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The Effects of Climate and Conflict Shocks on Household Welfare: Niger
Author:
Yoro Diallo
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Series:
Selected Issues Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2023: Issue 008
Language:
English
Publication Date:
27 Feb 2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400236068.018
ISBN:
9798400236068
ISSN:
2958-7875
Pages:
21
Keywords:
Climate Shocks; Conflicts; Welfare; Microeconometrics; Niger; conflict shock; household welfare; vulnerability to climate change; impact of shock; income elasticity; Climate change; Income; Consumption
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IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed.
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As livelihoods in Niger still depend to a large extent on agricultural production, shocks related to climate change and insecurity present a threat for the country’s development path and are the main sources of vulnerability for the population in rural areas. This paper uses data from the latest household living standard survey to quantify the effects and interactions of these shocks on household welfare before proposing policy recommendations to enhance the resilience of households and the economy more generally. Our results show that when rainfall decreases by one standard deviation, per capita income falls by 11 percent. Furthermore, the impact of shocks on households depends on their adaptive capacity, which includes sufficient agricultural capital and income diversification. Without concrete adaptation measures, vulnerability to climate change is expected to increase in Niger, and human capital accumulation in poor household is also expected to deteriorate and could lead to a poverty trap.

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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Selected Issues Papers
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2023: Issue 008