1. Meaning of letters in the equations below:
r: percentage increase during 1954-57 in world exports of all manufactures to all countries other than Japan
X: Japan’s total exports of manufactures in 1953
X′: Japan’s total exports of manufactures in 1957
Subscript i(i = 1, 2, 3): each category of manufactures
Subscript j(j = 1,2,…..,15): each different market
Thus, e.g., Xi and Xij represent Japan’s exports in 1953 of commodity group i to all markets and to market j, respectively. Similarly, ri and rij represent percentage increases during 1954-57 in world exports of commodity group i to all markets and to market j, respectively.
2. The effects of the increase in total world trade in manufactures on Japan’s exports is
3. The effect of the commodity composition of the increase in world trade in manufactures on Japan’s exports is
4. The effect of the market pattern of the increase in world trade in manufactures on Japan’s exports is
5. The effect of the increase in world trade in manufactures on Japan’s exports, allowance being made for the commodity composition and market pattern of this increase, is (1) + (2) + (3), or
6. The effect of the increased competitiveness of Japan’s exports is
The corresponding amount for commodity group i is
Mr. Narvekar, economist in the Far Eastern Division, is a graduate of Bombay University and of Columbia University.
Manufactured goods are defined as those included in Sections 5-8 of the UN Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). As such, they do not include processed foods, processed fats and oils, and petroleum products.
Average for the years 1953-57. The percentage increased each year, from 83 in 1953 to 89 in 1957.
Excluding Special Category exports; if these were included, the increase would be much smaller.
These accrue principally as reimbursements for the cost of supporting the UN Korea forces stationed in Japan, from sales to the UN forces under the special procurement program, and from U.S. expenditures for the maintenance of its forces in Japan since the Peace Treaty. The amount of these receipts was at a peak of $803 million in 1953, but declined to $449 million in 1957.
The general procedure for separating the effect of demand factors was first suggested by H. Tyszynski; see “World Trade in Manufactured Commodities, 1899-1950,” Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, Vol. XIX, No. 3 (September 1951), pp. 272-304. For a mathematical presentation of all three steps, see Appendix.
Throughout the following, the words “exports” and “trade” refer to exports of, and trade in, manufactured goods, unless otherwise stated. World trade is measured from the export side and excludes exports to Japan.
Corresponding to the definition of world trade as total world exports, demand from a given market is measured by world exports to it.
These are (1) North America, (2) Latin American dollar countries, (3) Latin American non-dollar countries, (4) continental Western Europe, (5) dependencies of continental Western Europe, (6) other Europe, (7) Eastern Europe, (8) Middle Eastern countries outside the sterling area, (9) the United Kingdom, Iceland, and Ireland, (10) Australia, New Zealand, the Union of South Africa, and the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland, (11) independent Far Eastern sterling area countries, (12) Middle Eastern sterling area countries, (13) other sterling area countries, (14) China (Mainland), and (15) other Far East.
In 1957, Japan ranked after the United States, the United Kingdom, the Federal Republic of Germany, France, and Belgium-Luxembourg.
Includes China (Taiwan), Cambodia, Laos, Viet-Nam, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand.
The regional classification of the source material excludes Japanese exports of ships to Liberia. Since there is reason to believe that these were purchased, in fact, by U.S.-owned companies, they have been included in “North America.”
Based on data from United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics. The 12 countries are those listed in footnote 1 of Table 2, and India. A comparison of this composite index with that of Japan is not fully appropriate because the former includes Japan; in the absence of knowledge regarding the relative weights, Japan cannot be separated from the composite index. Nevertheless, the error should not be significant, since Japan’s weight is not likely to be large enough for changes in Japan’s prices to affect the composite index significantly.
R. F. Harrod, “The British Boom, 1954-55,” Economic Journal, Vol. 66 (1956), pp. 1-16.
However, because of an increase in exports of processed foods and beverages (not included in manufactures as defined above), Japan’s total exports increased slightly in 1958.
In 1958, Japan ranked after the United States, the United Kingdom, the Federal Republic of Germany, and France.