Cover Policy Papers
Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & and Review Department
Series:
Policy Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2021: Issue 003
Language:
English
Publication Date:
03 Feb 2021
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513568324.007
ISBN:
9781513568324
ISSN:
2663-3493
Pages:
124
Keywords:
sustainability assessment; debt vulnerability; debt profile indicator; IMF debt conditionality; debt trajectory; GDP ratio; Medium-term debt stabilization prospect; debt fanchart; probability debt; debt projection; debt burden indicator; composite index; Debt sustainability analysis; Debt sustainability; Stress testing; Contingent liabilities; Global; debt coverage; Fiscal stance
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A careful review has revealed significant scope to modernize and better align the MAC DSA with its objectives and the IMF’s lending framework. This note proposes replacing the current framework with a new methodology based on risk assessments at three different horizons. Extensive testing has shown that the proposed framework has much better predictive accuracy than the current one. In addition to predicting sovereign stress, the framework can be used to derive statements about debt stabilization under current policies and about debt sustainability.
Cover Policy Papers
Policy Papers
ISSN:
2663-3493
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund

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