suggestions sont ensuite offertes et notamment celle de faire figurer le degré de resserrement du crédit dans la fonction de la demande de monnaie en en faisant une variable de remplacement du coût d’opportunité effectif de la détention d’encaisse dans certaines économies. Les influences des autres variables explicatives sur la demande de monnaie sont analysées en mettant surtout l’accent sur les conditions souvent réunies dans les pays qui envisagent l’adoption d’un programme financier. En conclusion, l’auteur examine certains aspects techniques des projections de la demande de monnaie.

Resumen

El éxito de la política crediticia en los programas financieros depende, entre otras cosas, de que haya una proyección bastante precisa del comportamiento de la velocidad del dinero como ingreso o, de forma equivalente, de la demanda de saldos de activos líquidos durante el período del programa. En este trabajo se elabora el concepto de la financiación de liquidez, que representa la partida de financiación que constituye el equivalente monetario de las variaciones no previstas de la razón dinero/ingreso durante el período. Cuando hay financiación de liquidez—lo cual ocurre solamente cuando las previsiones de la demanda de activos líquidos no son bastante precisas—el tope al crédito establecido en el programa ya no concuerda con la meta original de balanza de pagos. Se demuestra que, en el caso de un grupo seleccionado de países con los cuales se han concertado programas financieros en el pasado, la financiación de liquidez ha tenido a veces importancia cuantitativa, en el sentido de que ha ascendido a una proporción significativa de la variación efectiva del crédito del sistema bancario durante el período del programa. Los efectos de una financiación significativa de liquidez serán variaciones imprevistas en los activos netos del sistema bancario frente al exterior y en el ingreso nominal.

La mayor parte del estudio se dedica a un examen de las consideraciones teóricas pertinentes a la proyección de la demanda de activos líquidos, y a un examen de la experiencia obtenida con varios programas financieros. Se presenta una función general de demanda de dinero, y se subraya la importancia de considerar tanto los ajustes en el volumen de dinero guardado como en la demanda flujo. Se dedica también atención especial al problema de la simultaneidad, que hace necesario considerar los efectos que la política propuesta para el período del programa pueda tener sobre la demanda de dinero. Como resultado se sugiere, entre otras cosas, que el grado de contención del crédito puede de por sí entrar en la función de demanda de dinero como variable de aproximación del costo efectivo de oportunidad que represente el guardar dinero en ciertas economías. Se examina también la influencia de las otras variables explicativas sobre la demanda de dinero, destacando las condiciones que suelen existir cuando se preparan los programas financieros. El artículo termina con un examen de ciertos aspectos técnicos de las proyecciones de la demanda de dinero.