Abstract
Two years ago, citizens in the Arab world—fired by their ideals and visions of a better life—ignited a social movement that inspired people around the globe. In Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen—the so-called Arab countries in transition—people embraced change, ushering in a new era. This issue of F&D looks at the difficulties of this transition, focusing on long-standing forces that shape the region’s economy and offering options for moving ahead to achieve strong, inclusive growth. • Masood Ahmed, Director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, maps out an agenda for modernizing and diversifying the region’s economies in “Toward Prosperity for All.” • In “Freedom and Bread Go Together,” Marwan Muasher addresses the intersection of economic progress and political change. • Vali Nasr, in a Point of View column, underscores the vital role small and medium-sized enterprises play in a successful democratic transition. Elsewhere in this issue, we look at how surging oil and gas production in the United States could shake up global energy markets; the effect of uncertainty on economic growth; and Mexico’s competitiveness rebound. F&D's People in Economics series profiles Christina Romer, former chair of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers and an architect of the U.S. stimulus package; and the latest installment in our Back to Basics series explains how structural policies help to both stabilize and strengthen economies.
Countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have lagged behind emerging market and developing economies in both economic growth and trade over the past two decades, and trade has not been the significant engine of growth in these countries that it has been in others. Not surprisingly, lackluster economic growth in the MENA region has restrained employment growth, which has not kept pace with a rapidly expanding workforce.
GDP per capita and exports in the MENA region are significantly lower than the average for emerging market and developing economies.
Citation: Finance & Development 50, 001; 10.5089/9781475542684.022.A010
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.GDP per capita and exports in the MENA region are significantly lower than the average for emerging market and developing economies.
Citation: Finance & Development 50, 001; 10.5089/9781475542684.022.A010
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.GDP per capita and exports in the MENA region are significantly lower than the average for emerging market and developing economies.
Citation: Finance & Development 50, 001; 10.5089/9781475542684.022.A010
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.
Market access
Trade restrictiveness is one important problem holding back the region. It remains high despite significant tariff reforms. Most MENA oil importers have streamlined and lowered tariffs over the past two decades, often via trade agreements with the European Union and the United States. But oil importers’ tariffs—averaging about 10 percent in 2011—remain high.
MENA countries have considerable trade restrictions among the 139 countries surveyed.
Citation: Finance & Development 50, 001; 10.5089/9781475542684.022.A010
Source: World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report, 2012–2013.MENA countries have considerable trade restrictions among the 139 countries surveyed.
Citation: Finance & Development 50, 001; 10.5089/9781475542684.022.A010
Source: World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report, 2012–2013.MENA countries have considerable trade restrictions among the 139 countries surveyed.
Citation: Finance & Development 50, 001; 10.5089/9781475542684.022.A010
Source: World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report, 2012–2013.
Europe is a key export destination for the MENA region.
(exports to the European Union, percent of total exports, 2011)
Citation: Finance & Development 50, 001; 10.5089/9781475542684.022.A010
Source: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics database.1Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia.2Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria.Europe is a key export destination for the MENA region.
(exports to the European Union, percent of total exports, 2011)
Citation: Finance & Development 50, 001; 10.5089/9781475542684.022.A010
Source: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics database.1Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia.2Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria.Europe is a key export destination for the MENA region.
(exports to the European Union, percent of total exports, 2011)
Citation: Finance & Development 50, 001; 10.5089/9781475542684.022.A010
Source: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics database.1Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia.2Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria.
Regional integration
Trade, particularly in the North African countries, remains oriented mainly toward Europe, and the region has thus benefited relatively little from the high growth of many emerging markets. Deeper trade integration with international markets could give the MENA region a substantial economic boost. Empirical evidence suggests that increasing the region’s openness to equal that of emerging Asia could raise annual per capita GDP growth by almost a full percentage point. MENA oil importers also trade little with their immediate neighbors. Given their close proximity (distance is one of the most important determinants of trade), these countries could be exporting about 50 percent more than they currently are.
Trade within the MENA regional groups remains very low.
Citation: Finance & Development 50, 001; 10.5089/9781475542684.022.A010
Sources: ASEAN; EUROSTAT; IsDB; UNCTAD; Arab Investment and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation; and national sources.Note: Maghreb = Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia; Mashreq + GCC = Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates; MERCOSUR = Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay; and ASEAN-5 = Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.Trade within the MENA regional groups remains very low.
Citation: Finance & Development 50, 001; 10.5089/9781475542684.022.A010
Sources: ASEAN; EUROSTAT; IsDB; UNCTAD; Arab Investment and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation; and national sources.Note: Maghreb = Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia; Mashreq + GCC = Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates; MERCOSUR = Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay; and ASEAN-5 = Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.Trade within the MENA regional groups remains very low.
Citation: Finance & Development 50, 001; 10.5089/9781475542684.022.A010
Sources: ASEAN; EUROSTAT; IsDB; UNCTAD; Arab Investment and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation; and national sources.Note: Maghreb = Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia; Mashreq + GCC = Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates; MERCOSUR = Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay; and ASEAN-5 = Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.Prepared by Amine Mati of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department. Text and charts are based on the regional economic outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (various issues).
