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© 2023 International Monetary Fund
SIP/2023/008
IMF Selected Issues Paper
African Department
The Effects of Climate and Conflict Shocks on Household Welfare
Prepared by Yoro Diallo
Authorized for distribution by Costas Christou
December 2022
IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on December 6, 2022. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 2023/029.
ABSTRACT: As livelihoods in Niger still depend to a large extent on agricultural production, shocks related to climate change and insecurity present a threat for the country’s development path and are the main sources of vulnerability for the population in rural areas. This paper uses data from the latest household living standard survey to quantify the effects and interactions of these shocks on household welfare before proposing policy recommendations to enhance the resilience of households and the economy more generally. Our results show that when rainfall decreases by one standard deviation, per capita income falls by 11 percent. Furthermore, the impact of shocks on households depends on their adaptive capacity, which includes sufficient agricultural capital and income diversification. Without concrete adaptation measures, vulnerability to climate change is expected to increase in Niger, and human capital accumulation in poor household is also expected to deteriorate and could lead to a poverty trap.
RECOMMENDED CITATION: Yoro, Diallo. 2022. The Effects of Climate and Conflict Shocks on Household Welfare. IMF Selected Issues Paper SIP/2023/008.
| JEL Classification Numbers: | D12; D13; D74; Q54 |
| Keywords: | Climate Shocks; Conflicts; Welfare; Microeconometrics; Niger |
| Author’s E-Mail Address: | ydiallo2@imf.org |
| JEL Classification Numbers: | D12; D13; D74; Q54 |
| Keywords: | Climate Shocks; Conflicts; Welfare; Microeconometrics; Niger |
| Author’s E-Mail Address: | ydiallo2@imf.org |
Title Page
SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS
The Effects of Climate and Conflict Shocks on Household Welfare
Niger