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TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REPORT

UGANDA

The Cost of Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals in Human Capital and Infrastructure Development

December 2024

Prepared By^*

Piergiorgio Carapella, Tewodaj Mogues ⁺, and Julieth Pico-Mejía

Authoring Departments:

FISCAL AFFAIRS DEPARTMENT

DISCLAIMER

The contents of this document constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the International Monetary Fund to the authorities of Uganda (the “CD recipient”) in response to their request for technical assistance. Unless the CD recipient specifically objects to such disclosure, this document (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof may be disclosed by the IMF to the IMF Executive Director for Uganda, to other IMF Executive Directors and members of their staff, as well as to other agencies or instrumentalities of the CD recipient, and upon their request, to World Bank staff, and other technical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interest [if applicable only] members of the Steering Committee of [name of RCDC) or Thematic Fund)] (see Staff Operational Guidance on the Dissemination of Capacity Development Information). Publication or Disclosure of this report (in whole or in part) to parties outside the IMF other than agencies or instrumentalities of the CD recipient, World Bank staff, other technical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interest [if applicable only] members of the Steering Committee of [name of RCDC or Thematic Fund] shall require the explicit consent of the CD recipient and the IMF’s FAD department.

Table of Contents

• Acronyms and Abbreviations

• Preface

• Executive Summary

• I. Introduction

• II. Human capital development

  • A. Health

  • B. Education

• III. INFRASTRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT

  • A. Water and Sanitation

  • B. Electricity

  • C. Road Infrastructure

• IV. Conclusion

• FIGURES

• 1. Gross Domestic Product: Per Capita and Annual Growth

• 2. Extreme Poverty

• 3. Uganda’s Performance in the SDGs, Compared to Income-group and Region Averages

• 4. Health Outcomes

• 5. SDG 3 Index for Uganda and Income Groups

• 6. Health Spending

• 7. Health Inputs and Expenditure Efficiency

• 8. Decomposition of Additional Spending on Health

• 9. Trends in Educational Outcomes

• 10. SDG 4 Index for Uganda and Income Groups

• 11. Demographics and Enrollment

• 12. Uganda and Peers: Demographics, Inputs, and Outcomes Pertaining to Education

• 13. Decomposition of Additional Spending in Education

• 14. Access to Water and Sanitation Services Over Time

• 15. Access to Water and Sanitation Compared to Peers

• 16. SDG Index: EAC Countries

• 17. SDG 6 Index: Income Groups

• 18. Annual Cost of Providing WASH to Unserved Population by 2030, by Type

• 19. Installed Capacity

• 20. EAC and LIDCs: Electricity Consumption per Capita

• 21. Electricity Access

• 22. EAC and LIDCs: GDP per Capita and Electricity Consumption

• 23. Economic and Electric Power Consumption Statistics

• 24. Electricity Generation from Renewable Sources

• 25. Rural Access Index

• 26. EAC: Quality of Roads

• 27. Economic and Road Indicators

• 28. Maintenance Needs

• 29. Additional Annual Spending in Uganda and Other Countries

• TABLES

• 1. Additional Spending for High Performance in Health SDG

• 2. Uganda: Additional Spending for High Performance in Education SDG

• 3. Additional Spending to Achieve Universal Coverage of Water and Sanitation Services in 2030

• 4. Additional Investment Needs in the Electricity Sector

• 5. Total Road Network

• 6. Additional Investment in Roads

• APPENDICES

• I. Poverty Statistic

• II. Health Car

• III. Education

• IV. Water and Sanitation

• V. Electricity

• VI. Road Infrastructure

Acronyms and Abbreviations

Preface

In response to a request from the Ugandan Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED), a technical mission during February 28 – March 18, 2022 engaged with authorities in virtual meetings to collaborate on an assessment of the spending associated with making substantial progress along the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for human and physical capital development. A pre-mission meeting was held to present methodology, and a post-mission meeting enabled discussions after the Aide Mémoire was completed. The mission comprised Tewodaj Mogues (head), Piergiorgio Carapella, and Julieth Pico Mejia, all in the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD). This technical mission was financed by the European Union (EU) under the EU-International Monetary Fund (IMF) Public Financial Management Partnership Program.

In preparing this report, the IMF team discussed with Dr. Albert Musisi (Commissioner, Macroeconomic Policy) and other MoFPED officers. The mission also held technical discussions with Dr. Julius Okello (Team Leader, Infrastructure) from the Prime Minister’s Delivery Unit, Mr. Vincent Operomo (Manager, Strategic Planning) from the National Planning Authority; Mr. John Mayende (Head of Department, Outreach and Quality Assurance) from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, Mr. Michael Ariyo (Commissioner, Planning) from the Ministry of Education and Sports (MoES), Mr. Ahmed Ssentumbwe (Assistant Commissioner, Rural Water) from the Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE), Mr. Okitoi Paul (Commissioner, Planning) from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development(MEMD), Mr. Gary Cosma Matovu (Transport Planner) from the Uganda National Roads Authority, Mr. Isaac Kinhonhi (Manager, Planning and Research) from the Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA), Mr. Isaac Mubanza (Economist) from the Ministry of Health (MoH), and several other officers in these government agencies. The mission also met with Augustine Kpehe Ngafuan (Country Manager), Peter Engbo Rasmussen (Principal Country Economist), Alemayehu Wubshet-Zegeye (Sector Manager, Power Operations), and Andrew Muguwa (Water and Sanitation Specialist) (all African Development Bank); Tarik Kubach (Program Officer, European Union); Tawanda Chinembiri (Chief of Social Policy, United Nations Children’s Fund); Simon Peter Nsereko (Senior Economist, United Nations Resident Coordinator’s Office); Batula Abdi (Program Officer, United Nations Population Fund); Rogers Akiyo (Senior Health Specialist), Anne Bakilana (Program Leader, Human Development), Collins Chansa (Senior Health Economist), Joanna Juzon (Education Specialist), Julia Mensah (Senior Health Specialist), Ivan Emmanuel Mwondha (Senior Transport Specialist), Shawn Powers (Senior Economist, Education Global Practice), Federico Qüerio (Senior Energy Specialist) (all World Bank); and several other staff of development partners.

The mission wishes to express its sincere appreciation for the close cooperation and excellent support given by officials and staff of these various organizations with whom the mission met. The mission is also thankful to Izabela Karpowicz (IMF Resident Representative) for overall guidance and advice, and to Wilson Asiimwe (Senior Economic Modeller, MoFPED) and Pelga Origasha (IMF Resident Representative’s Office) for facilitating mission logistics. The mission is thankful for the administrative assistance provided by Daine Hale.