The appendices present material of a technical nature (of interest chiefly to economists engaged in research in this field), and also some details about the model and its application, with which it was thought undesirable to burden the text. Appendix I lists and discusses the structural equations; II presents the multipliers of the model; III gives further detail about the projections; and IV consists of a tabulation of the data used in the study and a description of the sources of the data.
Before the structural equations are presented, a general comment about the method of estimation is in order. The equations have been estimated by the ordinary (single stage) least-squares method; the problem of the so-called least-squares bias in simultaneous equation models has been ignored.38 The relative merits of various estimation methods for such models, when the number of observations is small, are still a matter of dispute.39 Briefly, it is believed that the single stage least-squares method may give coefficient estimates which, though biased, have a smaller variance around their (biased) expected value than some of the principal alternative estimation methods.40The smaller variance of the parameter estimates compensates to some extent for the undesirable property of bias. At any rate, it is unlikely that the least-squares bias is large enough to invalidate the general conclusions drawn from the model, or to cast substantial additional doubt on the projections, given the considerable uncertainty surrounding the assumptions about the values of the exogenous variables at various future dates.