St. Lucia: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sector Statistics Mission (October 28–November 1, 2024)
Author:
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Search for other papers by International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept. in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
Publication Date:
18 Apr 2025
eISBN:
9798229003865
Language:
English
Keywords:
transaction confidentiality; ECCB site; gross income; CIP modality; support of the CSO; Exports
Download PDF (835.2 KB)

As part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on External Sector Statistics (ESS) a technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted to the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of Saint Lucia during October 28–November 1, 2024. The mission focused on data collection issues related to the Citizenship by Investment Program (CIP), and the work program to improve estimates for trade in goods, travel exports, and direct investment.

Section I. Detailed Technical Assessment and Recommendations

A. Action Plan

8. The mission assessed the implementation of the previous mission’s action plan in ESS compilation (see Appendix I). Recommendations from previous missions that were not implemented are included in the current action plan. Actions are prioritized as priority recommendations (PR), high (H), and medium (M).

article image
article image

B. Institutional Environment

9. The legal basis for the collection of data is the 2001 Statistics Act of St. Lucia (Cap 17.12, Vol. 19).5 The Act governs the activities of the CSO for data collecting, processing and disseminating statistics. The main data sources are surveys and administrative-based records. BOP surveys are administered to 115 establishments. The nominal response rate during the last years has been around 50 percent, however in 2023 it declined to 46 percent (See Appendix III).

10. Previous missions’ recommendations were provided regarding the number of establishments surveyed and the need to obtain more detailed information on transactions of deposit-taking corporations (DTCs). It was recommended to analyze the list of establishments included in the business registry in line with their expected contribution to the main transactions of the BOP. According to previous discussions with the ECCB, the recommendations on the revision of the business register will be included in the work plan for the migration to the BPM7.

11. A good practice in the compilation of international accounts for time series analysis according to the BPM6 Compilation Guide is to have a transparent way of handling revisions.6 This practice helps define preliminary and definitive data, thus the mission recommended to the ECCB to include footnotes in the BOP preliminary table published in March to clarify differences from data published in March or December for users, especially indicating data availability of administrative sources like DTCs or general government information.

12. The director of the CSO expressed the institution's commitment to enhancing the quality of statistics in general, and of the ESS in particular. An ongoing initiative, known as the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS), aims to enhance coordination among organizations and the national statistical systems framework in St. Lucia, with the CSO expected to serve as a central hub. However, its implementation has been slow.7 The mission underscored the importance of closer coordination between the CSO and other data-producing institutions, such as the CED and the SLTB, as well as with other government entities, including the Ministry of Finance.

13. The recommendations from the previous mission concerning timeliness and data accessibility—specifically regarding metadata, quarterly indicators, and an advance release calendar—were successfully implemented and are now available on the ECCB website. The mission also encouraged the CSO to enhance its website to include the dissemination of BOP and IIP statistics, along with other pertinent information such as quarterly indicators and metadata, which are currently only available on the ECCB site. Effective dissemination channels are a crucial aspect of data quality.

Recommendations:

  • With the support of high-level authorities, strengthen formal collaboration among stakeholders (including the CED and the SLTB) to improve data quality for the compilation of BOP and IIP.

  • Disseminate BOP and IIP, metadata and quarterly indicators on the CSO website.

  • Analyze the list of establishments included in the business register, in line with their expected contribution to the main transactions of the BOP.

C. Trade Balance

14. As previously recommended, the CED confirmed that all customs regimes are included in the trade flows provided to the CSO, including transactions through the free zone. The FZMA indicated that it operates as promotional agency aimed at attracting more companies to the area. All goods transactions within the zone, including fuel imports and re-exports, are registered by the CED. Following the mission recommendation, the CSO committed to ensuring that the appropriate customs regimes, as outlined in the BPM6, are considered into the trade database.8

15. The CED committed to restoring the regular monthly provision of trade flows to the CSO, as was previously practiced. Furthermore, the CED noted that a fuel importer registered a significant volume of fuel imports during 2024 (date of registration), however the transaction actually occurred in 2023 (date of occurrence). This situation highlighted the necessity of distinguishing the “date of registration” and “date of occurrence” of trade flows. The latter is a closer definition for the value on an accrual basis, that is the value at which BOP transactions should be recorded.9 The CSO is currently using the date of registration and will confirm if the date of occurrence is available in the database. The CED indicated that they are unable to revise the transactions recorded in their system due to limited resources. The mission recommended the CSO recording imports at the “date of occurrence.” The mission recommended that the amount of fuel imported, recorded in 2024, be attributed to 2023. Additionally, if applicable, similar transactions from previous years should receive the same treatment.

16. It is important to highlight the ECCB’s effort to incorporate timely and consistent fuel imports in the trade balance data.10 Previous missions had analyzed monthly data on fuel imports, observing fluctuating movements and inconsistent values with the economic activity of the country. To address this issue and minimize inconsistencies, the ECCB is replacing fuel imports figures from the CED with values reported directly by fuel importers. However, the mission recommended the CSO to actively revise the data received from the CED to ensure the accuracy of the statistics, in accordance with the best practices outlined in the BPM6 Compilation Guide. According to paragraph 3.41 of the BPM6, the change of economic ownership is central for determining the time of recording on an accrual basis for transactions involving goods, nonproduced nonfinancial assets, and financial assets.

17. Reviewing the trade data, the mission found a discrepancy in total exports and imports reported by the CSO. The trade data categorized by the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) available on ECCB’s website does not align with the trade data by partner countries (Table 2).11 It is important to guarantee the consistency of published numbers for exports and imports notwithstanding the breakdown of the data.

Table 2.

Exports, Imports, and Re-exports (EC$ million)

article image
Sources: CSO and ECCB.

18. The mission recommended to review granular data on fuel imports, exports, and re-exports, categorized by product and company. This is important to gain a better understanding of the products and companies reflected in customs data from 2019 to 2023—and to relate this information to economic activity and fuel prices—thus ensuring data are consistent for comprehensive macroeconomic analysis.12 In this context, the CSO would be able to evaluate the data from a time series perspective and assess its relevance in principle comparing fuel imports with economic activity and fuel prices. This exercise may also assist in determining the correct transactions date (date of occurrence) which should be used instead of the date of registration (see templates in Appendix IV).

Recommendations:

  • CSO to confirm the applicable CED regimes (outright exportation, re-exportation, home use, re-importation, customs warehousing, other procedures) are considered in the trade database.

  • CSO to make sure the total exports and imports by partner countries are consistent with total exports and imports by the SITC.

  • CSO to consider recording imports at the “date of occurrence.”

  • CSO to review exports, imports, and re-exports by product and by company to ensure alignment with economic activity (2019–2023).

  • CSO to obtain from CED the amount of fuel imports to be adjusted for 2023 and check if there are similar cases to previous years and if necessary, perform a revision.

D. Travel Credits

19. Further efforts are needed to improve the quality of the data on stay over visitor's average daily expenditure and length of stay. Since the pandemic, the SLTB conducts the Visitor Expenditure Survey (VES) by email or using QR codes for visitors. The response rate is low, and the monitoring of the sample obtained and its representativeness is limited. During the previous mission it was also noted that the validation procedure followed by the SLTB was creating upward biases to the results obtained, as they have been disregarding valid responses from visitors that stayed in hotels other than the all-inclusive resorts. However, following the previous mission recommendation, the SLTB incorporated valid surveys (that were previously disregarded due to missing information on detailed expenditures) for estimating the total visitor expenditure for the December 2023 estimates. Appendix V shows the average daily expenditure by category of visitor to the country.

20. The mission confirmed that a larger sample size is needed to accurately represent the population of stay over visitors; in addition, the response rate is low. In 2023, the number of respondents (expenditure sample size) represented just 1.3 percent of the total stay over arrivals. In the same year, the SLTB has sent out 27,691 emails and little less than 18 percent of those who received the email replied to the survey. It is important to reference paragraph 2.27 of the BPM6 Compilation Guide, which states that the larger the sample size, the smaller the sampling error. It further asserts that population size is not a significant factor unless the population is very small, or the sample size approaches the total population size. Additionally, since the surveyed sample does not fully represent the profile of tourist arrivals, this reinforces the notion that the resulting figures are biased.13 (See Appendix VI).

21. The average daily expenditure and length of stay of stay over visitors have significant changes between 2022 and 2023. In 2023, visitors from the United States and other European countries increased their average daily expenditure by 17.2 percent and 18.3 percent, respectively, compared to 2022. Additionally, the length of stay of Caribbean and Other World decreased by 26.4 percent and 17.2 percent, respectively, in the same period. These are significant variations that may be associated with the issue of sample bias. Even with the inclusion of previously disregarded surveys in 2023, the sample may not fully represent all types of accommodations within the entire population, as the monitoring and representativeness of the SLTB's sample are limited.14 (See Table 3).

Table 3.

Daily Expenditure and Length of Stay Averages (US$/Day)

article image
Sources: ECCB and CSO.

22. The mission conducted an exercise to assess the possible level of discrepancy in the travel exports estimates using mirror data and found that travel exports could be overestimated by as much as 14.0 percent in 2023. The exercise focused on the U.S. visitor expenditure in St. Lucia and consisted in applying the growth rate of the weighted trip expenditure informed by U.S. travelers to St. Lucia—from the U.S. Survey of International Air Travelers (SIAT)—to the average daily expenditure of the SLTB.1516 The initial data considered is 2019 and the exercise suggests that the total expenditure of U.S. visitors in St. Lucia in the VES might be overestimated by 24.8 percent in 2023 and the overall total expenditure in the VES overestimated by 14.0 percent. The result highlights the importance of addressing the sample bias in the current method of collecting information from tourists of St. Lucia and supports the recommendation to return to in-person surveys, which were more comprehensive.17 The mission noted that for the year 2019, the average expenditure of U.S. visitors was US$1,455, as reported by SIAT, while the data from the SLTB indicated an average of US$2,354.18 The mission recommended a review of the methodology employed in the face-to-face survey conducted by the SLTB in 2019, specifically regarding the representativeness of the sample obtained and potential reasons for the observed discrepancy. Additional details regarding this exercise and the SIAT methodology can be found in Appendix VII.

23. New legislation on tourism was promulgated in 2024.19 Among other provisions, it establishes a tourism information database, which strengthens the legal framework for collecting, recording, managing, and disseminating information and data on tourism. In addition, in October 2024, a new CEO took office at the SLTB. Following the mission recommendation, the CSO will aim to persuade the new CEO of the importance of restoring the in-person survey.

24. The standard component breakdown of the travel account, as outlined in the BPM6, distinguishes between business and personal travel. To ensure that travel credits align with the BPM6 standard components, the mission requested this breakdown of total expenditures from the VES survey from the SLTB, which has committed to sharing this information with the CSO.

25. In order to enhance the coverage of the BOP sectors, SLTB with the support of the CSO and the ECCB, needs to obtain better knowledge on the yacht industry, which is a significant sector in St. Lucia’s economy and contributes to tourism revenues and local employment. The mission recommends the CSO to have meetings with yacht associations and companies offering goods and services for yachts, to design surveys and include those expenses in the BOP.

Recommendations:

  • SLTB, with the support of the CSO and the ECCB, to start surveying the yacht industry and its business service providers.

  • The CSO to follow up on the request of the breakdown by motivation of the travel (Business/Personal) to the estimated total expenditure from the SLTB.

  • Return to in-person VES, as budget allows, to accomplish a representative sample that shares the characteristics of the visitor population.

E. The Citizenship By Investment (CIP)

26. The CIP considers investment by applicants mainly through the National Economic Fund (NEF) or the real estate investment. The most significant CIP modality is the real estate investment. According to the CIP Unit the real estate project option accounts for 75 percent of the financial resources raised by the CIP.

27. No progress has been made on the pending information from the CIP Unit. The CIP Unit did not share monthly flows and stocks of the foreign escrow accounts with the CSO as committed during the previous mission.20 Additional requests had been made to the CIP Unit to provide information on land sales to nonresidents.

28. St. Lucia’s CIP Unit along with the Citizenship by Investment Units of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) have signed a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) to strengthen their CIP programs.21 In this context, among other measures, as of July 2024, there was an increase in the minimum legislative price of qualifying investment to be paid to any government fund, government project or private development project, set at US$240,000. The Government of St. Lucia will suggest further strengthening measures for the CIP programs, such as the escrow accounts to be held in St. Lucia or in the individual islands.22

Recommendations:

  • Follow up on the request to the CIP Unit on the flows and stocks of the foreign escrow accounts by the real estate developers under the CIP program.

  • Follow up on the request to the CIP Unit on the transactions of land sales for 2021-2023.

F. Special Purpose Entities (SPES)

29. According to previous discussions with the ECCB, the recommendation to identify potential SPEs will be included in the work program for the migration to the BPM7. The identification of IBCs—considered as SPEs—is necessary to properly compile and cover the cross-border transactions and positions of these enterprises and to include them in the ESS. According to the SPEs: Guidelines for a Data Template, SPEs are legally registered entity with minimal employment (up to five employees), with no or little physical presence and no or little physical production in the host economy; are directly or indirectly controlled by nonresidents; and are established to gain specific advantages such as access to capital markets, financial risk isolation, reduced regulatory and tax burdens, and transaction confidentiality. SPEs primarily transact with nonresidents, and their financial balance sheets largely consist of cross-border claims and liabilities.23

30. During previous missions, the IRD indicated that 3,884 IBCs were incorporated in St. Lucia at the end of 2022. The IRD also provided values for gross income by foreign revenue classified by economic sector for these companies in 2022. However, clarifications on the presented values have been requested as they seemed to be too low considering the quantities of companies involved.24

Recommendations:

  • Follow up on the clarification requested to the IRD regarding the gross income by foreign revenue of the IBCs, the list of registered agents and assigned entities.

  • Begin initial steps to identify and collect available quarterly cross-border transactions and positions of the IBCs and include them in ESS.

G. 2023 Revised BOP

31. Revised 2023 BOP estimates compared with those published in March 2024 were reviewed. With the information received, the NEOs went from negative EC$1 million published in March 2024 to negative EC$68 million at the end of the mission (an increase of 1.0 percentage point of GDP). The estimate for 2023 published in March 2024 was based on administrative data, whereas the estimate to be published in December 2024 will incorporate survey data, including for the DTCs. It is important to mention that the coverage of all administrative data was not complete in March and therefore these were preliminary estimates. Also, validation procedures have been conducted on the surveys received. (See Table 4).

32. The revised 2023 BOP will be disseminated in December 2024—jointly with other ECCU countries’ data—and will incorporate pending data. The BOP for 2021–2023 as of November 1, 2024, is in Appendix II.

Table 1.

Net Errors and Omissions 2016–2023 (Published vs. Revised)

article image
Source: ECCB.

Recommendation:

  • ECCB to consider incorporating more detailed explanatory footnotes to the BOP and IIP estimates published each March to inform on the available coverage for administrative sources—mainly DTCs and general government.

H. Officials Met During the Mission

article image

Appendices

Appendix I. Progress Made On the Action Plan of the Previous Mission

article image
article image

Appendix II. Balance of Payments 2021–2023, Revised vs. Published March 20241/(EC$ Million)

article image
article image
article image
article image
1/ Revised as of November 1, 2024. Sources: ECCB and CSO.

Appendix III. Response Rate to Balance of Payments Survey 2019–2023 (Percentage)1/

article image
article image
1/ Nominal rate. Provisional rates as of November 1, 2024. Sources: ECCB and CSO.

Appendix IV. Exports, Imports, and Re-Exports (Us$ Million)

Exports, Imports, and Re-exports Templates – by Product

article image
1/ HS-8 digits.

Fuel Exports, Imports, and Re-exports Templates – by Product and by Company

article image
1/ HS8: 27101930. 2/ HS8: 27101220. 3/ HS8: 27101911. 4/ HS8: 27111911, 27111912, 27111913, 27111914

Appendix V. Travel Credits Estimates 2018–2023 (Us$ Million)

article image
1/ Travel credits of the BOP. Sources: ECCB and CSO.

Appendix VI. St. Lucia Tourist Board (SLTB) – Expenditure Surveys Methodology, Arrivals and Sample Size Obtained (2018–2023)

article image
article image
Source: SLTB.

Appendix VII. Exercise Tourism Expenditure

1. The mission analyzed tourism exports utilizing mirror data for U.S. travelers to St. Lucia, as reported in the SIAT, which is administered by the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries of the International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.25 U.S. travelers were selected as the focus of this analysis because they represent the primary market for St. Lucia, accounting for 54.0 percent (210,918) of total tourist arrivals in 2023, according to the SLTB. Additionally, there was a notable increase of 17.2 percent in the average daily expenditure of U.S. travelers reported by the SLTB from 2022 to 2023 (from US$381.8 to US$447.6). It is important to highlight a best practice outlined in paragraph 12.74 of the BPM6 Compilation Guide, which states that data from partner economies (mirror statistics) can serve as a supplementary source when compiling an economy’s travel credits or debits.26

2. First, the number of U.S. travelers to St. Lucia reported by the SIAT was compared to the total arrivals from the VES conducted by the SLTB, and the two series were found to be quite similar (Table 5). Given the significant variation in daily average expenditure identified for U.S. visitors, the analysis utilized the average daily expenditure reported by the SLTB in 2019 as the baseline year (US$322.4). This year was selected because it was the last year of the in-person survey and provided more consistent and unbiased data. The growth rate of the weighted trip expenditure reported by U.S. travelers to St. Lucia in the SIAT was then applied to the daily average expenditure from the SLTB to serve as a proxy for current daily average expenditure (Table 6).27

Table 5.

U.S. Travelers to St. Lucia

article image
Sources: SIAT and SLTB.
Table 6.

U.S. Average Daily Expenditure

article image
1/ Calculations. 2/ Estimated average daily expenditure based in the growth rate of the weighted trip expenditure survey of SIAT. Sources: SIAT and SLTB.

3. The estimated total expenditure for U.S. travelers in 2023 reached US$479.1 million, which is 24.8 percent lower than the stayover expenditure reported by the VES conducted by the SLTB, amounting to US$637.1 million. When considering this difference of US$158.0 million in relation to the VES total expenditure, the overall VES total expenditure would be US$971.1 million, compared to the reported VES total expenditure of US$1,129.1 million, reflecting a decrease of 14.0 percent. (Table 7).

Table 7.

VES Total Expenditure

article image
1/ Calculations. Sources: SLTB.

4. This exercise underscores the importance of utilizing mirror statistics to evaluate current estimates on travel credits. It is essential to ensure a higher response rate for the VES and to enhance the representativeness of the surveyed sample by considering various countries and types of accommodations.
5

CSO_St. Lucia_Statistics_Act_Chapter_17.12_Vol._19_of_2001.pdf (stats.gov.lc).

6

For further details see paragraph 2.40 of the BPM6.

8

Outright exportation, re-exportation, home use (imports), re-importation, customs warehousing, and other procedures. Refer to Appendix IV, CARTAC TA Report ESS Mission to St. Lucia (August 7–16, 2023).

9

The BPM6 Compilation Guide, in its paragraph 3.39, recommends employing the accrual basis for determining the time of recording of BOP transactions, which involves recording flows at the time economic value is created, transformed, exchanged, transferred, or extinguished. For further details, see paragraphs 3.35 and 3.39 of the BPM6 Compilation Guide.

10

The previous mission indicated that the CSO is incorporating fuel imports directly from the major companies that import fuel, thereby mitigating inconsistencies. However, further adjustments in CSO’s trade database are necessary to ensure compliance with the BPM6 guidelines.

11

The CSO shared exports and imports by partner country and the ECCB publishes exports and imports by SITC.

12

Further details see paragraph 2.30 BPM6.

13

The SLTB needs to ensure that survey participants represent the overall visitor population of St. Lucia, a goal that has not been met since the introduction of the email/QR code VES.

14

CARTAC TA Report ESS Mission to St. Lucia (October 30–November 3, 2023).

15

SIAT is administered by the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries of the International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce https://www.trade.gov/us-international-air-travel-statistics-i-92-data.

16

Weighted average trip expenditures refer to the average spending of international travelers, adjusted to accurately reflect the demographics and travel patterns of the entire population of travelers. This adjustment ensures that the data represents various segments of travelers, accounting for differences in spending behavior.

17

The reference date is 2019 because it was when the surveys were done in-person, and the accuracy of the information was more precise than current estimates derived from email/QR code surveys.

18

The number of respondents to the SIAT survey in 2019 was 80. The Office of Travel and Tourism Industries of the International Trade Administration weights the trip expenditures reported to accurately reflect the demographics and travel patterns of the entire population of travelers.

20

CARTAC TA Report ESS Mission to St. Lucia (August 7–16, 2023).

24

The request included the list of registered agents and as possible, the number and assigned entities.

26

Further details, see paragraph 12.74 of the BPM6 Compilation Guide.

27

Weighted average trip expenditures refer to the average spending of international travelers, adjusted to accurately reflect the demographics and travel patterns of the entire population of travelers. This adjustment ensures that the data represents various segments of travelers, accounting for differences in spending behavior.

Citation Info

Other IMF Content

Other Publishers

  • Collapse
  • Expand
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
St. Lucia: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sector Statistics Mission (October 28–November 1, 2024)
Author:
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2025: Issue 041
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
9798229003865
ISSN:
3005-4575
Pages:
30
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229003865.019