Mr. Sweeney, economist in the North American Division, was educated at the University of Chicago and was formerly with the U.S. Bureau of the Budget.
All the import series considered in this study are U.S. imports for consumption.
Most of the calculations in this study were completed early in 1953 when few observations were available for that year. Thus the relations in the study were originally fitted for the period 1947-51, the four quarters of 1952 being reserved as independent observations by which various forecasting schemes might be tested. The charts included herein have been drawn on the same basis.
These results are better than those obtained by assuming that a previous change in imports will persist in the next quarter, i.e., that if imports in quarter 2 are X above quarter 1, imports in quarter 3 will be X above quarter 2.
The residuals found by subtracting computed values based on equation (1) from actual values for imports are essentially random, as tested by the von Neumann ratio. The ratio of the mean square successive difference to the variance of the series is 1.44, a value which is not inconsistent with the hypothesis that the series is random. No significant improvement in the relation is therefore likely as a result of including additional variables.
As published by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, table, “Commercial Paper and Bankers’ Acceptances Outstanding.”
To the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., Occasional Paper No. 31 (New York, 1950); see especially Table 12, p. 64. The series in Moore’s paper is “new orders, durable goods industries.” The aggregate series used in the present study (new orders, durable and nondurable), however, reflects the turning points as well and is more relevant in relation to U.S. imports. The seven other indicators used by Moore are (1) total liabilities involved in business failures, industrial and commercial (Dun’s), (2) industrial common stock price index (Dow-Jones), (3) residential building contracts, floor space (Dodge), (4) commercial building contracts, floor space (Dodge), (5) average hours worked per week, manufacturing (BLS), (6) number of new incorporations (Dun’s), and (7) wholesale price index, 28 basic commodities (BLS).
For unadjusted data for the period prior to 1953, see Survey of Current Business, October 1950, 1951, 1952, and December 1953. For current data, see Industry Survey.
The residuals derived from this relation are essentially random, the ratio of the mean square successive difference to the variance being 2.16, a value which is not inconsistent with the hypothesis that the series is a random series. No significant improvement in the relation is therefore to be expected from the inclusion of additional variables.
Imports of crude materials and semimanufactures in 1948 dollars were obtained by multiplying the respective 1948 imports of these two groups by the respective volume indexes and adding. New orders were deflated by wholesale prices of manufactured goods.
This may be compared with a correlation coefficient of .72 between imports of crude materials and semimanufactures in constant dollars and industrial production unlagged (1947-51).
The residuals derived from the relation are essentially random. The ratio of the mean square successive difference to the variance is 1.38, a value not inconsistent with the hypothesis that the series is random.
The ratio of the mean square successive difference to the variance is 2.20, a value not inconsistent with the hypothesis that the series is random.
The ratio of the mean square successive difference to the variance is 1.38, a value not inconsistent with the hypothesis that the series is random.
The residuals, as for the single relation, are random and show no serial correlation.
The preceding sections of this paper and the relations discussed therein were developed when import data for 1953 were not available.
See Survey of Current Business, December 1953, for a detailed explanation of the revisions.
It should be remembered that the relations described earlier in this study were based on data only for the period 1947-51.